Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Milwaukee vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. LouisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I'l call for the Cardinals to finish off a three-game sweep of the Brewers tonight. They definitely have all the momentum, having won five in a row and they'll have Joe Kelly on the mound. The Brewers have lost 8 of their last 11 games and are showing few signs of life as the season winds down.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Here are my keys to the game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1. Joe Kelly - In what has been a patchwork rotation for much of the season, Kelly has become one of the Cardinals more reliable starters. He is 8-1 in 12 starts with a 1.93 ERA. The team has won each of the last eight times he's taken the mound. He has gone exactly six innings while giving up just one run in each of his last three starts, all of which were critical division wins over either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh. That brings Kelly's team start record to a perfect 7-0 this season vs. the NL Central.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
2. Head to Head - The Cardinals are 12-3 this season vs. the Brewers. They have outscored them 9-3 in the first two games of this series.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3. X-Factor - Kelly has gotten an average of 6.58 runs per start from the offense. The combo of the Cardinals hitting and Kelly's pitching makes them tough to beat.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates -165
The entire Pittsburgh rotation has been solid this year, especially Jeff Locke. In his 27 starts Locke has posted a 3.23 ERA and a 9-5 record. The Cubs have struggled against left-handed starts this season scoring just 3.6 runs per game on a .245 batting average. Against division opponents they have been even worse, scoring 3.2 runs per game on a .219 batting average.
Pittsburgh on the other hand, has performed well against lefties. They average 4.3 runs per game with a .264 batting average. They will face Chicago's Chris Rusin in this game. Rusin has a decent ERA, but he has rarely made it more than five innings on the mound. That leaves the bulk of the load to be carried by a Cubs bullpen that has a 4.11 ERA and has blown 41% of their save opportunities this season.
Bill Biles
New York Jets +13
Look for the Jets to be able to keep the patriots score low, I dont believe they will win the game, but 13 points in a divisional game is to much especially when Brady doesnt have the weapons on offense.
Big Kat SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue JaysSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Los Angeles Angels -115FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Here are a few trends that have us on road team tonight in Toronto:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
Angels are 14-5 in their last 19 overall.
Angels are 4-1 in Richards’ last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Blue Jays are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a home underdog.
Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
Blue Jays are 2-9 in Happs’ last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pair those numbers with the fact that the Angels are 6-1 in the last 7 head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll lay the small price with them on the road to get the win tonight in Toronto.
NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Diego Padres + over Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Roy Halladay has not been much better in his three starts since returning from the DL than he was in his early season struggles. Halladay has just eight strikeouts in 17 innings of work while allowing eight runs and nine walks. His season has continued to get worse, having to miss his last start with illness and he is not worth backing at this price given that he owns a 6.32 ERA at home on the season. Tyson Ross has allowed four or fewer earned runs in each of his nine starts since moving back into the rotation after the All Star break. Ross has six quality starts in that span and he is posting great strikeout numbers while allowing very few home runs. Philadelphia's lineup has very little experience against him and the Padres have been playing well, winning six of seven before losing a close game last night. Philadelphia is batting just .241 in the last 10 games, scoring three or fewer runs in seven of the last 10 games before squeaking out four runs last night in the late innings. While San Diego has not been a strong road team, Halladay has not pitched remotely close to his past glory days despite his name recognition bringing a bump in the price.
Steve Janus
Jets/Patriots Under 43½
I'm not a big fan of the spread in this one. The Jets needed a miracle late to beat a Tampa Bay team that I think isn't as good as people are expecting and the Patriots offense has been completely depleted with injuries at both running back and wide receiver.
You can never feel comfortable betting the UNDER with Tom Brady and the Patriots playing at home, but I feel that's the best option in this one. What got lost in the Patriots win over the Bills in Week 1 is how well the defense played in that game. New England held Buffalo to just 286 yards of total offense. With the Jets starting rooking quarterback Geno Smith, I can't see New York putting up a big number after managing just 18 points vs Tampa Bay.
