EZWINNERS
Mississippi St. Bulldogs -29.5
The Memphis Tigers were one of the very bad teams in college football last season and things might be even worse this year. The Tigers lost nine straight games to end the season last year on their way to a 1-11 record. The Memphis defense was horrible and this season they must also replace their quarterback and a majority of the line on the offensive side of the ball. Mississippi State was an improved team last season and everyone expects much bigger things from them this year. Senior quarterback Chris Relf will be allowed to open up the passing game more this season to go along with the punishing ground attack that the Bulldogs feature. Last season Mississippi State knocked off the Tigers 49-7 as they piled up 569 yards of offense and I look for another similar beat down in this game. This year they are in Memphis, but the Tigers don't have much of a home field advantage and its not a very long trip from Starkville to Memphis for the Bulldog faithful to travel to support MSU. Memphis is 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against SEC opponents and opening game road favorites of 14 or more points who won at least seven games in the previous season are 25-9 (74%) against the spread since 1997. Lay the points.
Mike Davis
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -7½
The Giants (1-2) head into Foxborough to face the Patriots (2-1) in the final preseason game for both teams.
New England was very flat last week as Detroit attacked them early and often. Brady and his offensive bunch had a tough time getting going and the defense was just as putrid. This didn't look like the Patriots team that had annihilated it's first two preseason opponents. Although Belichick hasn't said how much (or if) Tom Brady and the other starters will play, it wouldn't shock me to see them out there for at least a quarter. Last year in the preseason finale, Brady played the entire first quarter.
However, my selection is not predicated on how long (or if) the Patriots' starters are going to play (if they do, it certainly favors the Pats). My play is more about how much better the Patriots' back-ups are than the Giants, the fact that the G-Men have had only 2 days rest, and I like the Patriots scheme and back-up quarterbacks better. Also, the Patriots are very deep at running back and you could see 2nd round draft pick Shane Vereen make his pro debut this week.
Add to it the fact that Belichick wasn't happy at all with last week's effort and you have a combination that I can't pass up.
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have dropped two of the first three games of this series and this is a game they need to win to maintain their pace in the American League West. This is the final game before a nine-game homestand so going into that with momentum will be huge. Ervin Santana has a spectacular run going before his last two starts which have been pretty average but he should bounce back here. He has tossed seven straight quality starts against the Mariners including three straight at Safeco Field. The Angels are 8-0 in Santana's last eight starts as a favorite. The Mariners counter with Charles Furbush who is making his eighth start of the season and his sixth start since coming over to Seattle from Detroit. He has just one quality start in all of those outings and while it came at home against the potent Red Sox, that does not give us enough confidence to think he will do it again. He has made it past five innings only once in those eight starts and to make matters worse, the Mariners have averaged only 2.25 rpg over his last four starts. 3* Los Angeles Angels
David Banks
Rays / Rangers Over
The Tampa Bay Rays will look to improve upon their ever so slight playoff chances when they battle Texas at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Thursday night’s finale of the three-game set; first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 ET.
The Rays looked as if they had one completely insane run still left in them when they took the first of three with the Blue Jays in Toronto, but after last night’s disappointing 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Rangers in the series opener, it looks as if it’s not gonna happen. As it is, Tampa Bay has an enormous uphill climb to contend with if indeed it plans on qualifying for the second season. They currently sit nine and 8.5-games out respectively in the AL East and AL wild Card race.
The Rangers recently snagged some breathing room for themselves atop the AL West standings by taking two of three from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim before shutting the Rays out on Tuesday night in this series’ opener. That said, they’re line-up took a major hit when Nelson Cruz once again landed himself on the DL after straining his hamstring. That’s terrible news for a team that’s scored two runs or less in five of its L/10 games. Of the teams nine series left in the regular season, five are against +.500 opponents with only one of the match-ups coming at home.
Texas holds a slim 3-1 advantage in its 2011 season series with the Rays; the ‘total’ has split (2-2 O/U) in each game. Jeff Niemann enters his 19th start of the season 9-5 with a 3.46 ERA & .240 BAA. He’s been nothing short of money away from the Trop to date posting a 6-1 record with a 2.83 ERA & .207 BAA; this will be his first career start against the Rangers. Texas has won 16 of C.J. Wilson’s 28 starts on the year; he’s 6-2 with a 4.08 ERA & .259 BAA at home. He’s allowed three or less ERs in all three of his career starts against the Rays, and the Rangers are 12-3 his L/15 trips to the bump against +.500 opponents.
