SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(21) Nebraska (3-1, 4-0 ATS) at (24) Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS)
The college football weekend kicks off with a key Big 12 North showdown, as Nebraska makes the trek to Faurot Field to battle the unbeaten Tigers.
The Cornhuskers rebounded from a heartbreaking, last-second 16-15 loss at Virginia Tech with a 55-0 whitewash of Louisiana-Lafayette on Sept. 26, easily cashing as a 30-point home chalk, the team’s fifth-consecutive spread-cover. In its three non-conference home wins – all against Sun Belt conference squads Florida International, Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette – Nebraska outscored its opponents by a combined 142-12 and outgained them by a total of 558 yards. However, against its toughest opponent to date, the Huskers managed just five field goals at Virginia Tech.
Despite losing several key starters from the last two Big 12 North championship teams, including record-setting QB Chase Daniel and electrifying receiver/kick returner Jeremy Maclin, the Tigers haven’t missed a beat. They ripped through their non-conference schedule, posting three double-digit wins (37-9 over Illinois, 52-12 over Furman, 31-21 over Nevada), as well as a narrow 27-20 victory over Bowling Green. Missouri had the yardage edge in all four victories, with net total offensive gain of 405 yards.
Missouri stomped on Nebraska on its way to the last two Big 12 North titles, rolling 41-6 as a 6½-point home favorite in 2007 and 52-17 as a 10-point road chalk last year. The Tigers’ victory in Lincoln last season ended a six-year SU and ATS run by the home team in this rivalry, with Missouri going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in Columbia. The favorite has gotten the money in the last three battles, and the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in the past eight head-to-head clashes.
Nebraska QB Zac Lee is off to a strong junior season, completing 64.8 percent of his throws for 928 yards with seven TDs and three INTs. However, Mizzou sophomore Blaine Gabbert has been even better, connecting on 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,161 yards with 11 TDs and no interceptions in 131 pass attempts, and he also has 80 rushing yards and two scores. Last year, as Daniel’s backup, Gabbert threw just 13 passes.
The Huskers have the rushing advantage on both sides of the ball, gaining 183.8 yards per game on the ground (5.7 per carry) and allowing 115.2 rushing ypg (3.2 per carry). That includes a 207-86 rushing edge in the loss at Virginia Tech. Missouri grinds out 143 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry) and surrenders 133.8 ypg (3.7 per carry), and that includes getting outgained 218-78 on the ground in its 31-21 win at Nevada two weeks ago.
In addition to its 5-0 ATS run overall, Nebraska has cashed in seven of its last eight and is on additional pointspread streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Thursday, 5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Tigers are in ATS slumps of 0-4 at home, 1-6 after a spread-cover, 0-4 versus winning teams and 2-6 after a bye.
The over is 4-0 in Nebraska’s last four Big 12 games and 4-0 in its last four after a bye week, while Missouri has topped the total in 11 of 15 as an underdog and four of five as a home pup. Conversely, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Huskers overall, 7-1 for the Huskers in October, 8-2 for the Huskers when playing on grass, 4-0 for Mizzou overall, 6-1 for Mizzou at home and 7-0 for Mizzou after an ATS triumph.
Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA
NLDS
Colorado (0-1) at Philadelphia (1-0)
The Phillies look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-5 series with the Rockies when they send last year’s postseason hero Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) to the Citizens Bank Park mound, while Colorado counters with Aaron Cook (11-6, 4.16).
Philadelphia got a dominating complete-game performance from Cliff Lee in Game 1 on Wednesday, rolling to a 5-1 victory. Since getting swept in the 2007 NLDS by the Rockies, the Phillies have owned Colorado, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings overall – all decided by multiple runs – including six of the last seven in the City of Brotherly Love.
Colorado is still on positive runs of 5-2 as an underdog, 6-2 against the N.L. East and 11-5 on Thursday. However, the Rockies were swept in the 2007 World Series by the Red Sox, so they’ve now lost five straight playoff games. Jim Tracy’s troops are on additional slides of 5-11 on the road, 4-11 against teams with a winning record and 1-7 on the road against left-handed starters.
