Pucking Hockey
Philadelphia Flyers vs Boston Bruins Over 5.5
To start off the 2011-2012 NHL Season here at Pucking Hockey we will be breaking down the first game of the season between the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins.
In the 2010 NHL playoffs, the Bruins found themselves up 3-0 in the semi finals of the Stanley Cup Finals against the Philadelphia Flyers. But suddenly the Bruins choked, and allowed the Flyers to win the series 4-3, which eventually led the Flyers to the Stanley Cup finals, but falling short to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Now in the 2011 NHL playoffs, the Bruins once again had to face the Flyers in the semi finals of the Stanley Cup Finals, but this time they seeked revenge, and conquered. They completely embarrassed the Flyers, out hitting them, out shooting, out scoring, pretty much dominating them, and sweeping the Flyers in four games.
One of the main problems the Flyers lack last year in the playoffs was goaltending, and leadership. But with many off season moves, the Flyers are a new team with the same goal.
Ilya Bryzgalov will start for the Flyers and Tim Thomas will be in net for the Bruins.
Between the two goalies, the first thing that comes to mind is, a very low scoring game, but there is a reason why bookmakers set the line at 5.5 and not 5 total goals in the game. They expect, just like we do here at Pucking Hockey, a high scoring game or even a tight scoring game, with a late empty net goal to push the game over 5.5 total goals.
The first game between the two rivals, who have significant history of over’s. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston. You have no choice but to take the over 5.5 total goals in this game. Even if the Bruins suffer a Stanley Cup hangover and fail to produce at least two goals, the Flyers will have revenge in their blood seeking at least 6 goals themselves.
5* Philadelphia Flyers vs Boston Bruins Over 5.5
Other picks for the day.
1* Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5
1* Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vancouver Canucks OVER 5.5
Dave Price
1 Unit on Western Kentucky/MTSU UNDER 54.5
We saw just 53 total points scored in last year's meeting, and I'm expecting these two to score even fewer points this year. We can't expect much from a WKU offense that ranks 117th in the nation with 13.8 ppg. However, I do expect the Hilltopper defense to have success in slowing down the Blue Raiders. WKU returns 8 starters from a stop unit that ranked 3rd in the Sun Belt with 380.2 yards allowed per game last season. The Hilltoppers held MTSU to only 208 yards in last year's matchup. The Under is 5-1 in the Hilltoppers' last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater and 5-1 in their last 6 conference games. We'll take the Under.
Carolina Sports
California vs. Oregon
Play: California +24
This is a national spotlight game for Oregon and still has slim hopes of getting to the BCS Title game. Since the opening week loss to LSU, the Ducks have pounded teams. They need to continue to put up big numbers to keep the pollsters happy. California is a good team and their defense has been pretty good allowing only 5.1-yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.3 yppl. However, we need to throw out the Presbyterian game because those stats do not count. Cal has yet to face an offense like Oregon and Oregon is motivated and hungry to bury teams the rest of the year. Several situations and systems favor Oregon in this game, however our ratings have the Ducks -22.5 and computer is calling for a 21-point win. We will make that call. Oregon 44-23
Doug Upstone
Western Kentucky
In the Sun Belt Conference tonight, let's give Western Kentucky a look since football bettors have been piling up the points on them. Play On road teams like WKU after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more total points in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three contests. (33-9 ATS the L5Y)
West Capper
Tigers/Yankees Under 9.5
Game 5’s are typically bullpen games, which would give the edge to the Yankees tonight. Doug Fister is 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 75 innings since being traded from the Mariners, and Ivan Nova is 9-0 with a 3.15 ERA in 80 innings since being recalled from Triple-AAA. Both of these pitchers are unflappable and should throw well tonight in this big situation.
Since this will be a bullpen game, I’ll focus mostly on the pens. Benoit and Valverde are one of the best 1-2 combos in all of baseball, so I think Jim Leyland would like to go Fister and then Phil Coke for a lefty matchup before turning the game over to Benoit and Valverde in the 6th or 7th. If the Tigers can get the lead to Benoit and Valverde then you have to like their chances of winning game 5. The Yankees fans should be all over Valverde from the time he walks down to the bullpen for his comments, so that should be interesting.