Gridiron Gold
WAKE FOREST at SYRACUSE
Can't see much scoring here with a pair of run-oriented teams. Wake Forest (3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS) had a tough year on offense while working in junior QB Ted Stachitas, sophomore QB Tanner Price and senior QB Skylar Jones, all who return. The ground attack was very good, averaging 146 yards rushing and 22 points per game. QB Tanner Price (1,349 yards, 7 TDs, 8 INTs) was up and down as a freshman, but has his top targets back in junior WR Chris Givens (514 yards) and senior WR Devon Brown (302) On offense, they prefer to be a ground-oriented attack. Wake is on a 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS run into the new season. Note that Wake is 13-10 over the total their last 23 road games. Syracuse impressed under Doug Marrone, going making a bowl during an 8-5 SU/5-5 ATS campaign in 2010. The defense was No. 17 in the nation allowing 19.3 ppg, an attacking, blitzing unit and they come off a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Kansas State, 36-34. Junior QB Ryan Nassib (19 TDs, 8 INTs) leads this ball control offense (22.2 ppg), returning senior RB Antwon Bailey (554 yards), who averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Syracuse made its quantum leap on the strength of a blitzing defense that creates havoc for quarterbacks and ranks 16th nationally in yards allowed, an attacking 4-3 scheme employed by defensive coordinator Scott Shafer. They are on a 6-3 run under the total, a trend that should continue with this run-first offense. Syracuse is 9-18 SU/8-16 ATS at home the last four seasons (2-4 SU, 0-4 ATS last fall). Projected Score: Syracuse 24, Wake Forest 16
BOWLING GREEN at IDAHO
A long road trip for Bowling Green to open the season, off a poor 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS campaign. Coach Dave Clawson loves to throw the football, averaging 21 points and 231.6 yards passing last season, and returns sophomore QB Matt Schilz (8 TDs, 14 INTs). This California-kid through for over 2,200 yards as a freshman. Four starters return along the line, so there should be better balance. Most of the secondary returns this fall with Keith Morgan, Cameron Truss and Jovan Leacock leading the way, but this defense allowed 33.6 ppg. Idaho also loves to throw the football under head coach Robb Akey, though they lost quarterback Nathan Enderle. This offense was 10th in the nation in passing with 298 yards and 26.6 ppg, but senior QB Brian Reader and sophomore Taylor Davis are stepping in. The new QBs have unproven commodities at the rest of the skill positions, too. This Idaho defense is small and allowed 28.3 ppg. With the Idaho offense in transition and the defense bad, don't be surprised if the visitors keep this close. An offensive show? Maybe not: Note that Idaho carries a 6-1 run under the total into the new season. Projected Score: Idaho 24, Bowling Green 20
Gridiron Gold
DETROIT LIONS at BUFFALO BILLS
Detroit (3-0 SU/ATS) has a decent QB rotation of Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton and mobile Zac Robinson. They've been a preseason beast, with a 34-3 win at home over Cincy, a 30-28 win at Cleveland and Saturday's 34-10 blowout of the Pats. • The Lions' hurry-up attack confused the Patriots. "That is part of our offense," coach Jim Schwartz said. "We practice it every day.” What was impressive about the Lions' hurry-up offense Saturday wasn't just the tempo, it was the diversity of plays. They operated out of the shotgun formation, out of one-back sets, out of empty backfield sets, with two tight ends or with three wideouts. And quarterback Matthew Stafford, forever calm, cool and collected, engineered it all flawlessly. Rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley had surgery to repair a broken bone in his left foot and is still not ready. The Lions are 11-2 ATS in preseason against the AFC. They are 2-1 over the total this preseason and on a 5-2 run over the total in August. The Bills (1-2 SU/ATS) QB rotation is Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen, Brad Smith and Levi Brown. They looked lost in a 10-3 loss at Chicago with just 190 total yards and a 24-10 loss at Denver. Denver held an advantage in passing yards of 187-44 in the first half. Buffalo showed some offense in Week 3 with a 35-32 comeback win over Jacksonville with 443 yards, but the run defense was gouged for 145 yards, so this team has thin depth and a lot of problems. This is their second straight home game. Few WRs: The Buffalo Bills' receiving corps is depleted. The Bills lost starting WR Donald Jones to a head injury after he took a wicked hit and will miss some time. WR Naaman Roosevelt will be sidelined for the next two weeks with a sprained ankle, veterans Craig Davis and Roscoe Parrish are not 100%. In the wake of the trade of Lee Evans, the Bills really could use Davis' veteran presence on the field as the offense gets ready for the regular season. • The shuffling of the offensive line, which didn't allow a sack, seemed to work against Jacksonville. Demetrius Bell started at left tackle and rotated with Andy Levitre. When Levitre was moved to left tackle, Chad Rinehart worked at left guard. The offensive line gave Bills quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen and Levi Brown enough time to complete 26 of 46 passes for 290 yards and three TDs. "I thought the protection was good from every group that was out there," coach Chan Gailey said. The Bills' first-round draft choice Marcell Dareus had his left ankle heavily wrapped Thursday. Three of the Bills projected starting linebackers — Shawne Merriman (leg soreness), Chris Kelsay (eye surgery, according to Bills website) and Reggie Torbor are ailing. Bills Coach Chan Gailey is just 5-11 ATS in preseason. Projected Score: Lions 21, Bills 17
