Vegas Butcher
Minnesota Twins -130 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Let’s compare Santiago’s last 5 home and away starts:
L5 home: 1.3 K/BB; 1.6 HR/9; 3.2 ERA
L5 away: 1.7 K/BB; 2.2 HR/9; 7.4 ERA
He hasn’t pitched well in either location, but has been lucky enough to maintain a lower ERA at home than on the road. Overall though he ranks as my 164th starting pitcher out of 164 (dead-last) over the last 30-days. His BB-rate of 17% is higher than his K-rate of 16%, he’s allowing almost 2 HR’s per 9 innings, and his SIERA of 6.3 is a full run higher than his 5.3 ERA during this time-frame. I have Santiago’s eERA (expected ERA) at 6.6 based on his performance over the last 30-days. By comparison I have Milone’s eERA of 3.6, a full 3 runs lower. Milone is pitching well right now keeping the ball on the ground (48% GB-rate), inducing a strong SwStr-rate of 10% (league average is about 7.5%), and keeping the ball in the park (0.6 HR/9). He’ll also be facing an Angels lineup that ranks 26th against lefties on the year and 29th overall offensively in the last month. By comparison, Twins are 15th against left-handers. I’ll take the BP’s out of this one as LA has a strong advantage there (Twins rank 28th and still don’t have their closer Perkins back) and will play this one for 1st 5 innings only.
SPORTS WAGERS
Denver +3 over KANSAS CITY
Interesting game for sure but one we are going to lay off for several reasons. What we know for certain is that the Chiefs went 4-0 in the preseason and the market responded by backing them heavily in their season opener in Houston. The Chiefs didn’t disappoint, as they built an early big lead and never looked back. The final score read 27-20 but the Texans got a late TD in garbage time to make it closer than it was. In other words, the Chiefs had little trouble taking down the Texans and return home to face a long-time nemesis. The Broncos swept the Chiefs last season by winning 29-16 in Kansas City and 24-17 at home.
Meanwhile, the Broncos squeaked out a win over the visiting Ravens but there was nothing encouraging about it. It only begged the question of how bad is the Broncos offense? More than any other week in the season, Week 2 is all about under and over-reactions because Week 1 is the first real observations we get of these teams in real time. Kansas City has a lot of market appeal right now after many of you cashed on them last week. By contrast, the Broncos have little but they are still the Broncos, they’re still considered to be an elite team (whether right or wrong) and they still have Peyton Manning. Manning has been written off numerous times in the past only to follow it up with a 300-yard, 4 TD game.
So, here’s what we don’t like about this game. Frankly, we’re not sure if the market is giving the Chiefs too much credit or the Broncos too much credit. Had this game been played last week, we’re pretty sure the Broncos would have come in as a 1 or 2-point favorite. Therefore, we’re not prepared to lay 3 points with them here. There is no question that the Chiefs deserve to be favored here based on what we all saw in Week 1 but the real question is whether it is warranted or not. We also don’t like the short week for traveling teams, which makes the Broncos a little less appealing. In summarizing, we’re not strong on either side so we’ll sit it out. Hold a gun to our head and we would take the Broncos. NO BETS
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +105 over TEXAS
We generally don’t like to bet against hot teams but Colby Lewis is a weak starter worth fading while Lance McCullers is pure quality. Lewis is coming off a complete game, two-hit shutout against the A’s but what follows a gem for ordinary pitchers is usually a blowup. Lewis has blown up in four of his last eight starts. In those four blowups, he allowed eight jacks. One of those blowups occurred against the Astros at this same park on August 3. The Rangers got Colby Lewis a "W" in exchange for six innings of seven-run work, a reward for gobbling up outs just effectively enough to avoid being sent to the showers for squandering a massive lead. Lewis gave up 10 hits and three homers, pounding the zone with stuff the Astros were all too happy to pound right back. Per the Play Index, the veteran righty is the first American League starter to get a win for six or fewer innings of 10-plus hit, seven-plus-earned-run, three-plus-homer work since Mike Mussina on May 19, 1996. Colby Lewis brings 88 mph heat, a weak 33% groundball rate and a 5.46 xERA since the All-Star break into this start. Those numbers weren’t much better before the break either.