The Phillies won the N.L. East by six games over the Marlins and they’re on a plethora of positive streaks, including 33-13 at home, 8-1 against the N.L. West, 9-4 on Thursday, 7-1 in postseason action, 8-0 in home playoff games and 4-1 in the divisional playoffs.
After three straight poor starts to begin August, Cook went on the disabled list for more than a month with an arm injury. He returned in time to make two starts down the stretch, allowing a combined one run (on a home run) and eight hits with one walk in 13 innings, as Colorado defeated the Cardinals 2-1 and the Brewers 9-2, both at home. The Rockies are 11-5 in Cook’s last 16 starts overall, 6-2 in his last eight on the road and 5-1 in his last six on Thursday.
Cook went just 6-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 road starts in his career, and he’s 1-5 with a 5.85 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Phillies (1-1, 3.75 ERA in two starts at Citizens Bank Park. He faced Philadelphia twice this season – at home in April, on the road in August – and gave up three runs in each start, pitching six innings at home and five innings in Philly.
Hamels struggled down the stretch, going 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA in his final three starts (all Phillies losses), and he went just 3-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 12 starts after Aug. 1. Last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP went 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 17 home outings this season, but in his final two tune-up starts (both at Citizens Bank), he squandered nine runs in 9 2/3 innings, with the Phillies losing 8-2 to Houston and 4-3 to Florida.
Hamels made his 2009 debut in Colorado back on April 10 – his first career start in Coors Field – and got bombed, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 loss. His only other start against the Rockies came in Game 1 of the NLDS in 2007, and the San Diego native yielded three runs in 6 2/3 innings, losing 4-2.
Cook’s postseason experience is limited to a single World Series start in 2007 against Boston, and he took the 4-3 loss in the deciding Game 4 after allowing three runs on six hits in six innings. Meanwhile, Hamels was brilliant last year in the playoffs, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts.
The “over” is 4-2-1 in the Rockies’ last seven overall, 13-5-1 in Cook’s last 19 road starts, 6-2-1 in Cook’s last nine outings vs. the N.L. East and 5-1-1 in Cook’s last seven on Thursday. However, the under is 3-1-1 in Colorado’s last five on the highway, 7-3 in its last 10 playoff contests and 4-1 in its last five playoff roadies.
The Phillies are on “over” streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 as a favorite, but the “under” for the team is on stretches of 12-5-1 at home, 4-0 against the N.L. West, 5-1-1 in the postseason, 5-2-1 in home playoff games and 6-0 in the divisional series. Also, with Hamels on the mound, the under is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 12-3-1 on Thursday.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in eight of 12 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, but four of the last five meetings at Citizens Bank Park have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
St. Louis (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
The Cardinals send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) to the hill at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles opposite lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) as St. Louis tries to even this best-of-5 NLDS.
The Dodgers scored a 5-3 upset win over St. Louis in Game 1 on Wednesday in a game that featured a postseason-record 30 runners left on base. Matt Kemp belted a two-run, first-inning homer for Los Angeles and closer Jonathan Broxton got a four-out save to secure the victory.
Even with the Game 1 loss, St. Louis has taken five of the eight series matchups with the Dodgers this season and has gone 11-5 in the last 16. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-5 in their last 15 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings overall.
The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 16-6 against N.L. West teams. Also, despite last night’s setback, the Cardinals are still on playoff runs of 5-2 overall, 17-6 in the division series and 4-1 in NLDS road affairs.
The Dodgers, who won their second straight division championship this year and also have home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs, are on positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-3 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog.
Wainwright was an amazing 12-1 on the road this season with a 3.39 ERA and the Cardinals won 14 of his 15 road starts. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, as St. Louis lost three of his last four outings, including Friday’s 12-6 home loss to the Brewers when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Wainwright allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and in his last roadie he gave up three runs (two earned) in eight innings of a 6-3 win in Colorado.
