Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 7,2010

Tom Stryker

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

It's gut-check time for Tampa Bay. Off Wednesday's 5-1 home loss to the Rangers, the Devil Rays know they must pick up a victory in the second game of this American League Division Series or they'll need to sweep the Rangers in Texas to force a game five.

Rays manager Joe Maddon will hand the ball to "Big Game James" Shields and ask him to step up one more time. In his final three starts of the year, Shields got rocked pretty good allowing 16 earned runs and 27 hits in 16.1 innings of work. That's bad enough for an ugly 0-3 record and an enormous 8.82 ERA! Fortunately, James' numbers at home are solid enough to keep me interested here. Inside the bubble at Tropicana Field, No. 33 has been scratched for 51 earned runs and 111 hits in 101.1 innings of work. That's equates to a respectable 4.53 ERA!

Texas will counter with southpaw C.J. Wilson. Even though Wilson's numbers are solid this season (15-8 record with a nifty 3.35 ERA), C.J.'s efforts in his last six starts weren't the greatest. With 32.1 frames in the bank, the Newport Beach, California native got spanked for 21 earned runs and 34 hits. That adds up to a 3-3 record and an elevated 5.85 ERA!

If you need a little technical support to make this investment, consider the following: The Rays have feasted on left-handed pitching posting "W's" in 33 of their last 49. Meanwhile, the visiting Rangers have slipped in the underdog role posting a dismal 5-13 SU record in their last 18 tries.

The Devil Rays have plenty of playoff experience on their roster and they're not about to blink. As for the Rangers, they already accomplished their goal by winning at least one of the first two games. "Big Game James" gets the job done for the home team. Take Tampa Bay with listed pitcher Shields.

Craig Trapp

Braves vs. Giants
Play:Under 6.5

Two great pitchers take the mound on Thursday as Lincencum and Lowe square off in game 1. Both these teams have been led by great pitching but the hitting has been an issue for both teams this year. This has the makings of a very low scoring game as both the aces duel. No way this one gets above 4 runs as a 2-1 or 2-0 game is inevitable.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa pretty much has their season on the line. The reward for battling the Yankees all year long and winning the division is just one extra home game in a best of 5 series. Now that they have lost game one this will be a must win game. The Rays are a solid 8-2 in game 2 of a home series off a loss this year. Texas has lost the last 3 times in game 2 of a road series off a win. The fact remains that Texas is still just 3-8 on turf this year and has lost 7 of their last 10 here on this field. Tonight they send Wilson to the mound in hopes of grabbing a 2-0 series lead. Tampa counters with J.Shields today. Though Shields has fallen on tough time of late he does have one of his efforts of the season here against Texas. He went 7 innings and allowed just 1 earned run in that one. Look for Tampa to respond here and even the series.

SEAN MURPHY

Nebraska @ Kansas St.
PICK: Nebraska -11.5

It's hard to believe that a 4-0 team could find itself in a 'bounce-back' spot, but that's the case with the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Thursday.

The Huskers laid an egg against South Dakota State last time out, winning 17-3 as 41.5-point favorites. There were very few positives to take from that performance. Even the defense, which allowed just a field goal, wasn't all that sharp, giving up 141 yards on the ground.

Huskers head coach Bo Pellini has always gotten the best from his players, and coming off that poor effort, you can bet he'll have his guys fired up for their Big 12 opener, in a primetime national tv game no less.

To say that the Huskers have had their way with Kansas State in recent years would be an understatement. They've won the last four matchups in the series by a combined 177-65 margin, with none of those wins coming by less than two touchdowns.

Kansas State is off to a 4-0 start, but I'm not all that impressed by what the Wildcats have accomplished. They've outgained their four opponents by a grand total of 111 yards. Three of their four wins have come by single-digits.

The problem with Kansas State is its one-dimensional offense. RB Daniel Thomas is a top NFL prospect, and he's certainly played like it this season, gaining six yards per rush to go along with six touchdowns. But what happens when the Wildcats face a team like Nebraska that can minimize his effectiveness?