Lance McCullers has looked like a blossoming ace since his recall from the minors with 9.4 K’s/9 a 48% groundball rate and an xERA of 3.44. Over his last four starts, McCullers has posted a 2.88 ERA with a BB/K split of 8/23 over 25 frames. While he'll need to throw more strikes to keep his walks down, his 94-mph fastball and solid 11% swing and miss rate confirms he has the stuff to be an impactful starter. We’ve seen McCullers dominate before. Remember, he’s just 21 years old so there is going to be some growing pains but there is no denying the talent. McCullers attacks with a bulldog mentality. With a great fastball in the 94-97 mph range and slider that often leaves knees either buckled or broken, there are times we have watched him with an open jaw. Personally speaking, I have come away thoroughly impressed by this first-rounder on many occasions this year and his recent trip to the minors to work on some mechanical issues appears to have served him well. No chance are we passing up an opportunity to back McCullers at a price against Colby Lewis.
Miami +165 over WASHINGTON
The Nationals have won four in a row and scored 29 times over that span. Uh, that’s really nice but those four wins came against the following four starters: Brad Hand, Aaron Nola, David Buchanan and Alec Asher. The latter three wins came in Philadelphia against a reeling Phillies squad. The Nationals last four wins mean nothing and now their worst spot starter, Tanner Roark is priced like Max Scherzer. Roark has worked primarily out of the bullpen this year. That's the same pen that has blown about 50 games so far. Roark has made 36 appearances this season but only eight have come as a starter. Of those eight starts, two have been of the quality variety. We’re really not interested in spotting a massive price with a starter that’s good 25% of the time. Roark brings a 4.38 ERA into this game but there are even more reasons to fade him. For one, he has a troubling fly-ball trend. He also has a very lucky 85% strand rate as a starter. He has just 55 K’s in 88 frames, which is extremely low for a reliever. Throw in a 1.36 WHIP (1.71 as a starter) against the hot Marlins and the fade against Washington has even more appeal. Certainly, this price is out of whack.
The market is not giving Jarred Cosart much credit here and we can understand why. Cosart has made just 10 starts this year and brings a 4.58 ERA into this start. However, he just returned from the DL after suffering from vertigo for a couple of months. Cosart was placed on the disabled list in May. He was activated in June and optioned to the minors soon thereafter, where he's rehabbed at a slow and low pace, understandable given that he had to sync his eyes and ears. Cosart is feeling great now and comes in underpriced. After being traded to Miami last year at the deadline, Cosart posted a 1.64 ERA in August. In two starts since being summoned, Coasrt has been brilliant with eight K’s over 9.2 innings and surrendering just one run. It’s a small sample size but a 57%/16%/27% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split completes a small sample size profile that says Cosart may be really good. Miami won again last night to run its current record to 11-4 over their past 15 games. Certainly, they’re worth another bet here.
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals -142
The St. Louis Cardinals went through a rough patch over the last two weeks to allow the Pittsburgh Pirates some hope. But once the Pirates got within 2.5 games of the NL Central lead, the Cardinals kicked it into high gear. They have won three straight games coming in and I look for them to make it four in a row today. They play a Milwaukee team that has packed it in, losing five straight and seven of the last eight overall. John Lackey is 11-9 with a 2.89 ERA in 29 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Jimmy Nelson, who is 11-12 with a 4.00 ERA in 29 starts. Nelson has allowed 9 earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts as well. Nelson has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in four lifetime starts against them.
ASA
Orioles at Rays
Play: Over 8
Matt Moore looked like one of the top pitching prospects in baseball when he emerged late in the season in 2011. After solid but unspectacular results in two full seasons Moore has now made just 10 starts the past two seasons with mostly disastrous results this season. Moore’s next quality start will be his first since 2013 and he has allowed four or more runs in all but two outings while never pitching more than five innings to bring his ERA to 8.42 with no improvement after sitting out most of August. Moore is supported by a Rays lineup that is batting .287 with over five runs scored per game vs. right-handed pitching over the last 10 games. It has been a tough season for Chris Tillman and after he seemed to be back on track to start the second half of the season with a few promising starts, he has regressed again with 21 runs allowed over his last four games. Tillman owns a 1.62 WHIP with a 5.79 ERA on the road this season and just over two weeks ago the Rays scored seven runs on Tillman in Baltimore. While the Orioles have been a big disappointment this season they have won six of the last eight games and Baltimore has scored at least five runs in six of the last nine games. The ‘over’ hit in all three games in the last series between these teams and both bullpens have had some issues of late particularly on Baltimore’s side.
Brad Wilton
Quick week for both the visiting Broncos and the host Chiefs, and rather than look at the side in this one, I think the better play is the total, and that is to look Under the total.