The Yankees bullpen is setup even better than the Tigers tonight. Nova has really been the best pitcher in this entire series (with his dynamic performance in the suspended game) and he’s not afraid of this big situation. The kid their call “Super Nova” has great stuff, but the X factor is Mariano Rivera. He has thrown 14 pitches in 10 days, so you can definitely count on the all-time saves leader to throw 2-3 innings tonight. A lot of people are making a big deal that CC Sabathia is available in the bullpen tonight, but I don’t see him giving much value to the Yankees unless it’s in an extra innings situation or if he comes in to face 1-2 Tiger hitters (Tigers catcher Avila for the lefty-lefty matchup or to make Martinez hit right-handed).
When you look at this series, everything changed in game 4 when Granderson made the diving catch in the 1st. If he doesn’t come up with that huge play, Don Kelly probably had an inside-the-park grand slam and Burnett would’ve been a mess for the Yankees. If the Yankees win this series, that one single play will be looked at as the key play that turned the series.”
In a situation like tonight with all hands on deck and good bullpens, I definitely like the under. Add to the fact that it's the Tigers-Yankees and their star filled lineups, the public is heavily on the Yankees and over. The casual fan looks at this game and thinks because it's not Sabathia vs Verlander, that these two relative no-name pitchers will get hit around. In fact, both Fister and Nova have been two of hottest pitchers in baseball the past ten weeks, and with the bullpens rested and ready to go, I see this being a low scoring game. I like this play at under 9 runs, but am waiting to see if the line will go to 9.5 runs before I take it. Vegas' biggest exposure is on the Yankees and over, so I think waiting closer to gametime to take the Tigers and the under is the best bet.
So far in this series there has been 12, 8, 9, and 11 runs scored, with the over 3-1 in this series. The public seems to think that the powerful Yankees hitters are starting to come out of their slump, so everyone is taking the over. Fister and Nova are a combined 24-33 O/U this year, so they favor the under.
Even though everyone is expecting the Yankees to win tonight, I still hold true to my belief that the Tigers will win the series and feel good about our 2** series futures bet on the Tigers. Take the under 9.5 runs for 2 units, and if the line stays at 9, then take it for 1*. If your not on our futures bet then you might consider a small 1* play on the Tigers as we get closer to gametime, but the play tonight is on the under.
CHUCK O'BRIEN
Let's get to the complimentary winner for tonight, as I head to 161st Street in the Bronx for the decisive Game 5 in the American League Divisional Series, between the visiting Detroit Tigers and the junior circuit's top-seeded New York Yankees. Winner-take-all with this 8:05 p.m. game, and you know what, I'm staying away from the side altogether. I like the total in this one, and I'm playing the contrarian by betting this game Under the posted 9 runs.
Waiting in the wings for this one are the American League West champion Texas Rangers, and with Game 1 of the A.L. Championship Series slated for Saturday night, make note that neither team wants to turn to their bullpen if they don't need to. Forget the offense, both the Tigers and Yankees are looking at Doug Fister and Iván Nova, respectively, to pitch gems this evening, I am convinced of that.
Both are capable, and both have plenty to prove.
For Nova, who is part of a rotation that includes C.C. Sabathia, he must prove that he's worthy of a start like this, a series-deciding game against a volatile lineup that has already won one game in the Bronx in this series. Heck, Nova has been proving his worth all season, as he came into the Playoffs having won 16 games while posting a 3.70 ERA. Surprise, surprise, the 24-year-old rookie phenom comes is now unbeaten in 17 starts. Last week in Game 1, the right-hander allowed two runs on four hits over 6-1/3 innings of work, while walking four and striking out five. It really doesn't shock me the oddsmakers have installed him as a $1.50 favorite.
Now, that being said, the Yankees aren't going to get off that easy against Fister, who opposed Nova in the second part of Game 1's rain-shortened contest, and has faced the Yankees before that. And besides getting revenge for what turned out to be a tumultuous stand-in appearance for leading A.L. Cy Young Award candidate Justin Verlander, manager Jim Leyland undoubtedly is banking on the Fister who who went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA for the Tigers after being acquired before the trade deadline from the Mariners.
There are a slew of numbers that would indicate this game should fly over the number, but I'm more interested in the directly related numbers that are much more important, and more relative to this game and these pitchers.
For instance, in 31 starts this season, 22 of Fister's starts have stayed under the number, including five of his past eight trips to the hill. With Nova, who has been to the mound 27 times this year, 16 have stayed low, including four of his last six. And looking at their last three starts, Fister has actually produced better numbers, as he's a perfect 3-0 (remember, he didn't start Game 1, Verlander did), with a 0.48 WHIP and 0.39 ERA. Nova, meanwhile, is 1-0 in his last three outings, with a 1.22 WHIP and 2.11 ERA.
