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New England Patriots -11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England has won 40 of the last 43 games when playing as a favorite of ten points or more and they have won 16 of the last 20 home games. New England has won 12 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and they have won 10 of the last 11 games coming off a road win in their last game. NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road. NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England. New York is 0-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday the last two seasons. We are rolling with the Patriots tonight as much as I hate to go against my Jets as we see a blowout coming.
Craig Davis
I never thought I'd say this, but I have no faith in Roy Halladay. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but the Doc is four months removed from surgery on his pitching shoulder and is just now trying to prove that he's recovered and better than before.
Well, it's not that hard to do considering how he started the season. His fastball was in the upper 80s and he just wasn't getting a lot of movement on his pitches.
Halladay was originally scheduled to pitch last night, but was given an extra day of rest to heal up for a bout with the flu he suffered over the weekend.
He's just 3-4 on the season with a 7.19 ERA and that's just not like him. While I do expect him to pitch better, I can't say I'm all that confident in his abilities after that type of surgery.
San Diego's Tyson Ross, on the other hand, has been pitching at a very high level despite not getting a lot of run support.
Ross (3-7, 2.79 ERA) has pitched well enough to be 7-3 instead of 3-7 but he can't seem to muster any offensive support from his teammates... who are giving him less than three runs per start.
He's winless in his last five starts despite shutting those teams down, for the most part.
I don't care who has a better overall record or ERA or name, but I do care who wins this game... and tonight it's going to be San Diego in the "upset".
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie comes in college football.
Take the points with the Green Wave of Tulane as they battle their in-stat neighbor Louisiana Tech from Rustin tonight.
The Bulldogs have been a money-burner for their backers for a while now, as they are out of the gate this season at 0-2 against the spread, and have now dropped 7 in a row ATS since last season .
This is Skip Holtz' first year at the helm for Louisiana Tech, and it should be noted that Holtz is also on a point spread slide, as his South Florida Bulls failed their final 3 and 5 of their last 7 during his final season tenure in Tampa last year.
Tulane did just lose to South Alabma, but their 41-39 setback did feature Joe Montana's son Nick throwing for over 300 yards and 3 scores.
Perhaps the Green Wave have enough offense to stay close tonight in this one?
I am counting on it.
Take Tulane plus the points.
2♦ TULANE
Brett Atkins
My free play tonight is on the Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line, over the San Francisco Giants, as the National League West leaders are rolling once again, and will enjoy rubbing it in against the defending World Series champs this late in the season, especially at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers' magic number is down to six to clinch the West and have a pretty good chance to wrap up the title at the expense of San Fran, their most bitter rival.
The Giants are an abysmal 28-42 on the road, and will have their hands full with L.A. righty Zack Greinke, who is 6-0 over a dominant eight-start stretch in which he has allowed just 10 runs. He has not lost since losing to Cincinnati on July 25, also the last time he surrendered more than two runs.
Plus, Greinke has been astounding at home, posting an 8-1 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 12 starts while limiting hitters to a .210 batting average.
3♦ LOS ANGELES -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line, as they return home after an impressive sweep of the Texas Rangers in Arlington, to host the lowly Chicago Cubs. And trust me, the Bucs are rolling once again, and could very well pull off a four-game sweep of the baby bears.
I think what I've found most impressive about the Pirates is how the recent acquisitions Justin Morneau and Marlon Byrd have responded for the National League contenders. Morneau (.313 in 32 at-bats) and Byrd (.321 in 53 RBIs) have bolstered a lineup that already includes Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez.
Pittsburgh trails first-place St. Louis by just one game in the National League Central, and both are riding the Majors' longest current win streaks. The Cardinals are tied with Washington with a five-game win streak, while the Bucs have won three win a row.
Meanwhile, the Cubs were shutout for the 13th time this season in last night's 6-0 loss to Cincinnati. That can't bode well now that they're in Pittsburgh, and knowing the Pirates just swept a three-game set from the Rangers even with the hot-hitting McCutchen (.469 over his last nine games) resting for the finale.
Pittsburgh is 45-25 at home and opens an 11-game homestand that not only includes the Cubs, but also features four games against the San Diego Padres and three games against the Milwaukee Brewers. Dare I say the Pirates could go 11-0?
Oh well, the winning begins tonight.
4♦ PITTSBURGH -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Boston Red Sox to get it done in Tampa Bay in a crucial American League East showdown. You'd think the Rays would be playing better, given how close they've gotten in the division, and the heat they're feeling in the wild-card race. But such is not the case, as they look like a team trying not to get to the postseason.
Tampa Bay is trying to avoid a three-game sweep and maintain its one-game lead for the second American League wild card. The Red Sox have looked solid in extending their lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East to 9-1/2 games last night, when pinch hitter Mike Carp stroked a grand slam in the 10th inning of a 7-3 win.
That might have been a severe dagger to the Rays, who are a major league-worst 4-13 since they were tied for the division lead on Aug. 24. That's just 19 days ago - less than three weeks. And while the Rays have seemingly disappeared, the Crimson Hose have surged again, winning 14 of their last 17 while dropping their magic number to clinch a playoff spot to six.
Look for the Sox to win this one, and don't bother listing pitchers, it won't matter.
3♦ BOSTON
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ARKANSAS STATE (-7) 36 Troy 29SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Troy’s offense has been incredibly efficient with veteran quarterback Corey Robinson completing an amazing 47 of 51 passes and the rushing attack churning out 225 yards a game at 6.0 yards per rushing play. Those numbers were accumulated against two very, very bad defensive teams in UAB and Savannah State, but Troy certainly has a pretty good attack. Arkansas State’s defense under first year coach Bryan Harsin was good in week 1, allowing 173 yards at 3.0 yards per play to an Arkansas Pine Bluff attack that would average about 3.8 yppl against an average FBS defense but the Red Wolves couldn’t stop Auburn’s spread attack last week (468 yards at 6.9 yppl) and they’ll face a similar style of offense today (although not as good as Auburn’s offense).
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Arkansas State’s offense was better last week than the 9 points they scored against Auburn would indicate (they gained 422 yards at a decent 5.3 yppl) and new quarterback Adam Kennedy put up good numbers in 5 starts a couple of years ago at Utah State before transferring. Kennedy completed 69% of his passes at Utah State with 11 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions and he’s completed 72% of his passes with no picks in two games this season. Kennedy should have a huge game against a horrible Troy pass defense that was 1.6 yards per pass play worse than average in each of the last two seasons and gave up 9.0 yppp to UAB in week 1. My ratings favor Arkansas State by 8 ½ points but there are a couple of minor situations that favor Troy so I’ll pass on this game.
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LOUISIANA TECH (-7) 33 Tulane 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wow! These two teams have been horrible. Tulane has been outgained 343 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 420 yards at 5.6 yppl by two horrible teams, Jacksonville State and South Alabama. Louisiana Tech’s new coaching staff has been a bit better but the Bulldogs are no longer an offensive juggernaut. LA Tech moved the ball at a decent rate against NC State (5.4 yppl) in week 1 but their defense was horrible (6.3 yppl) and a -4 in fumble margin led to a 14-40 loss. Last week’s 27-14 home win over Lamar wasn’t impressive either given that the Bulldogs were favored by 28 ½ points and only outgained Lamar by 78 yards. My preseason ratings would favor Louisiana Tech by 10 points and I get 13 ½ points using this year’s games only. Tulane does apply to a 92-41-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation but the Green Wave look like the worst of two bad teams.