Wunderdog
Tulsa Shock @ Phoenix Mercury
Pick: Phoenix Mercury -6.5
Tulsa heads out on the road for this playoff series. You need defense this time of the season and Tulsa doesn't have it at #10 in the WNBA in points allowed, and second-worst in field goal shooting defense. The offense is fine, but would be better if they had Skylar Diggins, whose season-ending knee injury knocked the Shock for a loop. They face a Phoenix team that is 13-4 at home. Phoenix is used to winning, in the playoffs for the sixth time in the past seven seasons, and finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference, as well as third-best in the league. Brittney Griner averaged 8.1 rebounds and is a force in the low post. Phoenix won the WNBA title last year and is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven Conference Semifinals games. The Mercury are 10-1 straight-up against Tulsa at home since 2010. With the Tulsa Shock just 1-3-2 ATS in the last six meetings at Phoenix, grab the champs at home.
Vernon Croy
Denver at Kansas City
Play: Under 42
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I look for this to be a grind out type of game just like my free play on the Vikings/49ers Game Total Under 42 Monday. The O/U is a perfect 0-5 for the Chiefs in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, and the O/U is also 1-5 for the Broncos in their last 6 games after a win. The O/U is 1-7-1 in the last 9 games played between these two teams, and The O/U is 3-14 for the Chiefs in their last 17 games played in week 2 of the season. Look for the Chiefs defense to play lights out this week after giving up 396 total yards last week, and look for Denver's defense to be just as good as week 1 where they allowed just 13 points to an above-average Ravens offense. Denver had the ball for over 37 minutes against the Ravens but still only put up 19 points total, and although I do expect Denver's offense to put up bigger numbers this season, it will not happen in this game. Play the Under with confidence
DAVE COKIN
ASTROS VS RANGERS
PLAY: ASTROS -107
This has not been a good week for the Houston Astros. They’ve lost their grip on the top spot in the AL West to the spring Rangers. Their ace, Dallas Keuchel, got lit up on Wednesday night in what was the biggest game of the season to date for the Astros. Houston is on the verge of getting swept in a four-game series and they now have to be looking over their collective shoulders as far as the wild card playoff entry is concerned.
Enter Lance McCullers. The hard-throwing rookie righty will take the mound tonight against Colby Lewis and asking a first-year big leaguer to step up and be the stopper is a pretty big request. But I think it’s a task McCullers is up for.
McCullers has been more than impressive for the most part. He’s really only had a couple of truly bad starts and a handful of his efforts have been spectacular. This is a kid with some legit swing and miss stuff and when he’s commanding his pitches, McCullers is one tough hombre.
Lewis is off one of the best starts of his career. The veteran Texas righty threw a complete game, two-hit shutout gem last time out. But the prior three starts for Lewis were not good, so I think there’s a decent chance he bounces some here.
The tough deal here is trying to figure out just how rattled the Astros are at this point. That’s guesswork. I prefer to focus on the actual data, and from that standpoint, I give McCullers a clear advantage over Lewis. No question Lewis has been a nice plus for the Rangers, and the fact he has 15 wins is very impressive. But he’s still a guy who is very hittable and Lewis is not a guy who racks up the swings and misses, which is generally what beats the Astros.
Houston will not be a popular side tonight. The Rangers are on a roll and the betting public is going to be on that side tonight, particularly with the line being where it is. I’ll go the other way and will back the Astros to snap out of their funk, at least for one night.