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Colts (1-2 SU/ATS) once again don't care about preseason, with QB Peyton Manning (neck) still out, forced to go with QBs Curtis Painter, Dan Orvlovsky and Scott Tolzien. They looked lost in the opener, a 33-10 loss to the St. Louis Rams, a 16-3 home loss to Washington and a 24-21 home loss over the Packers, their 26th loss in the past 30 preseason games. Injuries kept WRs Gonzalez (hamstring) and Austin Collie (knee) on the sideline. QB Painter was finally impressive the last game, 11 of 21 for 171 yards and 2 TDs against Green Bay. However, the defense blew a lead and gave up 345 yards. Beyond the starters, Colts' defensive backs are mostly unproven. There's experience at cornerback with Powers, one of the league's rising stars, Jacob Lacey and Justin Tryon. They share 47 NFL starts. But behind them lurks the unknown. The other five corners combine for 14 appearances and 16 tackles. Indy Coach Jim Caldwell is 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS in preseason, 8-3 over the total. Cincy (1-2 SU/ATS) is in transition, with QBs Bruce Gradkowski, rookie Andy Dalton and Dan Lefevour. Dalton has been designated the QB starter. In the first quarter of the first two games, Dalton was 7 of 16 for 45 yards with three interceptions. He looked sharp last week (11 of 17 for 130 yards) but that was against rebuilding Carolina, a 24-13 win. The offense still had 2 turnovers and did most of the damage on the ground (191 yds rushing). The Bengals have a new offensive coordinator in Jay Gruden. They looked like a team in transition in the opener, a 34-3 loss at Detroit, with only 205 total yards and even worse in a 27-7 loss to the Jets, with 3 turnovers while getting outgained 378-203. They have been outscored 74-34 in the three preseason games with 31 of the opponents’ points coming in the first quarter. Don't look for much offense. Projected Score: Bengals 13, Colts 10
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Chiefs haven't cared about any of their preseason games. Kansas City (0-3 SU/ATS) has QBs Matt Cassell, Tyler Palko and rookie Ricky Stanzi. They have had a 25-0 home loss to Tampa Bay, a 31-13 loss at Baltimore and a 14-10 home loss to the Rams. The Chiefs had just 137 yards and had trouble blocking for their quarterbacks in the opener, the ran for just 3.5 ypc against the Ravens. The Chiefs are last in the NFL in scoring and yardage through three exhibition games. Haley wouldn’t say whether the offensive starters, including quarterback Matt Cassel, would play more than usual at Green Bay. Starters in the final preseason game are generally pulled by the end of the first quarter. Todd Haley said he is preparing for the Chiefs for the regular season, which begins Sept. 11 against Buffalo at Arrowhead Stadium. The only concern here is the backup QB race: Palko and Stanzi will have three practices this week before Thursday’s final preseason game at Green Bay. Palko said he needs to take advantage of each of his chances and show that he’s not only capable of leading the Chiefs’ offense, but also of finishing drives with touchdowns. Haley said that film review of Friday’s 14-0 loss to St. Louis revealed that the Rams had a clear strategy of running the football against Kansas City — and that the Chiefs were consistently unable to make stops. The Rams rushed for 123 yards in the first half, scoring TDs on their first two possessions, and maintaining possession for all but 2 minutes, 13 seconds in the first quarter. The Chiefs ranked 14th in the NFL last season in rushing defense, allowing an average of 110.2 yards. The team added veteran nose tackle Kelly Gregg in free agency, and Haley has said his defense’s top priority is to stop the run. KC Coach Todd Haley is 1-10 SU, 0-11 ATS in preseason, plus 9-2 under the total. Green Bay (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS) goes with QBs Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell. The Packers are 3-0 over the total, with a 27-17 loss at Cleveland (leading 17-14 at the half), a 28-20 win over Arizona and a 24-21 comeback win at Indy. Few injuries: The Packers couldn't be sitting much prettier 10 days before their season opener. Only five starters have missed a practice this summer and only one of those missed more than three consecutive days. Pass rush concerns: Defensive end Mike Neal (knee) is being counted on to pick up the slack left when Cullen Jenkins was not re-signed, but he’s out and his absence raises questions whether the Packers can produce the same kind of pass rush out of their defensive line. C.J. Wilson remains sidelined with a concussion. Green Bay is 17-5 over the total in preseason under Mike McCarthy. Projected Score: Packers 20, Chiefs 16
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Tampa Bay (2-1 SU/ATS) comes in with a young QB rotation of Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Rudy Carpenter and Mike Coughlin. The team dominated the Chiefs in the opener, 25-0, facing two weak backup QBs, then got torched by the Pats before a 17-13 win over Miami. The Bucs have quite a bit invested in what could be the best offensive line in franchise history. The five starters — center Jeff Faine, guards Davin Joseph and Ted Larsen and tackles Donald Penn and Jeremy Trueblood — are slated to make $25.6 million in base salary this season. Gerald McCoy and rookie defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers form a talented young D-Line. Tampa Bay posted only 26 sacks last season, prompting the Bucs to choose Clayborn and Bowers with their first two draft picks. Bucs coach Raheem Morris is 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS in preseason, 6-5 over the total. Washington (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS) has a QB rotation of John Beck, Rex Grossman, Kellen Clemens, Matt Gutierrez and Ben Chappell. Mike Shanahan and son Kyle (the offensive coordinator) like Beck as the starter, with Grossman as the backup. Both played well last week in a 34-31 loss at Baltimore. The Redskins lead the NFL with 152.3 yards per game on the ground. A year after attempting fewer than 22 rushes per game — an average exceeded by all but one team — they have run 30.7 times per game. Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan is hopeful running Ryan Torain and receiver Brandon Banks will be healthy enough to play in the preseason finale against Tampa Bay on Thursday, but he said injured safety Kareem Moore might have to start the season on the physically unable to perform list. That would mean that Moore would sit out the first six weeks of the season. Defensive end Jarvis Jenkins is lost for the year. Redskins strong safety LaRon Landry said there is “no way” he will play in the team’s preseason finale against Tampa Bay. The Redskins are working on more two tight end sets to improve the running game and the short passing game of Shanahan's West Coast offense. Shanahan is 46-29 SU, 42-31-2 ATS in preseason, 12-5 ATS in Week 4. Projected Score: Redskins 23, Bucs 17
BALTIMORE RAVENS at ATLANTA FALCONS
