Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 9

Xander Locke

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans +3½

Houston's defense is much improved from last season. They have allowed an average of just 17.4 points per game over 5 games. Houston plays Indy well at home. Last season at home Houston was leading Indy 21-3 at half time. Coach Kubiak had to leave the game for medical reasons and the the Texans lost the lead and the game 27-24.

Indy is tired after playing a very tough physical game vs Baltimore. Both teams are tired here. Look for Houston to keep this game close possibly getting the upset win.

Ray Monohan

BYU vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida -3

The Knights are not the team they were a year ago, fortunately the Cougars are not the team they were even a week ago. Last week the loss of QB Taysom Hill doomed their season. They lost the game to Utah State and with Hill out for the rest of the season things do not look promising for BYU. Even though UCF has been a huge disapointment at home against an inexperienced QB they should be able to get the victory. They have been a bit snakebit but this team is not terrible.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

UCF -2.5 over BYU: This is not a good spot for the Cougars at all. BYU entered last week's game vs Utah State with hopes of making it to the NCAA Playoffs should they win out, but that was dashed with the 35-20 loss and now even a 1 loss BYU team would not make it over any other 2 loss team in the nation. This team may be very flat in this one after having their bubble burst. Making matters worse for BYU in this one is the fact that they are also without Taysom Hill, who has not only thrown for 900+ yards this year, but was also the teams leading rusher. They really missed him last week as his backup, Christian Stewart hit just 10 or 29 passes for 172 yards, with 3 INTs and no TDs, while BYU scored just 2 second half FGs with him at the helm. Now they will take on a tougher defense than the one they faced last week and UCF will be able to worry about just Christian's passing and not running, because is not a dual threat QB like Hill was. More troubling for BYU may be a defense that has really struggling the last 3 weeks, allowing 433.7 ypg overall, 321 ypg passing and 31.8 ppg over that stretch. In contrast the UCF defense has allowed 275.4 ypg overall, 153.0 ypg passing and 19 ppg over that stretch. Let's also note that UCF has allowed just 3.1 yards per rush this year overall, including just 1.8 ypc at home. They will take a way the run and make a guy who has hit just 34.5% of his passes this year beat them. Way too many edge for the Knights here and even though their offense is not all that explosive, I just don't see BYU scoring enough to win it here.

BEST OF THE REST

UCF / BYU Under 47: You can take part of what I wrote above for this one. BYU will have trouble scoring, while UCF's slow down pace will not generate a ton of points either, but they will get enough to win and cover. 24-14 sounds about right for this one.

EZWINNERS

Indianapolis Colts -145

The home underdog looks tempting in this spot, but I'm going with the square play on this one. The Texans are off to a nice start at 3-2 but they have been out gained in yardage in all five games. The Texans have also beat three teams that have bad quarterback play in the Redskins (with RGIII), Bills (with EJ Manual) and Raiders (with Derrick Carr). The two teams that Houston has lost to has quarterbacks with top ten QBR rankings and that is exactly where Indy's Andrew Luck ranks as well. Everyone thinks that the Texans defense is solid, but when you examine the numbers they are actually near the bottom of the league. The Texans are 25th in the NFL in pass defense despite facing some weak passing offenses. That is bad news when facing Andrew Luck and a Colts offense that leads the league in passing offense. The Texans offense is pretty vanilla. Houston will try to pound the ball on the ground with Arian Foster and keep third down manageable. Rarely do they attempt to throw the ball deep but forcing Houston quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw will be key. Foster has had big games against this Indy defense in the past but I think things will be different this time around. This year's Indianapolis defense has improved from 26th in the league at stopping the run last season to 11th this season. The Colts have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and I think they can force the Texans into third and long spots by keying on the run early. Indianapolis is the best in the league in third down conversions where they are allowing just a 32% conversion rate. This is a key game that will help decide this division and the Colts have dominated this matchup in the past and I expect that to continue. I expect the Colts to cover the three but as snakebit that I've been the past few weeks I'm going to lay the extra juice on the moneyline.

DAVE COKIN

COLORADO AVALANCHE AT MINNESOTA WILD
PLAY: COLORADO AVALANCHE +125

Colorado was a huge surprise last season. The Avalanche weren’t expected to be anything special. But they responded well to the arrival of Patrick Roy as head coach, and the Avs ended up having a great regular season.

