Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 6

Denver Money

Pittsburgh / Vancouver Under 5.5

Jim Feist

Western Kentucky vs Mid Tennessee St
Play: Under

Western Kentucky (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) started with a 14-3 loss to Kentucky, but it’s been downhill from there, scoring 14 points each in loses to Navy and Indiana State. They run a West Coast offense behind junior QB Kawaun Jakes (3 TDs, 8 INTs) but are averaging 13.8 ppg. The under is 5-1 in the Hilltoppers last 6 conference games, 4-1 under the total in their last 5 games as an underdog and 10-4 under in the Hilltoppers last 14 games following a ATS win. And the under is 6-2 in Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders last 8 games following an ATS loss. Play Middle Tennessee State/Western Kentucky Under the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

NHL Futures

Buffalo +160 to win division

Buffalo +16-1 to win Stanley Cup

After finishing third in the division last season, the Sabres put the money of new owner Terry Pegula to work right away and acquired Christian Ehrhoff, Ville Leino and Robyn Regehr. On defense, every GM in the league would swap their core of defensemen for the Sabres core in a heartbeat. Buffalo is loaded with swift and talented puck-moving D-men that can also play defense. Aside from Regehr and Erhoff, Buffalo has Tyler Myers, Jordan Leopold, Andrej Sekera, Mike Weber and a potential big sleeper in Marc Andre Gragnani (for all you fantasy players, grab this guy right now). Grganani came up late last season and had seven points in seven playoff games. He’s also looked terrific in preseason. Up front, the Sabres are also loaded with talent. It's fair to say that Tyler Ennis had his breakout season last year when he put up 20 goals and 29 assists in his first full season with the Sabres. He’s not done. The potential of a line centered by Leino with Ennis and Drew Stafford on the wings is an exciting one and Ennis could get 30 and so could his line-mates. Adam Luke looks good. Derek Roy is healthy and wickedly talented. Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Nathan Gerbe, Paul Gaustad and Patrick Kaleta may not be household names but they’re all front-line NHL players that have grit, desire and big talent. Oh, and there’s Ryan Miller, perhaps the best goaltender in the league. With a new owner that clearly stated he’ll do whatever it takes to win, coach Lindy Ruff and every player comes into this season feeling better than ever. The Sabres will contend. The only threat in the division is Boston. The Canadiens will need a perfect season and everything to go right to even come close to Buffalo and they got that last year. You can forget about Toronto and Ottawa. As for the Bruins, there’s the inevitable Cup hangover and every team will be gunning for them, making the season even tougher. Tim Thomas has no shot of repeating last year’s numbers because he’s just not that good. The Sabres will definitely contend for the division and they may even run away with it. With that said, we’ll play them to win the Division and to win the Cup. Play: Buffalo +160 to win Division (Risking 4 units). Play: Buffalo +1600 to win Cup (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders over 33½ wins

The Islanders had 30 wins a season ago and that’s with no goaltending stability, no Mark Streit, no Kyle Okposo and more than a few rookies in and out of the line-up all year. This season the Islanders will have Evgeni Nabokov in net with Al Montoya backing him or Rick DiPietro. Montoya is rock solid while DiPietro is a health risk that isn’t likely to get much playingh time. In other words, the goaltending will be stronger. The Islanders lost a league-high 13 games in OT last season and chances are good they’ll improve upon that. John Tavares enters his third year and he’s the real deal. Let’s not forget he had 29 goals last season and is working on all elements of his game. On a team with deceptive talent, Tavares is poised to step completely from the shadows. Matt Moulson (33 goals) was one of five players who had 20 goals for the Isles last season. Throw in Josh Bailey, who just signed a new deal and has 20-goal potential, Michael Grabner, (Grabner scored 26 goals in the final 44 games and ended up with 34), P.A. Parenteau, John Tavares, Okposo and a swift puck-moving D-man in Streit and the Isles could be on the verge of becoming more than a little explosive. Offense will not be a problem. You might all remember the Phoenix Coyotes from two seasons ago entering the season on the verge of moving to another city. The Coyotes played with a chip on their shoulder all year with an “us against the world” attitude and had a great year. The Islanders are virtually in that same position, as there is no new arena and a threat to move the team. This is a young, dangerous, talented and confident group that is on the verge of something good. Asking them to win four more games than last year is not a stretch at all and it says here the Islanders are this year’s surprise team. Get on this one early. Play: N.Y. Islanders over 33½ (Risking 3.15 units to win 3).