Baltimore (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS) has QBs Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor and Hunter Cantwell. For the preseason, Taylor leads both Flacco and Hunter Cantwell in completions (35) and completion percentage (61.4 percent) and has a decent passer rating of 73.1. Ravens new WR Lee Evans had a memorable debut, tying David Reed for the team lead in catches (three) and receiving yards (68) in the Ravens’ 31-13 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. The offense was even better last week, a 34-31 comeback win over the Redskins with 452 yards (314 passing). The Ravens have had a lot or personnel changes: Since the playoffs, the Ravens have fired two offensive assistant coaches, lost another one to the Raiders, promoted a defensive coordinator, waived three of their best players and lost three more starters through free agency. The Ravens also lost offensive consultant Al Saunders, who became offensive coordinator for the Oakland Raiders. Shortly before training camp started, the Ravens cut key veterans like tight end Todd Heap, running back Willis McGahee, wide receiver Derrick Mason and defensive tackle Kelly Gregg to make salary cap room. The Ravens are 10-5 under the total in preseason. Atlanta (0-3) has QBs Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, John Parker Wilson and Adam Froman. The team hasn't shown much in preseason, coming off a 34-16 loss at Pittsburgh. Coach Mike Smith has been disappointed in the play of the secondary, giving up touchdown passes of 44 and 28 yards against Miami and getting torched by Pittsburgh for 224 yards, 13 of 21. Pittsburgh, on the strength off two long touchdown passes, held a 24-16 lead at halftime. “I’m concerned when you give up big plays,” Smith said. Even in a 15-13 loss at Jacksonville, they gave up 261 yards passing and 8 of 17 on third down. • Against an Atlanta defense that finished 22nd against the pass last season, the deep passes were bothersome because they came on third-down plays and the defense had shut down Pittsburgh’s rushing attack. Atlanta coach Mike Smith is 8-5 under the total in preseason. Projected Score: Falcons 21, Ravens 20
ST. LOUIS RAMS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Rams (3-0 SU/2-1 ATS) have QBs Sam Bradford, A.J. Feeley and Taylor Potts. St. Louis beat the Colts, 33-10, the Titans, 17-16 and the Chiefs, 14-10, so this defense is playing well. Although, they did give Tennessee 198 yards rushing on 35 carries - a 5.7-yard average. They have a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels, who has brought in the spread attack he ran in Denver and New England. The Rams used almost a smash-mouth approach against the Chiefs, emphasizing the run and the play-action pass when the starters were in the game. The Rams are 10-1 ATS in preseason against the AFC and hard driving Coach Steve Spagnuolo is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS in preseason. The Jaguars (1-2) have QB David Garrard, rookie QB Blaine Gabbert (10th overall pick in April’s draft), Todd Bouman and Luke McCown. The defense has been soft. They had a 47-12 loss at New England, a 15-13 win over Atlanta and Saturday's ugly 35-32 OT loss at Buffalo, allowing the anemic Bills 443 yards (153 rushing). The third preseason game is supposed to be a dress rehearsal, and the Jaguars showed many of the same problems that haunted them last season, when they lost their last three games. Their pass defense was shredded by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who hadn't put a touchdown on the board in their first two preseason games. The Jaguars' passing game was erratic as the first-stringers had only one first down in their first three series. The Jaguars put little pressure on Fitzpatrick. What the Jaguars now hope is that the return of four key defensive players - Kampman, Alualu, Session and Mincey - will upgrade their pass defense. And that the return of Maurice Jones-Drew and Britton could get the running game going, which could help the passing game get going. Jones-Drew and Kampman are supposed to return Thursday night in the final preseason. Del Rio indicated the Jaguars would like to have more of a deep passing game, but offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is reluctant to call those plays because the Jaguars don’t execute them well. Garrard completed 11 of 21 passes for 106 yards, was sacked once and had a 66.8 passer rating the last game. After three preseason games, the Jaguars are the only team to not have sacked an opposing quarterback. Last season the Jaguars had 26 sacks, up from 14 in 2009 Coach Jack Del Rio is 21-14 SU, 21-13-1 ATS in August, 10-4-1 ATS as a dog. He's also 6-2 ATS in Week 4 of preseason. Projected Score: Jaguars 21, Rams 17
DALLAS COWBOYS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Dallas (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has Jason Garrett in his first preseason as head coach, plus new DC Rob Ryan. Their QB rotation is good with Tony Romo, veteran Jon Kitna and mobile Stephen McGee. Dallas had a 24-23 home win over Denver, throwing it 33 times and running it 30, a 20-7 loss at home to San Diego, with 3 turnovers, and a 23-17 win at Minnesota. They started three rookies in the offensive line in a preseason game against the Vikings. QB Tony Romo, taking snaps from rookie center Kevin Kowalski for the first time, was sacked only once. C Kevin Kowalski played all four quarters, replacing Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode, whom the Cowboys cut. Kowalski probably won't remain the starting center. He'll likely give way to second-year player Phil Costa, himself an undrafted free agent. If Costa is at center, he will be the third new starter on the offensive line. It would give the Cowboys -- who released veterans Leonard Davis and Marc Colombo before training camp -- a combined 14 years' experience on the front five. Last year, it was 36. Cowboys backup tight end Martellus Bennett (ankle sprain) is out. John Phillips likely will take over as the backup tight end in Bennett's absence. Dallas is on a 7-3 run over the total in preseason. The Miami QB rotation is Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Tom Brandstater and Pat Devlin. Miami (2-1 SU/ATS) came from a 17-0 deficit to win at Atlanta, 28-23, though the offense had just 263 total yards and averaged 2.3 yards per rush. They had a 20-10 win over Carolina and a 17-13 loss at Tampa, so this offense is not clicking. The Dolphins’ offensive line seeking cohesiveness; with Jake Long back and the first game rapidly approaching, Miami is focusing on its offensive line. The Dolphins offensive line, particularly the right side, is big and not particularly quick. It is built on size rather than speed. The Miami offensive line looked overmatched in the preseason's most important game. The unit yielded three sacks of starting QB Chad Henne against the quick Tamp Bay defense. The right side of the line was particularly disastrous for right tackle Marc Colombo. Projected Score: Dolphins 20, Cowboys 17
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