Wainwright beat the Dodgers twice this season, allowing a combined two runs in 15 innings, including a 3-2 win in Southern California against Kershaw on Aug. 19. In five career starts against Los Angeles, he is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work. Additionally, St. Louis is on several positive streaks with Wainwright on the hill, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 when he starts on the road, 15-7 after five days of rest, 5-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 against N.L. West opposition.
Kershaw was just 3-4 at home this season despite a sparkling 1.83 ERA. On Saturday, he turned in a gem in the N.L. West-clinching 5-0 win over the Rockies, scattering three hits over six innings, striking out 10 and walking three, but he failed to get a decision. The 20-year-old lefty didn’t allow more than two runs in a game in any of his last six starts, however the Dodgers were just 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall going back to July 24.
In his Aug. 18 start against the Cardinals, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits but walked four and threw 97 pitches in 3 2/3 innings in the 3-2 home loss. Three weeks earlier on July 29 in St. Louis, he pitched eight innings of shutout ball but the Dodgers still lost 3-2. In four career starts against the Cards, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. In addition to losing nine of Kershaw’s last 11 starts overall, the Dodgers are on slides behind the youngster of 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 when he gets four days off. s
With Wainwright on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-2-1 on the road. As a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 20-9 in playoff road games, 20-9-2 against southpaws, 6-3 against the N.L. West and 60-25-1 in Thursday contests.
The Dodgers are on several “under” runs with Kershaw on the bump, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 on Thursdays, 5-2 at home and 16-5-1 against teams with winning records. However, Los Angeles is also on “over” streaks of 8-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 at home and 7-1-1 against right-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the under is 9-5 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-2 in Southern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
ALDS
Boston (95-67) at L.A. Angels (97-65)
The Angels and Red Sox finally return to the field for Game 1 of their American League Divisional Series, with veteran John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA) taking the ball for the home team against Boston’s Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41).
This is the third straight year and the fourth time since 2004 that the Red Sox and Angels have faced off in an opening-round playoff series, and Boston has come out on top each time, winning nine of the 10 contests. Last year, the Red Sox won the best-of-5 series in four games, including winning the first two contests at Angel Stadium by scores of 4-1 and 7-5. Lester got the best of Lackey in Games 1 and 4 last season.
This year, the Angels won the season series from Boston 5-4, going 4-2 in Anaheim, and since the start of 2008, Los Angeles is 14-4 in regular-season play versus the Sox (7-2 at Angel Stadium).
Both teams have been idle since finishing the regular season with victories on Sunday, the Red Sox defeating Cleveland 12-7 and the Angels topping the A’s 5-3. Boston followed up a six-game losing skid – matching its longest slide of the season – by sweeping the season-ending four-game home series from the Indians by the combined score of 32-15. Meanwhile, despite having nothing to play for, the Angels won seven of their final eight games, including sweeping the three-game series in Oakland.
The Red Sox, who won the A.L. wild-card by eight games over Texas, are on positive streaks of 9-4 as a favorite, 13-5 as a road favorite, 21-8 versus right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory and 39-17 on Thursday. Also, in postseason action, Terry Francona’s club is on surges of 13-5 overall, 7-2 on the road, 6-1 in divisional contests (all against the Angels) and 6-2 in divisional road games (4-0 in Anaheim).
Los Angeles won its third straight A.L. West title by going 51-28 from July 10 on, and Mike Scioscia’s squad went 49-32 in Anaheim this season (4-1 in the last four) and carries further positive trends of 22-6 as a home underdog, 8-3 after an off day, 46-21 after a victory, 35-17 on Thursday and 35-17 versus southpaw starters. However, the Halos have lost 10 of their last 11 playoff contests (nine of 10 to Boston) and six straight home playoff games, and they’re 1-5 in their last six as a playoff pup.
Lester’s final regular-season start was a 3-0 gem a week ago against Cleveland, as he allowed two hits and a walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. The southpaw from Washington was 11-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 21 starts after June 1, with the Red Sox going 16-5. In fact, with Lester on the bump, Boston is on several hot streaks, including 40-17 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 against the A.L. West, 47-15 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 5-1 on Thursday.
