Ari Atari
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Los Angeles Angels -177
The Angels are a team that's on fire while the Rangers are on ice. Texas is out of touch with reality right now, which is to play the game professionally to the best of your abilities. All they want is to pack up their lockers and go hunting for something other than a win.
Let's feed the fire with LA and put aside all the stats I could throw at you that completely favors the Angels in a ridiculously overstacked way. Trends, ERAs, motivation, momentum, all that good stuff should be inserted here but I won't go there today. My MLB record is 52-26 with a 67% win rate. Those who follow my unit values through SportsAtari's star value system are up 116.1% for a season that has been profitable with the right values and plays with discipline and robotic betting actions to keep plugging away without emotion.
Steve Janus
North Texas -3½
I think this is a great spot to jump on North Texas at home against a Louisiana Tech team that's getting a lot of love for going on the road and beating a Sun Belt team. It was a against the favorite to win the Sun Belt in Louisiana-Lafayette, but I was more impressed with North Texas' 43-6 win over SMU.
Dan McCarney is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. In just his 3rd season on the job, he took the Mean Green to their first bowl game since 2004 last year and his team responded with a 36-14 win over UNLV to finish the year 9-4. There were some concerns with the Mean Green only returning 9 starters, but there's a lot more talent here than people realize.
My biggest reasoning for backing the Mean Green is due to this being an awful spot for Louisiana Tech. This will be the Bulldogs third straight road game to open the season, which is a difficult task in it's own right. It's even that much harder with a short week of preparation. I just don't see Louisiana Tech playing up to their potential in this spot.
Key Trends - Louisiana Tech is 2-14 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing their last 2 on the road, while North Texas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when listed as a favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 6 or less days of rest.
System - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 29-7 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Nick Parsons
Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas
Play: Over 47
It is very simple- Both teams have the offenses to score at will and I am not sure the defenses can do anything about it if they wanted to! Louisiana Tech defeated Louisiana‚ 48-20‚ after scoring double-digit points in the final three quarters. North Texas beat the SMU Mustangs‚ 43-6.
These two programs have met 12 times on the field in their histories‚ with the series deadlocked‚ 6-6.
Louisiana Tech racked up 533 total yards‚ including 238 on the ground. North Texas were a well-oiled machine offensively last week‚ accounting for 353 yards - 245 of which came in the running game.
These two teams looked alot better than their showing in week one.Louisiana Tech was deadly in both the ground and air attacks‚ allowing them to run wild and score on touchdown runs of 99 and 32 yards. North Texas however‚ showed that they have the defensive potential to limit an opposing running game. The biggest question is the continuity at quarterback‚ and whether North Texas can get a viable passing game going against Louisiana Tech. The homefield advantage will be huge for North Texas in this one‚ but will it be enough to slow down a potentially strong Bulldogs offense?
I think This game goes over the total easily today.
DAVE COKIN
OAKLAND ATHLETICS AT CHICAGO WHITE SOX
PLAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -130
There aren’t manny good spots to take the White Sox these days. They’re limping to the finish line with another losing season locked up. But as written out in today’s commentary, the A’s are basically coming apart at the seams, and prospects for a quick turnaround today aren’t the best.
Chris Sale probably won’t get more than a handful of Cy Young votes, but he’s having another great season for the White Sox. Sale can dominate any lineup in the game when he’s right. But he’s also capable of hanging very tough even on his off days. I don’t believe I’ve made a bet against him all season, and I’m not about to start today.
On the flip side, Scott Kazmir’s effectiveness has waned as the innings have piled up. He’s been having some significant strike zone issues lately, and he’s also becoming prone to big innings. Kazmir won’t be facing the most potent offense on the planet today, but if he can’t locate and has free pass problems again, the home team is likely to register some runs.
The big key here beyond the pitchers is the Oakland mindset. This team has simply folded under the pressure of increased expectations and it seems to be getting worse with each passing day. Another blown late lead last night doesn’t bode well for today, especially with the immensely talented Sale working for the hosts.
