Ben Burns
Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal made some noise in the playoffs last year. However, keep in mind that the Canadiens barely snuck in there in the first place and that it was their goalie (Jaroslav Halak) who was largely responsible for their improbable run. Halak has now moved on and his replacement (Carey Price) is currently dealing with the flu. That means Alex Auld will likely get the nod. Auld is capable of playing well, as are all goalies in this league. That said, there's a reason that he's been a backup for most of his career.
These Original Six rivals also met in last year's opener. The Canadiens won that game by a score of 4-3, in overtime. That marked the start of an 8-game losing streak for the Leafs. They're an improved team this season and should be extremely motivated to avoid a similar fate. The Leafs won as many preseason games (5) as any team in the Eastern Conference and they should have a solid shot at beginning the new campaign with a victory. Consider Toronto
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Braves/Giants UNDER 6.5
This may look like a small number at first glance, but consider that we haven't seen more than 5 total runs scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two clubs. Considering Lincecum has a 2.89 career ERA against Atlanta, and Lowe has a 3.02 career ERA against San Francisco, I like our chances with the Under. The Under is 4-0 in Lincecum's last 4 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs. the Braves. The Under is also 4-0 in Lowe's last 4 starts as a road underdog and 6-0 in his last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants finished the season by playing to the Under in 6 of their last 7 games. Atlanta finished Under the total in 6 of its last 8 down the stretch. I think odds makers are begging for action on the Over with this low number, but I'll take the Under with a pair of quality starters on the hill.
BRETT ATKINS
On to my free winner - the best thing that could have happened for Nebraska was their narrow victory over tiny South Dakota State in their last game on September 25.
The Huskers had blown out their first three opponents and might have been getting full of themselves, but that narrow win and bad performance put all focus back on the practice field. Redshirt freshman QB Taylor Martinez had rushed for more than 100 yards in each of his first three games but looked like a freshman against South Dakota with 75 rushing yards, a fumble and two interceptions.
Kansas State is going to have a tough time stopping a potent Nebraska rushing game as they average 309.2 yards per game. In their only road game, the Huskers rushed for 383 yards with Martinez running for 137 yards and three TDs.
Last time Nebraska went to Manhattan to take on the Wildcats, the Huskers scored a 56-28 win as six-point favorites. They lead the all-time series 77-15-2 and they are on ATS runs of 5-1 on Thursday and 6-1 on the road against teams with winning home records.
Kansas State is 0-5 ATS against teams with winning road records and 2-5 as a home underdog. I’ve got no problem laying the points with Nebraska today. Play the Huskers.
4♦ NEBRASKA
Tom Freese
New York at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
Minnesota starter Carl Pavano is 18-14 in his 32 team starts this year. The Twins are 63-31 their last 94 home game. Minnesota is 53-25 their last 78 home games vs. lefty starters. The Twins are 7-2 with Pavano off a quality start. The Twins are 8-3 in game two of a series. New York starter Andy Pettitte has allowed 10 runs in his last 7.1 innings of work. The Yankees are 4-9 their 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 2-10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their last game. New York 2-6 their last 8 Divisional Playoff road games.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Yankees/Twins UNDER 9 Runs
The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. While last night's contest went Over the number, we can't ignore the fact that the Under is 5-2 in the Twins' last 7 divisional playoff games and 3-1-1 in the Yankees' last 5 divisional playoff games. In addition, the Under is a rock solid 10-3-2 in Pavano's last 15 starts in the underdog role. The Under is also 22-9 in Pettitte's last 31 starts as a road favorite. Considering Pavano has a 3.58 career ERA against the Yankees, and Pettitte has a 3.30 lifetime ERA against the Twins, I'm taking the Under tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Texas Rangers +112
Reasons the Rangers win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (TAMPA BAY) - in a playoff game, when trailing in a playoff series. This is a 54-23 ML System hitting 70.1% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +34.2 units. All the pressure is on Tampa Bay tonight.