Lester went 8-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 18 road starts this year, giving up three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings on the highway. He did not face the Angels this season, but last year in the playoffs, he guided Boston to wins in Game 1 (road) and Game 4 (home), allowing one unearned run on 10 hits over 14 innings with 11 strikeouts against three walks. However, in four regular-season meetings with Los Angeles from 2006-2008, Lester allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 19 2/3 innings (7.78 ERA).
Lackey missed the first six weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury and after a slow start, he went 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA in his final 19 starts, allowing two earned runs or less in 13 of those contests. However, the big right-hander limped to the finish line a bit, going 2-1 with 4.91 ERA in his final three regular-season outings. Lackey was 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 13 home starts in 2009.
The Angels are 3-14 all-time when Lackey faces Boston (0-3 in the playoffs), with the Texas native going 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 regular-season starts versus the Red Sox. In one start this season in mid-September, Lackey was a tough-luck 4-1 loser at Fenway Park, giving up three runs (two earned) in 7 2/3 innings.
For his career, Lester is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in seven playoff appearances (five starts) covering 36 innings). Meanwhile, Lackey – who pitched the Angels to a Game 7 win in the 2002 World Series – is 2-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 postseason games (nine starts), but 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three playoff starts versus Boston.
Behind Lester, Boston is on “over” runs of 5-1 on the road (all as a favorite) and 4-1-1 against the A.L. West, but the under is 11-4-3 the last 18 times Lester has opened a series. As a team, the Red Sox sport “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 10-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 against right-handed starters, 16-5 in series openers and 5-1-2 in opening-round playoff road games.
The over is 7-3 in Lackey’s last 10 home outings and 4-1 in his last five as a home ‘dog, and four of L.A.’s last five home playoff games have topped the total. Otherwise, though, the Angels are on “under” stretches of 23-7-1 overall, 5-1 as a ‘dog, 8-1 in series openers, 6-1 at home versus lefty starters, 5-2-2 in divisional playoff contests, 13-5 against winning teams and 5-2 when facing A.L. East squads. Also, Lackey’s last four starts versus Boston have stayed low, as have Lester’s last three versus Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
DUNKEL
Nebraska at Missouri
The Tigers look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Missouri is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Missouri favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+4)
Game 303-304: Nebraska at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 101.225; Missouri 105.791
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+4); Under
MLB
Boston at LA Angels
The Red Sox look to build on their 7-2 record in their last 9 playoff road games. Boston is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120)
Game 957-958: Colorado at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.007; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.812
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Over
Game 959-960: St. Louis at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.123; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.657
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 961-962: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.907; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.821
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over
NHL
NY Rangers at Washington
The Rangers look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games when playing with 2 days of rest. New York is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+165)
Game 1-2: Anaheim at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.107; Boston 12.286
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Over
Game 3-4: Phoenix at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.853; Buffalo 13.811
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-200); Over
Game 5-6: NY Islanders at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.054; Ottawa 10.616
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+175); Over
Game 7-8: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.066; Philadelphia 12.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Over
Game 9-10: NY Rangers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.679; Washington 12.534
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-175); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+165); Over
Game 11-12: New Jersey at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.569; Tampa Bay 10.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under
Game 13-14: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.491; Detroit 13.255
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Under
Game 15-16: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.817; St. Louis 12.272
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+150); Under
Game 17-18: Colorado at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.565; Nashville 12.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 19-20: Calgary at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.281; Edmonton 11.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-120); Over
Game 21-22: Minnesota at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.921; Los Angeles 11.685
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under
Game 23-24: Columbus at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.943; San Jose 11.775
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Over
Frank Jordan
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies got Cliff Lee for the exact reason of what happen yesterday he went the distance won the game and took the pressure of Cole Hamels in game 2. Colorado to avoid the 0-2 hole heading home will turn to Aaron Cook who was an 11 game winner this year, but had a 4.91 era in two starts against Philadelphia. Look for Cole Hamels to pitch a lot better than he did in his only start against Colorado this year when he got lit up for 7 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings as the Phillies once again pounce late and the rested bullpen dominates late. Play Philadelphia
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS / DETROIT RED WINGS
TAKE UNDER
Chicago's defense has been sharp, averaging 2 goals per game allowed on the young season. Both teams have had 4 straight days off before playing this one. The Blackhawks had three power-play goals and Finnish goalie Antti Niemi stopped 23 shots in a 4-0 victory against the Panthers. Can't see the offenses being as sharp after such a long layoff, especially this early in the season. Play the Blackhawks/Red Wings Under the total.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Nebraska -3 over MISSOURI
The Tigers have not won 3 straight in the series since '67-'69. Both offenses are about equal, but the Huskers Blackshirt defense (allowing 7 ppg) will be the difference in this one as they win by 7+.