The betting line is telltale here. There’s no bargain to be had, as the oddsmakers have adjusted smartly for the Oakland decline. But even as home chalk, I look at Sale as the only way I can play today. I’m going White Sox for today’s free selection.
Greg Smith
Houston at BYU
Play: Houston
It's always been tough to get prepared for another game after coming off a huge win or blowout victory. BYU has talent, but trying to get prepared for another game so soon (Thursday) after such a big win over Texas, covering a 18 point spread will not come easy. Houston has 17 returning starters, including their QB. Last year Houston lost in the final minutes to BYU. I look for a focused Houston team ready to get even. I like the underdog getting big points on the road.
MLB Predictions
Cardinals / Reds Under 7
The Reds have been a money machine for me this season, on the UNDER that is. There offense went to the side after Joey Votto went down. While they have been better of late, they are fully capable of laying down. Don't expect them to pile up the Runs against Lance Lynn because he doesn't let it happen. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs since June! Since then all you find is lock down performances. Additionally, he only gave up 3 runs on two occasions since June. Lynn possesses a 2.80 ERA on the year. And while his ERA is 3.25 on the road, his last four starts away from home he gave up just 1, 2, 3, and 1 runs. No reason to believe why he shouldn't give a similar effort in Cincinnati. It is also a safe bet that Johnny Cueto is going to shut the Cardinals' offense down. He hasn't let anyone come into Cincinnati and come out with many runs, as noted in his ERA of 1.94 at home. Cueto also holds a strong 0.87 WHIP and .247 OBP to round out a spectacular 107.2 innings pitched. I expect an early afternoon of great pitching between Lynn and Cueto. Consequently, look to take the UNDER 7 to get your day started off with today.
SPORTS WAGERS
BALTIMORE -2½ over Pittsburgh
There’s an elephant in the room so let’s get that out of the way right off the bat. No question that the tsunami of the Ray Rice situation has been a distraction and that distraction has many people laying off the Ravens. Over here, where the fades are high and the advice is free, we’re not one of them. Adversity reveals character and the Ravens have a great opportunity to show what they’re made of. The scandal is grabbing headline news all over the civilized world and so what we have here is an overreaction to the Ray Rice situation. Baltimore has been prepped to play without Rice for weeks now so the only thing that is new is the reaction upon the video surfacing. We can assure you that Goodell and Harbaugh both knew this was coming (the suspension and public outrage) and we’ve covered that at the end of this analysis. Truth is, the Ravens may have already dealt with this situation prior to last week’s game against Cincinnati. The media blows everything out of proportion and in this case they are blowing the Ravens’ players reaction or impact on them out of proportion.
Lost in all this is the Steelers blowing a 27-3 halftime lead against Cleveland before sneaking out a win with a late field goal. The Steelers were torched on the ground for 183 yards and close to 400 yards of total offense. They also took 11 penalties for 96 yards. The Steelers offense looked sharp in the first half but it was a different story in the second half after adjustments were made. In fact, Pittsburgh was outscored in the second half 24-3. Now on a short week and having to travel, the Steelers take a step up in class.
Baltimore’s loss last week to Cincinnati was not a bad one at all. The Ravens were tough defensively and were mostly dinged by the long touchdown to A.J. Green. In fact, Baltimore had 26 first downs to the Bengals 16, despite Andy Dalton getting time to pass the ball all game. Cincinnati’s offensive line is vastly superior to the Steelers O-line so expect more pressure from the Ravens against Big Ben (Roethislberger was sacked four times last week). The Ravens also fought back from being down 15-0 at the half to taking a lead in the fourth quarter before succumbing to a late Cinci TD. Joe Flacco still went off for 345 yards passing and it should be noted that Flacco has one of the best home winning percentages in history in September. Baltimore had a good game last week against a tough opponent and they figure to be even more focused tonight.The Ravens rarely make franchise missteps when it comes to drafting, re-signing players, letting players leave via free agency and free agent signings. Don’t think for a second that they weren’t prepared for the Ray Rice situation because they were. The Steelers are still one of the most public and overvalued teams in the business. When you combine that with the black could hanging over the Ravens, it provides us with a strong opportunity to cash in against it.
