River City Sharps
Panthers +3
The New Orleans Saints appeared to get right last week as they thrashed the visiting Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. The road has not been nearly as kind for these Saints and they find themselves packing their suitcases tonight as they travel to Charlotte for a game with the Carolina Panthers. While we will readily admit that Carolina has been disappointing this season, this would seem to be a pretty good spot for Cam Newton and his Panthers. The Saints are 0-4 on the road this season, lost seven straight regular-season road games and frankly, haven’t looked good in those games. The trends are really against the Saints here as they are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons and Carolina has feasted on weak defensive teams. The Panthers are 13-4 ATS against bad defensive teams (teams that allow 6 yards per play or more) in their last 17 tries. The Carolina defense, which has been the foundation of their success, has been terrible this season, although they did see some significant improvement last week in their heartbreaking loss to Seattle. Their offense seems to be getting healthy again as DeAngelo Williams comes back tonight and Newton seems to be building a better rapport with rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin. Newton has enjoyed some pretty good success against these Saints and actually has six rushing touchdowns against the Saints in six career games. The Saints have allowed almost 32 ppg on the road this season and we would take a look at the Over (although we aren’t playing it), but we think the Panthers play well under the lights. We are giving this one out at Panthers +3, but we HIGHLY SUGGEST you buy the hook if you have the ability. This feels like a close game, kind of a shootout, and possibly a game where the last team with the ball wins. We like the points with the home team, backs to the wall, against a team that has clear issues on the road.
Vegas Butcher
Panthers +3
One big home win for the Saints and the bettors are once again backing this team. Currently, they’re getting close to 70% of bettors’ support. The problem is that the Saints are over-valued. Prior to the season starting, Carolina was listed as a -2.5 home favorite in this game. In addition, they opened at PK and no rose a full 3 points. Let’s not forget, this is a Thursday Night Football game, short week, and the Saints are on the road. This team is 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU on the road this year, while the Panthers are 3-1 ATS at home. Saints have losses @ ATL, @ CLE, @ DAL, and @ DET this year. Three of the four were decided by a combined 6 points, but that’s the point here. With such a bad defense, teams tend to hang with New Orleans, especially at home. Typically on a Thursday Night Football I look to back the home team, who I feel has a strong advantage with not having to travel and a little more time to prepare. With this being a big divisional matchup, both teams knowing each other, and most importantly Carolina catching a full 3-points, this play is automatic from my perspective.
Washington Wizards -4.5
The big factor here is the return of both Nene and DeJuan Blair. Without Frye and Oladipo, Orlando is very dependent on their inside game with Vucevic and Harris as their only dependent long-range weapon is Fournier. This plays into Washington’s hands, who are missing a number of key long-ranger shooters of their own. With Nene and Blair in the middle, along with Gortat, Gooden, and Humphries, Wizards have the bodies to bang in the post and cause issues for this horrible Orlando offense. Magic is coming off a game where they allowed 62 rebounds, 26 offensive boards, and 64 PIP (Points In the Paint). Washington should be able to dominate in a similar fashion today. I know Wiz are on a b2b on the road, but their game last night was at Miami so it’s not like they have to travel far here. Plus this early in the season, b2b’s aren’t as significant.
Los Angeles Clippers -13
You have to tip your cap to Russell Westbrook, who was dynamite last night. He scored 38 points, dished out 6 assists, and went to the FT-line 16 times. Of course without much of a supporting cast, him and the rest of the Thunder ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, got outscored 31 to 12 and lost the game by 17 points. Now they’ll be playing on a b2b, both on the road, and facing a Clippers team that is a real title contender this season. Neither Reggie Jackson nor Jeremy Lamb will suit up for this one, and of course KD will be out as well. Remember the playoff series between these teams last year? The average margin of victory was +0.8 PPG in OKC’s favor. That’s how close all of those games were. Now the Thunder will be without key players in KD and Jackson, as well as Lamb who is expected to take a step forward this year. Clippers have added depth this offseason by bringing in Hawes and Farmar, to go with Crawford and Glen Davis off the bench, and they should have lineup advantages throughout today’s game. In addition, hard to see Westbrook having as good of a game as he had last night. He was facing Lillard, one of the worst defending PG’s in the league. Today he’ll be going up against Chris Paul, one of the better defenders. Tougher matchup, b2b on the road, and a depleted roster for the Thunder. Another DD win for their opponent tonight?
OC Dooley
Georgia Southern -24
While the big news tonight is the return of LeBron James to Cleveland along with a pair of high profile football contests very quietely a developing juggernaut program is being shown on ESPN’s 24 hour college channel. In their initial campaign as an official member of the Sun Belt Conference the Eagles of Georgia Southern (former Division I-AA power) has already broken the league’s all-time single game rush record TWICE. This past Saturday Georgia Southern gained a staggering 613 combined yards on the ground in a 69-31 triumph which was win #5 in a row. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney (24 years at the helm) has already announced his resignation at the conclusion of what has been a very difficult campaign for the Alabama based program which long term had been prosperous. Despite Troy’s 1-7 current record the offshore line in this contest has actually taken a slight drop in the early evening hours and I am taking advantage