SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(14) Georgia Tech (2-0, 0-1 ATS) at (20) Miami, Fla. (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Hurricanes return to the field for the first time since their thrilling Labor Day victory at Florida State as they host Georgia Tech in an ACC Coastal Division showdown at LandShark Stadium.
Miami held off the Seminoles 38-34 as a six-point underdog on Sept. 7, surviving when Florida State’s fourth-and-goal pass in the end zone barely fell incomplete as time expired. QB Jacory Harris, battling through an arm injury sustained in the second half, had a solid game, going 21-for-34 for 386 yards with two TDs and two INTs. The Hurricanes, who had lost their final three games of 2008 (1-2 ATS), rolled up 476 yards on offense, but the defense surrendered 403 (109 rushing).
Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead in the first 20 minutes of last Thursday’s game against Clemson, then gave up 27 unanswered points before rallying with two late-fourth-quarter field goals to pull out a 30-27 victory. The Yellow Jackets, who failed to cover as a five-point home favorite, had 418 yards (301 rushing), but they went just 3-for-14 on third down, and the defense surrendered 386 yards (261 passing).
Georgia Tech ran roughshod over Miami in last year’s 41-23 rout as a three-point home favorite, gashing the Hurricanes for 472 rushing yards on 56 carries (8.4 yards per rush) as the Jackets raced out to a 41-10 fourth-quarter lead. One bright spot for Miami was Harris, who came off the bench and went 13-for-18 for 162 yards with two fourth-quarter TD passes (and one INT).
Going back to 2005, Georgia Tech has won four straight in this rivalry both SU and ATS, including a pair of narrow victories in South Beach (14-10 as a 19-point underdog in 2005 and 17-14 as a two-point pup in 2007). The winner has gotten the cash in all six meetings this decade, with the visitor going 4-2 SU and ATS.
The Yellow Jackets have now failed to cover in five of their last seven marquee Thursday matchups, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five after a SU victory. On the bright side, Georgia Tech is on positive ATS runs of 6-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 12-4-1 as a road underdog), 4-1 in September, 15-6 after a non-cover and 8-2 when catching between 3½ and 10 points on the highway.
Despite the upset victory at Florida State, Miami sports nothing but negative ATS trends, including 13-32-1 at home, 20-43-1 as a favorite, 10-31-1 as a home chalk, 1-10 when laying 3½ to 10 points, 8-18-1 in ACC action, 8-23 after a spread-cover and 3-13 after a bye week.
Georgia Tech topped the total in last week’s win over Clemson, but the team is still on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 27-10-1 as an underdog, 19-7 as a road pup and 15-6 on Thursday. Similarly, the ‘Canes carry “under” streaks of 37-18-1 at home, 9-3 on Thursday, 4-1 against winning teams and 12-4 after an ATS triumph. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (86-59) at Boston (86-58)
Josh Beckett (15-6, 3.82 ERA) gets the ball for the Red Sox, who go for a three-game series sweep of the Angels, who will counter with Ervin Santana (7-8, 5.52) at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox improved to 7-0 on their current homestand with last night’s 8-7, come-from-behind victory, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth to win it. Boston has built up a 6½-game lead on Texas in the wild-card race, and Terry Francona’s club enters tonight on positive streaks of 51-19 at Fenway Park, 37-16 on Thursday, 21-8 versus right-handed starters and 5-0 in the third game of a series.
Los Angeles has now dropped three in a row and four of five, coming the heels of a four-game winning streak. The Angels are still on impressive runs of 57-30 overall, 27-15 on the road, 47-26 against the A.L. East (12-6 last 18), 39-14 in the third game of a series and 28-10 on Thursday.
The season series is now tied at 4-4 between these teams, but Los Angeles is still 13-7 in the last 20 meetings overall (6-4 at Fenway).
Santana has allowed three earned runs or fewer and pitched at least six innings in six of his last seven trips to the mound. That includes Saturday’s home start against the White Sox when the right-hander allowed three runs (two earned) in seven innings, but failed to get a decision in Los Angeles’ 4-3 loss. The Angels have lost four straight games behind Santana, scoring a total of seven runs.
On the bright side, the Angels are 6-2 in Santana’s last eight outings on the highway, where the 26-year-old is 6-3 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 outings this season. Santana is 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA in five regular-season starts against the Red Sox, and he also got knocked around in a home playoff start against Boston last October, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings, with L.A. falling 7-5.
