Bruce Marshall
BYU at Central Florida
Pick: Under
Obviously, bad stuff for BYU last week against Utah State, notonly dropping decision vs. Utags but also losing QB Taysom Hill to injury, Backup Christian Stewart struggled in relief, but with several days of taking snaps with the first team, expect a more polished effort tonight. Expect BYU to circle wagons and challenge UCF with physicality. Not impressed with early efforts of rebuilt Knights, who are fortunate not to be 1-3 after Houston fumbled as it was about to score winning TD in last minute a week ago. Still, absence of Hill and competent defenses both ways suggests "under" tonight in Orlando.
Steve Janus
Central Florida -2½
BYU is simply not the same team without Taysom Hill and it's not just his injury that has me playing the Knights at home. The Cougars came into this season with the goal of going undefeated and playing in a New Years Day bowl. Those dreams were put to rest with last week's loss to Utah State. Coming off an emotional rivalry game combined with the loss of their best player, will likely have BYU coming out flat.
UCF on the other hand is a team that's starting to gain some momentum. The Knights went on the road and upset a good Houston team 17-12 last week for their 2nd straight win. UCF is giving up just 106 rushing yards/game and only 3.1 yards/carry. BYU is going to have to rely almost exclusively on their running game, which isn't going to be as effective without the threat of Hill keeping the ball. I look for the Cougars offense to really struggle to get anything going in this one and for UCF to take advantage of a deflated BYU defense.
System - Road teams who are averaging 440+ ypg against a defense that is allowing 330 to 390 ypg after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game are just 55-101 (35%) ATS since 1992.
Soccer Authority
Moldova v Austria
Pick: Austria
Moldova and Austria meet on Thursday night in Group G. After the draw at home against Sweden in the last round,Austria now looks for points against Moldovain order to close in on the top of the table.Moldova lost in the last round to Montenegro, 2-0, but this was no real surprise because Montenegro have a much stronger side! Moldova tend to play a little better at home, but I think in this group they don’t have a chance of qualifying, because teams like Russia, Sweden, Montenegro and Austria are all much better than them.Austria have no major injury problems within their squad and they will probably play with the same team as the played against Sweden, except recovered goalkeeper Lindner, who is likely to be in goal. All in all, Austria are favourite for this match and rightly so. If they have any desire to qualify for the European Championships then this is a must win game!
Larry Ness
Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars
Pick: Dallas Stars
Dallas is poised to join the ranks of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season after breaking a five-year postseason drought last year. After losing to Anaheim in six games in the first round of the playoffs last year, the Stars are now expecting to make a deeper run in the playoffs. Dallas has some of the best young talent in the NHL with 25-year old Jamie Benn (34 goals, 79 points) joined by 22-year old Tyler Seguin on their top-line. The Stars then added significant heft for their second line from Ottawa in Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky who combined for 36 goals and 73 assists for the Senators last season.
Dallas has an immediate opportunity to make a statement against a Blackhawks team tonight that has hoisted the Stanley Cup twice over the last five years. However, this Chicago team was not nearly as formidable on the road last year where the Blackhawks dropped 20 of their last twenty-eight games. Dallas, on the other hand, closed out last year winning seven of its last nine games in front of the home fans. Priced at about even-money, take the Stars on their home ice.
Wunderdog
Winnipeg vs. Arizona
Pick: Winnipeg +130
The Coyotes name may be changed, but this could be a long season in the desert as the owner has placed budget constraints on the team, and they did little to improve themselves. In fact, they may take a step back as Radim Vrbata and his 20 goals from last season have departed to Vancouver. The Jets have a bit more firepower here with four players that all reached the 20 goal mark last season are returning. Mike Ribeiro is also gone from a weak Arizona attack, making two of their top four scorers from last season gone for 2014-15. The Coyotes finished 1-7 last season, and that might be how they start in 2014-15. The Jets are 4-0 in the last four meetings, and should get off to a quick start and valued road win. Take Winnipeg.