Jeff Benton
Colorado at PHILADELPHIA
Got screwed out of at least a push with Wednesday's free-play release on the Dodgers-Cardinals UNDER, as L.A. gave up a "meaningless" run in the top of the ninth inning to make the final score 5-3 and push the game over the total of 7. I'll get back on track Thursday by playing Game 2 of the Rockies-Phillies series UNDER the total.
Don’t know if you watched Game 1 of this series yesterday, but the afternoon shadows at Citizens Bank Park definitely worked in favor of the pitchers, especially in the first five innings. And that was with the Phillies’ Cliff Lee (left-hander) and the Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez (right-hander) on the mound. Today, it’s the Phillies’ Cole Hamels (left-hander) and the Rockies’ Aaron Cook (right-hander).
Hamels has a very similar delivery, arm slot and plan of attack as Lee, and while Cook doesn’t throw as hard as Jimenez, his sinker can be downright devastating, especially when hitters struggle to pick up the pitch because of the aforementioned shadows.
As you know, Hamels was a beast last October, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts, earning NLCS and World Series MVP trophies for his efforts. And he’s facing a Rockies lineup that looked completely lost against Lee yesterday – not a big surprise considering how much Colorado struggles when it faces left-handed pitching on the road (.209 team average). Meanwhile, even though Cook doesn’t have Hamels’ stuff or playoff pedigree, he was very good in his final two regular-season starts after returning from a month-long stint on the disabled list (he gave up one run and eight hits in 13 innings in shutting down two very good offenses in the Brewers and Cardinals).
The under is 5-2-1 in Colorado’s last eight road games against lefties, 7-3 in its last 10 playoff contests, 5-1-1 in the Phillies’ last seven playoff contests, 12-5-1 in their last 18 home games, 8-2 in Hamels’ last 10 starts overall and 4-1 in his last five at home. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams at Citizens Bank. Play it low.
3♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis at L.A. DODGERS
Hit my second straight FREE winner on the diamond as the Phillies pounded out a 5-1 win over the Rockies in Game 1 of their NLDS. Tonight I've got another comp play coming in playoff action as I go with the Dodgers to take Game 2 over the Cardinals in Los Angeles.
Don't know why everybody was so shocked the Dodgers took Game 1 over the Cardinals. Los Angeles had the better record and was quite frankly the best team in baseball the first four months of the season. These guys are talented and even though their pitching staff is average, they play great defense and can get runs on the board.
I'm playing them here in Game 2 as I really like the way the young lefty Clayton Kershaw throws the ball. He posted a 1.83 ERA at home this season, and Saturday he was superb as the Dodgers clinched the N.L. West title with a 5-0 win over the Rockies. Kershaw allowed just three hits over six innings and struck out 10 in the division-winning start.
Kershaw faced these Cardinals on Aug. 18 and gave up just two runs in 3.2 innings of a 3-2 loss. That came off a July 29 start where he threw eight innings of shutout ball in St. Louis.
Adam Wainwright won 19 games this season for the Cardinals but he is just 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers.
Great momentum builder for the Dodgers in Game 1 when they beat Chris Carpenter who had been untouchable all season. Now when they wipe out the No. 2 starter in Wainwright, this series is theirs for the taking.
Play Los Angeles.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Stephen Nover
Boston -110 at ANGELS
Boston has owned the Angels in the post-season beating them 12 of the past 13 times. Boston has won seven of its last nine road playoff games.
