SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City -106 over MINNESOTA
There are some also-rans that are just playing out the string and there are some that are giving their all as we close out the 2012 season. We get an example of both here. The Twins have just nine wins since Aug 8, covering 32 games. They are 59-84 on the year and after a very frustrating and slow start and playing catch-up all season long, they appear to be running on fumes.
The Royals continue to play well. They’ve won four of five and nine of 15. That includes taking two of three from the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox in the previous series and sweeping the Tigers at the end of August.
Liam Hendricks has not won a game yet in his short career. He’s 0-7 this year, 0-9 all time and it’s not due to bad luck. Hendricks has a career ERA of 6.19, a disturbing career WHIP of 1.64 and a just as disturbing BAA of .324. This year, his numbers are similar (6.20 ERA – 1.69 WHIP -.328 BAA). A 26% line-drive rate doesn’t help either. Luis Mendoza has a 52% groundball rate, which also bodes well here, as the Twinkies batters lead the league in groundball outs. A warm Royals team against a guy that has been a MLB punching bag gets the call.
Ray Monohan
St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis will return Lance Lynn to the starting rotation for an injured Jake Westbrook on Thursday night for Game 1 of this extended four-game weekend set. The right-hander was banished to the bullpen in late August after a couple of rough starts but comes into this matchup with an overall record of 14-7 and a 4.04 ERA. Josh Beckett is slated to be on the mound for Los Angeles. He is 6-13 with a 5.05 ERA overall after spending most of the season in Boston, but has given-up a combined eight earned runs in his last three starts for the Dodgers. The right-hander is 2-2 against St. Louis with an ERA of 5.11. The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last eight games on the road and 0-4 in their last four games in LA. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last seven games against the NL Central.
Andre Gomes
Athletics / Angels Over 7.5
Oakland is 3-0 on this series and they'll be trying to sweep the Angels on the road today. They'll start Anderson who has great numbers with four wins in four starts, while having 0.69 ERA, 2.10 FIP and 2.78 xFIP. However, there are some things that need to be said about these four starts. He had always 5 days rest between the games, but this time he has just 4 days and he will be playing an early game, so basically he had 3 days and a half of rest since his last start. Since he comes from throwing a season high of 108 pitches, I believe this will be a tough spot for him. His four opponents were Seattle, Boston, Cleveland and Minnesota, teams who are ranked 25th, 20th, 30th and 22nd in OPS of the last 30 days. On the other hand, the Angels are 5th with .781 OPS, so they will clearly be the toughest start Anderson has already experienced this season and on a bad spot for him, I expect the Angels to expose Anderson today.
The Angels will start Weaver today, who is coming from a missing start due to a shoulder injury. He seems not to be at 100% right now and this should be a problem against a red hot Athletics offense, who is playing with a lot of confidence and who has a .762 OPS in the last 30 days. With both pitchers likely to struggle today against two in-form offenses, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -119
The Tigers have won 5 straight and 12 of their last 13 against the White Sox in games Verlander has started. He has held the Sox to 3 runs or fewer in 11 of those victories. Chicago's Sale has faced Detroit 3 times this season and is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.00 in those outings. Bet the Tigers.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City Royals -104
The Royals have won the first two games of the series convincingly, and I like their chances of notching the sweep tonight.
Minnesota's Liam Hendriks can't be trusted. He's 0-7 with an ERA of 6.20 in 12 starts this season. The Twins are 0-8 all-time in his home starts.
The Royals, meanwhile, are 5-1 in Luis Mendoza's last 6 starts, and he is 2-0 (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.79 in 3 starts versus the Twins this season.
We'll take the Royals showing value at this price given the advantage they have on the mound.
Jeff Alexander
Philadelphia Phillies -135
Taking the Phillies, who have won 7 in a row and 18 of 24, against the Astros, who have dropped 55 of 68 overall and 22 of 27 at home. The Phillies have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, including both of this season's matchups. Bet Philly on the money line.
Eric Williams
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are the correct pick in this contest after compiling an impressive 6-1 mark in their L/7 games against teams from the American League East and 5-1 in their last six road games overall.
The Mariners are 4-0 in Felix Hernandez’s L/4 starts against a team with a losing record and 9-2 in Hernandez’s L/11 starts as a road favorite.
The struggling Toronto Blue Jays are 1-6 in their L/7 home games and a dismal 2-5 in Henderson Alvarez’s last 7 starts.
With the Blue Jays also going just 2-8 in Alvarez’s last 10 home starts and the Mariners being 5-0 in the last five meetings against Toronto, I say the M's win and cash in again!
Scott Delaney
I'm looking to nail my third straight comp winner in as many days, on the heels of the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, and the Arizona Diamondbacks last night, as I'm going to play the Cleveland Indians plus a big price in Arlington, Texas, against the two-time American League defending champion Rangers. Make note I am insisting on you listing starting pitchers Zach McAllister and Derek Holland.
I know McAllister is in after struggling to put away the Minnesota Twins on Saturday, leading to the second-shortest outing of his season, but this is more about a revenge theory from a Sept. 2 meeting against Holland and the Rangers in Cleveland.
The hard-hitting Rangers lasted five innings, but was shelled for 11 hits and seven earned runs while walking two and striking out four.
Though the right-hander has had a rough month thus far, looking back over his last 10 starts, he has produced four quality starts, and has allowed three earned runs or less in six of those outings.
Now I know Holland has been one of Texas' more consistent hurlers this season, but it's not as if he can't be stunned tonight, against the disappointing Indians. The Texas southpaw is in after a no-decision against the Rays - a 3-1 loss for the Rangers in 11 innings. He's 10-6 on the year, yes; but he also has a 4.59 ERA this season.
