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San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: San Diego Padres
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San Diego is coming off a loss on Wednesday against the Rockies which decreased its lead in the National League West to just a half-game. It was still a significant series win for the Padres which have stumbled since the end of August when their division lead was 6.5 games over the Giants as of August 25th. San Diego remains a solid road team as it is 40-31 away from home on the season and with seven straight roadies upcoming, it must continue this success.
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The Cardinals have only won three series’ since the beginning of August with two of those coming against the Reds. Too bad St. Louis cannot play Cincinnati everyday apparently. The season is all but done now after the Cardinals were swept at home by the lowly Cubs with their three top starters all getting hit hard. St. Louis now trails the Reds by eight games in the National League Central and it is 7.5 games back in the Wild Card standings as well.
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San Diego gets a very favorable price based on the pitching matchup.
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The Cardinals send Jake Westbrook to the mound and while he has been pitching well, he is not winning and the team is not winning. He has a solid 3.78 ERA on the season in his eight starts with St. Louis but the team is just 2-6 in those games and this comes against only two teams still in the playoff chase. Run support has been a big issue as St. Louis has scored three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. After the Cubs shut them down, it is hard to see the Cardinals having any success here.
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Pitching has been the strength of the Padres all season and it continues from an unlikely source. Tim Stauffer, a long reliever making just his third start of the season, allowed three hits in six innings in a 1-0 win over the Giants. He has pitched solid all season as he has a 1.54 ERA covering 58.1 innings and San Diego is going to continue to give him a look in the rotation. In 14 starts a season ago, he posted a 3.58 ERA so the success is no fluke. 3* San Diego Padres
BRETT ATKINS
Cincinnati’s offense is sputtering this season through two games. This team got spoiled the last few seasons with Tony Pike at the helm, leading the Bearcats to Top-10 offensive numbers and fighting for the Big East title.
This season, the Bearcats are 95th in the nation in total offense and QB Zach Collaros has managed just 349 yards passing in an opening loss at Fresno and a sluggish win at home against Indiana State. After getting blanked in the second half against Fresno, the Bearcats led just 12-7 at halftime at home against Indiana State before putting up 28 third-quarter points.
Now they have to go up against the Wolf Pack defense that is allowing just 248 yards a game through two wins. That defense carried them to a win over Central Florida last week, winning 28-21 as three-point road underdogs. They actually led 28-7 before UCF rallied to make it close.
Also, the Bearcats have Oklahoma coming to Cincinnati next week, so are all eyes on N.C. State? I like the Wolf Pack defense to carry them to the win here tonight. Lay the small chalk with N.C. State tonight!
2♦ N.C. STATE
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Dodgers at Giants
Prediction: Over
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While Ted Lilly is a respectable 8-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, he is struggling with an 0-2 mark with a 6.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last three starts. Lilly tends to struggle against San Francisco with his 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings of work over his career. And Lilly has not been as effective when pitching on the road this season given his 3.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He faces off against Jonathan Sanchez who is 10-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Sanchez also struggles against the Dodgers as he has a 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings of work in his career against Los Angeles. Sanchez also has a 3.64 ERA at home as opposed to his 2.94 ERA when on the road this season. With a Total set at a very low 6.5/7, the Over offers nice value relative to these two starting pitchers.
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Angels at Indians
Play: Under 8
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The ‘under’ is now 23-9 in the last 32 head-to-head meetings between the Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Indians including 6-0 in the last six meetings this year, and we are looking for that pattern to continue Thursday night.
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The bookmakers have installed a total of 8 for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -120.
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In fact, none of those last six meetings have exceeded even seven total runs scored. These are two teams that have been eliminated from the pennant race and appear to just be going through the motions, and that has shown in their recent offensive performances, with each club hitting an identically putrid .213 over the last 10 games, with the Angels batting .209 vs. right-handers and the Indians batting .210 against them.
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That should make things easier for both right-handed starters today, who are each in fine current form anyway.
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Fausto Carmona was the All-Star representative for Cleveland this year, and he would have a much better record than his 12-14 if he pitched for a team that scored some runs, as he has a fine 3.86 ERA for the year. He has also maintained his fine form, posting a miniscule 1.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his last three starts despite going 1-2 in those outings. Carmona has also allowed three earned runs or less in all three of his career starts vs. the Angels, all in the last two years.
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Meanwhile, Halos starter Ervin Santana has managed to go 16-9 on the year despite his team collapsing around him. Like Carmona, Santana has also maintained his form, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last three outings. Santana has posted Quality Starts in each if his last five career starts vs. Cleveland, the most recent of which came this season in a 4-3 Angel victory.