2.) Texas clearly has the better starter on the mound. C.J. Wilson is 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA this season, and he's posted a 2.91 ERA in 14 road starts this year. James Shields is 12-15 with a 5.20 ERA this season, and 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bet Texas on the road.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers +112
With such a big edge on the mound tonight in Game 2, I really like the Rangers at this price to take a 2-0 lead on the Tampa Bay Rays. Surprisingly, manager Joe Maddon has decided to send James Shields to the mound tonight. Shields has arguably been their worst starter this year, going 12-15 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 33 starts. And it's not like he is pitching well coming into the postseason, as Shields is 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA and 2.021 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
One of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, C.J. Wilson gets the ball for the Texas Rangers tonight. Wilson has been nothing short of spectacular this season, going 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 33 starts. What's most impressive is how he has pitched on the road, sporting a 2.91 ERA in 14 starts away from home. The Rangers are 24-9 in his 33 starts in 2010. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East, and 5-0 in Wilson's last 5 starts vs. AL East foes. Texas is 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Rangers Thursday.
Matt Fargo
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
Play: Atlanta Braves
This is a solid price for the Braves despite being 14 games worse than San Francisco in the home/road splits. The pitching matchup would have favored the Giants in a big way earlier in the season but that has all changed now. Derek Lowe is a new pitcher. His numbers in September were outstanding as he went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA with 29 strikeouts and three walks in 30.2 innings. Some will look at that and attribute it to luck or just a fortunate month but Lowe is pitching differently now because of his own actions. He went to pitching coach Roger McDowell, telling him, “I need a new game plan; what I'm doing isn't working.” McDowell suggested a change in approach, setting up hitters differently and mixing in different pitches. The rest is history as he is making a plan now and the best part for Atlanta is that they are seeing his back-door breaking ball to left-handers which used to be his signature pitch but the Braves had yet to see it. In 17 career starts against the Giants, Lowe has a 3.02 ERA and this season he went 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts. AT&T Park has turned into a home away from home as Lowe is 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts there. The Giants send their ace to the hill in Tim Lincecum and he too had a great September. In his last outing he earned his fifth win in his last six outings following a career-worst five-start losing streak. He has not been the same at home this year however. Last season he went 10-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 17 starts at AT&T Park with the giants going 10-5 in those games. This season he went just 9-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 17 starts with San Francisco going 9-8 in those games. 3* Atlanta Braves
VEGAS EXPERTS
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Yesterday’s Tip on the Under cashed by just one run. Today, the Sportsbooks have this total at eight runs, which is way too high for this afternoon’s matchup. Wilson is on the mound for the Rangers and has a 2.91 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in all road starts. Shields has some high numbers but will have a good performance tonight after the Rays got beat in the first game of the series yesterday. Take the Under again today!
Play on: The Under
Dave Price
1 Unit on Braves/Giants UNDER 6.5
These two teams have combined for just 5 total runs in 3 of their last 4 meetings. With a pair of aces on the hill in Lincecum and Lowe, who have proven track records in this series (Lincecum 2.89 lifetime ERA against Atlanta, Lowe 3.02 lifetime ERA against San Francisco), I'm taking the Under tonight.
Frank Jordan
Nebraska vs. Kansas State
Play: Nebraska -10.5
Nebraska is the 7th ranked team in the nation with a 4-0 record and has a win under its belt on the road already this season. Kansas State is also 4-0 and allowing just under 20 points per game this season. Each team is scoring over 30 points per game so look for this game to be a shoot out with Nebraska pulling away in the end for the 14-24 points victory. Play Nebraska
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Braves +148
Derek Lowe comes into this game underrated. He was perhaps the sole reason the Braves even made the postseason by the way he pitched over the final month. Lowe went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA over his final five starts of the regular season, allowing 4 earned runs in 30.2 innings with 31 strikeouts to 3 walks. The Braves are highly motivated to win it for Bobby Cox, and now that they are in the postseason they have a legitimate chance. Lowe is 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA in 17 career starts against San Francisco. Lowe is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts against the Giants this season, yielding 3 earned runs in 11.1 innings. With the way he is pitching right now, we'll certainly take our chances on the Braves in Game 1 at this price. Take Atlanta on the Money Line.