Carlos Salazar
Dolphins vs. Bengals
Play: Over 42.5
Carlos likes what's he's seeing this season from the Cincinnati offense scoring 103 points in the last three games alone. They are scoring on just about everyone via the good balance of big play passing as Andy Dalton has 16 tds through the first 8 games of the season. They are also getting good production in the running game. Miami is desperate to get going having lost four games in a row. Look for them to open up the offense with deep passes to Mike Wallace. This one goes over the total with ease.
Dave Cokin
Rice at North Texas
Play: Rice
There’s what I think is pretty fascinating under the radar matchup tonight in CUSA as Rice pays a visit to North Texas. Both the Owls and Mean Green are going to be eligible to go bowling later, but there’s a possible division title at stake tonight.
I think the key to this game is going to be the ability of North Texas to make Rice throw the football. When the Owls are able to crank up the run game, they’re a good offensive team. But if they get stuffed up front and QB McHargue has to make plays, Rice gets in trouble.
North Texas has been tremendous defensing the run in the last couple of games. But those efforts came against a pair of stiffs and this is a clear step up in class. The numbers against good running teams haven’t been nearly as impressive, which bodes well for Rice being able to put their preferred game plan in motion tonight.
Rice has some impressive pass defense efficiency stats, which is big here as they’re facing a QB who doesn’t miss many targets. Derek Thompson is connecting at a stellar 68% rate through the air. But Thompson can also be prone to mistakes as he’s been picked off 10 times this season. If Rice can avoid giving up big plays, I think they’ll have a chance to force an error or two. In a game that figures close, that could be huge.
The quandary here is that I actually have North Texas as the slightly superior team on the overall metrics. But even if that’s the case, that’s an overall ranking and doesn’t factor the specific game into the equation. That’s where I see Rice getting an edge as it looks like they match up pretty well with the Mean Green. It’s hardly a slam dunk, but I like the chances of Rice stealing a close victory tonight, and grabbing more than a FG is enough to get me on the Owls side tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ South Florida Over 53.5: Hard to not see this game hitting at least 55 points. The South Florida defense doesn't give up a ton of yards, but they do allow 30.7 ppg on the year and this Houston offense playing at home on Thursday night will certainly look to put up a bunch of points here. Houston has averaged 44.3 ppg at home and they put up 49 on a tough BYU defense, so they should easily score on the Bulls here. The South Florida offense is not good at all, but the change at QB and getting back RB Marcus Shaw should help them put up some points on a Houston defense that allows 25 ppg and 467.3 ypg at home. This game should top with 60 points.
3 UNIT PLAY
OREGON STATE -4 over USC: I will look to the Beavers in this one. They lost a big shot at showing that they are for real last week with their home game vs Stanford, but the Cardinal won in the end. I expect the Beavers to bounce back here. Their offense is too good to be held down two weeks in a row and the Trojans have shown that they can be scored on, as they allowed 61 points to ASU, and 31 points to Arizona earlier in the year. They did hold the Irish to just 14 points, but ND was using backup Hendrick for most of that one. On offense, the Trojans have been hit hard by injuries and will be missing Lee for this one. They just will not be able to put up enough points to keep this one close. OSU should win by at least 10 here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Arizona State/ Washington State Over 71: I don't see a whole lot of defense in this game. The Cougars defense has been horrid with in the Pac-12 and now they will take on one of the better offenses in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have averaged 45.5 ppg overall and 56.3 ppg in their 3 Pac-12 wins, while the Cougars have allowed 56.3 ppg in their 3 Pac-12 losses. The Cougars are a pass happy team that will throw on just about every down so we will either get many big plays or many clock stoppages from them. On the other side we have a balanced ASU offense that runs as much as it passes, but still they average 332 ypg passing, while the Cougars allow 266 ypg through the air. This game will have a ton of passing and a ton of scoring as we see at least 75 points put up in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Troy/ UL Monroe Over 61: I really feel that the teams can hit 65+ points here. The Troy offense is very good this year and at home they have averaged a solid 44.7 ppg on the year, while the Warhawks have allowed 34.3 ppg on the road. Kolton Browning and the ULM offense has struggled this year, but he did hit 70.4% of his passes for 225 yards vs Georgia State in his last game and in this one he will be taking on the 124th ranked passing defense in the nation. I can see this offense really breaking out vs the Trojans in this one. Neither teams plays good defense, and the offenses should take advantage and put up at least 30 points each in this one. I expect a 37-34 type of game.