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees fit a rare system that plays on all home teams off a road favored win in a game where the total was 10 or higher, vs an opponent that is off a home dog loss. This system has not lost the last 8+ years. The Yankees average 5.8 runs per game here at the stadium and have I. Nova on the mound here tonight. Nova is 16-3 this season and his ERA is slightly over 2 in his last 4 starts. On Saturday he out pitched Detroit Starter D. Fister, surrendering just 2 runs and 4 hits in 6+ innings of work. Fister who has been outstanding all season keeping hitters off balance with an array of off speed pitches and a Fast ball with deceptive velocity, struggled here on Saturday night allowing 6 runs and 7 hits in just over 4 innings. In a prior start here Fister was solid going 7 innings allowing just 3 runs. He will have to duplicate that performance to keep the Tigers in the game here tonight. The Yankees have won 9 of the 12 previous meeting here at the Stadium and have a solid edge in what is a rested bullpen. In fact the Yankees 2.93 home bullpen era is a full run better than The Tigers road bullpen era at 3.93. The Yankees have better hitting, particularly at the bottom of the lineup. The Yankees have more big game experience and it appears that Alex Rodriguez may be coming out of his slump as he had a big sacrifice fly and 2 subsequent hits in the 10-1 Blowout win in game four. The Yankees arrive here with the momentum and are the better team with more of the intangibles in their favor. Look for the Yankees to get the win and Move on to the AL Championship series with Texas.

EZWINNERS

Oregon Ducks -24

This line just seems to be begging for California money, but I like the Quack Attack to win this one big. Oregon was lucky to escape Berkley last season with a 15-13 win, but I don't give this years Golden Bears defense much of a chance to slow down this Oregon offense that is rolling once again. California allowed 409 yards on Saturday in a 31-23 loss to the Washington Huskies. Two weeks ago, the Bears allowed Colorado to put up 582 yards of offense en route to a 36-33 California win. Against an Oregon team that has scored at least 56 points in each of their three games since their opening loss to LSU I expect the Cal defense to get killed. The Ducks offense has incredible numbers as they are averaging 7.4 yards per rush and 533 yards per game. The fast paced offense will wear out the Golden Bears defense and Cal does not have enough on the offensive side to match scores. Even faking injuries will not help to slow down this Oregon offense. Cal is just 7-19 against the spread in their last twenty six road games. Lay the points.

JR O'Donnell

NY Yankees -159

The Oster rolling @ 8 pm and this National Tv Battle goes to the Nasty Yanks. The Tigers will bring Doug Fister for Detroit (2nd yr) is 11-13, 2.83 ERa (4th AL) with a 1.06 WHIP (6th AL). He had a tough first outing in this series, taking over being rocked for "7" hits, "6" runs in 4.2 innings, and taking the loss. His record we believe is deceiving, as he has been good against a bad team, and bad against a good. He went 7-0, .65 ERA in the final "8" starts against teams that had a .445 winning percentage. The other game the TB Rays pounded Fister hard.

On the other hand, rookie sensation Ivan Nova is 16-4, 3.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP for the Yanks. He beat the Tigers impressively in game "1" after taking over for C.C., going 6.1 innings, 4 hits and "2" earned runs. With Nova on the mound NY is 19-8 this year in all his starts, second in the AL only to Verlander who is 25-9. Nova was 12-0 with a 3.25 ERA in his last "16" starts, even though he was sent to the minors for a short stint in July when Phil Hughes came of the DL. One other plus is that Mariano Rivera is available for "2" innings! Yankees are 9-1 in Novas last 10 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff road games

SAFEST WAGERING

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee St
Play: Western Kentucky + 11.5

The Hilltoppers have arguably been one of the worst BCS teams the last 5 years. They've lost to some very weak programs. Although banged up like many other teams, they do have a little talent now. Running back, Robby Rainey, actually has a shot at playing on Sundays. If he goes down, WKU is in trouble. 5 of their 7 losses at this level, have been by a combined 18 points. They have either led or been tied entering the 4th quarter in 7 of their last 9 games, but are averaging almost 4 turnovers per contest. The Blue Raiders 2 best defensive linemen are injured. They rank high in overall offensive and defensive stats, but these figures were obtained facing bad competition and have inflated the line. Take The Western Kentucky Hilltopers + 11.5