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These two clubs will probably struggle to reach seven runs combined this time around though.
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Pittsburgh +1.81 over MY METSTHESPREAD.COM
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Both teams are playing for absolutely nothing but the Pirates are in jeopardy of posting the worst road record in major-league history. Pittsburgh has lost an embarrassing 58 out of 73 games on the road and that’s hard to believe but it’s true. They need three more road wins to avoid being called the worst team ever and this is a winnable game. Charlie Morton’s surface stats are actually too ugly to print but to give you an idea, he’s 0-7 on the road with an ERA of 11.37. What happened to Morton is anyone’s guess because he showed some good promise when he was with the Braves and he’s just 26-years-old. Having said that, he’s coming off a good start in Cincinnati in which he went 6.1 innings and allowed just six hits and three runs. He’s now allowed just five earned runs over his last two starts after management switched catchers from Ryan Doumit to Chris Snyder after Morton consistently shook off Doumit's signs to throw fastballs. You can expect Snyder to be behind the plate again for this one. Additionally, Morton, despite his awful numbers has a 48% groundball rate and that with a rate that high, it suggests he’s been about as unlucky as one could possibly be. Almost every ball hit has somehow found a hole. That’s not to say Morton is going to breeze because a ton of balls have been hit hard off him and a 1.92 WHIP is real ugly. However, perhaps something clicked with Snyder and there’s also a good chance the Mets will sit a couple of regulars tonight with the Braves coming in for a weekend series. They would like nothing more to make the Braves finish as miserable as their own season and could definitely be looking ahead. Furthermore, Mike Pelfrey should never ever be trusted as a big favorite. Pelfrey is coming off a gem against the Phillies but whenever he has a good game, luck plays a big role. That ERA (3.89) isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA (4.70) and the disparity between 1H (2.93) and 2H (5.63), it’s pretty clear that you’re taking a big chance laying almost 2-1 on him. Pelfrey has never been adept at keeping runners off bases. His 1.46 WHIP looks worse when we compare his 1H WHIP (1.29) to that of the 2H (1.72) and that’s a strong sign fatigue is settling in. Play: Pittsburgh +1.81 (Risking 2 units).
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LA Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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We were on the Angels last night as they blanked the Indians 7-0. Tonight should be a different story. Cleveland bullpen has a 3.54 ERA at home this year. Fausto Carmona has a 3.86 ERA overall this year and he has a 1.52 ERA his last 3 starts. Carmona has averaged right at 8 innings per start his last 3 games. Ervin Santana is 0-6 with a 5.71 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. Carmona has a 2.50 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
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3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +185
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Reasons the Pirates win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY METS) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, playing on Thursday. This is an 84-75 ML System hitting 52.8% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +68 units.
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2.) New York has nothing to play for, therefore they will find it hard to get motivated to play the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh will fight to avoid getting swept by the Mets, and they'll be up against a cold starting pitcher in Mike Pelfrey who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bet the Pirates on the road.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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Runs and hits have been scarce in the Dodgers and Giants series, as the two teams have split the first two games, scoring a total of four runs. The Dodgers offense has surprisingly contributed to them being a non-factor in the NL West race, ranking 12th in scoring in the senior circuit. Ted Lilly will start for L.A. and after a sensational beginning in A Dodger uniform, he has 6.35 ERA in last three starts and given up five home runs.
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If San Francisco grabs the lead over their bitter rivals, they will have a terrific chance for victory since their bullpen has 2.70 ERA at home and an 80 percent save ratio. (24 of 30)
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For Thursday, Play Against below average NL hitting teams with average of .255 or less, against an opponent with a very sharp bullpen (ERA of 3.33 or lower), with a starting pitcher whose gives up one or more dingers a start. In the past five years these teams are 23-70, 24.7 percent.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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Runs and hits have been scarce in the Dodgers and Giants series, as the two teams have split the first two games, scoring a total of four runs. The Dodgers offense has surprisingly contributed to them being a non-factor in the NL West race, ranking 12th in scoring in the senior circuit. Ted Lilly will start for L.A. and after a sensational beginning in A Dodger uniform, he has 6.35 ERA in last three starts and given up five home runs.