Pittsburgh (2-1 SU/ATS) has a QB rotation of Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon. It appears veteran Charlie Batch will move up as the No. 2 quarterback behind Roethlisberger after Leftwich was injured while scrambling on the first series of the third quarter in Saturday night's 34-16 victory against the Falcons. That means the Steelers will probably try to get Batch plenty of work with the first and second units in the final preseason game in Carolina Thursday night. Dixon was scheduled to receive plenty of playing time against the Falcons and Panthers, possibly in an attempt to showcase and trade the fourth-year quarterback. Dixon is an unrestricted free agent after the season and the Steelers believe he wants to play for a team where he would at least be the No. 2 quarterback. The offensive line has some minor injuries: two-fifths of his starting offensive line were banged up in left tackle Jonathan Scott (sprained left ankle), and right guard Ramon Foster. Starting left guard Chris Kemoeatu is on the physically-unable-to-perform list with a knee injury. The left ankle injury to Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, the same ankle he injured when he missed the Super Bowl. Pouncey, though, should be OK, but it is unlikely he will play in Carolina. Mike Tomlin is 15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS in preseason, 13-6-1 under the total. Carolina (1-2 SU/ATS) has new coach Ron Rivera (former Chargers defensive coordinator) and new DC Sean McDermott, who previously headed up an attacking Philadelphia Eagles defense. They beat the Giants, 20-10, in the opener at home, then looked lost on the road in a 20-10 loss at Miami and a 24-13 loss at Cincy. So that’s 2-1 under the total with a team that couldn’t find the end zone at all in 2010. They go with rookie QB Cam Newton, Jimmy Clausen and No. 3 QB Derek Anderson. The Panthers went 1 for 13 on third-down conversions in Game 1, 3 for 12 in Game 2, 5 of 15 in Week 3. Neither Newton and Jimmy Clausen have played well. Miami outgained Carolina, 301-90, in the first half while building a 17-0 lead. The pass blocking and run blocking have been suspect. The Panthers' offensive line is supposed to be a strength. Instead, the O-line has been stalwart on one play, pushed around on the next. On Thursday night against Cincinnati, the Panthers got off to a promising start when tailback DeAngelo Williams gained 18 yards on his first run. After that, however, Williams and No. 2 tailback Jonathan Stewart combined for 12 carries for only 22 yards (1.8 per carry). Time and again, both backs were drilled just as they crossed the line of scrimmage. Carolina is 1-5 SU/ATS in preseason against Pittsburgh. Projected Score: Steelers 17, Panthers 13
HOUSTON TEXANS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Houston (3-0 US/ATS) QB rotation is Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart and rookie T.J. Yates. The defense has new faces in the secondary, which was needed as this team couldn’t cover anyone. They beat the Jets, 20-16, the Saints, 27-14, and a 30-7 win at San Fran. The Texans have a new defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips, using a 3-4 to much success. The Texans had three sacks in the first 16 minutes of the opener, four sacks in the first half and seven in the game. Defensive end J.J. Watt, the first-round pick, has been outstanding in camp. The Texans have given up yards between the tackles against the Jets and Saints. Inside LB DeMeco Ryans (elbow)and nose tackle Earl Mitchell (knee) are injured. Gary Kubiak has some things to worry about: RB Arian Foster is sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Mario Williams hasn't looked comfortable at outside linebacker. Regardless, this defense - in scheme and personnel - is light-years better than last year's. Houston is 16-7 over the total in preseason. Minnesota (1-2 SU/ATS) has a new coach in Leslie Frazier, who was interim coach last season. The Vikings QBs are Donovan McNabb, rookie Christian Ponder, Joe Webb. They had a 14-3 loss at Tennessee, a 20-7 win at Seattle and a 23-17 home loss to Dallas. This is their second straight home game. The injuries to Scott Kooistra and Kevin Williams are a setback for the Vikings; All-Pro defensive tackle Kevin Williams will miss the rest of the preseason. The offensive line: Most coaches want their starting five in place by the third preseason game. The Vikings are unsettled up front. They still don’t know who their right guard is, and the matter worsened when Scott Kooistra went on injured reserve last week because of a neck injury. The O-line is easily the biggest concern on this team. The offensive linemen also are being asked to get up to speed on a new blocking scheme under line coach Jeff Davidson. Projected Score: Vikings 20, Texans 17
CLEVELAND BROWNS at CHICAGO BEARS
Cleveland (1-2 SU/ATS) has a new coach in Pat Shurmur, who is also the offensive coordinator, while Dick Jauron is the new defensive coordinator. Under new coordinator Dick Jauron, the Browns are switching from a 3-4 to 4-3 defense. Shurmur works with QBs Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace and Troy Weatherhead. McCoy has been impressive, with a 27-17 preseason victory over Green Bay opener and 10 of 18 in a 30-28 home loss to Detroit. The offense had 271 yards, but the defense gave up 407 to the Lions! Last week they lost 24-14 at Philly, down 24-0 in the 4th. The Browns are throwing the football more. Offensive line concerns: Left guard Eric Steinbach figures to open the season still nursing a back injury. Steinbach's absence enabled the Browns to force-feed rookie Jason Pinkston with the No. 1 unit. Pinkston has responded well enough for the Browns to commit to him to open the season. Considering that right guard Shawn Lauvao played sparingly as a rookie, that puts two untested guards in the starting lineup. Lauvao, though, has had a very good camp. • LB depth a concern: Weakside linebacker Chris Gocong hasn't played in a preseason game because of a neck stinger. Backup middle linebacker Titus Brown will miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain. The Browns need to bring in a linebacker who has experience in the 4-3 defense at more than one position. Cleveland plays its second straight road game here and is 1-6 SU/ATS its last 7 August away games. Having an offensive-minded head coach calling the plays has been a plus and Cleveland is 2-1 over the total. The Bears (1-2 SU/2-1 ATS) QB rotation is Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Nathan Enderle. Chicago had a 10-3 home win over the Bills. They allowed 190 total yards and the offense had 164 yards rushing, then got flogged at the NY Giants Monday night, a 41-13 loss, and a 14-13 loss at Tennessee. While preseason isn’t a good indicator of a lot of things to come, the Bears were 31st on offense in exhibitions a year ago and gave up the most sacks. They were 30th on offense in the regular season and allowed the most sacks. Injuries: Linebacker Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are hurting. The Bears have solid depth on the interior but the linebackers are thin now. It was an ugly night for special teams. Chicago is 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS as preseason chalk, 6-1 under the total in Week 4. Projected Score: Bears 17, Browns 16