Peyton Manning has seen Father Time catch up with him, and last week he did not throw a touchdown pass in the Broncos 19-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens. If Week One is any indication, the calling card for Denver this season will be the revamped defense that Wade Phillips has installed, and tonight it will be that defense that keeps this game close and low-scoring.
These teams meet twice a year, and despite the potent Denver offense which tended to produce plenty of points and plenty of Overs, this series did stay Under in both meetings last year, and is 7-1-1 Under the last 9 times the teams have played since 2010.
Short week gives the defenses the edge in my estimation. Broncos-Chief Under the total.
4* DENVER-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Washington Nationals Run Line over the Miami Marlins, who arrive for a four-game weekend series after playing in New York to start their week. I know the Marlins have won two in a row, but the Nationals are suddenly playing well, have won four straight and believe they can chase down the Mets.
Now that being said, it doesn't hurt to mention the pitchers who will be on your ticket. The Marlins are handing the ball to Jarred Cosart, while the Nationals are giving the nod to Tanner Roark.
Let's start with Cosart. I know he has been impressive since returning from an ear disorder, and has allowed one run in 9 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts in two no-decisions. But I also know he is 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA this season. And in his last seven trips to the mound, he is 0-3 with a 6.47 ERA.
Meanwhile, Roark allowed two runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings in his last start, but it was a 2-0 loss to the Marlins. I think he'll be out to get the win in a major way tonight, as in he'll be looking for a complete game. In the month of September, he's looking for his first win, as he's 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA.
I'm going to play the Nationals, and look for them to roll big on the Run Line.
3* WASHINGTON -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Rangers over the Astros one more time for good measure.
Houston...we have a problem!
The Astros have been booted out of 1st place in the A.L. West, and they have the look of a team that does not know how to stop the slide.
Last night their "ace" Dallas Keuchel was smoked in the first inning, as Texas ran away with a 14-3 win to increase their division lead to 1 1/2 games.
The Astros are now 2-7 on their road trip, and are tied with the Orioles for the worst road record in the American League at 29-45.
The Rangers have now won 9 of their last 10 at home, and they have won the last 6 series meetings with their division-rivals.
Lance McCullers will oppose Colby Lewis, and McCullers is off a loss to the Angels, and the last time he started in Arlington, the Rangers roughed him up but good.
Lewis owns 15 wins on the season, and right now momentum is residing in the Texas dugout.
Houston continues their tail spin.
Back the Rangers.
3* TEXAS
Scott Delaney
Last night my 20 Dimer was on the Texas Rangers. Tonight I want you to play them as my complimentary winner.
The Rangers have overtaken the Houston Astros in the American League West, and it's time to keep the momentum going. How big has this series been? Some are saying it's the biggest showdown in state history. I don't know about all that, given the number of times the Spurs and Mavericks have played in the NBA, but it's certainly the biggest clash of this series, since Houston joined the American League.
The Rangers are 36-21 in the second half of the season, after last night's 14-3 win, and tonight they're coming into this one having won four straight. In the first two games of this series, the Rangers have put up 25 runs. And they're seemingly taking full advantage of the Astros' road futility. Houston is 29-45 on the road (worst in the AL).
Now I'm not listing pitchers tonight, as the Rangers are getting contributions everywhere, and will continue to shine tonight. The value is playing the home team in this one.
4* TEXAS
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Angels at TWINS (-115)
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - The Angels head to Minneapolis for a meeting with the Minnesota Twins, and I'm going to lay the home chalk in this battle of playoff hopefuls.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this game is the travel factor. As the Twins closed a home series with the Detroit Tigers yesterday, the Halos arrived after a series in Seattle, which ended late last night. I am betting the Angels will be a bit weary tonight. Tonight marks the Angels' seventh game in as many days, including their fourth straight on the road.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - The Angels are 5 back in the American League West, and 3.5 games behind in the A.L. Wild Card race. And after last night's 3-1 loss in Seattle, the Halos are a dismal 29-41 on the road, second-worst road mark on the junior circuit. The Twins might be 10 back of the front-running Kansas City Royals, in the A.L. Central, but they're also 1.5 back in the Wild Card race.
