Craig Davis
Thursday free play winner in the NBA on the Clippers over the Warriors.
Honestly, it's so early in the NBA season that it's tough to handicap these games from a normal handicapping standpoint.
You have to look for advantages in the number, and I think I've found one in this game.
Here's what I see... I see a Golden State team that pummeled the Lakers last night, the same Lakers team that beat up the Clippers on opening night.
So what am I reading and hearing today? I'm hearing all about how the Warriors will pound the Clippers and how the Clips are overrated. Seriously??? After one game?
They will be fine once Doc Rivers gets his gameplan into action, and it could start as early as tonight.
Why would Vegas list the Clips as 6- to 7-point favorites after what happened the first two nights if they weren't encouraging Warrior money?
Take the Clippers to win and cover at home as your free play of the day.
2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Scott Delaney
My free play for Thursday night is going to be a bit of a shocker, perhaps, as I like the Under in the Arizona State-Washington State contest. The Pac 12 tends to play high with plenty of West Coast offensive units, but this total in the 70s is nonsense.
There is far too much at stake for these two teams to let down tonight, and basically allow one another to run the score up. On the contrary, I think we're actually going to see a physical game that may turn into a contest of who can hold the ball longer.
Arizona State needs just one win to become bowl eligible while Washington State needs two. Wazzou is out to post a third Pac-12 win for the first time since 2007, and the Devils are looking for their first road win of the season.
On paper, I know, it looks as if we could have a monster-scoring game. After all, Arizona State's high-powered offense ranks sixth in Division I FBS with an average of 45.4 points per game, and tonight takes a crack at a WSU defense that allows nearly 30 ppg. Nevertheless, this one is in Pullman, and with the teams coming off bye weeks, I think the Cougars might be well-prepared defensively.
The same can be said for ASU's stop unit, which is forcing opponents into an average of 6.7 three-and-out drives per game, a stat that ranks fourth nationally. And after facing physical teams like Wisconsin, Stanford, Notre Dame and Washington in a little over a month, the Devils are battle-tested for games like this.
Trust me, all the stats dictate a high-scoring game and there's no doubt these are two talented offensive units that can put points on the board, but when everything points in one direction, the general rule of thumb is to go the other way.
Take the Under here.
5♦ Arizona State/Washington State UNDER
Brad Wilton
Free play for this Thursday night is the Rice Owls plus the points at North Texas.
Hot vs. hot tonight, as the Owls stand at 6-2 while the Mean Green are 5-3.
Have to side with the visiting dogs here, as Rice has covered 5 of their last 7 games when listed as the true road underdog, and they are 9-3-1 overall when they are catching points from the oddsmakers!
North Texas has made their bones this season in forcing turnovers, as they have forced 25 of them thus far, but Rice has been very good in protecting the football this season with Taylor McHargue doing solid work under center this season.
On the flip side, North Texas signal-caller Derek Thompson has more picks (11) than TD passes (10) this year, so look for an untimely turnover to swing the balance of this crucial Conference USA game tonight in Denton.
Hoot, hoot, the Owls plus the points to cover another!
2♦ RICE
Brett Atkins
My free winner for Thursday night is on a college football total, as I like the Sun Belt battle between Troy and UL Monroe to stay low, and fall under the posted total.
Troy is back at home after last week’s upset of Western Kentucky, while UL-Monroe heads east after pulling away as double-digit ‘chalk’ against Georgia State. Both teams will be intensifying things defensively in this one, especially the Trojans, who allowed 532 total yards to the Hilltoppers, who cashed in for a whopping 29 first downs. This was an area of concern for the Trojans to improve on, and knowing the Warhawks are a physical bunch, Troy will have no choice but to step its game up on D.
Monroe is going to look to control the line of scrimmage on offense, with bruising running back Centarius Donald, who broke the century mark for the first time his senior season, rumbling for 126 yards on just eight carries.
Some might say the Warhawks are a viable underdog, which means a slower pace and lower-scoring game. After all, Monroe is on low-scoring runs of 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in the month of October and 4-0 overall.
This total is a bit high, as I think they're more likely to score in the 52-point range.
2♦ Troy/UL Monroe UNDER
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati/ Miami Over 43: The Miami defense has some hole, especially vs the pass and they will be taking on a hot QB in Andy Dalton. who has thrown for 1034 yards and 11 TD's in his last 3 games. Miami has allowed 23.9 ppg on the year and have allowed at least 23 points in each of their last 5 games. The Fish have allowed 24 ppg at home, with their home games putting up 47.3 ppg. The Miami offense is not great, but at home they do average 23.7 ppg, while the Bengals have allowed 22.6 ppg on the road. Thursday non-div games have gone a perfect 9-0 to teh Over in last 2 years when the OU line is < 49 pts, while all road favs of less than 5 playing off a 40+ point win have gone 10-0 to the over since 1991. Stats and trends support this play and I will roll will them both. I look for at least 48 points scored in this one.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON STATE (+11) over Arizona State
We'll play the passing home underdog here. Washington State continues to be undervalued in the betting markets, going 6-2 against the spread this season, including 2-0 as an underdog in this range. Yes, the high-flying Arizona State offense has been piling up points, but tonight it will have to deal with some cold and windy conditions it is not used to. The last time ASU QB Taylor Kelly played in a cold-weather game he had one of the worst outings of his career, completing 22 of 41 passes vs. Oregon State for 153 yards. ASU hasn't beaten a Pacific Northwest team on the road since 2010 and is 2-10 away from home in November and December during that span. The Cougars are averaging 38 points per game at home and with a week off to lick its wounds after getting drilled by Oregon two weeks ago, they'll be rested and ready for tonight's game. Take the points.
