Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 12

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
The Indians look to build on their 7-1 record in Corey Kluber's last 8 starts when the total is set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Cleveland is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130)

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Garcia) 14.454; Miami (Flynn) 13.104
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under

Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 14.272; NY Mets (Harang) 15.125
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 14.190; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.463
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Under

Game 907-908: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.278; Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.343
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Thornburg) 15.672; St. Louis (Kelly) 15.209
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+150); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.694; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.203
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Under

Game 913-914: Oakland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 16.187; Minnesota (Diamond) 14.653
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Under

Game 915-916: LA Angels at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 16.166; Toronto (Happ) 15.061
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.679; Baltimore (Chen) 15.124
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+155); Over

Game 919-920: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 17.240; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 14.679
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.348; White Sox (Danks) 14.800
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Over

WNBA

Minnesota at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games against the Lynx in LA. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2)

Game 651-652: Seattle at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.670; Tulsa 116.237
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 7 1/2; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 5; 146
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-5); Under

Game 653-654: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.404; Los Angeles 118.299
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 159 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Over

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tulane at Louisiana TechFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tulane solidified its position as a true FBS Bottom-Feeder after losing at home, 41-39, to a South Alabama bunch that fell the previous week to Southern Utah. The Wave proved they couldn’t handle last Saturday’s chalk role but they’re back in their preferred dog role today where they’ve gone 6-2 ATS in eight tries under head coach C.J. Johnson. Meanwhile in Ruston, fans who had grown accustomed to seeing Sonny Dykes’ offense march up and down the field (51 PPG last year) don’t know what to make of a revamped attack that’s generated only 41 total points in two contests. Tough to evaluate the Bulldogs’ performances after only a pair of outings under new HC Skip Holtz so we’ll continue looking at his distinct favorite/dog dichotomy established during previous stints at ECU and USF: 19-31 ATS laying points compared to 31-14-1 ATS when taking. Tonight’s tussle also marks the CUSA debut for the Techsters who compiled a 5-1 ATS record in its 6 previous games against the league. With La Tech still relatively defenseless (allowing 452 YPG) and Tulane standing at 4-1-1 ATS in recent road openers, we’ll call for the Greenies to outscrap the Bulldogs in a battle for the all-important ATS bone. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tulane.

DB ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tulane at Louisiana TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
It's Conference USA West action as Tulane(1-1) travels to Louisiana Tech(1-1). Tulane struggled on offense last year only putting up 21.4ppg. They were very excited to land junior-college transfer Nick Montana, you may have heard of his father Joe. Returning 9 offensive starters as well; they have put up 34 and 39 in their first two games. The only problem with scoring 39 was the defense gave up 41 and South Alabama came away with the victory. Now they play their first road game against LA Tech who averaged 51.5ppg last year. Tech's QB and HC moved on; so this Bulldogs team is led by Skip Holtz. Skip had a short stay in South Florida; but was solid at ECU before that and will help guide this young team with only returning 7 starters. We expect some mistakes and big plays on both sides of the ball. Neither team is known for a strong defense, both allowing 38ppg last year. The total is set just over 8 TDs, while we think it will approach 10.

Jordan HaimowitzFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
NY Jets vs. New England PatriotsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New England Patriots -12½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
After the Jets escaped with a miracle victory in week one, they come to New England on Thursday night to play Brady and the Pats in what is a short week. Rex Ryan and crew are ill equip to face New England with their new faces defensively on a short week. The Pats squeaked out a road win in week one against Buffalo. Contrary to what many believe, that's not a negative thing. A road win is just that, a road win. Those are tough to come by in the NFL (unless you're facing Jacksonville). Coach Belichek will have a field day exploiting all the holes in the Jets defense, a week two game just tilts fully towards the favorite here. This game will be over by the fourth quarter, as will the spread.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tulane vs. Louisiana TechFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
A moneyline play on underdog South Alabama over Tulane just fell short of my Saturday college football card last week. Of course, the Jaguars went on to defeat the Green Wave 41-39 at the Superdome.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
That result has only served to create value with Tulane this Thursday night, as the Green Wave travel to Ruston to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I don't think there's any question, Tulane is headed in the right direction as a football program, even if it is likely to take a while to get where it wants to be. For now, the Green Wave have tremendous talent at all three skill positions on offense with QB Nick Montana (yes, son of Joe), RB Orleans Darkwa, and WR Ryan Grant. Tulane also has an athletic, opportunistic defense that did a nice job rebounding after a miserable start against South Alabama last Saturday.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The common line of thinking here is that Tulane is taking a major step up in class after losing to South Alabama. However, the fact is, it isn't really with the Bulldogs in a rebuilding phase under new head coach Skip Holtz.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Louisiana Tech was throttled 40-14 at N.C. State back in Week 1 before bouncing back with a ho-hum 27-14 win over Lamar here in Ruston last Saturday. It's worth noting that the Bulldogs lost their best offensive player, RB Kenneth Dixon, to a knee injury in that contest, and he remains questionable to play on Thursday. Even if he can play, it's unlikely he'll be running at 100%.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Bulldogs had to undergo wholesale changes on both sides of the football after a fantastic 2012 season that saw them rip through virtually every opposing defense they faced. It's a brave new world here in 2013, though, and I'm expecting some more growing pains along the way.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Ruston is still an awfully tough place to play, so I'm not ready to step out with a moneyline play on the Green Wave here - although I did consider it briefly. Look for a 60-minute battle in this Conference USA opener, as the Bulldogs have a tough time pulling away for good.

