Doug Upstone
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -192
Won with this system here as a premium play yesterday and it surfaces again, so I will hand it out as Free Play today!
The San Francisco Giants continue to enjoy the comforts of home extending their season-high home winning streak to eight games against Arizona Diamondbacks.
Play On NL home favorites in September with a money line of -150 or more like San Francisco, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season. In the past four years, this system is a remarkable 35-4, 89.7 percent.
Dave Price
Pittsburgh Pirates -140
The Pirates have won five of six on the road and five of their last six in Philadelphia. Look for them to keep right on rolling behind Liriano, who is flat out dealing. The southpaw has posted a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts and should be able to silence a team that has never seen him. Burnett has a 4.29 ERA on the season, and the Phillies have dropped eight of his last 10 starts. He has given up four runs or more in seven of his last 10 starts while Liriano has allowed 3 runs or less in 13 of his last 14 starts.
Teddy Covers
Kansas City -121
Even in September, the MLB betting markets continue to overemphasize starting pitching in relation to the overall team. Yes, Clay Buchholz is a better starter than Liam Hendricks, a spot starter for KC who has been with four different organizations in the last year, three of whom gave up on him. But other than that starting pitching edge, Boston has absolutely nothing going for them right now; an easy team to fade in this cheap price range.
The Red Sox have played 14 days in a row without a day off, a tired ballclub right now. A team used to contending for the playoffs in September – last year’s World Series champs – are stuck in last place in the AL East, 20 games under .500. This is not a squad primed for a late season surge!
The Red Sox just got swept at home by the Orioles; now 7-17 in their last 24 games. Veteran leader Dustin Pedroia just got shut down for the season. Mike Napoli, Will Middlebrooks and Brock Holt are all questionable, each dealing with minor ailments. The Red Sox lineup isn’t hitting at all these days, held to a single run or less three times in their last four contests. And their bullpen behind Buchholz certainly isn’t fresh – three of their last four starters have failed to make it out of the fourth inning.
KC’s win over Detroit yesterday put them back in first place in the AL Central; a team oozing with confidence right now. Yesterday’s starter James Shields: “I think every game from here on out is pretty crucial…..we're having fun right now and enjoying the moment." Meanwhile, Hendrix threw seven innings of four hit, one run ball against Minnesota in his lone previous start for KC on this field, primed to enjoy similar success against the hapless Red Sox lineup tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/Baltimore Under 44.5: Game 2 NFL division home faves of less than 6 with an OU line of 45 or less are on a 1-9 UNDER run the last 8 years, plus we note that Pittsburgh is 0-9 to the UNDER in their last 9 game twos, with an average of just 26.2 ppg being scored. Both teams like to play at more of an uptempo pace but I feel the defenses can slow them down here. The Pittsburgh defense struggled in their game vs Cleveland and that can only fuel their fire for a better showing in this one. Joe Flacco threw the ball 62 tines last week, but most were of the short range variety as he averaged just 5.5 ypa in the game and the Ravens were also able to score just 16 points in that loss to the Bengals. I can't see him throwing 62 times in this game, while Pittsburgh should look to run the ball a bit more this week so they can give their defense, that was on the field a ton last week, a rest. With 8 of the last 9 in the series failing to score more than 43 points, I will look for that trend to continue here.
David Banks
Baltimore Ravens -2.5
A nice AFC North rivalry is renewed on NFL Thursday Night Football on CBS as the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0, 0-1 ATS), who almost lost after building a 27-3 halftime lead last week, visit the Baltimore Ravens (0-1, 0-1 ATS) amidst the Ray Rice distractions at 8:25 ET. The Steelers allowed 24 unanswered points to the Cleveland Browns in the second half before a late field goal allowed them to escape with a 30-27 win, blowing the cover as 6-point favorites. The Ravens are looking to avoid an 0-2 start at home after losing here 23-16 to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, the day before the Rice video surfaced that led to Baltimore terminating his contract.