Beckett gave up one run on four hits in five innings of Saturday’s 9-1 rout of Tampa Bay, the right-hander’s first win in exactly a month. After an ugly four-start stretch in which he gave up 25 runs (24 earned), including 12 home runs, in 24 1/3 innings (8.88 ERA), Beckett has settled down in his last two outings, giving up four runs (no homers) in 12 innings (3.00 ERA). The former Cy Young winner is 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA in 14 starts at Fenway this season.
Behind Beckett, Boston is on runs of 17-7 overall, 12-2 at home and 4-1 on Thursday. However, he’s 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA in his last four starts against the Angels (all Boston losses, including one in the playoffs), after going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his first five starts versus L.A. (with the Red Sox going 4-1).
With Beckett pitching, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 3-1-2 when facing the Angels at Fenway. The over is also 5-2 in Santana’s last seven road starts and 3-1-1 in his last five against the A.L. East, but Santana’s last four starts overall have stayed low and the under is 6-2-1 in his last nine Thursday outings.
L.A. is riding “under” streaks of 16-4-1 overall, 7-1 on the road and 12-4-1 against right-handed starters, but the over is 13-5-1 in the Halos’ last 19 against the A.L. East. Also, the over is 17-8 in Boston’s last 25 at Fenway and 6-1-1 in its last eight on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
DUNKEL
Kansas City at Detroit
The Royals look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115)
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Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 15.784; Cubs (Wells) 15.302
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+155); N/A
Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 13.683; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.392
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-300); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-300); Under
Game 955-956: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Figueroa) 13.776; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.195
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-265); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-265); Under
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Game 957-958: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 16.128; Cincinnati (Maloney) 15.020
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.568; Detroit (Jackson) 14.807
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over
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Game 961-962: Chicago White Sox at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.318; Seattle (Morrow) 16.485
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Under
Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 14.270; Baltimore (Hendrickson) 15.607
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under
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Game 965-966: LA Angels at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.529; Boston (Beckett) 15.875
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+155); Over
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 13.884; Oakland (Mortensen) 16.968
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Under
NCAAF
Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)
The Yellow Jackets look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Georgia Tech is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+5)
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Game 101-102: Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 92.709; Miami (FL) 93.473
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 5; 54
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+5); Under
WNBA
Phoenix at San Antonio
The Mercury open up the playoffs against a San Antonio team that went 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. Phoenix is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1)
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Game 605-606: Indiana at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.517; Washington 107.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 141 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2); Under
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Game 607-608: Phoenix at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.382; San Antonio 113.162
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 184 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 178
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1); Over
Charlie Scott
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Georgia Tech vs. Miami Florida
Play: Georgia Tech +5.5
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Tonight's game looks to be pretty equal in talent level and returning players with game experience. However, there is an advantage and it's with Coaching. G Tech Coach Paul Johnson is one of the better coaches in NCAAF, and has won with less talent at Navy and Georgia Tech. Miami coach Randy Shannon is an excellent recruiter, but can't game plan like Johnson. Tonight's a good spot to play Johnson and Georgia Tech as dogs !
Rob Vinciletti
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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Under 8.5
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In this series in Atlanta 17 of the last 24 games have stayed under the total. The Braves have gone 0-4 to the under as a home favorite in this range. Tonight they have J.Jurjens taking the mound. Jurjens has a solid 2.76 home era and 2.05 in his last three starts. In his last three starts vs the Mets he has allowed just 4 runs in 19+ innings. The Mets have gone under in 9 of 13 times as a road dog from +225 to +250. NY. has averaged just 3.3 runs per game over the past week, as their offensive woes have continued. On Thursday Nelson Figueroa makes the start in Atlanta. The Mets have stayed under the total in all three of Figueroa road starts and he has a fine 2.08 road era.
Ben Burns
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Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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The finale of this series is expected to feature Ervin Santana for the Angels vs. Josh Beckett for Boston. That should give the Red Sox an advantage. While he's been better recently, for the season, Santana is still 7-8 with a poor 5.52 ERA. Conversely, Beckett is an excellent 15-6 with a solid 3.82 ERA. The Red Sox have seen Santana already this season while the Angels haven't faced Beckett. The Red Sox have been superb at home (again) all season. Consider Boston
Tom Freese
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Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Over
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Cleveland is 34-15-6 OVER their last 55 games as road underdogs and they are 11-4-4 OVER their last 19 road games vs. righty starters. The Indians are 5-2 OVER their last 7 games vs. AL West teams an they are 4-1-2 OVER when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. Cleveland starter Justin Masterson has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Oakland starter Clayton Mortensen has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Mortensen has allowed 13 runs in 17 innings of work this year. The Athletics are 5-1 OVER their last games as home favorites and they 4-0-1 OVER in Game One of series. PLAY ON 'OVER'
MTi Sports
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Florida Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Florida Marlins
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The Marlins are 9-0 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers and 6-0 vs a team that has won at least their last two games. The Reds are 11-19 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs. Consider Florida.