On the other side of things, New England lost two key players in running back Shane Vereen and wide out Danny Amendola. Vereen had 101 rushing yards and caught 7 passes for 58 yards, while Amendola had 10 receptions for 104 yards. There's just not a lot of options left for Brady, especially with Rob Gronkowski still out and backup tight end Zach Sudfeld doubtful with a hamstring injury. Rex Ryan and the Jets defense played well against an explosive Tampa Bay offense and are more than capable of keeping the Patriots offense in check.
The UNDER falls into a strong system. Any time you have a team that is coming off an upset win as an underdog (Jets) vs a team off a non-cover in a win as a favorite, the UNDER has gone 50-20 (71.4%) when it's listed between 42.5 and 49 points.
Doug Upstone
Tulane vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: Louisiana Tech -7
For Thursday, PLAY ON teams like Louisiana Tech, who won 60% to 80% of their games a year ago, against a team which had a losing record last season (Tulane), in conference games. This college football system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent the past four years and with the spread hovering around seven, the average margin of victory in these matchups is 16.6 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego -102 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies had big motivation on their side when they recently swept the Braves prior to this series but that motivation level is not nearly as high against this “also ran” guest. These two split the first two games of the series with Padres taking the opener 8-2 before losing to Cliff Lee last night, 4-2. Roy Halladay missed his last start due to flu-like symptoms. A shoulder strain nagged him most of last season, resulting in his first sub-200 IP year since '05. That shoulder carried 240 IP per season from 2008 to 2011. Halladay has spent most of this season on the DL. Before going on the disabled list, Halladay's biggest problem was his control and since returning, it has gotten worse. In three starts covering 17 innings, Halladay has walked nine batters while striking out eight. That’s not the only concern. Halladay’s groundball rate is at a career low 34%. His line-drive rate is at a career high of 27%. Age, health and the toll of all those great innings has made Roy Halladay a huge risk and the only thing that has him favored here is his name and pedigree.
It has been nine straight pure quality starts for Tyson Ross since rejoining the rotation on July 23. He takes on a Phillies team who is playing out the season with a somewhat makeshift lineup. Ross is a must play, spotting less than a nickel or even a dime against Halladay and the Phillies. Ross’s skills have outperformed his results more than any starting pitcher in the game. His 3-7 record does not do justice to his 3.36 xERA, (2.79 actual ERA) 54% groundball rate, 8.4 K’s per nine and solid control. Put Tyson Ross on your radar as one of the most undervalued pitchers in the majors. Ross has nasty stuff, he has game and his chances of winning here are far greater than Halliday’s chances.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND -11 over N.Y. Jets
The Jets were at home last week and had it not been for a stupid personal foul penalty on the second last play of the game, New York would be 0-1 after a 17-15 loss to the Buccaneers.The start of the Geno Smith era went pretty well even if it did not have a lot to do with him. Facing one of the worst defenses from last year who were on the road would be a prescription for "as good as it gets" but pretty it was not. Kellen Winslow hung on to make the roster and then led the Jets with seven catches for 79 yards. Facing one of the weakest rush defenses from 2012, Chris Ivory only gained 15 yards on 10 carries. Bilal Powell looked like a powerhouse by comparison when he gained 29 yards on 12 carries. The Jets are getting way too much credit here for one lousy win in a game they deserved to lose. Had this game been scheduled for Week 1, the Patriots would’ve been a 14½-point choice. We now get the benefit of a weaker line because of Week 1 results. Pencil us in for that.
