Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 11

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-5 loss in New York and come into tonight's contest with a 5-1 record in Alex Cobb's last 6 starts against the Yankees. Tampa Bay is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100)

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 15.770; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.332
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Under

Game 903-904: Arizona at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 13.937; San Francisco (Peavy) 16.530
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-185); Over

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.586; Philadelphia (Burnett) 16.577
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under

Game 907-908: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 16.028; NY Mets (Colon) 14.650
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Over

Game 909-910: Miami at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 14.274; Milwaukee (Fiers) 15.720
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Over

Game 911-912: Minnesota at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 16.387; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.204
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+195); Under

Game 913-914: Oakland at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 14.823; White Sox (Sale) 16.397
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.566; NY Yankees (Pineda) 14.097
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Under

Game 917-918: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Rasmus) 14.312; Texas (Martinez) 15.204
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+150); Under

Game 919-920: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 14.024; Kansas City (Hendriks) 15.685
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Over

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Cleveland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.220; Cleveland (House) 15.685
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Marc Lawrence

Louisiana Tech at North Texas
Prediction: Louisiana Tech

Edges - Bulldogs: 5-0 ATS off SU underdog win, including 4-0 SU and ATS last four. Mean Green: facing five foes with revenge from last season. With North Texas pulling off a double-digit win over the Bulldogs last season despite being outs tatted in the yards, we recommend a 1-unit play on Louisiana Tech.

Sam Martin

Louisiana Tech at North Texas
Prediction: North Texas

After getting blown out by a very good Oklahoma team in their opener, the linesmaker overreacted to that final score and had Louisiana Tech as a huge 15.5-point underdog last week at Louisiana Lafayette. LA Tech not only covered that game, but won outright by a comfortable 28-point margin. Now, the linesmakers have overreacted again, having them as a small underdog this week at North Texas.

We'll back the home side here getting tremendous line value, along with fading an LA Tech squad that is in an obvious letdown spot after a rivalry win as a huge underdog. North Texas gave up just eight rushing yards last week against SMU, and they have a massive matchup advantage with their rush offense, which put up 245 yards last week in their blowout win against the Mustangs and now face an LA Tech defense that has given up 183 and 178 rushing yards in their first two games this season.

Rob Vinciletti

Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -135

The Sox have C. Sale going and he has better numbers than Oakland Starter S. Kazmir who has really struggled of late. In fact Kazmir has a 13.51 era in his last 3 starts and a career 5.69 era vs Chicago. Sale for the Sox has a 2.89 era vs Oakland and has won 10 of 14 at home with a 2.56 era. In his last 3 starts he has a solid 1.89 era. Oakland is 2-13 on the road when the total is 7 or less as they are 2-11 as a road dog from +100 to +125. Now for the system. We want to play on home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home dog win and scored 2 or less runs and had 5 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road favored loss and had 2 or less runs also on 5+ hits if that home team won by 1 run. These home teams are 17-6 since 2004. Its smooth Saleing today as Chicago takes the finale from Oakland.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Bruce Marshall

Twins at Indians
Pick: Over

There's an early start for this one as part of a Thursday doubleheader due to Wednesday's rainout. Cleveland is running out of time to make a bid for the final AL playoff spots and has hurt itself with sluggish offense lately (just 13 runs scored in the past five games) but gets to take swings against Twins starter Kyle Gibson, who has been laboring, with a 5.45 ERA over his last six outings. Included in that stretch is a 7-5 loss to Cleveland on Aug. 19 in which he was charged with five runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Miami Marlins

The Marlins are 13-6 in their last 19 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Starter Nathan Eovaldi rarely walks anyone and has a 3.49 ERA on the road. The Brewers are 2-14 against a right-handed starter. Miami has plenty of offensive punch, 10th in baseball in on base percentage, and heads to Milwaukee, a great home run park. The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter and face righty Mike Fiers. The Brewers are 6-18 in their last 24 vs. a team with a losing record and 1-5 in Fiers' last 6 home starts against a team with a losing record.

Ben Burns

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -148

The Brewers finally put one in the win column Wednesday, beating the Marlins 4-1. I'll back them here yet again with Michael Fiers pitching as he's been the one on the mound for three of their four wins previous to yesterday.

In six starts, Fiers is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. He hasn't lost in four starts here at home. Opponents are hitting just .166 against him overall.

On offense, Ryan Braun is expected back tonight. That's a big lift for an offense that has been struggling.

I'll also repeat something I said yesterday. Coming into this series, Miami was just 3-14 its last 17 games at Miller Park.

Marlins starter Nathan Eovaldi has not pitched well of late. The team has lost each of his last five starts and in the last three he has an ERA of 5.51 and WHIP of 1.84. On the road this season, Eovaldi has a team start record of 3-10.

I think Milwaukee is due to pick up another win here.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Jonathan Jorcin

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -146

The Milwaukee Brewers finally got a much needed win, and for the first time in over two weeks looks to get back to back wins. They have just the pitcher on the hill in Mike Fiers who is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA, and an even better 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA since being recalled from triple-a. He has struggled in his career outings versus the Marlins going 0-2 with a 5.06 ER, but those outing were all in 2012, and can be thrown out. He is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, and the Brewers will have Ryan Braun back in the lineup after he sat out of Tuesday’s game.