Sleepyj
Kansas City +125
Royals coming off a loss and Ventura on the mound has me firing on this today...Ventura has been solid for a good time now..His last two outings he has given up 4ER in each game...So a bit of a slide in the wrong direction...I will still back him here today however...The Indians haven't seen Yordano since April...So it's been a good while..Ventura should be fine here and with revenge on the minds of the Royals makes them a solid wager at +125..This line may in fact get higher with Kluber on the hill today...Kluber is solid, but he has been up and down in recent games also...His last 3 games has netted him a total of 10ER...The longball is the area he is having trouble with...Kluber has been knocked around by this KC team 3 times this year...The last look at this lineup he actually pitched very well...I doubt he can duplicate his last performance here...Royals are looking to split the series here today....Indians have been good since the break and they are only 4 games back from the Wild Card....i would not rule them out, but it looks a bit tough however...Royals hold the best mark in the AL..I'm sure they would like to keep it that way for obvious reasons..They are two games ahead of the Bluejays for the AL overall lead....Royals are 3-7 the last 10....Indians are the opposite ate 7-3.....Ventura will come to play today and i like the spot here...Kluber is quality, but i trust the lineup for the Royals here..Give me a solid ace on the mound at a + price in a revenge game here.
Art Aronson
Toronto vs. Atlanta
Play: Over 8
The visitors hand the ball to Marco Estrada (12-8, 3.31 ERA) who went five innings vs. the Yanks on Saturday, giving up four runs off six hits, walking one and and striking out two in the no-decision; note that Estrada has been getting shelled of late, giving up 10 home runs over his last six outings. The home side counters with Matt Wisler (5-7, 5.60 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Wisler has been consistently inconsistent in the major leagues and has posted a horrible 4-5, 5.37 ERA in all "night" games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and with these two struggling starters colliding on Thursday night, the OVER does indeed become a viable investment opportunity.
Scott Spreitzer
Royals at Indians
Play: Under
The KC Royals have hit a snag at the plate. After scoring 22 runs combined in games against Baltimore on Sept 11 & 12, the Royals have managed just 8 runs in their last four games combined. I doubt they'll find the sweet elixir against Corey Kluber. The Cleveland hurler has been outstanding at home this season, posting a 2.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a .223 BAA. KC counters with Yordano Ventura, who after making a few strong starts, has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts, spanning just 11 IP. In fact, he allowed a whopping 24 base runners in those 11 innings, including 16 hits and eight walks. Ventura has made 11 road starts this season and has been tagged with an ERA north of 5.00. He's certainly not pitched like the "ace" Kansas City hoped he'd be before the season began. The Royals have won just three of their last 12 games, while the Indians have won seven of their last 10 and 14 of their last 20.
Rob Vinciletti
St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St Louis Cardinals -137
The Cardinals have won 20 of the last 28 in the series and will have John Lackey on the mound tonight. Lackey has won 4 of 5 vs the Brewers. He will take on Jimmy Nelson who has been subpar vs St. Louis going 0-3 with a 8.44 Era. The Brewers are just 2-9 as a home dogs from +125 to +150. Look for St. Louis to take the finale of the series here Tonight.
Big Al
Miami vs. Washington
Pick: Under
Marlins' RHP Jarred Cosart had one of the stranger health issues earlier this season when he missed significant time due to a right inner ear disorder that resulted in vertigo. After trying to come back earlier and still not being fully over the condition, Cosart now appears healthy and has had two starts in September with very good results. Overall, Cosart has allowed just one run in 9 2/3 innings in those two starts which were against Division Rivals New York and Washington, who he faces again tonight. This time it's on the road, and RHP Tanner Roark will be getting the start for the Nats at home and despite struggling a bit earlier in the season when called upon to make some spot starts, Roark has been fairly solid in two starts this month against the Braves and these Marlins. In fact it was Roark who faced Cosart in that game in Miami last Friday, a 2-0 Marlins victory. The runs have been a bit hard to come by when these two teams have met recently, as a total of just 35 men have crossed the plate in the last seven meetings. Not surprisingly, the under is 5-1-1 in those.
Jim Feist
Toronto at Atlanta
Pick: Over
Toronto is in town with the top offense in baseball, 18-7-1 over the total in the Blue Jays last 26 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. Marco Estrada has a better ERA at home and the over is 7-3 when he pitches on grass. The Over is also 34-16-3 when the Blue Jays play an interleague game vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is home and 25-12-4 over the total on natural grass. Matt Wisler (5-7, 5.60 ERA) has allowed opponents to hit .301 off him for the season and the Over is 6-2 in Wisler's last 8 starts overall. The Over is also 20-8-1 when the Braves face a right-handed starter and this shapes up as an offensive show.