Wildcats QB Carson Coffman has put up solid if not spectacular numbers this season. He's thrown five touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, but I expect to see some regression. Keep in mind, Coffman had thrown just three touchdowns and six interceptions in spot duty over the last three seasons.

Nebraska's best game so far this season came in its lone road contest, at Washington back on September 18th. Kansas State will have the Huskers full attention given their spotless 4-0 record, and that should translate into a victory by at least two touchdowns. Take Nebraska.

JIM FEIST

YANKEES / TWINS
TAKE OVER

Andy Pettitte had a better first half of the season than second half. He was injured and has not been sharp since his long layoff. In his last 4 starts, 16 innings, he has allowed 28 hits and 14 runs! In fact, the Yankees are 6-2 over the total his last 8 starts. Minnesota is an excellent offensive park and these are two of the best offenses in baseball. Play the Yankees/Twins Game 2 Over the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

Texas +1.13 over TAMPA BAY

After losing game one, winning game two becomes even more difficult for the Rays because all the pressure is on them while the Rangers will play with no pressure whatsoever. C.J. Wilson was solid for most of the season in his move to the Ranger rotation, with identical 3.35 ERAs in both 1H and 2H. His 47% groundball rate and 0.3 hr/9 speak to his stuff. Wilson’s sub-3.00 xERA confirms that he has taken his game to a higher level and he’s been a model of consistency all season long. James Shields meanwhile, had one of the worst homeruns/9 innings in the majors, posting a 1.4+ HR/9 in five out of six months he pitched. Since the all-star break, Shields has a 5.09 ERA and 1.59 WHIP since the all-star break and he continued a negative trend for the third consecutive year of xERA, control and BAA v both lefties and righties. In his last start, a crucial one against the Royals, Shields went 5 innings and allowed 12 hits and six runs. Furthermore, the Rays are struggling miserably at the plate and that’s really no surprise when you look under the hood. They finished next-to-last in AL strikeouts and first in AL walks, i.e. – this is a low-contact offense. TB’s biggest offensive threats are Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria, who led the team in RBIs and are the only regulars hitting over .265. Given their poor contact, dead spots can appear at any time in the Rays lineup and in fact, they’ve scored more than three runs only six times in their final eight contests, while being shutout in three of these games – all of this not coincidentally coming with Longoria out of the lineup. The Rays looked weak yesterday and today they’re a team in trouble. The Rangers had a real bounce in their step yesterday and have a huge psychological advantage here not to mention an advantage on the mound and at the plate. Play: Texas +1.13 (Risking 2 units).

Carolina +1.09 over MINNESOTA

Note the 12:00 PM EST start. These two open the season overseas in Helsinki and that’s why it starts at noon. Cam Ward is healthy again after a year filled with injuries and he’s definitely a key part of the Canes. The Hurricanes were 21-10-3 after Jan. 21 last season. With Eric Staal leading the charge, they have the potential to be a playoff team. Jussi Jokinen is among the NHL's most anonymous 30-goal scorers and in the off-season the Canes reacquired Joe Corvo while Anton Babchuk returned from the KHL. The Canes also have two great looking rookies in Jeff Skinner and Zac Dalpe and they’ll both make their NHL debuts here. This is a young, energetic and undervalued squad to open the year while the Minnesota Wild may be the NHL’s most troubled group. The Wild went from second in the NHL in goals-against in 2008-09 to 21st last season. Injuries piled up to key players. There were some bright spots in 2009-10, but not many. Antti Miettinen is a returning 20-goal scorer for the Wild, but the rest of Minnesota's forwards are short on offensive firepower. Guys like Kyle Brodziak, Chuck Kobasew and Cal Clutterbuck offer some skill and gritty play, but getting a great deal of scoring from their bottom-six forwards is going to be a problem. They have a potentially very good top line with Havlat and Koivu but Havlat’s production was way down and teams are really going to focus on shutting that top line down. Goaltender Josh Harding is out for the year and that means a lot of pressure on Backstrom. Under similar pressure last season after being inked to a huge contract, Backstrom had the worst season of his career. Plain and simple, this year's edition of the Minnesota Wild does not appear to have the talent and until we see something different, we’ll play against them when they’re favored. Play: Carolina +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