And I'll side with Jon Lester against John Lackey.
Lester has been brilliant in his last 22 starts going 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA. No left-hander struck out more batters (225) than Lester this season. Lester took a line drive just above his knee in his second-to-last start. But he showed he was OK by holding Cleveland to two hits in 6 1/3 innings during his last start.
Lester didn't face the Angels this season. He last went up against them in last year's Division Series and didn't allow an earned run in 14 innings. Lester has a 2.25 ERA in seven post-season appearances.
Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon hasn't allowed a run in 25 post-season innings over 16 games. The Red Sox hold a huge bullpen edge.
Three of the key Angels have had little success versus Boston this season. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .211 with one extra base hit. Kendry Morales has no homers and 12 strikeouts in 35 at bats and Juan Rivera is batting .194 with one extra base hit.
Lackey was 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA when pitching at Angel Stadium. He is 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA in 14 career regular season starts against Boston. In three career playoff appearances versus the Red Sox, Lackey is 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA.
The Angels are 3-14 the past 17 times they've met Boston with Lackey as their starting pitcher.
2♦ BOSTON RED SOX
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston at LA ANGELS
Our free play run stands at 42-30-4 the last 76 days.
ALDS tonight, and while Boston has been able to beat Los Angeles come this time of year the past few seasons, we think the value tonight rests with the home team Angels.
LA did go 49-32 at home this season, including taking 4 of 6 from the Red Sox, while Boston was actually below .500 on the road this regular season at 39-42.
The Angels have been able to win 9 of the last 12 regular season series meetings at home versus Boston, so it is not like this team can't beat Boston, they just need to believe they can beat them in October.
John Lackey has won 2 of his last 3 starts against the BoSox, while Jon Lester has allowed 9 runs over his last 8 innings of work against the Halos.
Play on LA tonight.
1♦ LA ANGELS
Karl Garrett
Boston at LA ANGELS
On a 3-1 free play run the last 4 days.
For Thursday night, the G-Man has a feeling on this Angels team. I know all about how Boston has had their number during the postseason, and how the Angels are just 1-10 their last 11 playoff games, but I cannot overlook the Halos body of work this regular season.
LA did finish the season at 17 games over .500 at home this year, while Boston made the postseason at 3 games under .500 on the road for the year.
Not only that, but the Red Sox have struggled in Anaheim during the regular season, as the Sox are just 3-9 their last 12 at the Big "A" since 2007.
Lester will take on Lackey in this one, and if you ask the G-Man, it just seems like high-time the Angels are able to breakthrough against their postseason nemesis these past few years.
I am taking the Angels to open with a much-needed win over the Red Sox.
2♦ LA ANGELS
Craig Davis
Another free play winner on the Yankees minus the run line yesterday runs my overall free play winning record to 54-22 over my last 76 selections, including four of the last six. Tonight's free play winner is on the Angels to beat Boston and get the monkey off their backs. It's true, the Red Sox have had major success against the Angles, especially in the playoffs the past few years. But this much I know... Anaheim plays better at home and John Lackey pitched very well against the Red Sox at Fenway back in August (in his last outing vs. the dreaded Red Sox). In 7 2/3 innings pitched, Lackey allowed just 8 hits and two earned runs, yet the Angels just didn't give him enough run support. Tonight will be different. They have had a few extra days to rest injuries and get themselves in the right frame of mind to finally beat Boston in a post-season series. Boston counters with Jon Lester, who has allowed eight runs in his last three starts and hasn't had a lot of success vs. the Angels in his career. Angels clearly the right play here. Take Anaheim as your free play of the day.