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

OREGON -23.5 over California: After that opening loss to the LSU Tigers, Oregon has come back to go 3-0 and have outscored their opponents by 41 ppg. The Ducks are ranked 6th in total offense, 6th in rushing and 1st in points scored and they have won 18 in a row at home and have scored 49.5 ppg in the process, while in their last 9 conference games at home they have outscored their opponents by 29.2 ppg. Cal comes into this one at 3-1 on the year, but they have not been that impressive in doing so. In the opener they struggled for much of the game vs Fresno State, then needed OT before finally beating Colorado and while they did crush FCS foe Presbyterian, they followed that up by with a bad loss to Washington last week, in which they able to put up just 23 points on one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Cal defense as been pretty solid this year, but have yet to face an offense the caliber of the Ducks. Oregon is just in a different class than the Bears right now and should have no problems winning this one by 24+ points, especially after they were really held in check vs Bears last year. I look for at least a 4 TD win by the Ducks here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any favorites of 21.5 to 31 points if they 6.2 yards per play or greater on the year and they gained 450+ yards in BB games and are up against a defense that allows 4.6 to 5.8 ypp. This system has gone a powerful 36-9 (80%) since 1992.

2 UNIT PLAY

Oregon/ California Over 65: Last year these teams put up just 28 point, but I have a feeling that tonight's game will be a whole lot different. The Ducks truly love playing at home as they have averaged 49.5 ppg in their last 18 games at Autzen Stadium, including 49 ppg in their last 10 Conference home games. This year this offense put up just 20 points vs a tough LSU defense in the opener, but they have responded by scoring 60.3 ppg in their 3 games since. This offense now leads the nation in scoring at 52 ppg and they are 6th in the nation in rushing. The Cal defense does ranked 9th vs the run but none of the teams they have faced are currently ranked higher than 58th in rushing on the year. The Call defense will have problems stopping this rushing attack tonight and then that will open up the Duck air attack to go vs a Cal defense that can be thrown on. The Oregon defense has struggled some allowing 24.5 ppg and 389 ypg thus far and could have a few problems slowing down a Cal offense that has averaged 39.5 ppg so far. The Duck offense should be good for about 48, while Cal should chip in with about 20. This one goes over late but we still get there.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -160

The New York Yankees forced a Game 5 after a 10-1 victory over Detroit in Game 4. I like their chances of advancing to the ALCS tonight with a win over the Tigers behind Ivan Nova. The Yankees clearly have the better, more reliable starter on the mound in this one folks.

Nova led major league rookies in wins with a 16-3 record and 3.66 ERA. In his postseason debut, he took over for C.C. Sabathia in the completion of Game 1 and pitched shutout ball until the ninth inning of the Yankees' 9-3 win. Nova went 1-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his final three starts of the regular season, and he has simply picked up right where he left off in the postseason.

Doug Fister gave up six runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings after replacing Justin Verlander in the opener. Fister is 1-3 with a 7.15 ERA in four career outings against New York. He has given up 18 earned runs and 5 home runs in 22 2/3 innings.

Detroit is 3-16 in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. New York is 22-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season. The Yankees are 6-0 in Nova's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. New York is 17-5 in their last 22 playoff games as a favorite. Bet the Yankees Thursday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Cal/Oregon UNDER 66

The Bears and Ducks haven't combined for more than 55 points in any of the last four meetings. We saw just 28 total points scored in last year's meeting at Cal as the Bears were able to hold LaMichael James in check. He rushed for a season-worst 3.1 yards per carry in that game and failed to reach the end zone for the only time in his last 16 games. Yards don't figure to come easy for James this evening against a Cal stop unit that ranks 9th in the nation with 78.3 rushing yards allowed per game. Under coach Tedford, Cal is 25-13 under in road conference games. We have seen an average of just 51.1 total points scored in these contests. Recently, the under is 5-2 in the Golden Bears' last 7 conference games. These two have played to the under in the last four meetings overall and each of the last five meetings in Oregon. We'll take the under.

