Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 15,2011

Steve Merril

White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Over 9

The Royals and White Sox take the field on Thursday night for the first of four games in Kansas City. Jeff Francis takes the mound for KC. He's given up nine runs and 18 hits in his last two starts against light hitting Seattle and Cleveland. Francis faced the White Sox three times this season allowing 10 runs and 25 hits in just over 15 innings. Adam Dunn (4-15), Paul Konerko (6-13), Brent Lillibridge (4-6), Juan Pierre (16-36), Alexei Ramirez (2-7) and Omar Vizquel (7-24) all hit Francis well. Chicago has scored four runs or more in seven of their last 10 games as they try to resemble the form people expected in the preseason. The Royals’ bullpen has struggled as of late putting up an ERA over 5.00 in the past week. Chicago’s Mark Buehrle is also struggling as of late. The veteran southpaw has allowed 23 runs in his last five outings with the team losing four of them. He's faced the Royals three times this season allowing 10 runs and 20 hits in 19 innings. Buehrle has had some interesting games in Kansas City, allowing at least three runs in three of his last four outings there. Billy Butler (18-53), Melky Cabrera (13-23), Alcides Escobar (3-8), Alex Gordon (7-25), Jason Kendall (9-26), Mitch Maier (9-30) and Brayan Pena (5-13) all hit the White Sox starter well. Kansas City has scored at least four runs in their last four home games. The White Sox’ bullpen has been terrible as of late posting an ERA over 7.00 in their last four games which should lead to a high-scoring game tonight.

Jim Feist

Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Florida Marlins G2

Anibal Sanchez has quietly put together a brilliant stretch, with a 0.86 ERA his last three starts fanning 21 in 21 innings. Sanchez tossed nine scoreless innings and was the winning pitcher Saturday against the Pirates. He allowed just one hit while walking three and striking out 11. Sanchez has not allowed an earned run over his last two starts (15 innings) and has 16 strikeouts over those starts. The win brings his record to 8-7 on the season to accompany a 3.64 ERA, 184 strikeouts and 56 walks. A great spot for the big dog with a red-hot, under the radar starter. Play the Marlins.

Freddy Wills

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Hellickson has been on fire with a 2-1 record and a 1.05 WHIP and 2.57 ERA over his last 3 starts. He goes into the big series with the Red Sox down just 4 games with plenty of confidence and success vs. Boston. Hellickson has 3 starts and he's been decent in every single one of them giving up just 14 hits in 18.1 innings pitched for a 3.93 ERA and that might be good enough as the Red Sox send an inexperienced rookie to the mound that the Rays saw in his last start and beat up.

Kyle Weiland takes the mound that's how beat up the Red Sox rotation is right now and it does not get any easier. Their bullpen is a real issue and with Weiland unable to go too deep into games the 25 year old has a lot of pressure on his shoulders especially after he struggled vs. the Rays on the 10th when he went 4 innings giving up 9 base runners and 3 ER. His main issue is his control his walks per 9 innings continues to increase as he steps up in competition as he had a 3.86 BB/9 ratio in AAA this year and 4.50 over his first 3 starts in the majors. Rays are a very patient team ranked 6th in the majors in walks I don't think he'll get deep into the game meaning trouble for the Red Sox who have a 6.47 ERA from their bullpen over the last 10 games. Rays are scoring 6.47 runs per 9 vs. RHP right now and are among the best hitting road teams as they are ranked 4th with a .744 OPS in road games. Also note that Hellickson has held Ellsbury/Pedroia/Ortiz to just 6 hits in 24 at bats all of them going 2-8.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee had his scoreless innings streak snapped at 30 2/3 innings in his last start on Sunday in a 3-2 win over the Brewers. Lee allowed just one earned run in seven innings for work. Lee is gearing up for the playoffs and over his last three starts is 2-0 with an ERA of just 0.36. With a 16-7 record and 2.44 ERA for the season Lee is making a run at the National League Cy Young award with his teammate Roy Halliday and the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw as his only competition. I look for another solid outing from Lee in this game. In 26 career innings of work against Florida, Lee is 2-0 with an ERA of just 2.77. The Phillies lineup should be able to provide Lee with all of the run support that he will need against the Marlins starting pitcher Alex Sanabia who is making his first start of the season. Florida is only 7-19 in the last twenty six meetings between these two teams and I don't see them improving on that record in this game. Play Philadelphia on the run line in game two of the double header.

