Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday September, 13

Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rutgers/ South Florida Under 46: I like the Under in this one. The Rutgers offense has been poor so far as they have scored just 2 offenses TD’s in their first 2 games. They are having problems throwing the ball coming in averaging just 144 ypg through the air so far. This is a team that really plays ball control offense with their run game (179 ypg on the ground) and then relies on their defense to win games. Defense has been a staple of this Rutgers team as they have allowed 19 ppg or less in 3 of their last 4 years, and this year is starting out in the same fashion. Rutgers comes in allowing just 205 ypg and 3.3 yards per play so for o the year, while allowing just 12 total points in their 1st two games. I know it’s vs Tulane and Howard, but still dating back to last year they have now allowed less than 20 points in 8 of their last 11 games. USF had their problems on defense last week vs Nevada, but this Rutgers offense is no where even close to the offense the Bulls saw last week. The Bulls defense has 7 starters back from last year and should bounce back with a good showing in this one. The Bulls offense is solid, but they are not going up against weak defenses like they have the last two weeks and I don’t just see them going up and down the field in this one. Rutgers will make them take time consuming drives, while they will go on their own time consuming drives as well. I look for this one to be in the mid 30’s at best.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. Houston
Pick: Philadelphia
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The Phillies' (72-71) Tyler Cloyd (1-1, 4.24 ERA) is set to square off against the Astros' (45-98) Luke Harrell (10-9, 3.83 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Cloyd threw just 76 pitches in a no-decision vs. the Rockies in the second game of a double header on Sunday, giving up four runs off eight hits in four frames of work. It was a setback after dominating in his first start. The rookie has been dominant at times, and looked very much his age at others. Still, Cloyd has shown fantastic strikeout potential, and now benefits greatly from facing the light-hitting Astros.
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Harrell gave up three runs off seven hits over five frames, earning a no-decision for his effort in his team's eventual 5-3 victory; he stuck five and walked four. The right-hander is now winless in his last three starts, posting a 2.37 ERA in his last 19 innings of work, a victim of poor run support.
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The Philadelphia Phillies have been surging, and are now just three games out of the second NL Wild Card spot. I played them yesterday, and Cliff Lee had a superlative performance in his team's 3-1 win over the Marlins.
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A four game set against cellar dweller Houston is just what the doctor ordered.
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You'll want to keep your eyes on Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins who had a two-run bomb yesterday, and who is batting .324 (24 for 74) with five long-balls and 15 RBIs over his last 19 games.
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I'll classify these starters a "wash"; the difference is clearly at the plate, and with the momentum that Philadelphia has been building over the last month; consider laying what I deem to be a very reasonable price in this matchup!

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
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Minnesota will host the Royals tonight, in the final game of a three game series at Target Field. The Twins will look to avoid the sweep, after losing the first two games badly, getting blown out twice by the Royals. Minnesota will send a starting pitcher to the mound tonight, still looking for his first win of the season.
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Liam Hendriks (0-7, 6.20 ERA) has not had a good season, however he has been much better lately. He didn't earn a decision in either of his previous two starts, with the Twins winning one of the two, in a pair of close one-run ballgames. Prior to that he tossed a complete game gem, allowing a single run on just three hits, but losing 1-0 to the Mariners. Hendriks is in a good spot to get his first win of the season here tonight, going up against a struggling Royals hurler.
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Luis Mendoza will get the nod for the Royals tonight, and he hasn't been sharp in recent starts. Mendoza (7-9, 4.63 ERA) allowed five runs on 10 hits, surrendering three home runs in just five innings, earning a no-decision in a 7-5 ballgame that the Royals went on to win in his last start. He has also given up five homers in his last 15 innings pitched.
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The Twins will have an opportunity to get Hendriks his first victory tonight, while avoiding the sweep. I recommend a second look at a play on Minnesota.