Jack Jones

Texas Tech +3

The Red Raiders have found their next great quarterback in freshman Baker Mayfield. Under the tutelage of new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who guided Johnny Manziel to a Heisman Trophy last year as the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M, Mayfield has completed 71.1 percent of his passes for 780 yards and seven touchdowns with zero interceptions in his first two games.

With eight returning starters on defense, the Red Raiders figure to be much-improved on that side of the ball this year. They have held their first two opponents to an average of 18.0 points per game, so that certainly appears to be the case. Meanwhile, TCU appears to have taken a big step back defensively this year.

The Horned Frogs have allowed an average of 27.0 points and 393.5 total yards per game through their first two contests. They gave up 37 points to an LSU team that isn’t known for its offense. They also allowed 17 points and 361 total yards to lowly Southeastern Louisiana last week. Now, starting quarterback Casey Pachal has been lost for at least a couple weeks due to a broken forearm, which hampers the offense a bit.

TCU is 1-8 against the spread after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 against the number after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. TCU is 0-5 against the spread in its last six games following a S.U. win. The Red Raiders are 5-0 against the number in their last five September games. Texas Tech is 48-14 at home over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Red Raiders Thursday.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
TCU/ Texas Tech Under 63: I know these teams put up 104 points last year, but that was in triple OT an this year we have a backup QB on one side and a walk-on freshman QB on the other side. Trevone Boykin had a big game last year vs the Red Raiders defense that is very improved this year and should be able to slow this TCU offense down. An Offense that just hasn't looked good as it is. Coming onto the year the TCU defense was expected to be one of the best in the Big 12, but they gave up many big plays and 37 points to LSU in the opener. Still I expect this defense to be very tough this year and they should get back on track in this one vs a Texas Tech offense that has run up some big numbers on some weak competition. This OU line is way too high I feel as this game has a chance to be played in the just the 40's. The Under is 6-1 in TCU's last 7 Thursday night games and I say that trend continues in this one.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
2 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Louisiana Tech/ Tulane Over 57: This LA Tech offense will get better and it should start this week vs a Tulane defense that is bad. The LA Tech defense has proven bad so far and that should continue tonight vs a Tulane offense that can put some points on the board. This should be a fun shootout type of game, with at least 30 points being scored by each team.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Troy +8 Over Arkansas State: The Red Wolves are not the same team that has won BB Sun Belt Titles. They are weaker on both sides of the ball, will Troy has looked good in the early going. The defenses may be about equal, but I give Troy the edge on offense and they should put up enough points to keep this one close.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tulane at Louisiana TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
We do believe Louisiana Tech is the better team in this matchup against Tulane, but this is too many points to lay and we'll grab the line value with the road underdog tonight. Louisiana Tech was crushed 40-14 at NC State in their season opener, and they also didn't look good against FCS foe Lamar last week, winning by only 13 points as a four-touchdown favorite. The Bulldogs are playing like the inexperienced team they are, returning just seven returning starters on both sides of the ball combined, and their passing game has yet to take off with both games seeing them passing for less than 180 yards each time. Tulane returns 16 starters from last year, so they at least have the advantage in experience, and they are good enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game close.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs +158

Chicago has a fine young arm going in lefty Chris Rusin (2.89 ERA), who has a 2.40 ERA his last three starts. He faces a weak Pirates offense that is 24th in baseball in runs scored, 18th in on-base percentage and 19th in slugging. And starter Jeff Locke has cooled off, with a 6.59 ERA his last three starts. He hasn't won a game since July 21. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter and the Pirates are 1-4 in Locke's last 5 starts.

Sean Higgs

New England Patriots -11

Thursday night NFL action has the Jets visiting New England. If last week was any indication, we should expect an exciting football game. Both teams eked out last second wins on the strength of their kickers legs.

Let’s start off by revisiting the last time these two teams met. Thanksgiving night last year with New England pile-driving the Jets into the turf with a 49-19 thumping that is probably best remembered for the ‘Butt Fumble.’ I can barely even type that without laughing! Well, things have changed. The Jets have basically handed over the franchise to rookie QB Geno Smith as it looks like Mark Sanchez will be heading to the IR sometime soon and his career with the Jets most likely over.