COLORADO +1.17 over Chicago

Guess which team has the best record in season openers? The Av’s have lost just six of them in 30 years they have a great shot of improving that record tonight. Emotion will be full force tonight and so will the electric crowd. The Av’s are great up front and in net with Craig Anderson but its biggest problem, and it could be a huge one, is a suspect defense that allows way too many scoring chances. With Stastny, Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly donning Avalanche sweaters, Colorado general manager Greg Sherman seems to have found his top-three centers of the future. Stastny expects to center a line with wingers T.J. Galiardi and Chris Stewart, who led the team with 28 goals last year. Stewart, the 18th overall pick of the 2006 draft, is a burgeoning power forward and also finished second to Stastny on the team with 64 points. The Blackhawks are an offensive power but there’s the possibility of the Stanley Cup hangover and there’s a ton of personnel changes too. Chicago lost 10 players in order to get under the cap and you simply can’t measure the value of all those outstanding “role players”. Goaltending is a huge issue. No title-winning club in recent memory, through either trades or salary-cap issues, has gotten rid of both their netminders before the start of the following season. Chicago will be hard-pressed to justify parting ways with the combined efforts of Huet and Niemi, especially after Niemi's playoff run. Enter Marty Turco and Corey Crawford. Turco lost about 10 steps last season and looked awful all year long. He was benched on several occasions and he’s a huge gamble. The Blackhawks may be the epitome of the one-shot deal, a shocking example of the vagaries of the salary-cap era and a lesson to other top-tier clubs that going for it all only pays off if you win. The guts of the club may have been ripped out. Play: Colorado +1.17 (Risking 2 units).

Bobby Maxwell

Atlanta (+145) at SAN FRANCISCO

I'm dishing out a FREE baseball winner tonight in Game 1 between the Braves and Giants from San Francisco.

For my comp play, one thing we know about the Giants is that they struggle to score runs and that is going to play a huge part tonight as I’m grabbing the plus-money with Atlanta in Game 1 from San Francisco.

The Braves are sending postseason veteran Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) to the mound in the opener and we all know this guy has seen it all in his career, including plenty of postseason action with the Red Sox and the Dodgers. This season, Lowe won his last five regular-season starts and is making his 11th career playoff start.

Lowe was magnificent down the stretch, allowing just four runs in his last 30.2 innings of work. And he’s also very familiar with this Giants’ lineup, facing them twice this year and 10 times since 2007. In two outings this year, Lowe gave up three runs over 11.1 innings in easy wins of 6-3 at home and 7-2 in San Francisco. Only once in those last 10 starts against them did Lowe allow more than three earned runs.

Opposite Lowe, San Francisco sends two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) to the mound. He was absolutely lousy in August, going through the first five-start losing streak of his career, then he turned it around in September, winning five of his last six starts and not allowing more than three earned runs in any of the six. Lincecum faced the Braves twice this year and allowed five runs over 13.1 innings and split the two games.

The Giants are on slides of 1-5 against N.L. East teams and 1-4 when Lincecum is a home favorite.

Coming down the stretch, San Francisco had a six-game homestand with each game being playoff atmosphere and they weren’t able to score more than four runs in any contest. Meanwhile, the Braves scored five or more in three of their last four.

Atlanta has more offense, so I’m banking on them pushing across some runs and making life tough on San Francisco. Grab the plus-money and play the Braves.

2♦ ATLANTA

Stephen Nover

Atlanta at SAN FRANCISCO (-155)

On the Thursday menu, I offer a free selection on the San Francisco Giants to beat the Atlanta Braves.