While Fiers has all my confidence, Eovaldi has the same confidence that he will not pitch well. Eovaldi is in the midst of a 12 game streak where he is 1-7 and has only totaled 8 runs of support in the stretch. Their best offense is Giancarlo Stanton, but his away number are nowhere near as impressive as his home at-bats. Against Milwaukee last time out, Eovaldi gave up all 6 runs in an eventual 6-0 loss. Eovaldi has taken his team to 0-5 in the last 5 when he starts at pitcher, while Mike Fiers and the Brewers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts for his club. Take the Brewer to string two games in a row here.

Joe Gavazzi

Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas
Play: Louisiana Tech +4

Each of these teams off huge in-state rivalry wins! N. Texas used a +5 net TO margin and a 245-9 overland edge for a 43-6 victory vs. SMU, a 33 point cover. An equally shocking result saw LA Tech win outright 48-20 as 12 point underdog at LA Lafayette. A balanced 533 offensive yards and a +3 net TO margin were the difference in the 40 point spread win. Linemaker more impressed with the Tech performance, which has seen them cover both games to date by a combined 52 points, this following a 4-13 ATS slide, to enter 2014. Must, however, respect the 7-1 ATS streak of the Mean Green on their home turf!

Jack Jones

Washington Nationals -110

Great value here on the Washington Nationals (82-62), who have all but wrapped up first place in the NL East. However, they are still fighting for home-field advantage throughout the postseason. They are neck-and-neck with the Los Angeles Dodgers (83-63) for that spot.

The Nationals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Tanner Roark. The right-hander has been nothing shy of dominant this season, going 12-10 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 28 starts. Roark is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Mets.

New York (71-75) is hot right now, but it is overvalued as a result. Bartolo Colon has been solid this season at 13-11 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 27 starts, but he has shown signs of wearing down of late. Colon is 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.

The Mets are 4-20 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

Jimmy Boyd

New York Yankees -107

The Yankees are showing outstanding value as a small home favorite against the Rays on Thursday. New York evened up the series at 1-1 with a 8-5 win last night and I look for them to close it out with another victory. The Yankees will be sending out arguably their best starter in Michael Pineda, who in 9 starts this season has compiled a 1.80 ERA and 0.840 WHIP. Pineda has been even better than that at home, where he's got a 1.08 ERA and 0.760 WHIP.

The Rays are countering with a top notch starter of their own in Alex Cobb, but he's not nearly as dominant on the road as he is at home. Cobb has a 2.44 ERA at home, compared to a 3.30 ERA on the road. An important stat here is that Cobb has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last 2 starts for just the 4th time this season. In the previous 3 times in this spot, he's failed to pitch past the 6th inning in his next start and all 3 have resulted in losses for the Rays.

New York is 7-2 in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record and are an impressive 13-4 when playing on Thursday this season. Tampa Bay is just 1-4 in Cobb's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series and 1-4 in his last 5 as a road underdog.

Road teams that are hitting .260 or worse on the season against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games are just 15-48 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Yankees.

Nelly

Twins / Indians Under Game 1

With an early start Thursday after yesterday's rainout and a double-header on tap the first game could be a quick pitching duel. The 'under' has hit in six of the last eight Cleveland games with Cleveland topping three runs just twice in the last 10 games. In that span the Indians are batting just .230 vs. right-handed pitching. Minnesota has featured strong second half offensive numbers overall but it has come with the occasional big outing rather than consistent success. The Twins actually beat Corey Kluber in August in a 4-1 result but the right-hander has been a legitimate Cy Young candidate this season with a 2.47 ERA and incredible strikeout numbers. He has delivered at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six starts and at home he owns a 1.01 WHIP. D.J. Santana and Jordan Schafer are questionable for the double-header and the Twins are likely to feature a lesser lineup for the early game today. Kyle Gibson has not been consistent this season but he is capable of a high end dominant outing and he has actually pitched better on the road. The Twins have lost his last four starts but he is not allowing many hits and he has also pitched far better in day games this season. This total has only been adjusted slightly downward compared with last night's matchup despite Kluber replacing T.J. House.

Jeff Clement

Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Over 7

The Over is 6-1 last 7 Colon starts for the Mets and the Over is 5-2 last 7 Roark road starts against teams with losing records for Washington. The Over is 6-2-1 last 9 Washington games following a loss and the Over is 11-4-3 last 18 meetings between these teams.

Jesse Schule

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians

The Twins upset the Tribe in Cleveland last night, but I don't fancy their chances here in Game 2 tonight. Cleveland has been very good at home all season, and tonight's pitching matchup favoris the home team. T.J. House will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he's undefeated in his last four starts. House (2-3, 3.71 ERA) allowed a single run on seven hits over seven innings in a home win over the White Sox his last time out. He's 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in five starts at home this season, and he's 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA in two previous starts versus the Twins. Minnesota will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who has struggled on the road all season long. He's 2-5 with a rather swollen 7.08 ERA in a dozen appearances on the road. He's also allowed a dozen runs on 21 hits while going 0-1 in three previous meetings with Cleveland. Mike Aviles is 7-for-11 with a home run and four RBIs lifetime versus Nolasco.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package