Steve Janus

Western Kentucky/Middle Tenn St OVER 53.5

While this game isn't even on the radar compared to the Cal/Oregon game, I believe there is money to be made on the total. Middle Tennessee St brings a high-powered offensive attack that is averaging 29.5 ppg. The Blue Raiders are averaging 160.3 ypg on the ground and another 305.0 ypg through the air. They face a Western Kentucky defense that has given up 40 points to Navy and 44 to Indiana State. Middle Tennessee should have no problem scoring at least 30 points in this game.

What makes the over such a strong play tonight is how bad the Blue Raiders are on the defensive side of the ball. Middle Tennessee is giving up 219.8 ypg on the ground and another 252.8 ypg in the passing game. When you look at Western Kentucky's offense that scores just 13.7 ppg, you likely think the under is strong play. However, we are taking about a Blue Raider defense that allowed Memphis to step on their field and score 31 points! Memphis had scored just 44 points in their previous 4 games combined. The Tigers finished that game with 395 yards of total offense, and even with those numbers they are still averaging just 297 total yards a game.

Since 1992 the OVER is 24-6 in games in which the Blue Raiders score at least 28 points. The average score in those games reached a total of 65.9 points. BET THE OVER!

Black Widow

1* on Tigers/Yankees OVER 9

Look for the bats to come out to play tonight in Game 5 of the ALDS. Both Ivan Nova and Doug Fister go at it again after taking over for C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander in the second inning of the suspended Game 1. The Yankees won that game 9-3, largely due to a poor outing from Fister, who gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings. In fact, Fister is now 1-3 with a 7.15 ERA lifetime versus New York. Nova is having a solid rookie season overall, but he has not fared all that well at Yankee Stadium this year. Nova sports a 4.11 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in 14 home starts in 2011. New York is hitting .273 and scoring 5.8 runs/game at home this year in their batter-friendly new stadium. The Tigers are hitting .300 and scoring 6.0 runs/game over their last seven contests. The Yankees are 57-33 OVER (+22.5 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 35-20 OVER (+14.3 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. Take the OVER 9 runs here.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +138 over BOSTON

Everyone will be gunning for the Bruins this year and the Flyers will be leading the charge, as they were swept in last year's playoffs by these Bruins. Boston is tough but there's always the inevitable Stanley Cup hangover and the mental attitude of “we don't have to prove anything”. Boston has virtually the same team as last year with only Michael Ryder, Tomas Kaberle and Mark Recchi leaving. The Bruins did add Joe Corvo, who is one year too late. Tim Thomas had a miraculous year but don't expect that again. This guy is lucky and very beatable and we love the fact that he's starting tonight. Philly has plenty to prove and they did a complete overhaul. The Flyers acquired Ilya Bryzgalov to handle its always problematic goaltending issues. Not sure if he's the answer but starting on the road is a good thing. The Flyers have two guys in James Van Riemsdyk and Glaude Giroux that are on the verge of becoming one of the deadliest duo's in the league. They added more strength up front, they signed Jaromir Jagr and picked up Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek and Brayden Schenn in the Carter/Richards deal. No team altered its roster as radically as the Flyers did this offseason, and although the statistical projections penalize Philly for offloading Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, they're a new team with a new look and absolutely have a great shot to win its opener. Play Philadelphia +138 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +138 over VANCOUVER

Let's forget about Sidney Crosby for a moment. If and when he comes back the Pens will be that much better. For now, he's not playing. The Pens are still strong at center with Evgeni Malkin, Mark Letustu and Jordan Staal. James Neal could have a huge year. On defense, the Penguins can move the puck out better than anyone. This team is loaded with talent behind the blueline and up front they're solid too. The Canucks are always good. They really didn't make too many changes in the off-season but one really has to wonder how they'll be affected by last year's miss. The Canucks' final games last season raised plenty of questions about the team's toughness, both mental and otherwise and we'll have to see how they come out of the gate before we'll really know. What we do know is that the Penguins will be one of the toughest outs all year and after this game and unless something goes terribly wrong, you won't a tag like this one many times on them for the remainder of the year. Penguins don't have many weaknesses. Play Pittsburgh +138 (Risking 2 units).

Stan Lisowski

NY Yankees

Bombers have won 10 of Nova's 14 home starts while Detroit has faltered in Fister rorad outings, dropping 11 of 16. Playoff pitching rematches are typically won again by the victor of the first matchup.