TENNESSEE TITANS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Titans (2-1 SU/2-1 ATS) QB rotation is Matt Hassellbeck, Jake Locker and Rusty Smith. QB Matt Hasselbeck acknowledged after Saturday’s win over the Bears that theTitans are still working out the kinks in the passing game. The Titans still are playing Jeff Fisher-style football. They have a physical, pass-rushing, run-stuffing defense, and a strong running game on offense. Tennessee has a new coach in Mike Munchak. Munchak clearly felt he needed to change the culture at Baptist Sports Park as the atmosphere became too relaxed in recent years under Jeff Fisher. Munchak, who fashioned a Pro Football Hall of Fame career as a no-nonsense offensive lineman, has gone old school and is running a tough camp. That no-nonsense was on display in the opener, a 14-3 home win over the Vikings. The defense allowed 248 total yards. They had a 17-16 loss at St. Louis and a 14-13 win over Chicago, so they are 3-0 under the total. Munchak said running back Javon Ringer of Michigan State is expected to miss a third exhibition game at New Orleans on Thursday, though he is expected to practice after being limited by a sore hip. New Orleans (2-1 SU/ATS) has a short week, beating the Raiders Sunday night on the road, 40-20. "I was pleased with the effort, and I was pleased with the energy," Saints Coach Sean Payton said of his defense. QB rotation of Drew Brees, Chase Daniel and Ryan Clobourn. Daniels looked sharp in a 24-3 rout of the 49ers, and the defense allowed 234 yards. They had a 27-14 loss at Houston, then blew out Oakland Sunday night. They have a new backfield with rookie RB Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. The Saints defense weren't as bad as they were a week earlier in Houston, but there still were troubling signs. Missed tackles. Gaping holes in the line. Pass rushers incapable of defeating one-on-one blocks. Coach Sean Payton is 12-11 SU, 13-10 ATS in preseason. Projected Score: Saints 24, Titans 20
DENVER BRONCOS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Denver (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has a new one in John Fox, the former Carolina coach. The QB rotation is experienced/versatile, with QB Kyle Orton the starter, QBs Brady Quinn and mobile Tim Tebow. In the preseason finale at Arizona on Sept. 1, the starters are not expected to play much, if at all. Broncos coach John Fox hinted that backup quarterback Tim Tebow would get more reps than Brady Quinn, the team’s other backup, in at least one of the final two preseason games. Orton probably won’t play in the Broncos’ final preseason game. Whether Quinn or Tebow starts in that game, Tebow is expected to get the lion’s share of the playing time. Depth at running back could be an immediate concern, with LenDale White (cut), and rookie Mario Fannin (knee sprain) and Willis McGahee working his way into the offense since signing a four-year deal with the team. McGahee and Knowshon Moreno are firmly positioned as the team’s top two backs, but the injuries could give a player such as Lance Ball an opportunity to get a little more work. Injuries to DE Ty Warren, Marcus Thomas leave big dents in Broncos’ defensive line. Denver Broncos linebacker D.J. Williams out 3-4 weeks with dislocated elbow. Denver is on a 6-1 over the total in preseason. Arizona (1-2 SU/ATS) unveils new QB Kevin Kolb, learning the new playbook with offensive coordinator Mike Miller. Beyond him it’s QBs Richard Bartel, Brodie Croyle (signed last week) and injured John Skelton. Max Hall was waived-injured last week. They had a 24-18 win at Oakland with 400 yards, a 28-20 loss at Green Bay and a 34-31 home loss to San Diego (3-0 over the total). WR Larry Fitzgerald and new TE Todd Heap give the Cardinals two proven threats in the red zone. Cornerback is wide open: The Cardinals are playing without cornerback Michael Adams, one of their best cover men on special teams. Adams is out for at a few weeks after undergoing knee surgery a week ago. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is gone, traded to the Eagles as part of the deal for quarterback Kevin Kolb. Arizona Cardinals cornerback Greg Toler suffered a torn ACL Saturday in his left knee and is out for the season. The lack of a consistent pass rush was a big factor in the team’s 5-11 record last season, so it’s a point of emphasis this off-season. Coach Ken Wisenhunt is 6-13 SU, 7-12 ATS in preseason. He is 2-6 SU/ATS vs the AFC in August. Projected Score: Cardinals 24, Broncos 21
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The 49ers (1-2 SU/ATS) unveil new Coach Jim Harbaugh, bringing in his version of the West Coast offense. Their rotation is QBs Alex Smith, rookie Colin Kaepernick and Luke McCown. Harbaugh bucked tradition last week and didn’t play his first-string units into the third quarter Saturday. Instead, key backups such as rookie QB Colin Kaepernick, running back Anthony Dixon and WR Kyle Williams saw action against Houston’s first-string unit. Harbaugh wanted to see how San Francisco’s reserves fare against NFL starters. But he was embarrassed at the 30-7 defeaet. "It's a bitter pill to swallow when you're beat that thoroughly, in pretty much all phases," Harbaugh said. "I think defense wasn't quite as bad as special teams, and special teams wasn't quite as bad as offense. I think if you're just looking to find something positive to say offensively, it's not easy tonight," Harbaugh said. "I'm not going to single anybody out. The players will hear it from us; they don't need to read about it as well." The first-string defense exited after three series, running back Frank Gore didn't play, and quarterback Alex Smith played four of six offensive series in the first half while throwing to targets such as sixth-round pick Ronald Johnson. Still, how to explain the offensive line, which reverted to the form it flashed in a hideous loss to New Orleans in the preseason opener? San Francisco's front five stayed largely intact in the first half, but it was bullied by a Texans defense that had collected 11 sacks in the first two preseason games. The Niners allowed just two first-half sacks, but quarterbacks Alex Smith and rookie Colin Kaepernick