Yes, the average total in this series has been 10 runs, but I sense a pitchers' duel in the Bronx tonight, and am playing Game 5 under the posted total.
2♦ TIGERS-YANKEES UNDER
MATT RIVERS
Free play tonight is the Yankees to take care of their best-of-five series, and they do it with the run line win over the Tigers tonight. Detroit did not want to come back to New York for this elimination contest, and after giving up 6 runs in that fateful 8th inning on Tuesday night, things could not be set up any better for the Yankees tonight.
The New York bats got a huge confidence boost when they hit around in the 8th, and it will carry over tonight back at home. Ivan Nova has not lost since June 3rd, and he showed balls-of-steel on Saturday when he worked deep and recorded the win in Game One of this series.
Neither of the two New York wins in this series were close, and this one won't be either. Love the value we are getting by backing the Yanks on the run line tonight, as we turn this release into a plus-money proposition.
Yankees on the run line your Thursday comp play.
4♦ NY YANKEES -1.5
JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is to go against the grain, and take the Tigers and Yankees to play under the posted total this evening in the Bronx.
No doubt the runs have been plentiful thus far in this series, as the teams have combined to go 3-0-1 over through the first four contested, but tonight I expect things to really tighten up and for the pitchers to dominate.
Both Doug Fister and Ivan Nova have turned in some quality work down the stretch, and I expect them to come out dueling again tonight after doing battle in the continuation of the Friday rain-shortened contest the pair pitched in on Saturday night.
Fresh start for both tonight, and it is a hard to argue against 19 of Fister's 28 starts this season holding under the total. As for Nova, 14 of his 25 efforts this season have produced unders for New York.
Yes, all hands are listed as on-deck for tonight pitching-wise, but with a Saturday opener versus the resting Rangers on the line, I can assure you that neither manager wants to burn through starting pitchers in tonight's series finale.
I am playing the under in Game Five.
2♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
It's not exactly the most attractive conference clash tonight, as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers visit Middle Tennessee State in search of their first win of the season. I'm not sure how easy that'll be, as the host Blue Raiders finally got a taste of victory last week, scoring a seven-point win over Memphis, 38-31. But honestly, I don't even care what takes place with this game, as I'm playing the total, and I'm playing it to go sky high tonight.
Middle Tennessee State averages 29.5 points per game, and is giving up an average of 36.25 points per game. That's a little more than 65 points per game. Now, that soft defense is just what the doctor ordered for the Hilltoppers, who are averaging a mere 13.75 points per game. On the other side, they're allowing 31 points per game. So that's an average of about 44 or 45 points per game. Somewhere between that 45 and Middle Tennessee's 65 is 55 points. The oddsmakers posted a 54 on this game, and I'm thinking we're going to see this one creep into the 60s.
While Western Kentucky's four games have split out with the totals: two overs an two unders, all four of Middle Tennessee's games have gone over the posted total. And dating back to last season, including a Bowl game in January, the Blue Raiders have gone over in seven straight games, with combined totals of: 69, 73, 70, 51, 56, 55 and 52 points - an average of 60 points per game.
Bottom line with this game, it involves two of the worst scoring defenses in the nation, and as bad as these teams are on paper - Western Kentucky is 0-4 and Middle Tennessee State is 1-3 - this might actually be an entertaining shootout with the number of points I expect.
Play this one high.
3♦ Wku/Mtsu OVER
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play, I'm siding with the Yankees and Nova over the Tigers and Fister. First thing that has to stand out to you about this game is the line. Oddsmakers are basically begging you to take the Tigers, offering you plenty of plus money to take a flyer on the road dog. Big mistake.
Think about it. Think about how well Doug Fister has pitched (as a starter) of late, going 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA L3 starts. Yes, I'm well aware he got tagged for 6 runs on 7 hits over just 4 2/3 innings in Game 1, but the guy has been great down the stretch. You definately can't say the same about Nove, who's ERA at Yankee Stadium is a touch over 4. My point is, why is Fister being priced this cheaply and conversly, why is Nova being treated like a superstar by the guys in Vegas?
The answer is simple. The oddmsakers are doing everything they can to dissuade you from playing the Yankees. They're offering you plus money with what appears to be the better pitching matchup. But sorry I'm not buying it. I expect this now re-awakened Yankees offense to rip Fister to shreds once again. It may be expensive, but the Yankees are worth the price. Take the NY Yankees with Nova over Detroit and Fister.
