SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON –1½ +104 over N.Y. Yankees
You’ll notice the total in this game is 9½ and that’s a pretty big number when you consider that Jon Lester and his 3.09 ERA is on the hill for the Red Sox. Over the past month, Lester’s ERA is even lower at 2.78. So, runs are going to have to come from somewhere and they’re likely to come against the most fragile pitcher in the majors, A.J. Burnett. Burnett has made 27 starts this year and only eight have been of the quality variety. Over the past month, covering five starts Burnett has an ERA of 11.91 and it’s not like he’s faced some strong offense over that span either. No, Burnett has faced the Orioles, Twins, K.C., Angels and the White Sox and has allowed a total of 30 runs in 22.2 IP. He’s another bad outing away from being sent to the pen and this start could and likely will send him there. Burnett has had some bad luck, no question about it but it’s his fragile state of mind that makes him unplayable. Burnett’s confidence is shot and he has to have a daunting feeling knowing that he’s pitching at Fenway against this powerful offense. In one start against Boston this season, Burnett allowed seven runs in 5.2 frames for an ERA of 11.23. What chance does he have today? With the Red Sox dominating the season series 11-3, and with a total of 9½, Burnett has about a 1% chance of success and when the manager says, "We've got to try to fix him," it's best to pass on A.J. Burnett. Play: Boston –1½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
Wake Forest/SYRACUSE Under 49
Man, this number seems extremely high when you consider that both teams struggled on offense a year ago and both defenses figure to be better this season. Both teams bring back practically all their starters on both offense and defense and it’s also worth noting that the Deacons have two new defensive coordinators after former defensive coordinator Brad Lambert departed for Charlotte. The Demon Deacons are coming off a bad year in which they won just three games. However, this is a proven successful program and they’ll return to respectability soon enough and it starts at the defensive end. Expect Wake to grind out games, as they don’t have the offense to be competitive in a shootout. Orange coach Doug Marrone preaches defense first. Syracuse’s defense went from 108th ranked in ’08 to the seventh ranked defense a year ago. That’s significant considering the Orange bring back just about everyone again. They were tremendous against the pass and in fact, ranked tops in the Big East in pass defense and don’t think that Deacs coach Jim Grobe isn’t aware of that because he is. With a relatively inexperienced QB for Wake, Grobe is not going to put him into compromising situations to start the year. Both defenses will be jacked right up to open the season and it would not surprise to see a grind it out, low scoring game and not come close to this number. Play: Wake Forest/Syracuse under 49 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +102
Boston bounced back nicely yesterday to improve to 11-3 in its season series with the Yankees. It has an excellent chance to improve on that mark this evening with Burnett taking the mound for New York. Burnett has been absolutely shelled in his 2 most recent starts, giving up 16 runs in just 6 2-3 innings of work. Plus, he's 0-3 on the ML in his last 3 and 2-7 on the ML in his last 9 starts against the Red Sox. He gave up 8 runs in an 11-6 defeat in June in his only start against Boston this season. Boston's Lester, meanwhile, has won 5 of his last 6 starts against the Yankees and is 8-2 lifetime against them with an ERA of 3.62. He checks into tonight's contest in a groove, going 3-0 with an ERA of 1.42 over his last 3 starts. The Sox won all 3 of those starts by at least 2 runs. We'll bet Boston on the run line.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)
The Milwaukee Brewers have not been swept at home in more than a year. Yovani Gallardo will try to extend his home dominance for the Brewers on Thursday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Gallardo (15-8, 3.37 ERA) is 9-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home this year. The righty is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Cards in 2011, with both games played in St. Louis. He held them to one hit over eight innings of a 4-0 victory May 7.
The Cardinals give the ball to Brandon Dickson tonight as he makes his major league debut. This is a very tough spot for Dickson, who was 8-9 with a 3.73 ERA this season for Triple-A Memphis.
The Brewers are the best home team in baseball at 50-18. Milwaukee is 31-5 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, winning by an average score of 5.1 to 3.1. Better yet, the Brewers are 29-3 as a home favorite of -150 or more, winning 5.3 to 3.0 on average. Roll with the Brew Crew on the Run Line Thursday.