Bill Biles
Bengals/Dolphins Over 43
Bengals are coming off a great offensive game last week against the Jets and I expect them to score into the high 20's this game and Miami to put up around 17. I see the Bengals scoring a defensive touchdown. Take the Over in this one.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls -8
Oddsmakers are begging you to take the Knicks with this line, but I'm not falling into the trap. Chicago is a much better team than what they showed in their opener against the Heat, while the Knicks took advantage of a bad Milwaukee team last night. I look for the Bulls defense to dominate this game from the start and Derrick Rose to put on a show after a rough go of things against Miami.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI +3 over Cincinnati
The 6-2 Bengals are on a four game winning streak and look like the cream of the AFC North. They are only 2-2 on the road though and before last week won their games by very small margins. The 3-4 Dolphins have lost their last four games and are just 1-2 at home. The question is if this is a correction game - streaks of five are somewhat rare, either way, and both exist in this game. The Bengals also have a trip to Baltimore after this game which is a much bigger matchup since they can further dominate the division. On paper this should be a decent Bengals win but the two losses at home by the Fins were only by three points or less. This is also the third road game in the last four weeks for the Bengals with a fifth looming next week.
The Fins have only allowed two touchdown passes over their three home games this year and no one passed for more than 269 yards. All combined, Miami has only allowed nine passing scores over seven games and that includes four thrown by Drew Brees in New Orleans. This is a good defense playing a Bengals team that has not had much time to prepare. The same can be said for the Fish but the difference is Miami is at home and they’re the team receiving points. Let’s not forget that the Dolphins built a 17-3 lead in New England last week before faltering in second half. In a good situation and getting points at home, the Dolphins get the call here. Buy low, sell high.
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +143 over PHOENIX
OT included. The Coyotes have won four of their past five games but what’s most surprising is that this team is scoring goals at a higher rate than any team in the West except for Chicago and San Jose. The Coyotes 8-3-2 record has masked the fact that this team is also allowing a lot of goals. In fact in the West, only the Flames and Oilers are allowing more goals than the ‘Yotes and that’s not a strong argument for spotting a price like this one.
This is a rather large overlay on the Predators because of Pekka Rinne’s injury but that’s not enough to deter us from playing them in this good spot. Incidentally, Carter Hutton is 2-1 with a .927 save %, which is the 10th best mark in the game. You would have to go deep into the archives to find the last time the Coyotes were favored by this much over the Predators and frankly, it’s just not warranted. Prior to losing in St. Louis in its last game, Nashville had picked up points in six of its past seven. They are healthy (outside of Rinne of course) and they are rested, having been off since Saturday. Here’s the kicker for this one: Between now and Nov. 15, the Preds will travel nearly 7,000 miles across North America to play seven games in 17 days. It’s a franchise-record road trip in terms of time away from Nashville, as the Predators did have a seven-game trip in 2002-03. It’s the kind of road stretch that could make or break their season and setting the tone in the first game is of the upmost importance.
“I said to the guys that this could be the best trip we’ve ever had based on what we do,” Head Coach Barry Trotz said. “We’ll be making a North American tour. We’ll see every climate, both sides of the country. If you look at it in a positive way versus it being a negative, we’ll be fine. I have no doubts this team can play well on the road.”
Based on the situation and the price, the Preds are most certainly worthy of a play here.