Aside from the fact that these teams always play close games, with nine of the last 11 meetings being decided by three points or less and one of the other two meetings decided by seven points, the underdog Steelers should also have an edge here in the focus department. In fact, some may argue that Pittsburgh has been thinking about this game since halftime on Sunday, as this contest comes just four days later and the Steelers seemingly had an insurmountable lead on a Cleveland team that had produced a total of two first downs during a dominant Steelers' first-half performance on both sides of the ball. And you can bet that the lack of focus in the second half of that game got the attention of fiery head coach Mike Tomlin, so look for a much longer attention span from start to finish this time around. Ben Roethlisberger was great vs. what is supposed to be a good Browns' defense led by shutdown cornerback Joe Haden, as he threw for 365 yards while completing 23-of-34 passes including a beautiful touchdown pass to Antonio Brown. He figures to have success again here with Baltimore starting safety Lardarius Webb bothered by a bad back and his fellow safeties Chykie Brown and Darian Stewart each getting burned by Andy Dalton on Sunday. That could set things up for Le'Veon Bell to have another nice rushing game after running for 109 yards on 21 carries vs. Cleveland.
Meanwhile, it would seem virtually impossible for the Ravens to be fully focused on playing football here, especially with the timing of the whole Rice fiasco coming on this short week. And based on their Week 1 performance, they have a lot to work on. The offensive line that was so terrible last year showed some nice promise by performing better during the preseason, but now you know why it was preseason because the same problems from 2013 resurfaced on opening week once the real games started. Joe Flacco was under constant pressure and the run blocking was terrible. Just about the only offensive highlight was running back Justin Forsett overcoming that shoddy blocking to rush for 70 yards on 11 carries, and that may have just landed him the starting job this week in place of Bernard Pierce, who rushed for only 14 yards on six carries before losing a fumble in the first quarter, never to be seen for the rest of the game.
As you might expect, the underdogs are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Also, the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Baltimore and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings overall. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
Bob Balfe
Kansas City Royals -125
Clay Buchholz has leveled off after starting awful and is pitching well over the last few weeks, but Hendriks is a hidden gem at home with a great WHIP and a 3-0 mark at home. This Red Sox team in the past could use offense to win games which is just not the case this year. Take Kansas City.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Kansas City Royals over the Boston Red Sox in American League action tonight, as the A.L. Central division leaders will take advantage of the once again struggling defending World Series champions.
I'm not going to bother listing Clay Buchholz and Liam Hendricks here, as it's irrelevant to me with as bad as the Red Sox have been playing of late. It just keeps getting worse every time the champs take the field.
Their postseason hopes have seemingly faded away, as they're 23.5 games back of A.L. East leading Baltimore, while they're 17 games out of the wild-card race.
It's been awhile since the Sox unloaded a slew of players to playoff contender prior to the trading deadline. Now, Dustin Pedroia's season has come to an end, as it's been announced he'll have season-ending surgery on his left hand.
Meanwhile, the Royals come in after a 3-0 win over A.L. Central division rival Detroit, after losing the first two games of the series to drop into a virtual tie for first in the division. Kansas City is one game ahead of the Tigers at this point, and needs to keep its winning going.
While Boston has also lost five of six as the installed dog and four of five after a loss, Kansas City is in on win streaks of 7-1 when hosting losing teams, 13-4 when laying chalk at home and 10-3 in series lid-lifters.
Lay the home chalk here.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the BYU Cougars over Houston in what I expect to be a Thursday night college football blowout.
The Cougars haven't had a problem scoring points through two games this year and I don't see it being a problem tonight against a Houston team that can't stop anyone. And if BYU continues to score 40 or more points in a game, their chances of winning greatly improve. The Cougars are 37-2 under coach Mendenhall when scoring 40 or more points in a game.
Houston's goal coming into tonight will be to keep BYU's defense off balance because they know they aren't going to be able to stop them. The plan? Use different formations and different personnel in the backfield. I doubt it works, but it's a good plan, in theory.
BYU QB Taysom Hill has accounted for 685 yards, 5 rushing TDs and three passing scores in two games and won the FBS Independent Offensive Player of the Week award the last two weeks.