A look beyond the record indicates the Avalanche got pretty fortunate as they outperformed their metrics by a substantial margin. So I have them circled as a team that’s likely to show some decline this season, as a regression of sorts seems very likely to me. Nevertheless, this opener is one I circled as a spot to look at Colorado in the role of road dog.

As great as the regular season was for the Avs, their lasting memory from the playoffs is not nearly as pleasant. Colorado sprinted to a 2-0 lead in its series with Minnesota. But the Wild came roaring back and ended up winning the series in seven games. The reality is that Minnesota was the completely superior team in that series, and they probably should have won it a lot easier than they did.

But regardless of who dominated, there has to be some revenge on the minds of the road team tonight. That Game Seven loss was really tough, as the Avs lost a late lead in regulation and then were on the wrong side come overtime. Winning tonight cannot wipe that result out, and in fact it’s small consolation.

However, I believe the revenge motivation gets increased with this being the season opener for both teams. The very last Avalanche memory from last season is having to do the handshake routine with the team that ousted them, and that had to sting. What better way to start a new season than by spoiling the home opener for the team that knocked them out?

I think the Wild are very likely to be a better team than Colorado this season. They’ve added some offensive punch with Vanek, and as previously stated, my feel is that Colorado is going to slip some. But I’m going to play the situation and the price here. I see this as a decent mental spot for the visitors, and the dog odds are generous enough to take the plunge tonight with the Avalanche.

Sleepyj

Indianapolis Colts -2.5

This is a good spot for Indy here looking down the line. Indy has a 3-2 record and Houston holds the same record as well. One thing that has me concerned for the Texans is the slow start they get off on in games. It would be wise for Houston to get off to a good start facing the leagues #1 passing attack with Andrew Luck. This Houston defense is over-rated. They haven't faced a great QB thus far in 2014. They have played a rather weak schedule and i think that shows up against a quality bunch in Indy tonight. Neither team has ran the ball with great success but i think Houston may have the edge tonight in that dept. The deciding factor for me is quite simple. Indy is the better team with the better QB. They get out of the gate faster and they have the better defense all around in my eyes. I don't think this game is a blowout by any means. I think the Colts get out to a good size lead and maintain that lead and hold on to a late surge by Houston.

Rob Vinciletti

BYU vs. Central Florida
Play: Under 46

This game has some solid trends that point to a lower scoring game that will most likely play under the 46 point total. BYU has played under in 29 of 41 games where the spread is +3 to -3 and the last 4 times In Thursday games. On the road 10 of the last 14 have stayed under. Central Florida has played under the last 4 times as a home favorite of 3 or less and and 29 of 43 vs Non conference teams. Look for a low scoring game take the under.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

BYU Cougars +3

The loss of starting quarterback Taysom Hill was a big blow to BYU, but I think there's been a bit of an overreaction here. Backup Christian Stewart didn't play well in relief of Hill, throw 3 interceptions and leading the Cougars to just two field goals, but that was a difficult spot for him to come in. BYU was already trailing, so he had no choice but to try and make some plays down field. With a full week of practice with the 1st team offense, I look for Stewart to play a lot better against UCF.

The big key here is that the Cougars don't figure to need a whole lot of offense to win this game. The Knights have had a horrible time getting their offense going. UCF is just 98th in scoring (23.0 ypg) and 119th in total offense (281.0 ypg). A big reason for that is the play they are getting from the quarterback position, which has forced them to rely almost exclusively on their running game. That plays right into the hands of the BYU defense, which is 10th in the nation at stopping the run, holding opponents to just 98.2 ypg.

The Cougars have been an excellent team to back after a loss and a lot of the credit goes to head coach Bronco Mendenhall for getting his team to respond. BYU is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a double-digit loss at home. The Cougars also know a thing or two about playing well in Thursday games, as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in this spot.

Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Dallas
Play: Over 5½

The Blackhawks will play their season opener in Dallas, in a game that features two of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Hawks are Stanley Cup champs in 2010 and 2013, Chicago should be eager to make another championship run. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are still in the prime of their careers.