Pass NCAAF
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -1½ +178 over Oakland
Spotting 1½-runs with home teams is always risky but with that risk comes a nice payoff and this one has a very good chance of cashing. The White Sox are coming off six games against perhaps the toughest string of starters that any team has faced in succession this year. In order, the South Side has faced the following starters over their last six: T.J. House (2.61 ERA over his last 5 starts), Cory Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray, Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija. Chicago takes a huge step down in class here against Scott Kazmir. Kazmir could very well be wearing out, as he has now thrown 166 innings this season, his most since 2007. He suffered a complete meltdown in August, where in six starts he went 2-4 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, fully supported by this dismal skill set: 5.09 xERA, 4.8 K’s/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 34% groundball rate. Over his last 24 innings, Kazmir has a BB/K split of 15/18. A trip to US Cellular Field (+38% RHB HR) will present a tough challenge for the struggling lefty, as three of his last six road starts have resulted in disasters.
By contrast, Oakland has faced perhaps the easiest string of starters over their last six games and they are as follows: Brad Oberholtzer, Scott Feldman, Danny Keuchel, Hector Noesi, John Danks and Chris Bassit. The A’s won twice over those six games and now they take a massive step up in class when facing Chris Sale. Sale is the straight goods. He is showing no signs of a pitcher with a lurking elbow injury. Sale has put up the best skills of any starter since the All-Star break. In fact, he has even increased his four-seam fastball velocity by 2.4 mph from the 1H to the 2H, more than any starter in the game. Over his last 33 innings, Sale has struck out 45 batters and posted a skills supported ERA of 1.91. Overall, he has an off the charts BB/K split of 32/183 in 155 innings. There are no signs that he will struggle in his final few starts. It gets better. Oakland is batting .229 over its last 40 games, which is last in the majors. Current A’s have 17 hits against Sale in 94 AB’s (.181) and that’s when they were seeing the ball. Right now the A’s are seeing marbles and Chris Sale figures to make them all look silly up there. The A’s are melting down and Scott Kazmir isn’t far behind.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
BYU / Houston Under 58: Last year 93 points were scored in this game, but I don't see them coming all that close to that this year. BYU is a rushing team and the Houston defense has proven to be solid to start the year. Yes they allowed 27 points to UTSA in the opener, but only allowed 263 yards in that game. Their offense looked good in the game vs FCS foe Grambling State, but vs an FBS defense they put up just 213 yards and will face another tough FBS defense in BYU. So far this year the Cougars have allowed just 306.5 ypg and 8.5 ppg and you know they will be looking for a better defensive showing than last year when they allowed Houston over 500 yards of offense. The Under is 4-0 in BYU's last 4 Thursday night games and 12-4 in their last 16 games in September. Lets Go low on this one.
BEST OF THE REST
Louisiana Tech +4 over NORTH TEXAS: Going to go with the Bulldogs in this one as they look to get revenge for last year's 15 point loss to the Mean Green. North Texas is in rebuilding mode as they have just 9 starters back this year and it really has shown, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where they have averaged just 223.5 ypg. Last week they did beat SMU 43-6, but still it wasn't that impressive as they outgained them by just 79 yards and put up just 353 yards of total offense. SMU turned the ball over 5 times and that's really what aided North Texas in the game. Louisiana Tech ran into a tough Oklahoma defense in their opener, but in game two they took on a much softer defense and they exploded for 48 points and 533 yards in the game. The defense may be about equal in the game, but La Tech has a huge edge on offense and they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a DD ATS win. I look for payback here from the La Tech side.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Boston Red Sox +116
The simulator shows a high probability that Boston will give the Royals a critical loss. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 74-36 mark for 67.3% winners since 1997. Play against all AL teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season. Over the last three seasons, this system has gone a sparkling 23-3 making 21 units/unit wagered. Buchholz is on the hill for the Red Sox and he is an impeccable situation noting a perfect 9-0 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games when facing an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). Further, he is a stellar 10-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). Take Boston.