I just don't see how Houston can keep this game close tonight unless BYU turns the ball over a bunch.
I like BYU 45-21 in a win and point spread cover tonight. Take BYU as your free play of the day.
2♦ BYU
Jeff Benton
Think the Over is worth a look in Charm City this Thursday night, as Pittsburgh's defense did allow the Browns to go crazy in Sunday's second half en-route to a 30-27 last second Steelers win.
That total playing Over put the Steelers on a 5-1 Over run dating back to last year's regular season, and they have played some higher-scoring games with the Ravens in Baltimore in recent years with 4 of the past 5 played at M&T Bank Stadium having landed Over the total.
Baltimore did hold Under last week in their loss to Cincinnati, but they had been Over in 4 of their final 5 to close last year's regular campaign. I would think that with another home division loss staring them in the face, the Ravens would need to treat this one as if it were the Super Bowl, and get out of the gate lickity-split!
5 of the last 7 series meetings between these rivals have gone Over, and I think this one does too.
3♦ PITTSBURGH-BALTIMORE OVER
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals, and I don't want you worrying about listing pitchers in this game.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Mets - .Don't look now, but the surging Mets are on the fringe of the National League playoff race. Yes - the Mets. They're just 5.5 games back in the wild-card race, and come into this one having won four straight.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Nationals - There is nothing really wrong with Washington, it's just going to run into a buzzsaw against a team that is playing red hot right now, and with plenty of motivation to get into th postseason.
In conclusion, why NEW YORK is my SMART PLAY in this game - New York has too much to play for right now, and I like its chances to make it five straight and nine of 12. I won't bother listing either pitcher: Tanner Roark or Bartolo Colon, but I will say that this is at our advantage, with the veteran Colon toeing the slab for New York. The right-hander is 11-6 with a 3.25 ERA since May 17.
2♦ N.Y. METS
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Thursday is the Under in the Rays-Yankees contest.
Last night we saw a very rare Yankees eruption for 8 runs, but tonight they face a pitcher that has shut them down in convincing fashion pretty much every time he has faced them.
The Rays go with Alex Cobb who is 5-0 in his last 6 starts against the Yankees, and owns a 1.24 ERA in those 6 starts, His most recent meeting with New York comes on August 15th when he fanned 8 in 7-plus shutout innings.
Cobb is on a 4-1 roll his last 9 starts with a 1.18 ERA.
Michael Pineda counters for the Yankees with just 2 runs allowed his last 13 innings pitched, and in his 9 starts this season, he has not allowed more than 2 runs to score.
Have to side with the Under in the Bronx tonight.
4♦ TAMPA BAY-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Non Stop Sports Picks
Ravens -2.5
Make sure you get the 2.5 here as 3 is a key # and dating back to start of 2008 season, 10 of last 12 games between Steelers and Ravens have been decided by 3 points or fewer. That being said, people are going to chalk up the Ray Rice thing and overblow it. Is it a distraction? Yes. But let's look at the facts. Ray Rice is a declining back (or maybe just unmotivated prior to this season) and didn't average enough yards per carry to put him into an "elite status". Pierce is every bit as capable for the most part. And the Ravens DON'T lose at home. Plus, the defense is suspect for the Steelers (I also lean to the over).
Vegas Butcher
Washington Nationals -117
Mets won for the 4th time in a row yesterday and 7th time in the last 8 games. Of course these wins came against MIA, CIN, and COL, as they’ll now step up in class to face the BEST team in the NL. Tanner is a tough matchup for the Wright-less Mets lineup, as he possesses a strong fastball/slider combo, to go with a very good curve and changeup. Mets rank 28th against the FB, 26th against the SL, and 23rd against the CB. As far as Roarke pitching on the road, I really don’t have too many concerns there. I know his road ERA of 3.4 is higher than his 2.5 home mark, but advanced stats tell us that there’s virtually no difference.