1* TWINS
Harry Bondi
LOUISVILLE (+5.5) over Clemson
Clemson is one of the worst road favorites in college football. Tigers were 0-3 as road chalk last year and are 3-7 their last 10 in that role. Clemson feasted on a pair of lightweights to open the season but step up in class against a Louisville squad that is excited to get back on the field after self destructing against Houston last week. Cardinals had 4 turnovers, a blocked field goal and a kickoff returned for a touchdown against them. Bobby Petrino might not know how to ride a motorcycle with his mistress on the back, but he is a good football coach and he has never coached a team that has started the season 0-3 at any level of coaching. He'll have the Cardinals ready to fly tonight take the points with the home team Louisville for another FREE Winner.
Bob Balfe
Twins -130
This is crunch time for both teams. Minnesota was great at home all year and great against left handed starting pitching all year. The Angels have been awful against left handed pitching and awful on the road. This Angels team has not been hitting the ball well and nothing leads us to believe they are going to start tonight. This is a good spot for Minnesota. Take the Twins
Dave Essler
Minnesota -115
We know from experience the Twins are better against left handed pitching, and at home where they are (heading into Wednesday) 43-27 and they're also still fighting to play into October. I was reticent to fade the fact that Milone has seen these guys when he was with the A's, but honestly, it's more the role players that had some success against him. He has only allowed two balls to leave the park since the end of July, and comes in off a horrid outing against Chicago. However, that was a 10 day turnaround to where the White Sox had seen him last, and in the first meeting he three-hit them and shut them out through 7 innings, so that's to be expected. The Twins pen has been stellar, producing a 1.57 ERA over the last week. Conversely, when Santiago is done he's got perhaps one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him, and a team that played late in Seattle and traveled. Santiago is over valued on what he DID, not what he is DOING. Here's the rub - he's pitched well at home, but on the road he's 4-7 with an ERA pf 4.09 (almost a full 1.5 runs worse than at home). He's a flyball pitcher who's given up a dozen HR's at home and away, but in 20 less innings on the road. He was 0-4 in August with a 6.21 ERA - September looks better, but in two HOME games. He hasn't faced the Twins this season, but his three years splits against Minnesota look like this - 32 hits allowed in 23 innings, a .320 batting average against with four jacks, and it's worse than that at Target Field. Even the leadoff hitter (usually) Aaron Hicks is 2-5(off of Santiago), with both of those hits going over the fence. Maybe they'll even stick Nunez in a game since he's got two bombs off of Hector. Mauer has hit himm reasonable in a dozen at bats with only on K, and Mauer is just not that quick against LHP anymore. I'd have released this sooner, but was waiting to make sure they'd play Thursday so no pitching change I am also playing the over, knowing that it's highly unlikely that the Twins won't get to four.
Vegas Butcher
Denver Broncos +3
In the last 2 years since Manning joined Denver the spreads in the games vs KC were the following: -7.5 @ DEN, -5 @ KC, -13 @ DEN, -1 @ KC. The early line back in May had the Broncos once again at -1 for this game, yet today’s number is 4 points off. The question is why? The Chiefs looked good against the Texans, but let’s not forget that Houston is a team that was led by Hoyer, one of the worst QB’s in the league, and anchored by Alfred Blue in their run-game, one of the worst runners in the league. Hoyer committed two big TO’s that helped set up Chiefs’ scores, and a blown coverage allowed another one via Kelce’s 42 yard TD. Denver’s D is a much tougher test especially after the way they looked in week 1. They were constantly pressuring Flacco and Denver’s stud CB’s (Talib and Harris) might be the best duo in the league. The return of TJ Ward from a suspension will only make this D tougher. I don’t expect the Chiefs to have as easy of a time moving the ball in this one.
On the other side you have a Chiefs D that allowed 4.7 YPC to Alfred Blue last week, 4.7 to Jonathan Grimes, and 4.4 to Chris Polk, all below-replacement level players. CJ Anderson and Hillman are much more effective players and I expect them to have more success here. KC ranked 25th in runD last year and doesn’t look like they’ll be much better this season. In addition, let’s not forget that Chiefs will once again be without their top CB Sean Smith (3 game suspension). Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should have a much easier time due to this and I expect their success to open up the run-game for the Broncos as well.
Bottom line is that I still believe the Broncos are a better team. Even with diminished effectiveness, Manning is a way better QB than Alex Smith, a guy that is afraid to throw more than 5 yards downfield. Broncos have a stronger defense, better QB, and skill position players that are just as good if not better than KC’s. Remember those 4 previous meetings for which I’ve posted spreads above? Well Denver won them all by an average margin of 9.3 points per game (none by fewer than 7 points). Today they are actually getting 3 points and I see a lot of value on them at this number.