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indians at Rangers
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The Over is a decisive 19-6-3 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams played in Texas. The Rangers (85-57) won the second game of this series by a 5-2 score last night -- and despite this game finishing Under the Total, the Over remains 4-1-2 in the Texas' last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Holland who is 10-6 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season -- but he sees these numbers jump to a 5.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .241 opponent's batting average when at home. The Over is 19-8-1 in the Rangers' last 28 home games with Holland pitching as the favorite. Cleveland (59-84) has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. They counter with McAllister who is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this year. The Over is 5-2-2 in the Indians' last 9 games when McAllister was facing a team from the AL West. Take the Over in this one while listing both starting pitchers.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers 1-.5
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The Indians have dropped five straight Zach McCallister starts and all five were by at least two runs. In fact, the last eight times the Indians have lost a McCallister start, they've done so by two runs or more. They were outscored 49-14 in those games for an average margin of 4.4 rpg. Derek Holland takes the bump for the Rangers. Holland has been on fire over his last six starts. The lefthander is also a perfect 3-0 in five career starts against Cleveland. The Indians head into this one averaging just 3.6 rpg, while the Rangers plate 5.7 rpg at home against righthanders. We'll lay the run line with the Rangers on Thursday.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle fits a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a road win and left 10 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a home loss and scored 2 or less runs with 2 or less hits. Seattle has won 21 of the last 26 vs losing teams and all 3 times this season as a road favorite from -125 to -150. Toronto is just 3-9 as a home dog from +125 to +150. Seattle has Felix Hernandez going and he has a 2.92 road era which is far better than the 5.02 home era Alvarez for the Jays has. Toronto has lost 11 of his 14 home starts and will likely lose another here tonight.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Another big clash in Baltimore between these rivals with so much at stake. Jeremy Hellickson doesn't get any run support from this Tampa Bay offense that is 19th in runs scored and 27th in team batting average. He is 1-2 against the Orioles this season and Baltimore is fighting for a division title, one that would be a stunner from this hard working, overachieving team. The Orioles are 12-5 in their last 17 vs. the American League East and have been on an 11-5 run down the stretch. Lefty Wei-Yin Chen (12-9) has been a great addition and has fanned 14 Rays in 19 innings this season against them, so grab the hungry home team. Play the Orioles.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Great matchup tonight between Verlander and Sale as the Tigers and White Sox close out their key AL Central series. Straight value call here as I make the game a virtual coin flip. Therefore with the Tigers the road chalk, I'm backing the White Sox to get the win.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis is slumping and needs a big series in LA to put some breathing room for themselves in the wildcard. St. Louis has 14 game winner Lynn on the mound which gives them hope for Thursday. Lynn pitched well in his sole start at the Dodgers going six innings allowing four runs, but the Cardinals lost 6-5 late. Look for Lynn and the Cardinals to get their revenge as Beckett continues to struggle and the Cardinals take advantage in a big way. Play St. Louis

Charlie ScottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Chicago Bears +5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I got the Bears as a LIVE Dog Tonight ! Chicago gets the edge in defense, running game, and Special Teams. In Green Bay's loss in the Playoffs to the NYG last season they got physically dominated on offense & defense and last week vs the Niners the same strategy. So in a copy cat league like the NFL, What do You think the Bears game plan will be ? The Bears can play physical, plus now have weapons on offense. The Wiseguy/sharps will be on the Bears Tonight, but wait to see if line moves to 6.5-7, on a very public Green Bay team Tonight.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago +6 over GREEN BAY
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It’s early but the Bears can really put the Packers in a hole here after Green Bay dropped its home opener while the Bears were expected easy winners over the Colts. The Packers remain at home after allowing the 49ers to visit with a defense that was actually bigger than the Packers offense.
The same could hold true here.
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Chicago ’s offense has lacked chemistry for years but reacquainting WR Brandon Marshall with QB Jay Cutler seems to have aligned the entire unit. Cutler looked very sharp against the Colts and while the Packers are certainly superior over Indy, their secondary may not be. That does not bode well for a Packers team that has glaring defensive issues. This series has been dominated by Green Bay for the last while but the Bears just may be the better team now. Combine that with a bunch of points being offered and this choice becomes a rather simple one.
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Rutgers +7½ over SOUTH FLORIDA
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It’s offense versus defense here. South Florida has racked up some crazy numbers in its two games this season but it came at the expense of Chattanooga and Nevada. Last week against Nevada, USF needed a furious rally to overcome a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter. That takes its toll and it also suggests how vulnerable the Bulls are. They will now take a huge step up in class against the defense of the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has given USF QB B.J. Daniels all kinds of trouble. In three games, Daniels is 1-2 with the win coming by a single point. He has completed fewer than half his passes, thrown for just three touchdowns while averaging just 176 yards of offense.
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Rutgers has also played two cupcakes in Tulane and Howard. They’ve only allowed 12 points total in the two games but the offense has struggled and is certainly a work in progress. Still, the Knights defense was heralded before the season began and they’ve lived up to expectations.
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Lastly, South Florida has a horrible record on these Thursday night ESPN prime timers. They are 0-7 in these games, including last year’s 44-17 loss to Pitt in the season’s opener. The Big East is wide open this season with five or six teams capable of winning the conference. These two are among them and frankly, this is a motivating and insulting number for every player on the Knights roster. In a game that could go either way, we’ll gladly fade the overvalued Bulls.
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BOSTON +133 over N.Y. Yankees
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The Yanks tied the series up 1-1 last night with a 5-4 win over Aaron Cook. The Red Sox had lost nine of Cook’s previous 10 starts by scores of 10-9, 20-2, 7-3, 9-2 and 7-5 among others. It’s rather disturbing that New York couldn’t do some serious damage against Cook, as they held on for a one-run win.
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The Yanks continue to struggle and will now have to rely on Phil Hughes. Fenway Park has been a house of horrors for Hughes, where in nine career appearances, he’s 2-4 with a 8.26 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 28.1 IP. Throw in an overall 32%/49% groundball/fly-ball rate and some downright awful numbers against righties and it’s no mystery as to why Hughes is so beatable and so risky when laying odds at this venue.
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Felix Doubront is also a risk, not because of his skills but because he’s already exceeded his previous career high in innings pitched of 128 he set back in 2008. The major differences between Doubront's inspired first-half (3.65 xERA) and forgetful second-half (4.40 xERA) has been an increase in his walks plus a drop in strand % from 72% to 66%. On the whole, Doubront has displayed skills worth watching next season including 136 K’s in 135 innings to go along with a groundball bias profile. While others ignore Doubront and his ugly 5.21 ERA, we’ll fade a much uglier Hughes and his awful record at this park against this motivated host.