Chicago ranked 2nd in the NHL scoring an average of 3.18 goals per game last season, and Dallas wasn't far behind. The Stars added Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky in the off-season, which should make their second line better than most team's top line. If there is any doubt whether or not Dallas is a contender, it's the defense and goaltending that is considered a question mark.

The Stars allowed an average of 2.71 goals per game last season, the most of any team that made the playoffs. Kari Lehtonen posted a 2.41 GAA last year, but he hasn't had much success against Chicago. The Stars #1 goaltender is 0-4-2 with a 3.96 GAA in six home starts versus the Hawks.

These teams have seen the total go over in six of the last seven head to head meetings.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Winnipeg vs. Arizona
Play: Under 5½

The Winnipeg Jets have been in Manitoba for three years now, but have yet to make the playoffs. Winnipeg is 1-8-1 in the last 10 meetings in Arizona and has an inconsistent offense. Aside from a new coach for a full season, the Jets are largely the same team that they were last season. Arizona struggled to score goals last year and is on a 21-8-1 run under the total. For years, the largest question mark for the Coyotes has been on offense. The team fields few, if any, of the league leaders in goals or assists in any given season. But this season, goals may be even harder to come by. The inability to sign Radim Vrbata over the summer, coupled with circumstances outside of the team's control that led to the dismissal of last year's major free agent signing, Mike Ribeiro, left the Coyotes without two of the team's top five most productive players. The defense is good and the under is 13-3 in the Coyote's last 16 home games and the under is 17-5 against the Western Conference. And when these teams meet the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Will Rogers

New Jersey Devils vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Philadelphia Flyers -128

The Philadelphia Flyers are back on the ice tonight, hosting the New Jersey Devils at the Wells Fargo Center. Philly lost on late goal that broke a 1-1 tie in last night's season opener in Boston. The Flyers played well enough to win, and a similar effort tonight would likely be good enough to earn two points against the Devils.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Lack Of Scoring - The Devils ranked near the bottom of the NHL, averaging just 2.40 goals per game last year. Their leading scorer Jaromir Jagr is now 43 years old, and eventually father time will come knocking. "It's no secret that we have to score more goals," captain Bryce Salvador said. "It's been a focal point all throughout the off-season."

2. Home Cookin' - The Flyers had the second best home record in the Metropolitan Division last season, going 24-14-3, while the Devils really struggled on the road posting a record of 14-18-9 away from home.

3. X-Factor - The Flyers owned the third best power-play in the NHL last season, and they should own a significant advantage in special teams tonight.

Nick Parsons

Winnipeg vs. Arizona
Play: Under 5½

Winnipeg is 1-8-1 in their last 10 games in Arizona. The Jet’s offense is not the most consistent in the league and the Phoenix offense is not much better. Arizona is on a 21-8-1 under run for the total. Their offense hasn’t gotten any better over the offseason losing two of their top five most productive players. The Coyotes defense is good and in their last 16 games at home the under is 13-3. In the last 5 games between the two the under is 4-1.

Sam Martin

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

After scoring a relatively easy ATS cover on the Colts last Sunday, we'll come right back with Indy in this Thursday night matchup at Houston. We've been big on the Colts and jumping on the line value after the linesmaker wasn't giving them enough credit after their 0-2 start. But with losses against Denver and Philadelphia, the Colts finally faced better teams in terms of matching up defensively.

Indy could always score, and they've put up at least 20 points in all five games this season. Colts win or lose depending on how they defend, and we believe they can contain this Houston offense that isn't a great passing team. Houston relies heavily on the run and the Colts have done a pretty good job in that department allowing 102 rushing ypg. Colts are averaging a full 10 ppg more than Houston, and with the Texans unable to run they can't keep up on the scoreboard!

Andy Iskoe

Colts at Texans
Play: Texans

After starting the season with losses to Denver and Philadelphia, Indianapolis has reeled off three straight wins. The last two have been at home where the Colts have performed much better than on the road. Houston rallied in Dallas last week before falling in overtime. Defensive lineman J J Watt remains Houston’s best player and he will challenge Indy QB Andrew Luck who, while well on his way to elite status, still is prone to the interception. Monitor this line as getting over a FG would make this an even stronger play in a game the Texans could well win straight up. One of my most reliable models which looks at 4 key factors in each matchup all line up on the Texans in this game which makes for strong plays on underdogs as this model focuses on forecasting straight up results.