Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 1,2011

James Patrick Sports

UNLV vs. Wisconsin
Play: Over

The Wisconsin Badgers expect to start the season with a big win when they host UNLV on Thursday night. Wisconsin is coming off an (11-2) season, while the Rebels finished (2-11) last year. These two clubs also matched up in last year’s opener at UNLV, where the Rebels only trailed by three points at halftime before the Badgers pulled away in the third quarter and won (41-21). This year’s Wisconsin offense could be even better than the 2010 version, which posted three (70) point games and finished fifth in the nation in scoring at (41.5) PPG. The new QB is NC State transfer Russell Wilson, who has averaged (267) total yards per game in his career. But the focal point of the offense is the RB duo of James White and Montee Ball who combined for (32) rushing TD in 2010. UNLV had the fifth-worst rushing defense among FBS teams last year (223 rush YPG), including (278) to Wisconsin. The Rebels offense was even worse, ranking third-to-last in the nation in yards with (274) YPG. Considering UNLV is (0-10) ATS as a road underdog in the past three seasons, expect Wisconsin to again post some impressive offensive numbers. Our Thursday complimentary selection is UNLV - Wisconsin Over the Total.

Tony Stoffo

Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky +19.5

Free Play for Thursday September 1st Taking the points with the Hilltoppers here as I can see Western Kentucky keeping this game close right down to the end. First off the Wildcats have been decimated in the skill category with Hartline, Cobb, Matthews, and Locke all gone due to graduation. And I can see them having some difficulties offensively on the road here in their first game. While Western Kentucky returns 17 starters which 10 are on offense. Leading the way will be Booby Rainey who was the Sunbelt Player of the year, and ranked 3rd in the nation with average yards per game. With Rainey attacking a smallish Kentucky front I definitely can see the clock running shortening the game making the 20+ plus the way to go here.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Wake Forest/ Syracuse Under 49.5: Defense... Defense!!! That is what Doug Marrone has brought to this Syracuse team in his short tenure so far. 3 Years ago this team allowed 33 ppg and 414 ypg, but last year those numbers dropped to 19 ppg and 300 ypg. Big improvement there. This year they may take a step back after losing 6 starters, but they are not taking on a strong Wake offense tonight. Despite returning 7 starters from a unit that put up 23 ppg last year this offense is not good and rates as one of the worst in the ACC. I rate their RB's and WR's as the worst in the league, while their OL is in the bottom 3rd as well. I just don't them grabbing a bunch of points vs this defense. The Defense for the Deacons took a big step back last year after allowing 36 ppg and 431 ypg, but Jim Grobe has 9 starters back and should have this defense playing a a higher level this year. The Syracuse offense isn't a run up an down the field kind of offense and last year put up just 22 ppg and while improved this year with 7 starters back they are still not an explosive group. The defense's are usually ahead of the offenses early in the year and I see both defenses holding down a couple of lethargic offenses here. We also note that the Under is 34-12 in Syracuse's last 46 games with the total at 49.5 to 56. Go Low!!!

2 UNIT PLAY

Wisconsin/ UNLV Over 56: Last year Wisconsin scored an average of 59 ppg in their last 5 home games and 4 of those games were vs big defenses. Now the will be taking on one of the worst defenses in the Nation. The Wisconsin running game is one of the best in the nation and they churned out 246 ypg last year and without Tolzien this year I look for them to just continue to run down their opponents throats. That good news in this one as they will be facing one of the worst run defenses in the Nation as last year the rebels allowed 233 ypg on the ground and with 4 starters back on that side of the ball, I don't see much improvement. The Rebels put up 18 ppg last year and should be improved with 7 starters back and they will be taking on a Wisconsin defense that did allow 21 ppg and this year brings back just 5 starters from that unit. Last year these teams put up 62 points and I can see more of the same in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Kentucky -19.5 over Western Kentucky: The Cats won 63-28 last year and this year they have 16 starters and 53 of 73 lettermen back. They may not win by 35 points this year, but they should be able to win by at least 3 TD's.

Carlo Campanella

Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky +19½

These interstate rivals met the second week of last year with Kentucky winning at home by 35 points, 63-28. It was the most points allowed by Western Kentucky the entire season, behind Head Coach Willie Taggart, who was in his first season and coaching only his second game with the Hilltoppers. As the season progressed, Western Kentucky played solid football in their last 4 games, beating Arkansas State and only losing by 1 point to both Middle Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic. When the season was over, Taggart's defense held his opponents to 100 less yards and 7 points per game then the year before and expecting more improvement as Western Kentucky returns 10 of their 11 defensive starters. Must take take the points with this improving defense against a Kentucky squad that struggled to a 1-5 SU & ATS road record last year and now breaks in Morgan Newton in the QB position.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is not out of this pennant race and playing hard for Joe Maddon. The Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter and 14-4 in Jeff Niemann's last 18 starts with 4 days of rest. Niemann has had a great second half, and in his last three starts has a 3.57 ERA fanning 21 and 6 walks in 22+ innings. The Rays are 25-10 in their last 35 during game 3 of a series, making this a great spot for the hungry visitors. Play the Rays.