2♦ NY YANKEES
Scott Delaney
For your complimentary winner on Thursday night, I am playing the Under in the California-Oregon showdown in Eugene. This point spread is too big to mess with, as the Ducks are laying 24 points to visiting Cal. Can Oregon win and cover, probably. But are the Bears spunky enough to cover, perhaps, in the backdoor. Why screw around with that number, when it's crystal clear the total will stay under the posted 65-1/2 points the oddsmakers are toting.
Now follow me here, while the host Ducks rank No. 1 in the nation with their scoring offense, averaging 52 points per game, look at the teams they've scored on through their first four games. Oregon lost to LSU in the season-opener, and managed to put up 27 points on that defense in a 13-point setback. Then it came up against Nevada, which isn't exactly the powerhouse team out of the Western Athletic Conference it usually is, so the Ducks rolled to a 69-20 win. Next up, a 56-7 crushing of Missouri State, another cupcake. Finally, in Tucson, against Arizona, the Ducks won 56-7. Not one of those wins came against a defense that ranks higher than 110th in the points allowed department.
Now, after a bye week, Oregon gets right back into Pacific 12 play against an upset-minded California team that ranks 27th overall with its stop unit, and is only allowing 24.2 points per game. Can you imagine if the oddsmakers are right on with tonight's spread, and Cal does its part in holding the Ducks to that 24.2 average. The final would be 24-0. I know, the numbers I'm throwing out there are dizzying. But my point is, the Golden Bears didn't head North to lose this game, and they're going to use a balanced, ball-control offense, and a physical defense to keep this one as close as they can.
I'm still not sold on either side, but I do believe the Bears will be successful in forcing the Ducks to be very precise and very careful with each possession. Both teams will be taking their time when they have the ball, trust me. It's how Cal does things when it's installed as an underdog, as the Bears are 13-4 under when catching points.
And in this series, this is very important, while it tends to look like a shootout on paper each season, the under has cashed in four straight years and eight of the last 10. Play this one low boys, as it stays under the posted 65-1/2 points.
2♦ Cal-Oregon UNDER
David Banks
California / Oregon Over
ESPN’s Thursday night college football telecast takes us to Autzen Stadium for a Pac-12 North tussle between the California Golden Bears (3-1, 2-2 ATS) and the Oregon Ducks (3-1, 2-2 ATS; kick-off for this divisional tussle is set for 9:00 ET.
California will have had two weeks to prepare for this trip to Eugene having last played back on September 24th on the road at Washington. Though it dropped that game and failed to cover in the 31-23 defeat, the Golden Bears had numerous opportunities to win the game and did outgain the Huskies in total yardage 457-409. U-Dub currently sits tied atop the Pac-12 North standings with Stanford. Coach Jeff Tedford’s kids enter this game with some very nice stats across the board. Offensively, the team ranks 24th in the land in total yardage (456.5 YPG) and has scored an average of 39.5 PPG (#15). QB Zach Maynard looks to be the real deal already throwing for 1073 yards to go along with 10 TDs and only three interceptions. Defensively, the team has given up 24.2 PPG, but its run defense has only allowed 78.2 YPG (#9) which is huge considering tonight’s opponent.
Since getting steamrolled by the LSU Tigers to open up their 2011-12 campaign, the Ducks have put a hurtin’ on their foes outscoring the likes of Nevada, Missouri State and Arizona by the aggregate score of 181-58. They to enter this conference clash off a bye and stand a moneymaking 9-3 ATS when playing off an extra week’s preparation. It should come as no surprise that head coach Chip Kelly’s lightning fast offense ranks amongst the best in the country on that side of the ball. Their average of 52 points scored per game is the best mark in the country, and RB LaMichael James is the ringleader of the 6th best rushing attack that’s averaged a whopping 299.5 YPG. Oregon has not been as good defensively as they were a year ago however, allowing opponents to rack up an average of 389.5 YPG (#77) as well as 24.5 PPG (#59).
Oregon has won this match-up each of the last two seasons, but the Golden Bears are the decided pointspread victor covering in four of the L/5 overall meetings. Cal gave the Ducks their biggest scare of the season a year ago holding them to just 320 total yards of offense in the Quack Attack’s 15-13 road win. Cal has failed to cover each of its L/4 conference match-ups dating back to last season, but the Ducks are just 1-5 ATS their L/6 Thursday night battles.