Ray Monohan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -140
The Pirates have found their stride a we close out the season. It helps that Francisco Liriano has too so you can ignore that terrible 4-10 record. Liriano has given up OER in two of his last three starts and has only one start where he has given up more than 3ER since the end of May. The Phillies are closing out a lost season and just saw SS Jimmy Rollins go down with injury. They are not going to rise up against the Pirates in this one.
Will Rogers
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -121
The Boston Red Sox are coming off four consecutive losses as they travel to Kansas City to open a four game set versus the Royals tonight. The two teams have met in a three game series in Boston earlier this season, a set the Red Sox swept. Tonight's circumstances are a bit different though, since the Royals are looking to hold on to the lead in the AL Central while the Red Sox are already out of contention. I think a motivated home team will take this one down.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to Liam Hendriks (1-1, 4.81 ERA) who'll make his third start for the Royals since coming over from the Blue Jays. He impressed in his home debut versus the Twins on August 27, allowing only one run on four hits over seven innings and will be looking to make Kauffman Stadium his own. The Red Sox will counter with Clay Buchholz (7-8, 5.29 ERA) who'll be aiming for a third consecutive win. The 30 year old right-hander has his worked cut out for him tonight though, as he's struggled under the lights all season long going 4-7 with a 5.56 ERA, and has surrendered four runs on 10 hits over six innings versus the Royals so far this season.
2. Road woes - The Red Sox are 32-39 on the road for the season, and have dropped five of the last six meetings in Kansas City.
3. X-factor - Dustin Pedroia will miss the rest of the season for the Red Sox, due to a surgery on his left wrist.
LT Profits
Nationals vs Mets
Pick: Mets +108
The Washington Nationals need to guard against a letdown vs. the New York Mets after taking two out of three from Atlanta to open an eight-game lead in the NL East. A bigger concern for Washington is that Tanner Roark has looked more hittable his last two starts allowing seven earned runs and 17 hits in 12.1 innings. Roark is 12-10 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but perhaps his professional high log of 179 innings is taking its toll. He is facing a Mets’ lineup suddenly batting .275 and averaging 5.54 runs per nine innings vs. right-handers the last 10 games. Meanwhile the ageless Bartolo Colon is 13-11 with a 3.96 ERA and 134 strikeouts vs. just 23 walks, and he has a 2.57 ERA with 17 strikeouts vs. two walks in three 2014 starts vs. Washington. The Mets are 10-4 in Colons last 14 starts as an underdog.
Dave Essler
Baltimore Ravens -140
I'll go ahead and play the Ravens ML small. I thought about teasing the Steelers, which is probably good, too, but to what? It'd have to be La Tech, and I'm not sure about that. Or something later in the week, and I just don't want to do that. Everyone backing the Steelers because of the Rice thing, but IMO Rice hadn't been all that the last year-plus anyway. The Steelers have two rookies in the defensive front seven (Tuitt and Shazier) and obviously boned a huge lead at home last week. The Ravens probably couldn't have played much worse, but they played what I think is an under rated Bengals team and I'm still pissed I let the noise on that game talk me out of a winner. However, the Ravens now have STEVE Smith to go w/Torrey Smith, so I think they'll be better each week. They've still got Pita as the TE so there's anough threats to keep the Pittsburgh secondary busy. Bernard Pierce is certainly capable, and although Mosely is a rookie, I love the kid and he's from Alabama. Those kids know what the big stage is like already. I simply think the conventional wisdom "fade the Ravens" talk may be premature. Not sure Baltimore is a real contender, but let's not write them off, at home, against a division rival, on a stand-alone game. Because you guys know I don't do a ton of MNF/TNF games, I will bet it smaller, but IMO it's as solid as and 2* play, I just don't feel like laying -140 but don't want to lay points, either. Could well, as most games are, be decided very late. And if it is, I like Justin Tucker better than Shuisam.
Tony Stoffo
Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas
Play: Under 47.5
Strong reverse money action play setting up here between the Bulldogs and Mean Green - as the Public all on the over in this spot with 66% of all bets placed - yet the odds makers have really moved this line the other way lowering this total a full 4 points off the opening number - meaning some groups of sharp money has landed on the under here this evening. So let's follow the money and make our free play for this evening on the under here.