were consistently pummeled in the pocket. The pair combined to complete 8 of 22 passes for 69 yards with two interceptions, posting a quarterback rating of 7.6. Linebacker Patrick Willis, on coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense: "It’s being fast on every play, beating the clock. Everything we do is moving at a fast tempo." San Diego (2-1 SU/ATS) has WR Vincent Jackson aboard, and a QB rotation of Philip Rivers, Billy Volek and Scott Tolzien. They have new coaches directing the defense and special teams. The Chargers had a 10-0 halftime lead, but lost 24-17 to Seattle, on 20-7 at Dallas, then a 34-31 win at Arizona last week. Larry English and Shaun Phillips got run over and run around enough that there will be plenty to work on before the Sept. 11 season opener. The Cardinals ran 16 times for 125 yards in the first three quarters. O-Line concerns: Tyronne Green may be in a competition to start at right guard, but he is perhaps more valuable to the Chargers as a utility player. Starter Marcus McNeill continues to rehabilitate his surgically repaired knee and Brandyn Dombrowski was nursing sore knees. Projected Score: Chargers 23, 49ers 21
Easy Baseball Betting
Brewers [-175] versus Cardinals (1.0 Units) - The Brewers are one of baseball's biggest surprises this season. We see them fending off a sweep today against divisional foe Cardinals. Even though we don't like taking divisional foe favorites, these Brewers are fighting off a sweep so internally they won't have a let down. And these teams fares quite well when priced in this range. This late in the season (beyond 120 games), teams fending off being swept at home in the third game are 47-20, +9.3 units if priced better than -150. It is stil reasonably good when the two teams are rivals. You see, this late in the season, you either have something to play for and will win because you are a favorite. Or you have nothing to play for but when fending off a sweep it is pride at home. Plus to be that big a favorite, you must have a decent pitcher on the mound that doesn't care about what record his team is rather his career too..
Angels [-157] versus Mariners (1.0 Units) - The Mariners' win in Game 3 assured that they could not "lose" this series. Not that it really matters either way. But from the Angels' perspective it does matter. They are only a few games back of the Rangers and they have their second best units pitcher on the mound today. Teams like the Mariners that are almost 20 games below 500 just do not play out 4 game series' that well... Here's the proof. Taking 500 or better teams against teams below 44% win percentage in the fourth game of a series is 112-62, +19 units in the second half of a season, the past 7 years. In fact, it is a STRONG play if the teams are rivals. 52-22, +19 units. So like we said, we don't mind taking the rival favorite here because of the Game 4 who cares dynamic from the side of the loser team.
Mississippi St -29 over Memphis (1.0 Units) - The Mississippi State Bulldogs face the Memphis Tigers this Thursday as both teams officially open their 2011-2012 college football campaign. This game is a total mismatch on paper and the spread justifies this idea. The line opened at MSU – 24 and has been bet up to its current line of MSU -29. Since this is week 1, and there are a lot of uncertainties, we like to bet on line analysis and ‘betting the line’. One of our favorite angles is betting on a road team if they are the far more superior team and are laying >21 points. Although it might be tempting to bet the home dog in this game, beware of the Tigers. They are 0-7 ATS for the last 3 years against BCS schools and were an abysmal 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS last year. SEC teams feature fast, lightening-quick teams, and the Bulldogs are certainly in that class. The Bulldogs may start off slow in this game, but rest assured: the cream will rise and the better team will come out victorious and start piling on the points.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Los Angeles Angels
Big pitching mismatch in favor of the Angels tonight as Ervin Santana faces off against Charlie Furbush. The Angels have won seven of Santana's previous eight starts as his great 2011 season continues. His KW ratio is 153 to 51. Meanwhile, Furbush is a terrible 0-5 in five night starts w/ a 10.24 ERA. Look for the Angels to bounce back from last night's loss as they are 15-4 off a division loss in which they were favored. They are also 30-15 if they scored two runs or less last game.
Ray Monohan
St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
At 4:10 PM ET today at Miller Park, in Milwaukee its the Brewers hosting the Cardinals in game 3 of their 3 game set. On the mound today its the Brewers RH Yovani Gallardo (15-8, 3.37 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Brandon Dickson (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Dickson was recalled from Triple-A Memphis to give struggling lefty Jaime Garcia extra days rest. Gallardo is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Cards in 2011, with both games played in St. Louis. He held them to one hit over eight innings of a 4-0 victory May 7. The Brewers, now 50-18 at home, haven’t been swept in Wisconsin since Aug. 24-26, 2010, by the Dodgers. Milwaukee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against St. Louis. STL are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee. MIL are 40-12 in their last 52 home games. This is a crucial game in the season long series, as the Cards must win Thursday and sweep the Brewers next week in St. Louis to have a real shot at overtaking them.
Rocketman
LA Dodgers @ Pittsburgh
Play: LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are now 19-6 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Pittsburgh is 2-9 this year after getting shutout. Pittsburgh is 34-73 last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. LA Dodgers have won 8 of their last 9 games overall. Pittsburgh has lost 6 of their last 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers today!
Dennis Macklin
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
This is really a case of two teams playing out the string. The Marlins are 4-13 in their L17 and 9-34 without Hanley Ramirez. Tonight they'll troy out ex-Yankee prospect Clay Hensley who is 2-3 with a 6.08 ERA in eight starts. His ERA is 7.79 in his L3. The Mets have won five of six and must have went into the Cold Case file to find Miguel Batista who strangely enough has 239 MLB starts, his last start against the Marlins in 2003. There's not a whole lot to chose from on tonight's MLB card but based on current for a small flyer on the Mets might be in order.