Gregg Price
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +2½
There is no way G.B. gives a crap about this game. They are studying and practicing for N.O. next Thursday. McCarthy is 0-5 in week 4 pre-season games. Not only are the Pack preparing for the Saints, they also can't afford to get hurt with less time to heal than the other teams.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Cincinnati Over 8.5: Run support... Run support. That's just what the Phils give youngster Vance Worley. He doesn't really need as he has been pitching great this year, but they still give him 5.9 rpg overall and 6.43 rpg in his road starts, plus in his last 8 starts overall they have given him 7.5 rpg. In those last 8 starts the Over is 6-2 with an average of 10.9 rpg being scored. Vance has a 3.53 ERA on the road this year, with an average of 9.71 rpg being scored, but in his last 3 starts overall his ERA is up a bit at 4.50. Vance will be taking on an angry bunch of Reds that have been shutout the last 2 games. Even though they haven't scored a run the last 2 games this is still a team that hits .258 and they score 4.91 rpg at home. They should break through for a few runs today. Mike Leake comes in struggling with a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts and in 2 career starts vs the Phils he has a 6.90 ERA, with 15+ runs being scored in both games. Red''s home games have averaged 9.34 rpg and Mike's home starts have averaged 9 rpg and his day starts have averaged 11 rpg, while Vance's day starts have put up 13 rpg. I say this one goes over with ease.
3 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Baltimore Over 9.5: Last night I had this play and the Jays put 11 runs on the board themselves by the end of the 4th inning. I don't expect that to happen today, but I can see the teams getting to 10 runs in this one. Luis Perez is making his 3rd ever start for the Jays and he hasn't pitched that badly in the first 2 with a 1.64 ERA, but I see him having problems today vs a Baltimore team that has been killing lefty pitching of late as they have hit southpaws at a .343 clip and have scored 6.56 runs per 9 in their last 10 games. Overall the Orioles have scored 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games. The Jay's offense comes in ranked 4th in scoring this year (4.71 rpg) and in their last 10 games they have averaged 4.6 rpg, plus in their 8 games played here this year the Jays have averaged 6.3 rpg. Tommy Hunter must deal with this offense this year and he is struggling right now with a 5.86 ERA in his last 5 starts. He does have a 4.50 Era at home and has allowed 4 HR's in his 3 home starts this year. In 4 career starts vs the Jays, Tommy has a 8.21 ERA and has allowed 7 HR's in the 4 games. For the Records the Jays are ranked 4th in home runs this year.
1 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland/ Oakland Under 8.5: After 16 innings last night and then a day game today, I would not expect the offenses to be very fresh here. Gio owns an 0.89 ERA in 4 starts vs the Tribe, while Fausto has an ERA of 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts vs the A's. The Under is 20-5-1 in the last 26 games in this series, including all 6 games played this year, with not one of those 6 putting more than 8 runs on the board.
Bryan Power
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: St. Louis Rams +3.5
The Rams are looking to finish the NFL preseason perfect wrapping things up in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has not looked good thus far in NFLX action. St. Louis is allowing just 12 PPG as they continue to cover games this time of year for coach Steve Spagnuolo. This is his 3rd preseason at the helm in St. Louis and he's been very kind to bettors with an 8-3 ATS mark, going 9-2 straight up. Jacksonville's defense has been very shaky, allowing 47 and 35 points in two of their games. Offensively, neither QB (David Garrard or rookie Blaine Gabbert) has looked good. Preseason favorites with a losing record are just 8-31 ATS since 1993 against teams with a winning record in the final week. Look for the Rams to win outright this evening.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -145
The Rangers are in a tight race with the Angels in the AL West so they won't be lacking any motivation after last night's defeat. Plus, Texas is bringing the right guy to the mound tonight - C.J. Wilson. The Rangers are 24-9 in his last 33 home starts and 12-1 in his last 13 home starts when valued as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll take Texas.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -1.5 +117
Washington has dropped 7 of its last 8 and 5 of those defeats have come by at least 2 runs. The Braves defeated Wang 6-4 on August 3, and I expect them to get the better of his again tonight. Washington certainly doesn't figure to get much off Hudson, who's 12-3 lifetime against the Nats with an ERA of 1.97. We'll take the Braves on the run line.
Hollywood Sports
St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: St. Louis Rams
With their 3-0 preseason record, the Rams are looking to build off their momentum this fall. Said running back Steven Jackson about the state of his team right now: "I actually look more to the quality of football, regardless of if we win or lose. I think we're playing some good quality football. And hopefully, this momentum that we're building, the confidence that we're building, carries over to when it counts." With new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in two, there are probably a few things this club would like to accomplish in this final preseason contest. Head coach Steve Spagnola has proven he likes to put his club in a position to succeed in these preseason games as the Rams have now covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 preseason games under Spagnola. Jacksonville (1-2) will likely give rookie QB Blaine Gabbert plenty of snaps tonight after completing just 6 of 13 passes last week for a mere 52 yards and a low QB Rating of 50.8. The Jaguars' defense has struggled as well by allowing their three preseason opponents to average 31.7 PPG along with 394.3 total YPG. Jacksonville is being outscored by a whopping 12.0 PPG in the preseason -- and the Rams have covered 7 straight preseason games against teams being outscored by at least 6.0 PPG in the preseason. Take the points with the Rams.