Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 16,2010

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Twins close out their huge three games series with the White Sox in Chicago this evening when they sned Carl Pavano to the mound against Mark Beuhrle. Pavano brings steady numbers into tonight's contest with 5-2 marks in his last seven overall team starts and in his last seven starts during September. He is also 5-3 in his career team starts against the Pale Hose. With Minny a mighty 12-4 in its last 16 games against southpaws, look for the Twins to come out on top tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5* graded play on the Twins as they take on the White Sox set to start at 8:05 EST. Much like the Phillies have done in the NL East, the Twins are lighting up the Jets and running way with the AL Central. The Twins lead the White Sox by seven games with 20 games left. They have played so well of late that they are just 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees for best record in baseball. Now, that is really flying under the radar. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Twins will win this game. Carl Pavano will take the ball and he has been quite good all season long. he sports a 3.47 ERA and a 1.137 WHIP in 29 starts; 3.13 ERA and a 1.052 WHIP in 16 road starts; 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP over his last three games. CWS starter Buehrle has not won a decision since August 25 a stretch of four starts. In those three starts he allowed 25 hits spanning just 20 innings of work. Twins bullpen has been fantastic posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.267 WHIP spanning 392 1/3 innings of work. They have posted a 2.97 ERA and a 1.168 WHIP in 200 1/2 innings on the road; 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP over the past seven games. Twins are a solid 14-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game in the second half of this season.

VEGAS EXPERTSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
After evening up their series with the Dodgers last night 2-1, look for the Giants to make it two straight over their division rivals. Starter Jonathan Sanchez has a 14-5 team start record in night games this season and over his last three starts has posted a nice 0.45 ERA. His counterpart Ted Lilly is in opposite form as LA has lost each of his three prior starts thanks in large part to a 6.35 ERA. Lay the price.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play on: San Francisco

BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
A lackluster St. Louis Cardinal offense that recently had a stretch of six games where they scored a total of eight runs, has started to show some life of late, as they went through a seven-game stretch where they scored a much more reasonable 38 runs. They sort of fell back to their old ways however in their three games against the Cubs, getting swept by scores of 5-1, 7-2, and 7-3. It's do or die time now with the Reds leading the division by seven games and a possible wild-card berth looking less likely every day. Good news then that the Cubs are leaving town and the San Diego Padres are coming in for a four game series. Sure, the Padres are a playoff team and Chicago is not, but the Cards have dominated this squad lately, taking 61 of the last 84 meetings and 31 of the last 39 in St. Louis. Righthander Jake Westbrook was surprisingly wild in his last start, walking five batters for only the third time this season, and it was the first time he's walked more than two since he's been with the Cards. We'll give him a mulligan on that start and expect him to bounce back strong however, as two days before that game in Atlanta, Westbrook's wife had given birth to a baby girl. Take the Cardinals.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Dodgers have a reliable veteran starter in lefty Ted Lilly going up against a light hitting San Francisco attack, ranked 9th in the NL in runs and 11th in on base percentage. He's 3-1 against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Dodgers love facing starter Jonathan Sanchez, who is 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA against LA, making the visiting dog very live. Play the LA Dodgers.

EZWINNERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco Giants -133
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Giants starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez has been up and down this year and his issue has always been dealing with control issues. Over his last eleven starts Sanchez has been pretty solid posting a 3-2 record with a ERA of 3.10. The Dodgers starting pitcher Ted Lilly had been lights out when he first arrived in Los Angeles in a trade with the Cubs, but he has come back down to Earth in his recent starts. Lilly has lost two out of his last three starts and his ERA is close to four in that span. That is more of the norm for Lilly and I expect the Giants to be able to give Sanchez enough run support to pick up the win in this game. The Dodgers have struggled on the road against good teams as they are only 9-25 in their last thirty four road games against a team with a winning record and LA has lost seven out of the last nine meetings between these two teams. Play on San Francisco.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
STL (-120) vs SDP
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The 82-63 Padres just cant shake the bad mojo they have going right now! The Padres have not fared well in St Louis 74-70 as the have not won there since late August 2007. The Padres hurler is going to get bombed tonight, try these stats on for size: T Stauffer sports a 0-3 and a 10.13 ERA in St. Louis. The Cards are the sharp side tonight from RZ's camp. Power Ratings @ St Louie - 144 is all we need to crack the bases code tonight..