SPORTS WAGERS
HOUSTON +3 over Indianapolis
There are a lot of games to choose from today but this is one of them that’s not going to make our board because it smells very much like that Cincinnati/New England game last week. Every Thursday Night game thus far has been a 20 or more point victory. Most of them have been by more than that and most of them have been over by the end of the first quarter. The books have been buried by these easy games and oddsmakers are more aware of that fact than anyone. They had to know that by posting a small number on the explosive Colts that they were going to take a fortune in Indianapolis money and a pork-chop in Houston money. After all, the Colts are on a 3-0 run and they have scored 105 points over that span while the Texans three wins have come against Washington Oakland and Buffalo and they were the second best team on the field in all those games. The Texans were also smoked by the Giants recently while Indy’s two losses have come against Philly and Denver.
The Texans are certainly better than last year but last year’s bar was never that high. We also have Ryan Fitzpatrick against Andrew Luck, a clear mismatch in the Colts’ favor. Luck already had an easy time with the Texans in the past and he’s thrown for over 300 yards in four of the Colts’ five games. He also went off for 312 yards last week against the Ravens. The Texans defense is giving up big yardage to quarterbacks who are not in the same class as Luck. The Texans also feature a horrible rushing defense that has allowed monster games to DeMarco Murray and Rashad Jennings recently. Furthermore, the Colts are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against the AFC South, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. Can we make a case for fading them? Absolutely not and nor could anyone else. Again, when something looks too good, it raises red flags. Surely the oddsmakers could have made the Colts a -3 or -3½ point favorite and not swayed a single bet. Hell, they could have made the Colts a 6-point choice and not swayed many. But they didn’t and that is a tell-tale sign to tread carefully before pulling the trigger on the chalk. The oddsmakers want us to play the favorite and that spells T-R-A-P.
Pass NCAAF
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS +102 over Chicago
OT included. In only a year and a half on the job, Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill (he was the mastermind in the building of the Red Wings) has done an outstanding job of rebuilding the Stars team into a contender. It began last year with the acquisition of Tyler Seguin. Nill also pulled off a great trade by acquiring Jason Spezza from Ottawa in exchange for Alex Chaisson. Nill also acquired Ales Hemsky and all he did was put up 17 points in 20 games after joining Dallas. Those players will also be surrounded by emerging stars such as Valeri Nichushkin, Antoine Roussel, Ryan Garbutt, and Cody Eakin. The veteran presence will be there as well with Erik Cole, Vernon Fiddler and Shawn Horcoff. The Stars defense is solid and getting better. Alex Goligoski and Trevor Daley will log plenty of minutes. Jordie Benn should see additional ice time as he continues to develop and the same goes for Brenden Dillon. Sergei Gonchar remains a veteran presence that is vital to the development of younger guys and although his minutes will be reduced, he’s been around long enough to be a real asset. Dallas is locked and loaded and this could be the year they change the power landscape in the West.
The Blackhawks need no introductions. They are a strong team that will remain strong with the core pieces still in place. They have been a strong Cup Contender for several years now and they figure to be contender again this year. This one is not about fading Chicago. This one is all about Dallas setting the bar for themselves at a high level. The Stars have to establish their home as one of the most difficult places to play like the rest of the juggernauts. San Jose, Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston, St. Louis and Detroit in their heyday all made it a living hell for the opposition to come in and leave with a win. If Dallas is serious about being a contender they have to establish that too and it must start here on opening night and we’ll put that to the test right away.
New Jersey +106 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Flyers played last night in Boston and while they were close, losing 2-1, their time in the offensive zone was weak. In fact, the Flyers mustered a measly 20 shots on net while being outshot by twice as many in both the first and third periods. The Flyers switched coaches at the start of last year because of a poor start but truth be told, Craig Berube hasn’t shown us anything different than what was deemed to be unacceptable from Peter Laviolette’s style of play. Philadelphia is underwhelming in so many ways, especially on defense where they possess at least three different players that can’t move the puck out in Mark Streit, Andrew MacDonald and Brayden Coburn. Michael Del Zotto adds some offensive firepower to the blue-line but he, too, is weak defensively.