Home: 2.7 K/BB; 17% K%; 0.7 HR/9; 3.6/3.9 FIP/xFIP
Away: 4.7 K/BB; 20% K%; 0.8 HR/9; 3.4/3.6 FIP/xFIP
I expect Roarke to be just fine against this 21st ranked Mets lineup. On the other side, we have Colon, who’s been very good this year. In his last 2 starts though, Colon has recorded only 4 K’s through 12.1 innings with 2 HR’s allowed. He had a 5.0 and 5.1 xFIP’s in those starts and that was against mediocre lineups of PHI and CIN. Cincy ranks 20th against the ‘fastball’, while Philly is 29th, and yet Colon struggled against them regardless. This is a pitcher who throws his fastball 83% of the time. Well, Nationals rank 10th on the season against the pitch. Over the last 30-days they’re 2nd in MLB against it. I know Colon dominated the Nats on 08/13, but in that outing neither Span nor Werth were starting. These are two of Washington’s best hitters, and of course both will be available today. Finally I want to point out that Mets will be at a disadvantage in the later innings due to over-worked BP. Their key relievers all pitched in 3 of the last 4 days, while Washington’s 5th ranked bullpen is well rested. Nats are 6-0 @ NYM this season and 21-4 in the last few years playing there, and I really like their chances of a win tonight.
Boston Red Sox +118
Royals are coming off a very tough, playoff-like series @ Detroit, needing to win last night’s game in order to salvage something out of the series. They did and now will face the most disappointing team in all of baseball tonight. Of course the difference here is that there’s a large discrepancy in the two starters. Boston will have Buchholz on the mound, who is my 29th ranked starter in the last 30-days. Buchholz was coming into the 2014 season off a major shoulder surgery, and of course he was a disaster early on in the year. In the first half of the year his FIP was 4.6 and he was allowing 1.4 HR/9. In the 2nd half, his FIP dropped to 3.4 with the HR/9 rate being a superb 0.41. Just in August and September, his FIP is at 2.9 as he’s allowed only 2 HR’s in his last 49.2 innings of work or a 0.36 HR/9 rate. The difference is that he’s finally regained his velocity, something that made him such an effective pitcher last season. Buchholz faced the Royals on 07/18, and though he did give up 10 hits and 4 ER’s in 6.0 innings, we have to be careful here with undervaluing his performance in that one. Majority of the hits were singles as most weren’t even hit very well. Buchholz registered a 2.8 SIERA in that game with a slick 63% GB-rate. A high .417 BABIP led to some of those runs being scored, but overall Buchholz pitched extremely well. I expect a similar strong outing tonight from him. Of course opposite him, is one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. Liam Hendriks has a career 5.9 ERA with a 5.2 FIP. His 4.4 ERA and 4.7 FIP as a starter are better this year but of course the sample-size is fairly low. I’ll grab a better starter in this game as I like Boston to end their 4-game losing streak tonight.
The Duke's Sports
Ravens -2.5
This series has been close with the dog getting the best of it; however, we'll look for the 0-1 Ravens to bounce back. They showed promise last week with flashes of strength in the second half; moreover, it's less likely the Ravens' receivers will drop six balls like they did last week. And RB Justin Forsett established himself as a capable RB after Bernard Pierce struggled. We'll look for QB Flacco, who is 11-1 SU in September to get back in to a groove with more help from Torrey and Steve Smith. The Steelers, on the other hand, didn't look sharp in the second half last week especially defensively. Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS after allowing 350+ yards previously. We'll roll with Baltimore.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (+17.5) over BYU
Houston played BYU toe-to-toe last year at home in a wild 47-46 loss and despite the early-season success of BYU this year, we don't see any reason why they should be laying more than two TDs. BYU is off an impressive rout of Texas last week and has slid into the Top-25 and that makes them a little overvalued here, especially when you consider that Texas was short-handed in that game due to a slew of injuries and suspensions. We'll look for the high-flying Houston offense to score enough points to hang around all night here against a BYU offense that is one-dimensional and leaning too much on QB Taysom Hill. BYU is also prone to letdowns in this situation as they are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games the week after a straight-up win. Take the generous points!