Insider Angles

Cincinnati vs. NC State
Pick: NC State -1.5

The North Carolina State Wolfpack are coming off of a nice road win at Central Florida while the Cincinnati Bearcats failed their only test vs. FBS competition, so NC State gets the call at home at a cheap price here.

Yes, the Bearcats won 40-7 last week, but that came at home vs. an FCS school in Indiana State out of the Missouri Valley Football Conference. In their only game vs. a real school, Cincinnati lost to Fresno State 28-14 on opening week while mustering only 234 yards of offense and allowing eight sacks. They only managed a total of 15 rushing yards in that game, and although quarterback Zach Collaros passed for 219 yards, he averaged only 5.3 yards per attempt.

Besides their offensive line problems, the Cincinnati defensive line couldn’t apply any pressure vs. Fresno State ether, which is not surprising since the line returns just one starter from last year. The secondary was also suspect entering the year, so with that combination, it was not surprising that Fresno quarterback Ryan Colburn threw for 247 yards and four touchdowns while averaging a whopping 10.3 yards per attempt.

Well, NC State quarterback Russell Wilson may have had a rough game vs. a good UCF defense last week, but remember that he passed for over 3000 yards last year while accounting for 35 touchdowns passing and rushing combined, so he will appreciate facing a bad Cincinnati defense here. Also, the Wolfpack defense, while young, has loads of upside and is off to a great start, and the NC State defensive line could wreak havoc on the Bearcats’ offensive line.

That defense won the game last Saturday for State, and considering that their offense should perform better this week, a repeat performance by the defense should result in a much easier win than many people expect.

Bobby Maxwell

San Diego at ST. LOUIS (-110)

I'm now on an 8-4 run with my FREE selections with an easy winner coming tonight on the Cardinals as they host a Padres' squad that has been horrible in September.

If you're looking for a huge college football winner, look no further than my 500-Unit play in the Cincinnati-N.C. State contest tonight. I delivered a 700-Unit college football winner Saturday and I'm picking up right where I left off with that one.

For my comp selection, the reeling Padres have to make the trek from Colorado where they were blasted Wednesday afternoon to St. Louis to face a team they haven’t beaten in Busch Stadium since August 7, 2007. That all sounds like a pretty tough task for a team that has been playing its worst baseball of the season. I’ll go with the Cardinals to get tonight’s game thanks to the pitching of Jake Westbrook (1-3, 3.78 ERA).

St. Louis has beaten San Diego nine straight times inside Busch Stadium and the Cardinals are 31-8 against the Padres the last 39 times they’ve met in St. Louis. They are also 61-23 in the last 84 meetings against the Padres played anywhere.

The Cardinals are also on surges of 52-23 in series openers, 17-7 against winning teams and 6-1 against the National League West. San Diego has been ugly lately, on slides of 6-13 overall, 3-9 against right-handed starters and 4-9 against teams with winning records.

San Diego’s Tim Stauffer will be making his third start in a row and fourth of the season in this one, and the guy has delivered the last two outings, going a total of 10 innings, allowing one run in wins over the Dodgers and Giants. He shut out the Giants on three hits for six innings on Saturday for a 1-0 victory. He has three previous starts against St. Louis, two coming last year, including a 7-4 loss in St. Louis when he gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings.

Jake Westbrook is on the hill for the Cardinals tonight, making his ninth start since coming over from the Tribe. Even though the Cards have dropped four of his last five starts, he’s pitching well, giving up three runs or less in seven of his eight starts for St. Louis. If he keeps up that consistency, he’ll beat the Padres tonight.

San Diego struggles with the bats, so if Westbrook can keep them quiet, he’ll hand the Cards an easy winner here tonight. Play St. Louis.

2♦ ST. LOUIS

Joel Tyson

San Diego (+115) at ST. LOUIS

With last night's 2-0 premium play sweep, I have now won 6 of the last 7 days!

I am coming strong tonight with my 30 Dime Thursday Night Game of the Year. This play is just as strong as my 30 Dime Pac 10 Game of the Year on Stanford over UCLA on Saturday, and just as strong as my 30 Dime Monday Night Game of the Year on Baltimore outright over the Jets.