Brady Kannon
Miami Dolphins +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are on quite a roll, having won 4-straight. Meanwhile, The Dolphins, after having started the year 3-and-0, have lost 4-straight SUATS. But Miami has been improved since the bye, outstatting their last two opponents. The numbers are pretty close in this match up. While Cincinnati's defense is the superior of the two, The Fish are very close in yards given up per play and actually get out on 3rd down more often than The Bengals stop unit does. Miami has been tested with a slightly more difficult schedule than that of The Bengals and while we are typically not a big fan of The Dolphins as a favorite, here we are getting a field goal against a non-division opponent, a role in which they succeed at a 9-and-1 ATS clip. Even better, Miami is 7-and-0 ATS off of a loss when going out of division against a team that has won 3-straight. We also like the fact that Cincinnati is coming off of such a convincing, high scoring victory as road teams off of a win of 40-or more points are just 1-and-8 ATS in the next game. What this all adds up to is the line being pushed in The Bengals favor, given their recent run, and away from Miami given their recent losses, albeit under the radar, the club is playing better. Finally, more reason to like the situation for The Dolphins as opposed to that of The Bengals is the fact that Cincinnati goes back in division to face the defending SuperBowl Champ Ravens next week and then into a revenge game with Cleveland the following week. With The Cats set up to fall off a notch, we're going to back a solid team, at home, getting points, ready to right the ship on National TV.
Wunderdog
Arizona State at Washington State
Pick: Washington State +11
Mike Leach hasn't quite gotten this Washington State Cougars program up to where he'd like it to be, but progress has been made. The Cougars are a respectable 4-4, with all four losses coming to teams ranked in the top 32 in the country, including three loss vs. the top 11. Arizona enters at 5-2, but they stole a win on a horrible call vs. Wisconsin. And, they have been vulnerable against good offenses, so I expect a lot of scoring here. The Sun Devils' game has not translated to field turf of late as they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six playing on it, and is also a product of the fact that they do not seem to travel well at 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. Washington State has shown the ability to shake off an ugly loss to go 6-0 ATS in their last six after losing by 20 points or more. Leach is 33-17 ATS in his career after a loss and he has had two weeks to prepare for this one and he will keep it close.
The Real Animal
UL-Monroe / Troy Over 60.5
Granted the opponent was Georgia State but maybe UL-Monroe QB Kolton Browning is back in form. He was a surprise starter last week and really revitalized the Warhawk offense throwing four touchdown passes. Troy is #99 in points allowed this year at 32.8 points per game. But certainly nothing wrong with the Trojan offense. Troy is #16 behind senior QB Corey Robinson, who is the active leader right now in NCAA career passing yards. Plus he has thrown 77 career touchdown passes. Troy has scored 32 or more points in 6/7 games this year. Troy is 32-18 ‘OVER’ following a spread win under Coach Blakeney. Troy barely went ‘UNDER’ 62 in their last game against Western Kentucky. The final was 32-26 with a total of 62. That game featured 705 passing yards and 930 total yards. There was only eight points scored in the entire fourth quarter. Prior to that contest, Troy had played ‘OVER’ in all six games this year. I’ll go ‘OVER’ 60 ½ tonight and anticipate a shootout between Robinson and Browning. Troy put up 32 points at Western Kentucky in their last game. UL-Monroe recently yielded 31 points and 530 total yards to the Hilltoppers at home..
OC Dooley
Arizona St / Washington St Over 70.5
Both sides have had extra time to prepare for what should be an entertaining evening when considering that Arizona State (53 points scored) and Washington State (62 points allowed) are coming off very high scoring contests. In the case of the visiting Sun Devils they are coming off a vicious stretch of facing four different “physical” foes that excel on the defensive side of the football including Wisconsin, Stanford and Notre Dame. Courtesy of a bye-week Arizona State actually went an entire seven-day stretch WITHOUT suiting up in pads during practice which will have them refreshed coming into this particular contest against a struggling stop-unit. During a current 1-3 skid Washington State’s defense in the setbacks has given up on average a whopping 56 points per pop. While the Cougars have defensive deficiencies their head coach is the same Mike Leach who for years directed the high-octane offense at Texas Tech which was known as the “air raid”. Here is an outstanding 85-PERCENT SYSTEM (29-5 the past five years with a high total of 70 points or more) that plays hot teams like Arizona State who have won at least 4 times in a six-game span OVER the total, in weeks 10-through-13 of the campaign. My research also indicates that in the past three years after a game where the defense was shredded allowing at least 325 pass yards in the air, Washington State is an incredible “9-0” OVER the spot in the ensuing contest.