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Mississippi State +3 over LSU: Yes LSU has put up a ton of points this year, but they have averaged just 336 ypg so far. QB Jarrett Lee had a good showing vs FCS foe Northwestern State, but vs Oregon he was just 10-22 for 98 yards and now he's a bit hobbled with an ankle injury and too make matters even worse, he will be without top WR Russell Sheppard again due to suspension. Steve Kragthorpe was brought in to help a passing attack that put up just 156 ypg last year, but so far they have averaged just 161 ypg. Not much improvement there. Yes the Tigers do have one of the better defenses in the nation, but they will have their hands full with a Bulldog offense that has rolled up 588 ypg this year, including 321 ypg on the ground. LSU is 2-0 on they year but were lucky in the Oregon game and had an FCS foe last week, while Mississippi State really outplayed Auburn last week and were just inches from tying that game late. LSU has won 11 in a row vs the Bulldogs, but Dan Mullen has his team playing well and will pull the upset in Starkville tonight.

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

We have been big fans of Ryan Vogelsong this season as he has been simply outstanding. He has a 2.66 ERA which is sixth in the National League but he has only 10 wins on the season and four of the five pitchers that are ahead of him in ERA have at least 13 wins, three of them with at least 16. The problem is run support as he is getting none. He has gotten a total of four runs over his last five starts and to no surprise the Giants are 0-5 in those games despite him allowing three runs or fewer each time. He has been awesome against Colorado this season but this is his first ever start at Coors Field. The Rockies counter with Jhoulys Chacin who has been on and off as his command has let him down. The walks have been piling up but he has avoided trouble for the most part as he still possesses a solid 3.64 ERA on the season including a 3.54 ERA at home. He has been a solid pitcher under the lights as he has a 3.11 ERA in 18 nighttime starts with 11 of those resulting in quality performances. The Giants have given Vogelsong no run support as mentioned and Chacin will keep that going as in four career starts against San Francisco, he has allowed only six earned runs for a 2.00 ERA. 3* Colorado Rockies

Rocketman

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is 4 games behind Boston and this series is the best way for them to make up ground as they are running out of town. Boston is only 3-10 in all games this September. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 7 games overall. Boston has lost 6 of their last 7 games overall. Jeremy Hellickson has been solid all year. Hellickson is 12-10 with a 2.96 ERA overall this year, 6-5 with a 3.62 ERA on the road this season and has a 2.57 ERA his last 3 starts. Kyle Weiland is 0-1 with a 6.76 in games this year, 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in all starts and has a 13.50 ERA at home this season. Tampa Bay is 4-1 at Boston this year. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!

Steve Janus

Colorado Rockies -128

I really like the Rockies to take down the Giants in the series opener tonight. The Rockies have won three of four and are in great shape to put an end to the Giants four game winning streak. Colorado is 14-9 at home against the Giants over the last three seasons and I believe they have a clear edge on the mound.

The Rockies will start Jhoulys Chacin against Ryan Vogelsong. Both starters have pitched effectively this season and against the opposing team. However, this will be Vogelsong's first start at Colorado. He has clearly been a better home pitcher this season. He has a 2.74 ERA on the season, but a 3.36 ERA on the road. He is also 0-3 with a 3.54 ERA in his last three starts. Chacin is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts against the Giants.

Colorado is 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 4-1 in Chacin's last 5 starts vs. National League West.