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If San Francisco grabs the lead over their bitter rivals, they will have a terrific chance for victory since their bullpen has 2.70 ERA at home and an 80 percent save ratio. (24 of 30)
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For Thursday, Play Against below average NL hitting teams with average of .255 or less, against an opponent with a very sharp bullpen (ERA of 3.33 or lower), with a starting pitcher whose gives up one or more dingers a start. In the past five years these teams are 23-70, 24.7 percent.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Because this is a huge rivalry between the Dodgers and Giants, there's no question that Los Angeles will come to play tonight. If there's one team L.A. would like to see not make the postseason, it would be San Francisco. Ted Lilly is quietly having a solid season, posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in 26 starts. In his last 2 starts vs. San Francisco, Lilly has allowed 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 15 innings.
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The Dodgers simply have Jonathan Sanchez's number. Sanchez is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. Los Angeles. These teams have split the first two games of this series, with each team winning by exactly one run. This bodes well for the Dodgers, who are 31-16 against the money line after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile, the Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Dodgers showing great value Thursday.
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1 Unit on LA Angels +107
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The Halos are showing solid value in the underdog role with Santana on the hill. He was won 3 in a row, 6 of his last 7 and 8 of his last 10 starts. Compare that to the Indians' Carmona, who has lost 6 of his last 7 starts. We certainly shouldn't be scared away from Santana when valued as an underdog. After all, the Angels are an impressive 17-5 in his last 22 starts as a barking dog. Meanwhile, the Indians are only 1-5 in Carmona's last 6 starts as a home favorite. My money is on Santana and the Halos here.
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1* on Padres/Cardinals OVER 7.5
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This is a very low total tonight considering we have two below-average starters taking the mound in Tim Stauffer and Jake Westbrook. Stauffer is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in 3 career starts against St. Louis. Westbrook is 7-10 with a 4.41 ERA this year. The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis between these teams. The OVER is 7-1 in Cards last 8 games overall, and 4-0 in the Padres last 4 games overall. The OVER is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take the OVER in this game.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Dodgers and Giants have played two games thus far in this series and each have scored a total of two runs. Pitching as dominated and as they head into this rubber match the edge is in favor of San Francisco. Ted Lilly won his first 5 starts in a Dodger uniform, but since has gone 0-2 in three starts and the Dodgers have lost each game including one to the Giants. San Francisco has Jonathan Sanchez on the mound who is a 10 game winner and beat LA in LA back on the 5th of this month. Look for Sanchez to once again shut down the Dodgers. Play San Francisco
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Cincinnati @ NC State
PICK: Over 54
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This total has been on its way down since opening at 55 points, and you can't really blame the public for backing the under based on the sluggish nature of these two offenses in the early going.
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But here's the thing; both teams are absolutely loaded with talent at the wide receiver position, both have capable, if not spectacular quarterbacks, and both struggle to defend the pass.
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It's a perfect recipe for a high-scoring game on Thursday night in Raleigh.
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Cincinnati got its offense going in the third quarter of last week's romp over Indiana State, scoring 28 points. The Bearcats have had some serious issues in pass protection in the early going, but here in Week 3, we should see some improvement.
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N.C. State's offense scored three first half touchdowns last week against a fairly talented UCF defense. They ultimately won that game despite QB Russell Wilson completing only 10-of-30 passes for 105 yards.
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The Wolfpack possess one of the most underrated wide receiving corps' in the entire nation. That's not to mention their standout TE George Bryan. As long as Wilson can get some protection, there's no reason he can't bomb away against a Cincinnati secondary that hasn't improved much since last year.
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Both teams are talking like they want to establish the run early in this game, but I don't think it's going to take long for them to realize that it's through the air where they'll find the most success.
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Let's not forget that the Wolfpack saw the over cash in 10 of their 12 games last season, with five of their six home games against FBS opponents totaling at least 55 points. Obviously Cincinnati was one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation in 2009, and while they've clearly taken a step back here in 2010, the potential for a breakout performance is still there. Take the over.
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Cincinnati/ NC State Under 54
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A couple of good trends kick off this play as Cincy is 1-8 Under on Thursdays, while NC State is 3-14 Under on Thursdays as well. Cincy games this year have averaged just 44.5 ppg, while NC State games have averged 52 ppg. Both offenses can be explosive. but it's the defenses that should steal the show tonight. The Pack is allowing just 248.5 ypg and 14 ppg thus far, while the Cincy defense has allowed just 275 ypg and 17.5 ppg. We also note that Cincy's offense did struggle a bit in their lone road game vs Fresno as they put up just 14 points and 234 yards of offense. Both teams seem to play it close to the vest on Thursday night's and with a couple of very solid defenses i feel that 54 is way to high a number here. look for a game in the lower 40's as this Under should win easily.