The market has all but forgotten about the Devils. They were projected to win 36 or 37 games this year by that same market (total wins for season was 36½), which was less than the Maple Leafs total wins posted total of 38. That's ludicrous that Toronto's win total was higher. That said, let us remind you that Marty Brodeur started 39 games a year ago and the Devils lost 18 games in extra time and missed the playoffs by five points. Brodeur was pure garbage all season. That’s no longer an issue, as Cory Schneider will carry a heavy workload and may turn out to be one of the best in the business. Furthermore, the Devils allowed the least amount of shots in the entire league last year, which is a true testament to their ability to stay the course and allow the opposition to make mistakes. Last year it was a case of one soft goal after another. Rarely did the Devils get out-played for long stretches and this year they are better. You are going to read about how this team cannot score goals but that’s not their style. Besides, they aren’t going to be as offensively challenged as advertised. They have some firepower with Adam Henrique (who missed a lot of time last year), Mike Cammalleri, Michael Ryder and of course the ageless Jaromir Jagr, who can still play at a very high level. The Devils come in this year more under the radar than they’ve been in a very long time. We’re suggesting that they will be one of the top teams in the East and certainly and one of this year’s early surprises. We’re glad to back them as a pooch almost anytime and make no exceptions here against this very beatable Philly club.
EDMONTON -½ +111 over Calgary
Regulation only. The Flames were outclassed and out-worked last night at home in its opener against the Canucks. They figure to be a bit better tonight but they could not shut down or contain the Canucks best line Henrik, Daniel and Radim Vrbata and they must now deal with much more firepower than that. Vancouver’s top line made the Flames look like school children and that’s a huge concern that is not going to be fixed overnight.
The knock on the Oilers has been a team with top-end talent that never deliver the goods. Edmonton has at least three all-stars (Eberle, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins) that can all dazzle. The Oilers aslo picked up Teddy Purcell from the Bolts and a bounce back from Neil Yakupov is not out of the question. That kid has talent too. Statistically, however, they were not a strong team because of a weak defense and very inconsistent goaltending. Those areas needed a big fix and the Oilers addressed it by picking up Ben Scrivens last year. Although Scrivens only played with Edmonton for a short while last season, the amount of success he saw in that short period was encouraging. Scrivens managed to post a 3.01 goals-against-average and a .916 save percentage. Defensively, Edmonton acquired Mark Fayne from the Devils. Fayne will be a great fit into Edmonton’s defense, as he is a big presence, he’s reliable and he comes from a great defensive system in New Jersey. Despite struggling with the Columbus Blue Jackets last season, Nikita Nikitin is expected to be a low risk/high-reward player. Nikitin has a great shot and is backed up with strong skating skills. These new defensemen, in addition to the strong players the Oilers already have, like Andrew Ference and Justin Schultz create a great situation for the Oilers to keep pressure off their goaltenders. Once again the Oilers have great promise. A loss here to the Flames would put a huge dent in that promise. The Oilers have to set a tone and they have to beat teams they are capable of beating otherwise the stench of underachieving will permeate quickly. We’re trusting that they come out strong tonight in their opener and avoid all the “here we go again” talk.
Don Anthony
Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Colorado Avalanche +115
We saw last night a revenge motivated Sharks knock off the LA Kings from eliminating them from the post season and I believe we see the same thing here as well with Colorado getting revenge from the Wild. The last thing the Avs remember is their season ending in Minnesota last year and what better way to start the season by paying them back by beating them in the same scenario. Money is coming in on the dog here and we'll follow by backing the Colorado Avalanche Thursday night.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Indianapolis Under 47: The Houston Texans will play allot of low scoring games this year, because the will not score a bunch and they will not give up a bunch. The Texans play a bend but don't break style on defense as they are ranked 26th in yards allowed but 4th in points allowed (17.4 ppg), while on offense they are a very conservative team and average just 20.8 ppg. They are a solid running team and that will help keep the Indy offense off the field and the clock running. For Indy they are a strong offensive team, but this is the best defense they will have faced this year. When they score it will not be with big chuck plays vs the Texans, which means long time consuming drives. The Under is 16-5 in the Colts last 21 vs the AFC South, while the Under is 6-1 the last 7 in this series and I expect both trends to continue here.