Bryan Power

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Red Sox are struggling mightily right now. They have lost 10 of 13 in the month of September, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays last weekend at Tropicana Field. Overall, they are just 5-9 vs. Tampa Bay this season, including a stunning 1-4 here at Fenway Park. While they are batting .290 against all other teams, against the Rays the Boston bats are hitting a collective .177 while scoring just 43 times in 14 games. Jeremy Hellickson is having in a fine year for Tampa Bay w/ a 2.96 ERA in 26 starts and is 2-1 this year vs. the Red Sox. Boston starts Kyle Weiland, who has yet to taste victory w/ a 7.71 ERA in 3 starts. The Red Sox are only 14-26 revenging a loss as a road favorite. The Rays are 18-8 off BB losses this season. Looks like good value on the visitors here.

SPORTS WAGERS

MISSISSIPPI ST +4½/+145 over LSU

We see a take-back of +4½ at Sportsinteraction and with that, we’ll split this one up with a unit on both the points and the money line. This is a defining moment for the Bulldogs, as they play in the toughest conference in the nation and they haven’t faired too well. Mississippi State is 2-9 against the SEC West under coach Mullen, and both wins came against rival Ole Miss. In almost any other conference, the Bulldogs would be a strong contender for a BCS bowl berth. Mississippi State ranked 15th in the final Associated Press poll last year. That would have placed the Bulldogs fourth in the Big Ten, third in the Pac-10 or Big 12, and first in the Big East or ACC. Instead, the Bulldogs finished fifth in their own division. They may not be more talented than LSU but it’s damn close and the Bulldogs have the better ability to finish off drives. Mississippi State has a much more potent offense that's capable of moving the ball and driving the length of the field. The Bulldogs have scored 74 percent of their points this season on drives started on their own side of the field and they played Auburn last week. They lost but they were efficient offensively. Defensively, the Bulldogs have been spectacular in limiting long drives from their opponents. Through two games, Mississippi State's defense has faced 26 possessions that started on the opponent's side of the field and only five of those drives crossed midfield. On 12 drives that began at or inside the opponent's 20-yard line, Mississippi State has allowed only 10 points. The Tigers are 2-0 after beating Oregon and Northwestern State. LSU had eight drives start in its own territory against the Ducks, and only one of those drives crossed midfield. The Tigers scored 27 points on drives that started in the opponent's territory in the game, and added another six points on a special-teams score and as a result, the final score was somewhat misleading. For the Bulldogs, the blueprint for victory is clear: win the battle for field position and they’ll win this game and don’t think it can’t happen. Play: Mississippi St +4½ (Risking 1.15 units to win 1) Play: Mississippi St +145 (Risking 1 unit).

Florida +146 over PHILADELPHIA Game 1

2:30 PM EST. The Phillies were the first team to clinch a playoff spot last night in Houston. It was inevitable but it’s still a satisfying accomplishment and a letdown in this inconvenient DH is a distinct possibility. The first game features a matchup that heavily favors the Marlins. Anibal Sanchez has some elite skills that include a high strikeout rate of 184 k’s in 180 IP. Sanchez is coming off a one-hit shutout, with 11 K/3 BB, and has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts. This guy is good. Kyle Kendricks is hit or miss with no in-between. He either gets whacked or throws a good game and that’s evidenced by his 38%/46% disaster/quality start split. Kendrick has 47 k’s and 30 walks in 101 innings. He doesn’t miss too many bats and relies heavily on his defense. There’s a good chance that Philly rests some regulars in the day game and at this price with Sanchez throwing against Kendricks, it’s worth a close look. Play: Florida +146 (Risking 2 units).

KANSAS CITY +102 over Chicago

The White Sox were put out of their misery a few days ago and instead of responding with a strong series against the Tigers, they were swept. It was capped off yesterday with a 6-5 loss in which Detroit scored three in the ninth and won it in the 10th. Chicago was outscored 25-9 in the three game sweep and Ozzie Guillen called it embarrassing. Paul Konerko admitted the team’s underachievement has finally taken a mental toll. Said Konerko, ”When you grind for seven months and kind of get to a point where you know you can’t get to where you want to get to it just happens. People are human. Everybody is going out trying to do a job. Unfortunately at this point that’s what it’s become, a job.” Now the South Side has to play some more baseball and that’s probably the last thing in the world they feel like doing right now. This is a mentally beaten down team whose season can’t end soon enough. The Royals have won four in a row and they’re still playing hard. This is a young and enthusiastic bunch that is having fun and know they’re on the verge of something good. The pitching matchup of Mark Buehrle against Jeff Francis favors nobody but in terms of desire, motivation, hitting and state of mind, give a huge edge to the host. Chicago favored is incorrect. Play: Kansas City +102 (Risking 2 units).