As for Thursday's comp play, going to look for San Diego to add another loss to the Cardinals season tally tonight.

The Cardinals continue to slide, as they were just swept by the Cubs at Busch Stadium, and have now lost 7 of their last 9 overall.

The Padres did a good job by taking 2 of 3 at red-hot Colorado to maintain a slim lead in the NL West, and starter Tim Stauffer was the man his last trip to the hill, tossing 6 scoreless innings in a win over San Francisco.

Jake Westbrook has been a bust for the Cardinals, and is 0-3 the last 5 times he has taken the mound.

The Padres have won 2 of the 3 season series meetings this year, and with so much at stake for Diego, look for them to take care of business against a St. Louis team that has packed it in for the year.

San Diego delivers!

4♦ SAN DIEGO

Karl Garret

Los Angeles at SAN FRANCISCO (-135)

The G-Man is bringing the heat!

10-2 the last 7 days. 6 of the 7 days on the plus side, +159 dimes of net profit in the last 7 days alone!

How about a 30 Dime Stone Cold Lock Winner # 3 in a Row on line tonight?

As for your Thursday night comp play winner, I will ride the Giants to keep the heat on in both the NL West, and the Wild Card chase, as San Francisco closes out their series with Los Angeles with the win.

The Giants have won 8 of their last 11 games, and they have also won 6 of the last 8 series meetings against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers have dropped 12 of their last 17 overall, and are just playing out the string.

It will be Lilly against Sanchez, and Lilly sports an 0-2 record over his last 3 starts with an ERA over 6, while Sanchez has turned it up a notch, going 1-0 with a 0.45 ERA his last 3 trips to the hill. That includes 7 scoreless innings against the Dodgers 2 starts ago, striking out 9 while picking up the victory.

The Giants are feeling it right now, so back them as the home fave.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Craig Davis

Minnesota at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105)

Today's free play is on the Chicago White Sox over Minnesota. I know it's not a popular pick, but the White Sox still have some gas left in the tank and this game is their only chance to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. If they lose this one, they might as well pack it in for 2010.

The Sox have lost six of their last eight have struggled at the plate recently like no other time this season.

They'll turn to Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99 ERA) to stop the bleeding. Buehrle didn't get a decision in his last start... a 4-3 win over Kansas City Friday. The good news is, however, that Chicago has won each of Buehrle's last 3 starts and are 16-5 with him on the mounds since mid-May. He limited the Twins to just five hits over seven innings in his last outing against them and is 8-3 with a 3.32 ERA in his last 11 home starts against the Twins.

Minnesota counters with Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47 ERA) who allowed two runs and six hits in a complete-game 2-0 loss on Friday against Cleveland. He's also just 1-4 with a 4.38 ERA over his last five starts. I'll take my chances with the White Sox as your free play of the day.

2♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Stephen Nover

Minnesota (-115) at CHICAGO

I am on a 68-49-2 run with my free baseball selections after cashing with the Cubs on the run line last night.

Before I get to the analysis, be sure you check out my 15-Dime winner in College Football tonight, as I'm breaking down the Cincinnati-NC State game for you!

Today's baseball menu is short, but I found the Minnesota Twins worth backing, they are tonight's free play.

This is the final game of a three-game series between the Twins and White Sox. The Twins have won the first two games by identical 9-3 scores effectively knocking the White Sox out of the race.

Minnesota is now a bulging eight games up on the demoralized White Sox in the AL Central. I don't see the White Sox regrouping against the hottest team in baseball.

The Twins are 41-16 since the All-Star break, the best record in baseball. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games. Chicago has lost six of its last eight.

The pitchers are Carl Pavano (16-11 with a 3.47 ERA) versus Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99 ERA), which is a fairly even matchup. But considering how hot the Twins have been going, it's not a difficult decision to ride them.

2♦ MINNESOTA

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco starter Jonathan Sanchez is 18-11 in his 29 starts this year. The Giants are 35-16 their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 6-0 with Sanchez vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 8-3 their last 11 games overall and they are 17-7 vs. a team with a losing record. Dodger starter Ted Lilly has been on the losing side in his last 3 starts. Lilly has allowed 12 runs in his last 17 innings of work. Los Angeles is 2-6 their last 8 games vs. the Giants. The Dodgers are 6-20 their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record.