Steve Janus
Boston Red Sox -1.5
After scoring just 2 runs in the opener against C.C. Sabathia, the Red Sox offense exploded for 9 runs on Tuesday. I look for the Red Sox to put up another huge number tonight, which has me thinking they will easily win this game by at least 2 runs.
New York will send out A.J. Burnett, who has just been awful in his last two starts. Burnett allowed 7 runs in just 1.7 innings of work at Minnesota on Aug. 20, then followed that up by allowing 9 runs in five innings at Baltimore. Neither of those offenses come close to what the Red Sox will send to the field on Wednesday. Struggling on the road is nothing new for Burnett, who has a 6.86 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 12 starts. Burnett also has a 5.16 ERA against the Red Sox in 16 career starts.
Boston will counter with Jon Lester, who is 8-2 with a 3.62 ERA in 15 career starts against the Yankees. Lester comes in throwing the ball extremely well with a 3-0 record and 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts. He is likely to give up a few runs in this one, but that won't hurt their chances of winning by at least two.
Lester is 13-2 against the run line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season and 18-8 against the run line vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. BET THE RED SOX -1.5!
Ray Monohan
St.Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
At 4:10 PM ET today at Miller Park, in Milwaukee its the Brewers hosting the Cardinals in game 3 of their 3 game set. On the mound today its the Brewers RH Yovani Gallardo (15-8, 3.37 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Brandon Dickson (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Dickson was recalled from Triple-A Memphis to give struggling lefty Jaime Garcia extra days rest. Gallardo is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Cards in 2011, with both games played in St. Louis. He held them to one hit over eight innings of a 4-0 victory May 7. The Brewers, now 50-18 at home, haven't been swept in Wisconsin since Aug. 24-26, 2010, by the Dodgers. Milwaukee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against St. Louis. STL are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee. MIL are 40-12 in their last 52 home games. This is a crucial game in the season long series, as the Cards must win Thursday and sweep the Brewers next week in St. Louis to have a real shot at overtaking them. 1 Word. Gallardo.
Sean Murphy
Bowling Green @ Idaho
Pick: Bowling Green +6.5
Bowling Green's 2-10 campaign last year may look like a disaster on paper, but it's important to note that it was only year one of a rebuild for the program.
The reality is, the Falcons actually made some positive strides before succumbing to the injury bug in the final month of the season.
Remember, Bowling Green was 5-4 ATS through its first nine games, and opened the 2010 season with three consecutive ATS victories. In last year's opener, the Falcons went on the road and gave a quality Troy squad all it could handle in a 30-27 loss, easily covering the +14.5 spread. In fact, BGSU put up at least 20 points in each of its first seven games.
As I mentioned, the Falcons were ravaged by injuries later in the season, particularly on the offensive line. A bad running game only got worse, at precisely the wrong time, as the Falcons simply weren't able to win the battles in the trenches late in the season. From November on, when the weather starts to turn, unless you have some semblance of a ground attack, you're not going to stay competitive in the MAC.
The cupboard isn't fully stocked, but it's getting there, as Bowling Green returns seven starters from last year on each side of the ball. That includes the duo of QB Matt Schilz and WR Kamar Jorden. That tandem has the potential to rival the Tyler Sheehan/Freddie Barnes pitch and catch team that terrorized the opposition in the past. The Falcons ground game can only get better. Jordan Hopgood is expected to get the bulk of the carries, and he proved he has a nose for the end zone last year, running for six touchdowns on fewer than 80 carries.
Idaho isn't talking about rebuilding, only reloading. There's no question the departure of QB Nathan Enderle hurts, although his replacement, Brian Reader is more than capable of keeping the offense rolling.
The Vandals track record concerns me, however. Even with Enderle and an absolutely loaded receiving corps last season, they still went 6-7 ATS.That included an ugly 1-4 ATS mark against FBS competition here at the Kibbie Dome.
While the Falcons have their issues in the backfield, the Vandals aren't much further ahead. Idaho does have a wealth of explosive running backs, but none of them have had a great deal of past success. I suspect the Vandals will have a tough time closing things out should they hold a fourth quarter lead, without a physical ground game that can keep the chains, and the clock moving.
This is a tougher test for Idaho than it appears on paper. Note that Bowling Green is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 lined road games, and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 contests as a road underdog.
The Falcons are making the long trip to Moscow, Idaho but that's already been factored into the line. This time around, it's their opponent that's dealing with a number of key injuries. The Vandals will be without their leading tackler from a year ago, Robert Siavii, as well as one of the anchors on their offensive line, Kyle Salm. That's not to mention the absence of starting wideout Preston Davis, and possibly WR/KR Justin Veltung as well.
These two teams put on quite a show in the Humanitarian Bowl two years ago, with Idaho pulling out a 43-42 victory. Obviously many of the key players from that game are no longer around, but I won't be surprised if we see another entertaining, back-and-forth affair in the 2011 opener. Take Bowling Green.
Scott Rickenbach
49ers @ Chargers
PICK: Under 38
In preseason NFL action where their game has a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points, the Chargers are a solid 6-1 to the under the last three years! After allowing 24 points last week, look for the San Diego defense to "come to play" at home this week! Prior to the loss to Seattle last week, the Chargers had allowed just 7 points in their prior game (at Arizona). Note that San Diego's offense has been held under 240 yards each of the last two weeks and they certainly will be employing a "plain vanilla" approach as they look ahead to the regular season. As for the Niners, they've stayed under the total in all 3 of their preseason games and their offense has struggled badly in two of their three games. San Francisco's defense has allowed an average of just 251 yards per game the last two weeks. Look for more of the same here!