Sometimes there's value in mid-sized chalk. That's the case in this Game 1 series matchup.

Tim Lincecum is back to his dominant ways. Lincecum isn't going to win a third consecutive Cy Young Award, but he did come through during September going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA. He struck out 52 during this span while giving up a combined 39 hits/walks.

Another encouraging factor with Lincecum is he has gone 12 straight games where his fly ball outs have not exceeded his ground ball outs.

The Giants have won 67 percent of the past 52 times Lincecum has been chalk. The Giants are 4-0 versus the Braves the past four times they've faced Atlanta at home with Lincecum pitching.

Atlanta was outstanding at home going 56-25, but a poor 35-46 on the road. The Braves have lost 10 of their last 12 road contests when facing a team with a winning record. Since the All-Star break, the Braves are 1-8 on the road against opponents with a winning mark.

The Giants' offense is better than their overall statistics may indicate. Their offense was much improved in August and September, helped by Pat Burrell, who smacked 18 homers and provided a clutch bat.

Braves starter Derek Lowe also is coming off a strong September where he went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA. But there's quite a bit of difference between Lincecum and Lowe.

The right-handed Lowe is 37. The Giants have won eight of their last 10 home games against right-handers. Lowe last pitched on Sept. 29. He hasn't gone this long between starts the entire season.

Lowe also is a sinkerball pitcher. The long layoff especially hurts that type of pitcher because the ball has a tendency to stay higher in the zone. Lowe needs work to be fresh. He also has a terrible defense behind him. The
Braves ranked third from the bottom in errors in the National League, just one error away from second-worst.

Lowe needs strong infield defense. But third baseman Brooks Conrad (replacing injured Chipper Jones), Omar Infante and Alex Gonzalez have never played together at AT&T Park.

1♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Chuck O'Brien

Texas (+110) at TAMPA BAY

For Thursday’s complimentary selection, take the Rangers to go up 2-0 in their playoff series against the Rays.

The bottom line here is if the Rangers can get to a lefty the caliber of Rays ace David Price – who gave up five runs (four earned) in his worst home performance of the season in Wednesday’s 5-1 win – they should have no trouble teeing off on James Shields. Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA in 33 starts, and his 34 home runs allowed were the second most in baseball.

Over his final three regular-season starts, Shields went 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA (giving up 27 hits and six walks in just 16 1/3 innings), and after Sept. 1, he went 0-4 with a 7.59 ERA in six starts (five of which Tampa Bay lost). How hittable was Shields this year? Opponents had a .294 average against him, including .310 after the All-Star break.

Admittedly, Texas lefty C.J. Wilson wasn’t exactly dominant down the stretch either (1-3, 5.85 ERA in his last six starts). However, Wilson’s body of work for the season (15-8, 3.35 ERA overall; 4-5, 2.91 ERA on the road) certainly trumped Shields’ numbers. And while the Rays were just 16-17 when Shields started this season (8-8 at home), Texas went 24-9 in back of Wilson (9-5 on the road).

Finally, after Lee mowed them down yesterday, the Rays are batting just .245 in their last 10 games against lefties. The Rangers are batting a robust .312 in their last 10 games against right-handers.

3♦ TEXAS

Karl Garrett

Texas at TAMPA BAY

As for your comp play, early American League action, and the G-Man is looking for a high-scoring game between the Rangers and Rays.

Yesterday the teams stranded plenty of runners, as Texas drew first blood in a 5-1 win. Today, I expect the runs to add up with C.J. Wilson and James Shields on the mound.

Wilson has allowed 21 runs to cross over his last 32-plus innings of work, while Shields has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, so you can see the pedigree is there for a high-scoring contest to play out.

5 of the 7 meetings between the teams this season have played over the total, and 8 of the last 10 overall between the clubs dating back to last year have also landed over the total.

This matinee meeting lands over the total as well.