I'm taking a shot here that McAllister is going to bring his best stuff tonight, in revenge, and will be able to hang with Holland. Take the road pup.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick winner for tonight is going to be the Los Angeles Dodgers against the St. Louis Cardinals. And while I know L.A. has been struggling of late, so too have the defending World Series champion Redbirds, and I think this might be the perfect weekend series for the Dodgers to turn things around.
As the San Francisco Giants appear to be running away with the National League West, the National League's race for the second Wild Card comes into focus with the Dodgers and Cardinals playing four games at Chavez Ravine.
Barring a collapse by the Giants, and mighty surge by these Dodgers, both L.A. and the Cardinals appear to be the leading contenders to face the Atlanta Braves in a one-game Wild Card playoff next month, with the winner advancing to the Division Series.
Back in the rotation after being banished from it in late August, Lance Lynn steps in for Jake Westbrook, who has been shelved by an oblique injury. Lynn's last start came on Aug. 23, and it lasted a mere two innings, after he allowed six hits and four earned runs to the Reds.
I'd rather back a team sending a veteran like Josh Beckett, who kept the Dodgers in the game his last time out, against the Giants until Marco Scutaro's two-run, broken-bat single in the seventh inning. And why is that important? Because he had made it that far in a game just three times in his previous 11 starts, and twice since joining the Dodgers.
Beckett hasn't faced the Redbirds in seven seasons, since 2005, when he was a member of the then-Florida Marlins, and comes into this with a career 2-2 mark, with a 5.11 ERA in six career starts against St. Louis.
The Dodgers are 4-3 against St. Louis this season, and is on a 6-1 run against National League Central teams.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on South Florida in college football.
The Bulls went from a team that no one even gave a second look, to an undefeated team that just came from way behind to beat a very good Nevada team that beat Cal the week before.
It's a short week for both teams, but South Florida didn't have to travel this week... Rutgers did. And they're traveling after playing a high school team (Howard).
The Knights haven't played a "real" game but find themselves bragging about being 2-0 with the nation's second-best run defense.
Woopie!!
First of all, their competition has been a joke and not worthy of bragging about any stats yet. Secondly, they are playing a team that is built on its passing game. Plus, B.J. Daniels is a mobile QB and that's something the Knights haven't seen yet.
Historically, however, the Rutgers defense has been successful in confusing USF’s offense, especially Daniels. Having said that... this will be the fourth year he's faced them and I'm quite certain they will have a few tricks up their sleeves. Especially since Rutgers is breaking in a new coach and a new defense.
This game will start defensive, but in the end I don't believe Rutgers has the athletes on defense to keep South Florida out of the end zone.
Take the Bulls as your free play of the day.
3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Rutgers Scarlet Knights plus the points as they play at South Florida tonight in the Big East opener for both schools.
We have lost some line value with the Knights, as they opened as the double-digit underdog, but that is OK, I believe this line is right where it needs to be as my feeling is South Florida will be a little flat both physically and mentally tonight in Tampa.
Skip Holtz' team had to go deep into the well over the weekend, coming back from a 31-20 deficit in the games final three minutes in Reno, as they defeated the Nevada Wolf Pack 32-31.
That game was played at over 4,000 feet of elevation, and played in in the pacific time-zone. There has to be some residual effects felt from that game somewhere down the line tonight.
Rutgers is off to a 2-0 start for new coach Kyle Flood. The Scarlet Knights just shut out Howard 26-0, and they do have the know how to stop Bulls QB Daniels whom they limited to just 160 yards passing last season in a 20-17 underdog win.
The Knights in fact have been the Bulls "bugaboo", as Rutgers is 4-1 straight up the past five series meetings, going 5-0 against the spread. They are also 8-4-1 against the spread as the road dog since the 2007 season, and are catching just enough tonight in what I feel is a game that will be decided by no more than four points either way.
Go with the visitors.
4♦ RUTGERS
Matt Rivers
14-9 free play run after the Reds held on for the win last night.
Tonight, going to lay it on the road with the Yankees as they close their three game set with Boston.
The Yankees held on for the 5-4 win last night, and it looks like the bats of Curtis Granderson along with Nick Swisher may finally be awake once again.
New York is tied with Baltimore for first in the East, and they will know full well what the situation is come game time tonight as Tampa Bay and Baltimore is an early afternoon start from Camden Yards.
The Yankees have not won back-to-back games in a month, but with seven wins their last nine games played at Fenway Park, I would say the chances they do just that are better than average.
Boston has not lost 12 of their last 14 games, and starter Felix Doubront is the not-so-proud owner of a 10.50 ERA the last three times he has made the start.
Phil Hughes stopped a five game road losing streak with a win his last trip to the hill in Baltimore, and he did beat Boston the last time he faced them in the middle of August with seven innings of work under his belt and four runs allowed - none of those runs earned by the way.
Yankees get the win they so desperately need.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Wunderdog
New York Yankees at Boston
Pick: Boston +130
The Yankees once held a commanding 10-game lead in the AL East, but it has since vanished. They have not won two straight games since August 15th, and this team is falling fast since the All-Star break. Tonight it will be Phil Hughes, but his road record is not very convincing at 4-8 with a 4.86 ERA. Hughes has been bitten by the long ball as he has served up 33 round trippers on the season already, and hitter-friendly Fenway Park will present quite a challenge here tonight. Felix Doubront has silenced the struggling Yankees lineup in two starts this season, allowing just 2 runs in 12.1 innings against them. The Yankees are now just 1-10 following a win, and just 3-9 behind Hughes as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Doubront has led Boston to a 7-0 mark when closing out a series game three. Play on Boston.