Buffalo +174 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers want to win at home badly but that’s not enough reason to pass up a wager against them at a price this high. Fact is, the Rangers are averaging less than two goals a game, which makes them a huge risk spotting a tag like this. They are also missing key personnel and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is just playing average. The Rangers did not play a single preseason game at home. They opened the season with 10 straight on the road, meaning they’ve been boarding a plane and flying around almost daily for almost seven weeks. After hosting the Canadiens on Monday, they had another road game on Long Island on Tuesday. This is an exhausted and laboring team spotting a huge tag.
One had to be impressed with the Sabres effort against Dallas on Monday. They fell behind 4-1 and instead of quitting they dug down harder, rallied to make it 4-3 and outshot the Stars 9-5 in the third. Despite losing, it was probably Buffalo’s best game of the season and it’s no coincidence that it was Matt Moulson’s debut. A true pro in every sense, Moulson went out there and played his heart out instead of showing disappointment after being traded from one of the NHL’s best lines. Buffalo has been better on the road with two wins in six games and they always seem to play hard in New York. Another effort like the one against Dallas here and the Sabres absolutely have a chance to win.
SPORTS WAGERS
South Florida +19 over HOUSTON
The Cougars are 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the conference. As a five-point pooch at Rutgers last weekend, Houston won 49-14 and that result combined with South Florida’s 34-3 loss to Louisville has the Cougars extremely overvalued here. Houston has had a lot of success against a slew or awful teams. They’ve also had a huge edge in turnovers and field position the entire season, which has also helped to skew their numbers. Contrary to public belief, this is not a dominant Cougars football team. The Cougars have covered nine straight games dating back to last season, but only two of those came as a favorite of more than a field goal and now they’re being asked to lay some serious weight.
The Bulls do not have much appeal but what they do have is a decent defense that can keep them in this game. South Florida will also make a QB change for this game in true freshman Mike White. The return of workhorse RB Marcus Shaw is also significant, as the Bulls could eat up a lot of clock by slowing this game down and allowing Shaw to wear down the Cougars defense, something he’s very capable of. Lastly, the Cougars have a huge game up next week against #23 UCF and for a young and unseasoned club, that game next week will certainly take some focus away from this one. This is not the right time to get on the Cougars bandwagon.
WASHINGTON ST. +11 over Arizona State
Seriously, 11 points? Indeed the Sun Devils are an explosive bunch that has some big wins on their résumé this year but this game is not in the desert. ASU’s QB Taylor Kelly has not come close to thriving on the road like he has at home during his career. The Sun Devils have played just one road game this season and lost by 14 at Stanford. ASU is still likely to score a bunch here but their defense is not capable of preventing the Cougars from scoring and that’s a significant disadvantage on the road when spotting a tag like this one.
The Cougars are so much better than their 4-4 record suggests. They’ve been buried in three of their last four games but those losses occurred against Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford. WSU has an offense capable of matching ASU’s offense yard for yard. Connor Hall has already thrown 18 TD’s and nearly 3000 yards. It’s a distinct possibility that the Cougars get the first TD here and that would give them an 18-point advantage when you include the margin being offered. Give a special teams’ edge to the Cougars, home field and 11 big points with an equally explosive offense and we’ll take it every time.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -7½ over New York
There's no better way to begin a season than by having your best player declare he's always wanted to be a free agent. Carmelo Anthony foreshadowing aside, the Knicks won't have J.R. Smith or Amar'e Stoudemire and that makes the New York spotlight shine just a little bit brighter on Andrea Bargnani, who freezes like a deer in the headlights when the going gets tough. New York blew a 21-point lead at home against Milwaukee last night against a Bucks’ squad that might be unwatchable this season. The Knicks are not improved this season and the oddsmakers know it but offering these enticing points. Don’t bite.
The Bulls are coming off a rather disastrous opening night loss in Miami in a game they were supposed to compete in. They didn’t but that was Derrick Rose’s first game back in a long time and he was not the same. Now that Rose has that game out of the way, expect a different story here. Derrick Rose is everything. If Rose returns to form, the Bulls will be the most improved team in the league. Chicago has assembled the perfect roster around Rose and now they just need the centerpiece to relax on the floor and do what he does best. Expect a big response from both Rose and the rest of the team in their home opener.