Dr. Bob
UCF (-3½) 27 BYU 24
My Best Bet on Utah State +21 against BYU last Friday night was well in hand before the Cougars lost their star quarterback Taysom Hill to injury, as the Aggies led 28-14 before backup Christian Stewart entered the game. Stewart was horrible, completing just 9 of 28 passes before a completion on the final play against a Utah State defense playing 30 yards off the line of scrimmage (I took that play out of my stats). Hill was only a bit better than average throwing the ball and Stewart appears to be worse after averaging just 4.2 yards per pass play against Utah State. I do expect Stewart to be better with a week of practice with the first team offense and I applied the standard drop from an experienced starter to an inexperienced starter and project BYU’s pass attack to be 0.8 yards per play worse than average with Stewart pulling the trigger. The bigger issue for BYU is the loss of Hill’s running, as Hill is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation and had racked up 532 yards at 7.3 yards per running play in just 4 ½ games this season. BYU’s rushing attack rates at 1.0 yards per rushing play better than average but the running backs are just average and Stewart doesn’t appear to be a runner based on his 20 yards on 6 scampers last week. Overall, BYU’s offense goes from a season rating of 0.6 yards per play better than average to 0.3 yppl wore than average without Hill, which is worth about 6 points. It appears that adjustment has been made, as my model favors UCF by 3.0 points after adjusting for Hill being out.
What appears to be adjusted incorrectly is the total, which I would have projected at 58 points with Hill playing for BYU. The total on this game opened at 47 ½ points and has been bet down to 44 ½ points. That’s too low based on my math. BYU may be 0.3 yppl worse than average with Stewart at quarterback but UCF is just average defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team) and BYU is projected to gain 374 yards at 5.1 yppl. UCF’s offense is a bit below average (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) and BYU is average defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. Normally, the projection for an offense that is -0.2 yppl going against an average defense at home would be 5.5 yppl. However, my model predicts that the Golden Knights will throw the ball more often than they normally do since their poor rushing attack (3.6 yprp) isn’t likely to have any success against a really good BYU run defense that’s allowed just 3.4 yprp this season. BYU, however, is 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average defending the pass (6.0 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.2 yppp against an average team) and UCF quarterback Justin Holman has been 1.5 yppp better than average at 6.9 yppp againt teams that would allow just 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Teams generally throw more often against BYU because that’s the only way they can move the ball against the Cougars and UCF did throw it more than the ran it against Penn State and Missouri while sticking more to the ground attack against Bethune Cookman and Houston, who are not particularly good defending the run. With UCF throwing the ball more their yards per play projection goes to 5.9 yppl in this game and I forecast 399 yards of offense.
The 773 combined total yards I project in this game is dependent on BYU continuing to run their up tempo no huddle offense with their new quarterback and there is no evidence that they won given that the Cougars average 3.2 plays per minute of possession for the season and they ran 44 plays in 11.0 minutes with Stewart in the game last week, which is an even faster pace of 4.0 plays per minute. If BYU runs their offense at the same pace as usual and UCF maintains their already slow pace then I would project 141.6 total plays (which is actually a bit lower than the national average for total plays). The teams are expected to combine for 5.46 yards per play and it all adds up to 51.5 total points. There is a chance that BYU will alter their pace even though they didn’t do so after Stewart entered the game last week, so I won’t make the Over a Best Bet. However, I will consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 46 points or less.
Mike O'Connor
Indianapolis (-2.5) 26 HOUSTON 22
In a battle for the division lead, the Colts travel this week to take on the Texans in Houston in a primetime Thursday night contest. After beating the Ravens last week at home where they have been very good, Indianapolis now travels on a short week to face a Texans team that has been better than expected so far this season. Both teams should be able to move the ball in this one at an above average rate both on the ground and in the air as neither defense has been very good, although the Colts defense has played better lately and really shut down the Ravens offense last week. Overall, the Colts are the better team but have had some issues with their offensive line that could be a problem this week with JJ Watt on the other side. There are several situations in play on this one that favor the Texans that are 150-101-4, 25-7-1 and a negative 8-40-3 situation that plays against the Colts. My model favors Indianapolis by almost four points and there have been some circumstances that have skewed results in the Texans favor so far this year that will keep me off of this game. First off, they are tied for third in turnover differential at +4 and some of that can be attributed to positive fumble luck. Second, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played efficiently and at a level that is above his career average so although it is a new system and a new team, I expect some drop-off moving forward. Also, the Texans have been the beneficiaries of several non-offensive touchdowns/plays which are largely non-predictive. The sum of it is that this is a team that my ratings say may be a bit overvalued.