Mr Vegas
Cubs at Pirates
Play: Under
A key late season game, which means both managers will go to their best bullpen arms if needed. A pair of quality starters are on the mound, as well. Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks is throwing well, allowing 3 runs or less in 6 of this last 8 starts. Pittsburgh goes with Charlie Morton, with the team 4-1 under the total his last five starts. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Morton's last 11 home starts.
Chip Chirimbes
Broncos at Chiefs
Play: Broncos
Four-time AFC West defending Champion Denver Broncos will have their work cut out for them as the play on the road against Kansas City in their home opener. The Chiefs were 4-0 during the preseason and opened with a convincing win at Houston on Sunday while the Broncos struggled offensively at home against the Ravens. The word is Peyton Manning has lost arm strength as he failed to throw the ball downfield against Baltimore throwing for only 175 yards and no TD passes. One problem for Kansas City is that they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Jeff Saad
Angels at Twins
Play: Twins
LA is a long way from home and has not had a good September. Hector Santiago is no ace, at 4-7 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. The Angels are 3-7 his last 10 starts, plus 7-19 in their last 26 road games. The Angels are 8-18 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record and head to Minnesota, ranked 12th in baseball in runs scored. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 home games. Tommy Milone (8-5) has had a fine campaign and the Twins are 5-2 in Milone's last 7 home starts.
Mike Lundin
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 +115
The Washington Nationals lost two of three at Miami Sept 11 - Sept 13 but followed that up by sweeping the Phillies over three games at Philadelphia outscoring their opponent 24-11. I like them to win big when facing the Fish again for the opener of a three-game set home at Nationals Park Thursday. Tanner Roark will take the ball for the Nats and he's allowed just three runs through 9 1/3 frames since replacing Joe Ross in the rotation. He's 2-0 with a save and a 3.64 ERA through 15 appearances, two starts, home at Nationals Park on the season. Jarred Cosart till take the ball for the Fish coming off five scoreless innings of a 2-1 home win against the Nats. He's posted an atrocious 8.46 ERA through five road starts on the year though and will have to face a red hot Bryce Harper who went 7-for-13 with four homers and seven RBI in the three-game series against the Phillies.
Notes
Miami has scored just 27 runs over its last six games.
Washington has won 26 of the last 35 head-to-head meetings at Nationals Park.
Washington is 5-1 in Roark's last six home starts.
Brandon Lee
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers +104
Texas is riding a red-hot 4-game winning streak, which includes 3 straight wins over the Astros in their huge 4-game series. I look for the Rangers to keep the momentum going and finish off the sweep of Houston tonight. Texas will give the ball to Colby Lewis, who flirted with perfection last time out, allowing just 2 hits with no walks in a complete game shutout. Houston will give the ball to Lance McCullers, who has been a great fade on the road. McCullers has a 4.93 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in 9 road starts, 8 of which the Astros have lost. To top it off, Lewis has owned Houston, going 8-1 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 11 starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Indians -125
This is a great price to back the Indians at home against the Royals. Cleveland has quietly put together a really strong run, as they are 17-8 over their last 25 games and now just 4-games out of a Wild Card spot. Kansas City on the other hand has lost their mojo. The Royals are a mere 3-9 in their last 12 games.
Hard to not like the Indians in this spot given the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland will send out Corey Kluber, who is coming in off two quality outings and has a sensational 2.80 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over 13 home starts. The Royals counter with Yordano Ventura, who is coming off a couple of poor outings and has a 5.15 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 11 road starts. In Kluber's last start against KC, he went the distance, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits. In Ventura's last start versus Cleveland, he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 1/3.
Royals only scored 1 run in yesterday's 5-1 loss and are just 7-15 on the season after they score 1 or fewer runs. Indians on the other hand are 23-12 in their last 35 after allowing 3 runs or less in 2 straight games, 13-3 in their last 16 home games and 27-12 in Kluber's last 39 home starts.