Dave Price
North Texas -2.5
North Texas has been tough to beat at home in recent years. In fact, it has won 10 of its last 13 at home and is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four there. The Mean Green should be able to continue their home success tonight against a Rice squad that has struggled to stop the run. Rice ranks 82nd in the country in run defense with 181.9 yards allowed per game, and that's looks to be a big problem for the Owls. You see, North Texas, which averages 157.5 yards per game on the ground, is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS this season when rushing for more than 104 yards. I don't see Rice being able to keep the Mean Green from reaching that mark tonight. Lay the points.
Ross Benjamin
Anaheim Ducks vs Boston Bruins
Play: Anaheim Ducks +115
The Boston Bruins host the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday at the TD Garden with the opening faceoff coming at 7:05 PM ET. According to NHL betting odds the Bruins are a -135 money line home favorite and the total is 5.5. These two clubs have seen 5 of their last 7 meetings in Boston go over the total.
Home Crowd Hangover
There is sure to be some type of emotional letdown today in the city of Boston today after watching their Red Sox win the World Series last night at home. It marked the first time in 95 years that the Red Sox had won a World Championship at historic Fenway Park. The question will be entering tonight’s game will be how much energy will the home town faithful have left to cheer on their beloved Bruins in an early season non-conference game?
Getting Back on the Saddle
The Bruins were defeated 3-2 last night in Pittsburgh which marks the first time this season that they’ve lost 2-games in a row. Boston ran into a Pittsburgh team last night that was playing with a chip on their shoulders after being swept in 4-games of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. On a positive note Jerome Iginla scored his 3rd goal in the last 2-games in last night’s loss. In addition the loss marked the first road defeat of the season for the Bruins who had won their first 4-games of the season in enemy territory. Boston is now 5th in the Atlantic Division just 2-points behind Tampa Bay, Montreal, and Detroit who are all tied for second place. Backup goaltender Chad Johnson is scheduled to get the start tonight for the Bruins.
The Mighty Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are off to a terrific 10-3 start to the season which finds them in second place in the Pacific Division just 2-points behind first place San Jose. This will be the Ducks 5th game of a 7-game road trip that has seen them go 3-1 thus far. Tuesday night they captured their third win in a row with a 3-2 victory at Philadelphia. The Ducks trailed in the game 2-0 at the conclusion of the 1st period. They proceeded to score the last 3-goals of the game with the winner from Kyle Palmieri coming with just 4:09 left in the 3rd period. It was the 2nd goal of the game for Palmieri with both of those coming in the final stanza. The Ducks outshot the Flyers 37-28 which is nothing new this season. The Ducks are 2nd in the NHL averaging 35 shots on goal per game, and have outshot their opponents by an average of 6.5 per game. The Ducks #1 goaltender Jonas Hiller is scheduled to be between the pipes tonight.
Final Analysis
This is an extremely tough spot for the hometown Bruins for a variety of reasons. Boston expended an abundance of emotion and energy in last night’s loss at Pittsburgh. The Ducks enter this contest riding a wave of momentum, and are sure to be up to the challenge of playing one of the best teams in the NHL. In addition the Ducks will have their #1 guy in goal tonight, while the Bruins will rest star goalie Tuukka Rask who played in last night’s loss. My lean is with the red-hot road underdog in this spot.
Jeff Alexander
Louisiana-Monroe +3
The Warhawks are a reliable 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, and they have been even more valuable on the road in tonight's specific spot. ULM is 9-1 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons if it played at home last game. It is also on a perfect 7-0 ATS run as a road underdog of 3 points or less. It has won these 7 contests by an average of 12.8 points. Bet the Warhawks.