MLB Predictions

Texas Rangers -1.5 -105

Tonight gives us another good opportunity taking Texas on the run line, as they enter tonight's game winners of 2 straight vs Cleveland with 5-2 and 6-4 victories. The Rangers are 85-57 on the season and 45-25 at home. Cleveland is losers of 5 straight games and they are one of the worst teams in baseball right now as their record has dropped to 59-84 (27-47 on the road). Tonight's starter for Cleveland is Zach McAllister who is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .265 opponents batting average. He has fallen off along with this whole Cleveland team, going 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 6 August starts and 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in his first two September starts. He pitched at home against the Rangers September 2nd where he gave up 11 hits and 7 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. Texas has Derek Holland taking the rubber tonight and he is 10-6 on the season with a 4.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .233 opponents batting average. He is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts, which includes a start vs Cleveland where he went 7 innings giving up 2 earned runs. McAllister and Holland's recent starts vs these opposing teams actually came against each other, where Texas won 8-3 (and I think we can see a similar out come tonight). The Cleveland Indians are an awful 12-40 in their last 52 games overall after being in a divisional race. They are also 13-38 in their last 51 road games, 16-35 in their last 51 games following a loss, 0-5 in McAllister's last 5 starts, and 1-8 in their last 9 games vs left handed starters. The Rangers are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 as favorites of -201 or more, and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a home favorite of -201 or more. They are also 5-1 in Holland's last 6 starts, and 13-3 in his last 16 starts when he has had 5 days of rest. Texas is 12-2 in their last 14 meetings in Texas, 23-6 in their last 29 meetings overall, and 5-0 in Holland's last 5 starts vs the Indians. Take Texas on the run line tonight as they should win by a handful of runs here again tonight.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland / Anaheim Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brett Anderson, who has been spectacular since returning from the DL, takes the mound for the A's in the series finale against the Angels. Anderson has given up just two runs in 26 innings in his four starts. Usually, control is one of the last things to come back after a lengthy layoff, but Anderson has struck out 19 and walked just three. Jered Weaver takes the mound at home for the Angels and he has been brilliant at home. To go along with his no hitter earlier this season at Angel Stadium, Weaver has made 12 starts and has a 2.62 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a .180 batting average against. Weaver has missed some time recently dealing with a biceps issue and he will want to atone for the time he's missed with a strong effort in this game.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies -134
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An improbable run by the Philadelphia Phillies has pulled them within three games of the second NL wild card after being on pace to miss the playoffs just a few months ago. Helped by a favorable schedule, the Phillies will face a third straight division cellar dweller as they open a four-game series against the Houston Astros on Thursday night.
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After looking like it was out of postseason contention with a 37-51 record July 13, Philadelphia (72-71) has made an amazing comeback. Led by their pitching staff, the Phillies have won a season-high seven straight and 15 of 19. Philadelphia moved within three games of St. Louis for the second wild-card spot with a 3-1 win over Miami on Wednesday to complete the three-game sweep.
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The Houston Astros are just two defeats shy of a 100-loss season. I cannot see this team being able to stop the momentum that the Phillies have right now. That's especially the case with Lucas Harrell on the mound, who is 10-9 with a 3.83 ERA this season. Tyler Cloyd will be making his fourth career start, including his second on the road. Cloyd's first road start was a gem, as he allowed just one earned run and four base runners over 7 innings of a 4-2 win at Cincinnati.
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This play falls into a system that is 38-9 (80.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games. The Astros are 13-55 in their last 68 overall. Bet the Phillies Thursday.