David Chan

Rays @ Rangers
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and believe this contest sets up perfectly as a classic "pitchers duel".

Jeff Niemann (9-5, 3.46 ERA) gets the start for the Rays.

Niemann gave up three runs on five hits over 6 1/3 frames of work vs. the Blue Jays on Saturday, and his team held on for the 6-5 victory.

The big right-hander is an awesome 6-1 on the road this year with a powerful 2.83 ERA.

Niemann will be opposed by CJ Wilson (13-6, 3.29 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up a season-worst six runs and a career-high four dingers in his team's 8-4 setback vs. the Angels last Saturday.

Note though that Wilson had gone 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA over his previous four starts (and note that he's 6-2 in front of the home town crowd this year).

A couple of quality starters going head to head on Thursday night; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!

Nick Parsons

Athletics @ Indians
PICK: Over

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

Coming into Wednesday the A's are 60-75; 35-30 at home and 25-45 on the road.

Oakland has seen the total go "over" the number in 67 of 123 (with 12 "pushes").

Gio Gonzalez (11-11, 3.35 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Gonzalez gave up four runs and seven hits, striking out five and walking three in just 5 2/3's innings of work in his team's 15-5 destruction of the Red Sox on Friday.

Despite the poor effort, Gonzalez picked up his second straight victory after losing five in a row; also note that it was just his third road victory in 10 decisions (he's a very unremarkable 3-7 with a 4.65 ERA in 12-starts away from friendly confines this year).

In the other dugout: Coming into Wednesday the Indians are 67-65; 38-29 at home and 29-36 on the road.

Cleveland has seen the total go "over" the number in 62 of 126 (with six "pushes").

Fausto Carmona (6-12, 4.85 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Carmona gave up six runs on eight hits over 6 1/3's innings of work on Saturday vs. Kansas City.

Carmona is just 2-2 with a 3.04 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star Break.

Bottom line: I always look at "recent performance", and in this case, neither of these starters has been "sharp" of late; why not place a wager on the "over" in this contest?

John Ryan

Kentucky at Western Kentucky
Prediction: Western Kentucky

5* graded play on Western Kentucky as they take on Kentucky set to start at 9:15 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Western Kentucky will lose this game by fewer than 19 points. There are various outcomes that show this could be a very close game. If you see your way to a money line play take advantage of that opportunity, but do not exceed a 1.5* amount. Over the 18 years I have been handicapping sports there have always been a few 20+ point dogs, who end up winning straight up. I think my personal favorite was when Mississippi went into the Swamp and defeated Tim Tebow and the Gators as 24 points dogs. That loss was followed by Tebow's incredibly emotional and inspiring press conference and the gators never lost again that season. Kentucky has made five straight bowl appearances, the first four under head coach Joker Phillips predecessor, Rich Brooks. Last season Kentucky ranked 23rd nationally gaining 269.3 passing yards per game, 53rd gaining 158.5 rushing yards per game, 34th scoring 31.2 points per game, and 72nd allowing 28.4 points per game. Kentucky lost significant production on offense with the loss of quarterback Mike Hardine, tailback Derrick Locke, and wide receiver Randall Cobb, who was the 'go-to' player in the offense for the last three seasons. With a new offense and a decimated receiver corp coach Phillips will have his toughest task yet in rebuilding a team that qualifies for another bowl trip. They must win all of their non-conference games and then find a way to win two SEC games. They also must face a far better Louisville team in Week 3 and a loss there could almost eliminate any hope of another bowl trip. On defense, Kentucky has brought in Rick Minter, who will join Steve Brown as co-defensive coordinators. Kentucky returns 11 starters on defense, but they are learning a whole new scheme under Minter. They will use hybrid sets with 3-4, 4-3, and 4-2-5 alignments. This new scheme is designed for the SEC opponents, who generally spread the field and look to exploit holes in a defense. By playing these schemes with different looks will make it more difficult for an opposing quarterback to make reads, but it is a very difficult defensive scheme to execute consistently. The Hilltoppers return nine starters on both offense and defense and will be a far more consistent team than last last year's edition. They ranked 115th gaining 143.5 passing yards per game, 33rd gaining 175.5 rushing yards per game, 90th scoring 22.8 points per game, and 99th allowing 33.2 points per game. The running game will be even better with returning running back Bobby Rainey, who ranked third nationally in rushing yards, led the Sun belt Conference in rushing yards, and set a school record with 340 rushing attempts. I strongly believe that Rainey will have a huge night and will be a dominating force in a closely contested game. Tracking consensus figures at the various casinos that I monitor clearly shows that the public is betting Kentucky in this game. In some books the public is betting Kentucky more than 80% of the time. When extreme levels of betting reaches above 80% it reinforces the play on the opponent. Combined with my simulator grading of a 5* opportunity makes me confident I am on the right side of this play.