4♦ LA ANGELS
Tom Freese
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia plays here with Playoff loss revenge. Philadelphia is 5-2 after allowing 5 or more goals in their last game. The Flyers are 4-1 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Pittsburgh 18-38-2 their last 58 games off a home loss and they are 2-10-2 after being shutout in their last game. The Penguins are walking into an angry group of Flyers in Philly tonight. PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA -
Jr Tipps
Red Sox at Angels
The Red Sox and Angels open their third consecutive first-round series Thursday night as the AL West champion Los Angeles will take another crack at wild card-winning Boston who has ended three of the Angels' past five seasons. Unfortuantely, it hasn't even been close for the Angels who have lost 12 of their last 13 postseason games against the Red Sox, including 9 of 10 over the last three series. Los Angeles hasn't even led Boston for eight total innings of those last 10 games, and the Angels' only win was a 12-inning nail-biter last season, snapping an 11-game losing streak in the matchup. Angels leader Tori Hunter chastised his teammates for playing nervous against the Red Sox at Fenway Park revently although the Angeles won the season series 5-4, but six of those games were played in the season's first six weeks, before either team really got itself together for another playoff run. For the Red Sox, Lester takes the mound against Lackey in Game 1, and he will have to facen one the best lineups in Angels' history. The Angels has (841) RBI'Ss (1,604) Hits with a lineup that featured nine .300 hitters as recently as mid-August. The Red Sox should be able to rely on what's been a superior bullpen this season, with Billy Wagner and Daniel Bard setting up closer Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox also can count on Takashi Saito, Ramon Ramirez and Hideki Okajima and the Angels' bullpen has been springing leaks since April, and not every hole is yet filled. Playing in Anaheim will give the Angeles a big boast and both these offesnes are to explosive and will keep the pressure on each other all night to sscore runs as these two teams knopw they never have enough runs against each other. Look for a lot of big hits tonight as both teams will keep men on base.
TAKE OVER 8
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Red Sox vs. LAA Angels
Play: Boston Red Sox
The Angels have lost 12 of their last 13 postseason games against the Red Sox, including 9 of 10 over the last 3 seasons. The Angels lone win during this stretch took 12 innings to pull off. In fact, the Angels haven't even led Boston for eight total innings over their last 3 playoff series. I'll back Boston again on the road tonight with the dominance it has had against John Lackey. Lackey enters the postseason with an 8.31 ERA over his last 3 starts and he is 3-9 (3-14 against the money line) lifetime against Boston with an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.582. On the other side of the coin, the Red Sox are 4-1 in Lester's last 5 starts vs. the Angels and 5-1 in his last 6 road starts. I'll take the Sox for 1 Unit tonight.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox vs. LAA Angels
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they face Anaheim set to start at 9:35 EST – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 137-67 making 52.7 units since 1997. Play on all teams with a money line of -100 to -150 where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season and after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 129-99 making 37 units since 2004. Play on road teams revenging a loss versus opponent as a home favorite and starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. Boston is a solid 25-9 (+12.9 Units) against the money line versus a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season; 37-6 (+27.7 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive home games this season; 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after 7 or more consecutive home games this season. Lackey is just 1-7 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Lackey limps badly into this playoff game sporting an 8.31 ERA and a 1.846 WHIP. Meanwhile Lester is coming off a gem throwing 6.3 innings allowing just 2 hits, 1 BB, and recording 7 K’s. Lester is one of the best starters in the AL and his curve and change are at times unhittable. He has allowed a 195 BA on the curve. What is remarkable is that he will throw the curve equally to LH as well as RH batters. LH pitchers are not known for throwing and challenging RH batters with pitches curving into their wheelhouse. He mixes in a solid change to RH batters that keeps them guessing. He also dominates LH batters by throwing the majority of pitches in the lower right corner (away) of the strike zone. Take Boston.
Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Edmonton Oilers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Edmonton as they host Calgary set to start at 9:30 EST. Supporting this graded play are a few HC angles. Note that Pat Quinn is a solid 174-146 against the money line (+40.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1996; 71-45 against the money line (+27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. Have to admit that I am not sure who or how they put the NHL schedule together, but this marks the second time that Calgary is visiting Edmonton. Nevertheless, the AiS shows an 88% probability that Edmonton will score 3 or more goals in this game. Note that Edmonton is a solid 22-1 making 16.8 units in games where they score 3 goals over the past 3 seasons. Take Edmonton.