NHL Predictions
Phoenix Coyotes -155
The Predators enter this game 6-5-1 on the season, although they are just 2-3 at home. Phoenix is 8-3-2 on the year, and they are one of the best home teams early in the season going 5-0-1 at home so far. The Predators have been off since Saturday, which was a 6-1 loss at home vs St Louis. They've dropped 2 of their last 3 scoring just 4 goals over those three games. The Coyotes beat the Kings 3-1 on Tuesday which was their 4th win in their last 5 games. They've scored 21 goals over those 5 games, which is 4.2 goals per game. Phoenix now ranks T4 in the NHL with 3.31 goals per game, while the Predators sit in 27th with just 1.92 goals per game. Note that dating back to last season the Preds are just 6-21 in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record, 6-22 in their last 28 road games, and 1-7 in their last 8 following a loss of 3+ goals. The Coyotes are 4-0 in their last 4 home games and have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with Nashville and 4 straight meetings in Phoenix. With Phoenix playing so well at home this year and Mike Smith expected to start again tonight I will go ahead and lay the chalk on the Coyotes at home.
Andre Gomes
Golden State Warriors +6.5 & Over 204.5
The Clippers got crushed on the fourth quarter of their opening game against the Lakers. Of course the main reason for that was their poor defense, something that Doc Rivers immediately mentioned after the game.
"I thought we broke down a lot defensively" Doc Rivers said. "All the things we've worked on that we do in the drill, then when the lights came on, we didn't do them and they took advantage of them."
So, the key question for this game is if the Clippers will be able to adjust defensively with just one practice in the middle between games. I believe that's highly unlikely and I really think that the Clippers will continue to struggle on defense on their following games. Doc Rivers is trying to implement the same defensive system that he used in Boston, a system that had Kevin Garnett as the key defensive player, who was amazing on team help defensive coverage. That role in LA has to be performed by Blake Griffin, who lacks Garnett's excellent defensive skills (so far). Worse than that, the Clippers have J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley on the backcourt, two players who aren't explosive enough on closing out on the opposing shooters. This is why the Lakers shot 14-29 3pts against them and that they will get an even tougher task tonight against the team that was #1 on 3pts% last season. Besides that, the Warriors showed already yesterday that they have a great offensive flow and two of the best shooters in the league in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors absolutely crushed the Lakers last night and so, they were able to rest players for today. This was vital for them, as their lack of depth is the team's main weakness, especially with Harrison Barnes injured.
On the other hand, the Clippers' offense looked good against the Lakers, with a good ball movement (27 assists) and 19 fast break points. Their only problem was the poor 13-23 FT, with Blake Griffin struggling with 3-10 FT! Also Chris Paul didn't impress a lot with 5-13 FG, something weird as he had an excellent offensive matchup in that game. The Clippers are still struggling on their second unit especially due to the lack of a reliable big man. In fact, from the bench, Ryan Hollins was the only frontcourt player that entered the court and only for four minutes! Mark Jackson will possibly save Andre Iguodala to defend Chris Paul on the fourth quarter, something that could make Paul struggle a bit, especially as the Clippers don't have a perimeter defensive stopped like Eric Bledsoe last season to hide Chris Paul from having to defend Curry or Klay.
I expect a close and offensive minded contest in here, with both teams showing more efficiency on offense than on defense. I believe the Warriors are being clearly underrated in here as well and so, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here.
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Houston Cougars as the home favorite over the USF Bulls.
Not too much thought needed here, as this is a Halloween rout tonight in Houston.
The Cougars are averaging nearly 40 points per game for the season, and they have covered 9 in a row against the spread. The Bulls have failed to score an offensive touchdown in their last 12 quarters of football, and are just 2-5 under first year coach Willie Taggart this season.
Houston has a big game with conference-rival Central Florida up next on November 9th, but the Cougars own a superior 15-3-1 home spread mark when installed as the favorite, and they own too much firepower for a USF bunch that doesn't even average two touchdowns a game this year.
Cougars roar.
4♦ HOUSTON