New England’s stock is low after its opening game wasn't nearly as clean and pretty as we have come to expect from the Patriots. Any time that Tom Brady has to run five times to gain a four-yard loss is a game that is not going to plan. Stevan Ridley was benched for fumbling twice and the Pats two best players last week, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen are both out this week. We say big deal. Brady still passed for nearly 300 yards and two TD’s. The Pats defense held E.J. Manuel to 150 passing yards and the Bills have way more weapons than the Jets have. Ridley is a fumble away from being in Bill Belichick’s doghouse and that’s a place he surely doesn’t want to be in. Ridley had nine carries for 46 yards on the 15 plays he was on the field, but fumbled twice. Belichick gave him the “you gone!” and Shane Vereen took over and ran for 101 yards. The only saving grace for Ridley is that Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and will miss a month, which may help him dodge a bullet. But once Uncle Bill gets pissy, it’s hard to get back in his good graces, even for a young buck with Ridley’s talent. With that hanging over his head, Ridley could go off for a huge game here. There’s nothing Belichick enjoys more than beating up on the Jets and Rex Ryan. The Patriots near loss in Buffalo has many scared to lay such a big number but for us, it has the opposite effect. Buffalo is much improved and it’s always a tough place to play in. The Jets are one of the worst teams over the past decade and nothing has changed. Patriots should have little trouble holding Geno Smith, in his first NFL road game, and the New York offense to very little if anything at all. Expect New England to go off for 24 or more and that should be plenty to get this cover.
Survivor Pick - Week 2
Raise your hand if you sweated out last week’s Survivor Pool with New England or Indianapolis and shame on you if you penciled in the Steelers after we warned you to not go near that favorite last week. Once again, we’re going to stick to our philosophy of avoiding the biggest picks of the week and that would be New England, Houston, Green Bay or Philadelphia of which 85%-95% of your pool will be on. Anybody picking one of those first three teams could not be faulted, however, we would be rather cautious about playing the Eagles. That brings us to our choice, the Bears over the Vikings.
The Lions won by 10 points over the Vikings, but left a ton of points on the field by shooting themselves in the foot over and over again in the first half. They could have scored 50 and should have scored 40. Many teams will make adjustments after Week 1 but the Vikes just don’t have the personnel to get much better. This league is becoming more offensive minded every season and Minnesota is one of few teams that aren’t making the adjustment. Christian Ponder is not fit to QB in this league and when you don’t have a quality QB, you have no shot of winning more games than you lose.
The Bears beat a very tough and well-prepared Bengals squad. Unlike the Lions, who defeated the Vikes by 10, Chicago rarely leaves points on the table. The Bears used to be known for their great defense and they are still a top unit. However, this season, the new Trestman offense has been a success in the one game played and it’s only going to get better. Chicago takes a huge step down in class this week, they have a vastly superior QB and offense and they also have the much better defense. Oh, and the Bears are at home.
Our Week 2 Survivor Pick - straight up - is Chicago.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS TECH +136 over Texas Christian
The Horned Frogs come in as the 24th ranked team in the nation and when a ranked team is playing an unranked team, the line is usually inflated and that’s certainly the case here. TCU is not the 24th best team in the country and by the end of September or sooner, they will no longer be ranked. TCU played a decent game against nationally ranked LSU in its opener, eventually losing 37-27 but that is a flattering score to the Tigers. TCU managed just 259 yards of offense, had a lousy 12 first downs the entire game and much of its offense came at garbage time with the Tigers up 30-17 going to the fourth quarter. At home against SE Louisiana last week, the Horned Frogs were a 40-point favorite and didn’t even score 40 points, winning 38-17. Allowing 38 points to a conservative LSU offense and then allowing 17 to an FCS opponent is not exactly a ringing endorsement for the visitor. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs lost its #1 QB last week and will travel on four days rest to play this undervalued and quality opponent.