4♦ OVER

Joel Tyson

N.Y. Yankees at MINNESOTA

Thursday night, I am going to go with another over in the Yankees-Twins series.

Last night the teams scratched out 10 combined runs for an over, and I don't see any issue with the teams coming up with another big number against Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano, that is for sure.

Pettitte has struggled since coming back fromm a groin injury, allowing 9 earned runs and a whopping 19 hits in just over 7 innings of work, while his counterpart Carl Pavano sports an ERA over 7 for his last 3 starts.

6 of Pettitte's last 8 starts have ended up playing over the total, and dating back to the regular season, New York has played over the total in 5 in a row, and 8 of their last 10, while the Twins have been over the total in 7 of their last 10 dating back to the regular season.

Stick with the sticks in this one.

Over the total in Game 2.

3♦ OVER

SPORTS WAGERS

Total wins for the year

Atlanta Thrashers over 36½ wins

Low on the radar screen because of very little success and a lack of fan interest over the years are the Atlanta Thrashers. That lack of interest has created a very beatable number. In fact, for them to go under this win total they’re going to have to play under .500 and that’s very unlikely to happen. Sure, they’re in the same division as the Caps and they’re going to have to play them eight times but even if they lose all eight, which is highly unlikely, they’ll still go over this total. The rest of the division includes Carolina, Tampa Bay and Florida and none of those are better than the Thrashers. Atlanta had an active and very productive off-season. They took advantage of Chicago's salary cap crunch to land the likes of Dustin Byfuglien, Ben Eager and Brent Sopel in a trade for three players, including Marty Reasoner, and a pair of 2010 draft picks. They signed Andrew Ladd, also a Blackhawk last year, and to shore up its goaltending they signed Chris Mason. He and Ondrej Pavelec have the potential to be make up a strong goaltending duo. The Thrashers have three outstanding young players in Zach Bogosian, Evander Kane and Niclas Bergfors, not to mention some rock solid forwards in Nik Andropov, Rich Peverley and Brian Little. Does anyone even realize how good Kane and Bogosian are? Defensively, they lost Pavel Kubina to free agency but more than made up for the departure with the additions of Byfuglien and Sopel. Adding those two to a returning mix of Ron Hainsey, Tobias Enstrom, Johnny Oduya and Bogosian gives Atlanta a solid six behind the blue line. The Maple Leafs win total for the year is 37½ and for Toronto to be higher ranked than the Thrashers is insane. This is a good team with a solid defense, rock solid goaltending, very skilled at the all-important center position and aside from the Caps they play in a weak division. Play this one with confidence. Play: Atlanta over 37½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Toronto Maple Leafs under 37½ wins

Pay no attention the Maple Leafs half decent success in the preseason. They played like it was the playoffs. They played for jobs, they played their hearts out and they played like it mattered. It didn’t. Once the season begins the Maple Leafs will once again be one of the leagues bottom feeders. They’re loaded with young and unproven players and a coach that thinks he’s smarter than everyone. They also have a GM who thinks he’s smarter than anyone. Both coach and GM are so overrated it’s sick. Brian Burke made what some think were shrewd moves by acquiring Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel. Just like every GM before him, Burke traded away top draft picks to obtain players. Is Kessel a front-line NHL player worth three top draft choices? Not in this lifetime. For one, he gets injured every year and although he’s a natural goal scorer, the Leafs have no depth up front and the opposition’s top defensive lines will be assigned to him all year. After Kessel, the Leafs top returning scorer from 2009-10 is Tomas Kaberle. In terms of goaltending, they’ll go with Jean-Sebastien Giguere and second-year NHLer Jonas Gustavsson. That duo could be good but in no way is it a sure bet. Dion Phaneuf has been on a steady decline since ’08 in terms of his points and defensive play. He has a wicked shot but he hits the net with it once every 10 tries. Colby Armstrong, Tyler Bozak, Nikolai Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski are great third and fourth line players but the Leafs are trying to make them into more than that. They’re not. Then there are injuries and no team is immune. The Leafs have no depth and once a few players go down they’ll be in more trouble. Toronto won 30 games last season and now they’re 8½ games higher than that? Are you kidding? They’re in a tough division with Ottawa, Boston, Buffalo and Montreal and no way do they finish ahead of any of those teams with perhaps the exception of the Canadiens and even that’s a stretch. The Leafs will be under both heavy scrutiny and pressure and they just don’t have the talent to respond. Let’s also not undermine the fact that the opposition gets completely jacked up to play in Toronto on Saturday night. If everything goes perfect, that is good goaltending and no injuries, the Leafs still won’t hit 38 wins. Play: Toronto under 37½ wins +1.21 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Benton