We will stay with the Jets for a moment. I have to tell you, I didn’t think they would win last week and if there wasn’t a bone head penalty, they probably wouldn’t have. This team still lacks significant offensive playmakers and the simple truth is that Geno Smith, no matter how decent he looked last week, will suffer some growing pains. The defense looked solid, but again, that was facing Josh Freeman and not Tom Brady.

New England survived blowing a 10pt lead and pulled out a last second victory in Buffalo. But they didn’t need a flag to get the job done, they just relied on their All-Pro QB Tom Brady. Now, I will tell you that I think the Patriots will suffer a ‘down’ year by their standards. That being said, I still think there is value here even with this double digit number.

My Final Thoughts

At first glance, I would be ready to gobble up a double digit division dog in a New York minute. I just can’t on this occasion. I think that Tom Brady, regardless of who he throws to, is head and shoulders above Geno Smith and with him alone, the Patriots offense is probably 10 points better than the Jets. I also can’t go against HC Bill Belichick here. I don’t think New England is going to cough up another 75 yard fumble return for a TD. I also think the defense will also record a sack or two after not getting any last week. They just played a QB in EJ Manual who is similar to Geno Smith, a guy who can use his legs. I feel that back to back weeks vs QBs like this does nothing but the help the defense.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Rays +109

Tampa Bay has lost 2 straight at home. They are 5-1 this season off back to back home losses. They also fit a home dog system that won every time this season and plays on certain home dogs off 2+ run loss, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 2+ runs and scored 5+ runs. Boston cashed big as our Dog of the Month last night. However we will play against them hereto night. Jake Peavy makes the start for Boston. Peavy has a 5.14 road era this season and a 5 era vs Tampa Bay the past few years. Tampa had J. Hellickcson on the mound and they have won 10 of his 13 home starts and he has been good in 2 starts Vs Boston this season. Look for Tampa to salvage the final game of the series tonight.

Nick Parsons

Los Angeles Dodgers -170

For the Dodgers to claim their first division crown in four years, they'll have to win six games.

LA comes into this series having taken two of three from the Diamondbacks, but is coming off a 4-1 loss in last night's finale.

A matchup vs. the Giants is the perfect opportunity for the home side to inch closer to its goal as it's taken five of the last six between the clubs.

Matt Cain (8-9, 4.37 ERA)

Cain came off the DL on Saturday vs. the Diamondbacks and suffered the 2-1 loss, giving up two earned runs off eight hits and four walks over 6 1/3's innings of work.

Zack Greinke (14-3, 2.79 ERA)

Greinke gave up two runs off eight hits and a walk through six innings, striking out nine in a no-decision vs. the Reds on Saturday.

Greinke continues to be the very model of consistency and has not lost since July 25th.

Note that he's been particularly sharp at home, a near-perfect 8-1 with a 2.20 ERA thus far.

The Bottom Line

Greinke is actually 11-1 with a minuscule 2.13 ERA in his last 15 starts, while Cain gave up a miserable eight-runs over just 2 1/3's innings in a 10-2 beatdown loss the last time he faced the Dodgers back on July 5th.

One player you'll want to keep your eyes on is LA's Andre Ethier, who is 29 for 65 (.446) lifetime vs. Cain.

I normally don't recommend playing favorites of this size, but with the superior starter and significant motivational factors working in its favor, all signs do indeed point to a home side victory in this matchup.

Consider second look at the Dodgers tonight.

Justin Bay

Washington Nationals -142

Tanner Roark
- Season vs. NYM: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, .250 OBA
- Away: 1.10 ERA, .189 OBA
- August: 1.19 ERA, .182 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, .200 OBA
- Post All Star: 0.94 ERA, .186 OBA
- Mets hitters vs. Roark in his career: .273 BA

Aaron Harang
- Home: 5.63 ERA, .254 OBA
- August: 9.12 ERA, .311 OBA
- Post All Star: 6.63 ERA, .268 OBA
- Nationals hitters vs. Harang in his career: .273 BA

Roark has been lights out since joining the starting rotation for the Nationals and has had very good numbers against the Mets. Harang is making his first start for the Mets tonight and it will be interesting to see how he starts out. The Nationals are a sneaky team and can put up runs quick so look for Harang to get hit around early.

Bruce Marshall

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Oakland Athletics -1.5

The A's have suddenly opened up some ground in the AL West race, with Texas now a full 3 games behind. And after an offensive explosion of 18 runs and 22 hits on Wednesday, expect the hot A's bats to carry them to a win in the rubber match of this midweek set at Target Field this afternoon. Oakland pitcher A.J. Griffin has enjoyed some fairly strong offense behind him of late, getting 16 runs in winning each of his last three outings while matching a career high with nine strikeouts over six innings Friday in a 7-5 win over Houston. Meanwhile, Twins starter Scott Diamond makes his first start since being recalled from AAA Rochester.