Texas Tech defeated Stephen F Austin last week 61-13. Yeah, big deal. However, they went into SMU in Week 1 as a four-point favorite and buried the Mustangs, 41-23. After two games, Tech has racked up 102 points and nearly 600 yards of offense per game. It’s no coincidence that TTU’s offense is thriving. Kliff Kingsbury, a former TTU standout QB himself, was brought as the new head coach and he knows a thing or two about offensive efficiency and creativity. Kingsbury served as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at both Houston and Texas A&M the last four years. He has mentored former UH standout Case Keenum and was instrumental in helping A&M's Johnny Manziel win the 2012 Heisman Trophy. Kingsbury is working with freshman QB, Baker Mayfield and the kid has been near flawless, completing over 70% of his passes for 780 yards (third in the FBS), tossing seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Red Raiders defense is not great but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that because they might be better than advertised, they have the offense to compensate and they’re facing a second stringer. TCU has not looked sharp in the early going and as we have seen over and over again, that lack of sharpness has a way of lingering for an entire season when a team gets off to a poor start. We also get the profitable angle of playing the unranked home dog in a nationally televised ESPN game. Keep the points. TTU outright.
Wunderdog
Boston at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Rays have seen their hold on the final wild card slot dwindle to just a single game. Last night it was a grand slam in the 10th inning that led to their demise. Jeremy Hellickson will get the call to try and stop the bleeding, and he looks to be a good choice. Hellickson is off a great start vs. LA in his last outing, allowing no runs in 5.1 innings of work. He has also held this Boston lineup in check in his two starts this season against them, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings, and 2 runs in 6 innings. Hellickson is also 7-1 in his last eight home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays have been struggling, but not at home when facing a right hander where they are 15-5 in their last 20. Go with Tampa Bay.
Jim KrugerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Jets / Patriots Under 44FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I have a recreational wager (10 to 33% of a unit) on the UNDER 44 in the NY Jets-New England game Thursday. Last Sunday, the Jets would have lost outright and not covered the point spread if their linebacker didn’t hustle and somehow catch Buc WR Vincent Jackson from behind on a breakaway pass which should have gone for a TD in the final 90 seconds. Then, an incredibly stupid penalty on the Bucs gave the Jets the opportunity for the winning field goal at the very end of the game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
It’s not going to be Christmas for the Jets against New England, but considering all of the Patriot injuries, 12 points seems generous to give New York. However, historically speaking, home teams favored in Thursday games have covered the point spread 63.6% of the time, 49-28-4.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I stopped releasing NFL Totals plays as I was losing more than I was winning with them. However, considering the Pat’s injuries and the ineptitude of the Jet’s offense, I have placed a recreational wager on the UNDER. Do not bet it any lower than 43 as that is one of the key numbers in NFL Totals.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
History that supports the UNDER: When the home team is favored on Thursday games going back to 1990, the UNDER has happened 63.0% of the time, 50-31. That improves to 73.0%, 27-10, if it is a divisional game such as this Thursday’s. Regardless of divisional game or not, if the home team is favored by eight or more points, that UNDER goes to 18-4.
Ray Monohan
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians
The Indians should be happy to hit the road because they are not playing the Royals anymore. Now they travel to Chicago to play the White Sox who have been out of the race for a while. Lefty John Danks is 4-12 on the season and has an ERA of over 6 over his last three starts so so much for the veteran lefty rounding into shape as the season wore on. Indians righty Corey Kluber has been solid all season long and will get the Indians off to a good start in the series. They need this one to build some momentum before they go back to Kansas City at the beginning of next week.
Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies +100
The Phillies are showing value at even money at home with two-time Cy Young winner Roy Halladay on the hill. Halladay has looked good in 2 home starts since coming off the DL, giving up a total of 3 runs in 12 innings in those. The Phillies are 25-10 in Halladay's last 35 starts versus teams that have a losing record. Also, Halladay's clubs are 25-8 all-time in his home starts when the money line is +100 to -125. The Padres are 1-4 in Tyson Ross' last 5 starts. They have also dropped 44 of their last 63 games versus Philly.
Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Orioles -150
We'll fade the Yankees with Hughes on the mound. The Yanks are 6-13 in his last 19 starts, 5-16 in his last 21 road starts versus winning clubs and 0-6 in his last 6 starts when working on 5 days' rest. NY is also 1-4 in Hughes' last 5 starts versus the Orioles and 2-6 in its last 8 meetings in Baltimore. The Orioles are 7-2 in Chen's last 9 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus winning clubs.