Sam Martin

Mississippi St at Memphis
Play: Memphis

Despite Memphis being a bad team, this is too many points for a disinterested Mississippi State team to be laying and we'll grab the points and hold on with the Tigers. Mississippi State has no interest in this contest with a road date at Auburn coming up next followed by LSU coming into town. And with those big games coming up the Bulldogs surely won't tip their hand with any complicated formations against a Memphis team they can beat with pure talent alone. That means Memphis should be able to stay within three touchdowns, especially here on their home field and by playing against backups in the second half. This one won't be close, but the Bulldogs don't win by four touchdowns either.

Vegas Experts

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Play: Houston Texans

The Texans look to complete the first perfect preseason in franchise history tonight in Minnesota. They are 3-0 ATS thus far and it's been three very strong showings with the defense starting to come into its own under new coordinator Wade Phillips. Houston leads all teams in total defense right now, allowing just 276 yds per game. The offense hasn't been too shabby either, putting up 436 and 417 yds the last two weeks. With the exception of Donovan McNabb (who isn't expected to play here), the Vikings QB's have looked lost this preseason. Take the points.

Charlie Scott

UNLV vs. Wisconsin
Play: Under 56.5

This Plays is for Opinion only ! I knew with NCAAF kicking off Tonight, there would be some guys with some great desire for a little action Tonight. So Here Goes my Mad Dog Russo Gun to Your Head Who You Playing. My feeling is that although UNLV defense is no match for Wisconsin, with Wisconsin breaking in new QB Russell Wilson from NCst. Wisconsin will use this game like a NFL exhibition gm and try to get QB Wilson use to the Wisconsin scheme. Keep in mind Wisconsin has a game with Oregon st next week and won’t divulge too much of the playbook and might look to rest their starters in a blowout. I predict UNLV will score somewhere between 13-17, add 30 (where line started) and we get a gm total of 47.

Rob Vinciletti

St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are in a rare spot here. For just the second time all season they have lost 2 straight at home. They have not lost 3 straight here and today they qualify in a homer off a blowout loss system that pertains to teams that were a favorite of -140 or higher and lost by 5 or more runs. The Brewers are 19-3 as a home favorite in this range, while the Cardinals are 1-7 as a road dog in this range. Milwaukee is also 29-7 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 and have still won 5 of here this year vs the Cardinals. Today face B. Dickson making his first start of the season in a tough venue. He opposes Brewers ace Y. Gallardo who has allowed just 6 earned runs in 20 innings vs St. Louis in his last 3 starts against them. Look for the Brewers to bounce back and win this one.

BIG AL

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves

As we enter the final month of the season, the Braves are trying to hang with the mighty Phillies in the N.L. East, and they start the stretch run about seven games behind their division rivals. Even if they can't catch Phily, Atlanta has a pretty strong hold on the Wild Card spot as they are several games up on both the Diamondbacks and Giants. Braves ace Tim Hudson gave up more than three earned runs for the first time since the beginning of June - a string of 14 starts - in his last outing in New York against the Mets, and if Hudson is looking for a situation in which to bounce back from that, he may have found it with a start at home against the Nationals. Hudson is an amazing 12-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 21 starts vs. Washington and his last start against them was at home on July 15 and resulted in an 11-1 demolition. No matter what else Nats righthander Chien-Ming Wang does this season, 2011 will almost certainly go down as a success for the 31-year-old righthander from Taiwan who had not appeared in a Major League game in over a year heading into this season. Wang's only start against the Braves didn't go too well as he lost a 6-4 decision early in August. Take the Braves.

Ben Burns

Athletics @ Indians
PICK: Under 8.5

Yesterday's game finished below the number, as the Indians and A's needed 16 innings just to score seven runs. In fact, each of these teams had also seen their previous three games stay below the total. I expect this afternoon's finale to also be relatively low-scoring.

Note that both Gio Gonzalez and Fausto Carmona each have significantly better career stats when pitching during the day, than they do during the evening.

A sub-par outing in his last start notwithstanding, Carmona's been pitching very well of late. In eight starts since the All-Star break, he's 2-2 with a stingy 3.04 ERA. For the season, eight of his 13 home starts have fallen below the total.

Carmona's lone 2011 start vs. Oakland saw him allow only one run and just five hits, through eight innings. That game (5-1 Cleveland victory) stayed below the total, bringing the UNDER to 3-0 his last three starts in the series.

Gonzalez gave up four runs at Fenway last time out. However, he limited the Jays to one run and just four hits, through eight innings, in his previous start. For the season, he's got a very solid 3.35 ERA.

Gonzalez should be thrilled to see Cleveland. In five starts vs. the Indians, he's gone 4-0 with an outstanding 0.89 ERA. He didn't allow a single run in any of his last three starts in the series, including 5-0 and 3-0 victories in his last two starts here at Cleveland.

Excluding a couple of 'pushes,' the Indians have seen the UNDER go a profitable 34-16 the last 50 times that they played at home with a line ranging from +100 to -125. Consider the Under