With Andrew Luck on the other side and a team that has a new coaching staff including a rookie NFL head coach in Bill O’Brien on the Texans side working on a short week and not having gone through this routine before, I’ll lean to the Colts.
Dana Lane
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets -114
The Buffalo Sabres sure made a lot of moves in the offseason in hopes of catching the Boston Bruins in the East but I'm never quick to back teams that have made moves to change their team chemistry especially when the 2013-14 season showed there wasn't any to begin with. I'd rather wait until they've had a chance to form more of a cohesive unit before I financially back them. The Jackets were in this same position a year ago and now should display a more mature team as they eye a return to the playoffs. Veteran Scott Hartnell will no doubt add a much needed edge to the Jackets young blue line. They also just resigned leading scorer, Ryan Johansen (33 goals, 30 assists) to a three-year, $12 million contract extension, ending a holdout. Columbus finished the pre-season 7-1-1. I have little desire to back a team who owned the worst record in the NHL by 14 points.
The Duke's Sports
Houston +3
Bill O'Brien is a much underrated coach who will have his men prepared. Sure, Foster says he hates playing on Thursday Nights but the fact is that he has performed very well on Thursday nights and he will be hard to stop. I also know that the mismatch of QBs with Luck clearly the best signal caller in the stadium; however, Fitzpatrick should lock in at home with talented receiving corps. And yes, the Colts are a dominant 7-0 SU on the road on Thursday nights. However, the Texans are overdue to get untracked after their tight loss but cover last Sunday. We'll look for Texans' DC Crennel to draw up a strong game plan to limit Luck and company. And keep in mind the home team in this series is 7-1 ATS and home teams on prime time (exception Washington on MNF) have been covering. Colts struggle in Week 6 at 0-3-1 ATS. The Texans' crowd will be up for this and we'll take the points.
Vegas Butcher
New Jersey Devils +100
Last season the Devils ranked 4th in Corsi% (5 on 5, Close). Only LA, Chicago, and Boston ranked higher in this advanced puck-possession metric. Chicago and Boston also ranked in the top-3 in total goals scored, while the Kings ranked 25th there. LA was able to compensate for poor ability to put goals in net by possessing the puck (keeping it away from the opponent) and of course defense and goal-tending, where they ranked 4th overall last year. By comparison, Devils ranked 27th in total goals. Unlike the Kings, they ranked 25th in Save%. Part of the reason is because Brodeur started 39 games for them last year. Brodeur has been a terrible goalie for the last 4 years now and last season he averaged a 2.5 GAA and only a 90.1% Sv%. Schneider, playing on the same team and starting 43 games last year, had a 1.97 GAA and a 92.1% Sv%. That’s an absolutely huge differential. For their careers, Brodeur has a 91.2% Sv% (which is right around the 91.5% mark that most goalies seem to be trending towards long-term) while Schneider’s career mark is 92.5%, which is even higher than Dominik Hasek’s career mark of 92.2%, the highest I’ve seen from all so-called ‘all-time great’ goal-keepers. I think it’s safe to assume that New Jersey’s defense and goal-tending should improve just due to the fact that Brodeur is gone. Strong ability to possess the puck, hopefully a few more goals in the net (Havlat and Cammalleri joined the team this year), and of course potentially the best goal-keeper in the league in the net for the Devils this year. Flyers weren’t that impressive yesterday and they’re on a back-to-back after facing a tough Boston team last night. Maybe all these factors is the reason why the odds dropped 20-cents at Pinny when Philly is getting about 60% of all the bets. I’ll follow this reverse-odds movement (ROM) and back the Devils tonight.
Harry Bondi
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-2.5) over BYU
Just can't see BYU being emotionally into this game tonight after the team's season went down in flames last week. Not only did the Cougars suffer their first loss of the season, blowing any chance of them crashing the new NCAA Final Four Playoff Party, but they also lost all-everything QB Taysom Hill for the season to a leg injury. Central Florida has played very good defense this season, particularly against the run, and that will put all kinds of added pressure on BYU back-up QB Christian Stewart, who was awful in relief of Hill last week against Utah State, completing just 10-for-29 passes for 172 yards, no TDs and three interceptions. Lay the short number.