I’m on a 136-110-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away after Wednesday’s easy winner on the Phillies-Reds UNDER the total in Game 1. On Thursday, we’ll take Atlanta as a road underdog in Game 1 of the NLDS at San Francisco.

I respect Tim Lincecum, and his efforts over the final month of the season – he led San Francisco to five wins in his final six starts while posting a 2.16 ERA – is a huge reason why the Giants beat out San Diego for the N.L. West crown. However, Atlanta’s Derek Lowe was sensational down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his final five starts (and the Braves went 6-0 in Lowe’s final six outings after losing 15 of his first 27 starts).

Lowe has completely owned the Giants since the start of the 2007 season, going 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 10 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two outings this season (a 7-2 road win and a 6-3 home win). Over these 10 starts, the Giants are 3-7 (1-4 at home), they’ve scored three runs or fewer six times; and they have a grand total of one home run vs. Lowe in 58 1/3 innings.

Back to Lincecum: The Giants were far from automatic when their ace pitched at home (they’re 9-8 in his 17 starts at AT&T Park, including 1-4 in his last five as a favorite). Also, Lincecum has lost two of his last three starts to Atlanta, giving up a combined nine runs in 18 1/3 innings (4.42 ERA).

The Braves went 4-3 against San Francisco this season and have won seven of the last 11 clashes, and to get a red-hot Lowe at this kind of plus price against a weak Giants lineup is too good to pass up.

4♦ ATLANTA BRAVES

LT Profits

Tampa Bay Rays -120

The Texas Rangers drew first blood in their ALDS series vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, winning the opener 5-1 behind Cliff Lee yesterday, but we look for the American League East champion Rays to even up the series this afternoon.

The bookmakers seem to agree, as they have installed the Rays as -120 favorites on the betting line.

If you simply looked at the year-to-date pitching statistics of the starters today, you would think that Texas has a huge pitching advantage. After all, C.J. Wilson went 15-8 with a nice 3.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, while James Shields of the Rays finished at 13-15 despite pitching for a first place team with an ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

However, after a fantastic start, Wilson did not finish the year well, as he had just two Quality Stats in his last six outings, allowing at least six runs in two of those efforts., Furthermore, he was very hittable in his only start vs. Tampa Bay this year, as the Rays touched him up for five runs on six hits and four walks in only five innings.

If Wilson’s recent struggles continue and he is in need of a quick hook, the Texas long relief has not been great lately, with the pen posting just a 4.89 ERA overall in the last 10 games.

Now, there is no way to sugarcoat what a bad year Shields had this season, as he was a major disappointment after being one of the leaders of this staff in recent years. However, one thing he does have that Wilson lacks is post-season experience, and he pitched very well in Tampa Bay’s World Series run two years ago. Also, as bad a year as he had, he was two fro two in Quality Starts vs. Texas this season, including allowing one earned run on four hits in seven innings here.

Perhaps most importantly, if manager Joe Maddon has a quick hook, which he in all likelihood will given the enormity of this contest, the Tampa bullpen has been sensational, in fact not allowing a single earned run in the last 10 games!

Look for a desperate Tampa Bay team to find a way to even the series before the teams head to Arlington for the next two games.