OAKLAND +109 over Detroit

The Tigers have won 12 in a row and it’s usually not a good idea to wager against sizzling hot clubs but this is a good spot for the A’s. Detroit just finished off the White Sox in style and now sit 13½ games in front in the AL Central. It’s over and the Tigers, much like the Phillies, have to be feeling a strong sense of accomplishment and rather smug right now. Max Scherzer has not enjoyed the consistent dominance that he flashed late last season. The true cause has been some acute struggles against LH bats and the A’s are predominately a left-handed batting line-up. Brandon McCarthy is on his game right now. McCarthy has walked just 23 batters all year in 149 IP. Over his last five starts he has posted a 2.70 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP while walking seven and striking out 34 in 37 innings. The A’s have beaten the Tigers in three of the last four meetings and they’re in a good spot to beat them again with their ace going. Play: Oakland +109 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -127

Vogelsong has been pure fade material lately. He's lost each of his last 5 starts with those losses all coming by at least 2 runs. It's also been wise to turn your back on the G-Men in the first game of a series. That's because they are just 3-13 in their last 16 series openers. The Rockies have quietly won 8 of their last 11 at home, and they are 7-1 in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Under manager Tracy, Colorado is an amazing 71-38 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. We'll take the Rockies.

Brandon Lee

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are showing unbelievable value tonight. Chicago will start Randy Wells, who has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last month and a half. Wells is 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA in eight starts since the beginning of August and is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts. Wells is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA in his career against the Reds, and will be extra motivated to pitch well after struggling in his last start at home against Cincinnati. The Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 4-0 in Wells' last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Jack Jones

Chicago Cubs +141

Randy Wells has been a consistent bright spot for the Chicago Cubs for more than a month. The right-hander looks to win a sixth straight decision and help the Cubs salvage a split of their four-game road set with the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday night.

Wells (7-4, 4.73 ERA) was 2-4 with a 6.16 ERA in his first 12 starts, which were interrupted by a stint on the disabled list because of a right forearm strain. Since the beginning of August, however, he's 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA in eight starts, and he's allowed four runs in 28 2/3 innings while going 3-0 in his last four outings - all Cubs wins.

Wells is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in eight career starts against Cincinnati. Homer Bailey hasn't had nearly the same success as Wells against his opposition. Bailey is 2-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.962 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.

In a battle between two teams with nothing to play for down the stretch, I like siding with the underdog as there's clearly value to be had. The Cubs are 6-0 in Wells' last 6 starts as an underdog. Chicago is 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 4 of a series. Roll with the Cubs Thursday.

Nelly

San Francisco + over Colorado

Ryan Vogelsong has delivered an amazingly consistent year even though he has now taken five consecutive losses. His season ERA is just 2.66 and only twice all season has he allowed more than three earned runs in a start. Vogelsong has been better at home but his road numbers are still excellent including a 3.28 ERA and a 4-1 record. San Francisco has little chance to catch Arizona in the NL West but the Giants have won four consecutive games to make a run at it and the offense has seen improved results of late. Colorado continues to be one of the most disappointing teams in baseball and the Rockies are 4-7 vs. San Francisco this season. Colorado is only two games above .500 at home this season and the Rockies are a tough team to trust in the favorite role. Jhoulys Chacin has fallen off a strong early season pace and has allowed three or more runs in seen of his last ten starts. His walk numbers can be an issue and Colorado is just 3-7 in his last ten starts including 2-5 in his last seven home starts. The Giants should own the bullpen edge and while it is a long shot San Francisco is playing with the urgency of a playoff race, although it has taken them a bit too long to get to that level.