Rob Vinciletti
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds fit a solid but complicated system that plays on home favorites at -140 or higher off a home favored win by 5 or more runs at -140 or higher with no errors, vs an opponent off a road dog +140 or higher loss by 5+ runs scoring 2 or less with 5+ hits and 5+ men left on base also with no errors. These home teams have cashed 33 of 42 times. The Reds have taken 6 of 8 here vs the Cubs and have a pitching edge with Bailey on the mound. Bailey is 6-2 vs the Division this season and has pitched much better at night winning 6 of 9. R. Wells for the Cubs allowed 6 runs in 7 innings in an earlier start vs the Reds and has a 4.76 road era. Take the Reds here tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox +100
Motivated by being swept at Tampa Bay last week, look for the Red Sox to bounce back strong against the Rays in this series. The Rays are only 1-5 in Hellickson's last 6 road starts and 26-57 in their last 83 meetings in Boston. Also, plays on home teams out to avenge a 3 game sweep, provided they are off an upset loss to a division rival, are 32-8 the last 5 seasons. We'll bet Boston.
Carlo Campanella
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -4½
Cincinnati comes off an opening week victory while Denver lost at home on Monday night football, but Denver played much better football. Denver lost to Oakland 23-20, but QB Orton completed 24 of 46 passes for 272 yards. He should have no trouble finding open receivers against a Bengals' defense that trailed until the 4th quarter against a Browns offense that was clearly still learning their new west coast offensive system. Denver is 7-2 SU during the last nine meetings in this series and benefit from back-to-back home games while the Bengals' rookie QB Dalton must start his career playing two consecutive road games. Denver held the quick Raiders offense to just 289 total offensive yards and are a solid unit that will confuse this rookie QB Dalton.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +141
The Cubs are showing value at this price with Wells on the hill. They've won each of his last 6 starts, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of those outings. The Reds, meanwhile, have lost 3 of Bailey's last 4 starts. Also, the Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, and the Reds are 1-10 in their last 11 in the 4th game of a series. Take the Cubs.
Black Widow
1* on San Francisco Giants +122
The San Francisco Giants get the call Thursday as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. San Francisco is still alive in the NL West race, and until they are eliminated they aren't going to pack it in. That has been evident of late as the Giants have won four straight games. They send arguably their best starter to the mound in Ryan Vogelson tonight. Vogelsong is 10-7 with a 2.74 ERA in 25 starts this season. He should not be an underdog against Jhoulys Chacin, who is 11-11 with a 3.64 ERA in 28 starts this year for Colorado. Vogelsong is 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA and 0.488 WHIP in two starts versus the Rockies this season, allowing just one earned run and seven base runners in 14 1/3 innings. We'll back Vogelson every time at this price. Take the Giants on the Money Line.
O.C. Dooley
Cleveland Indians +215
This evening Cleveland will be attempting to avoid being officially eliminated from the postseason chase. It seems like an eternity since the Indians shocked most baseball observers by winning 20 of the initial 28 outings but a myriad of injuries to key veterans (Sizemore, Choo, Hafner) proved to me too much for the club to overcome. Even though a bit too late Cleveland will be getting back starting outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from an oblique injury that caused him to be sidelined for a better part of 3 weeks. The last two weeks of the season are actually important for Choo statistically as he has only 8 homers and 36 RBI for the entire campaign, after being a major impact player in 2010. It is easy to see why the oddsmakers cast Texas as a home favorite this they are a sensational 10-1 in the season series against Cleveland. In the past couple of nights the Rangers have outscored the Indians by a combined 19-5 count. But considering that Texas is starting a pitcher whose ERA dating back to the All Star break is near the SIX mark, one has to wonder why Texas has been cast as an enormous favorite. It seems like an eternity since Alexi Ogando was a member of the American League All-Star roster as the converted reliever has faded radically as his overall innings pitched count has gone up. Here is a 62-PERCENT SYSTEM (42-26 past five years) which plays AGAINST home teams like Texas after three consecutive contests where the offense has put 8+ runs on the scoreboard each time. For the entire season to date Texas has a LOSING record (5-10 at home) after winning three times in the prior 4 outings