DAVE COKIN
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TAMPA BAY RAYS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
TAKE: BALTIMORE ORIOLES
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Wade Davis had a spectacular debut for the Rays, but his second start was a rude awakening to life in the major leagues for a young pitcher. Davis has the tools to be a good one, and I'd already rate him as superior to Orioles starter Mark Hendrickson. But the Rays have little life right now, and they've been less than stellar on the road. I'll side with Baltimore to capture the series finale.
JIM FEIST
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CLEVELAND INDIANS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
TAKE: OAKLAND ATHLETICS
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Surprising to find a team like Cleveland a road favorite so far from home. Justin Masterson (4-7, 4.25 ERA) is better suited to relieving, as he struggles against lefties with that sidearm delivery. His control is also an issue, walking 13 in his last 3 starts (17 innings). That's more walks than Ks in those starts. The indians just lost 7 of 8 games and they've never faced Oakland starter Clayton Mortensen before. Play the Oakland A's.
Tony Mathews
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City/Detroit Under 7.5
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The Kansas City Royals will use starting pitcher Zack Greinke. Zack Greinke has pitched very well this season. In fact, Zack Greinke has a 2.19 ERA on the season. In addition, Zack Greinke has a 0.38 ERA in his last 3 starts. The UNDER is 19-9 in Zack Greinke's 28 starts this season.
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The Detroit Tigers will use starting pitcher Edwin Jackson. Edwin Jackson has also pitched well this season. In fact, Edwin Jackson has a 3.22 ERA on the season. The UNDER is 18-9 in Edwin Jackson's 27 starts this season.
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Trend: The UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in Zack Greinke's last 9 starts against the Detroit Tigers!
Take the Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers Under 7.5
EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Play: Los Angeles Angels +$153
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Boston's starting pitcher Josh Beckett tends to elevate his game in the playoffs, but he usually has his struggles in the second half of the regular season. This year Beckett is only 4-3 with a 4.60 ERA since the all star break and has been hit pretty hard at times, following an 11-3 start to the season in which he had a 3.35 ERA. This is not really something new for Beckett as in his past three seasons, Beckett was 32-11 in the first half of the season and only 15-17 after the all star break. The Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana has now gone four starts without a win, but has been pitching well for the last month and a half. I look for Santana to pitch a solid game here against the Sox. Los Angeles is 13-7 in the last twenty meetings with Boston and the Red Sox are 0-4 in Beckett's last four starts against the Angels. Play on LA.
HENTAI SPORTS
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Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
Prediction : Oakland Athletics
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Surprising to find a team like Cleveland a road favorite so far from home. Justin Masterson (4-7, 4.25 ERA) is better suited to relieving, as he struggles against lefties with that sidearm delivery. His control is also an issue, walking 13 in his last 3 starts (17 innings). That’s more walks than Ks in those starts. The indians just lost 7 of 8 games and they’ve never faced Oakland starter Clayton Mortensen before.
Jeff Benton
Kansas City at DETROIT
For Thursday’s free play, I’ll take the Tigers-Royals game UNDER the total in early afternoon action.
Pretty low number here, obviously, but for good reason, as All-Star right-handers Edwin Jackson (12-6, 3.22 ERA) and Zack Greinke (13-8, 2.19 ERA) are opposing one another. Of the two, Greinke’s been the much hotter pitcher of late, giving up just two runs (one earned) in his last three starts covering 24 innings (0.38 ERA) and just three earned runs in his last four starts covering 32 innings (0.84 ERA), with 34 strikeouts in those 32 innings.
Going back to the final week of the 2008 season, Greinke has faced the Tigers five times and allowed a grand total of five runs (four earned) in 38 innings, good for a ridiculous 0.95 ERA. The final scores of those five games: 5-0, 6-1, 6-1, 3-1 and 1-0, all five staying UNDER the total. In fact, the UNDER has hit in each of Greinke’s last nine starts against Detroit, with the right-hander allowing one or no runs in six of those contests!
As for Jackson, yeah, he’s struggled a bit lately (5.47 ERA last four starts). But he’s still been dominant at home this year (7-1, 3.44 ERA), and he’s owned the Royals the last two years (2.84 ERA in four starts).
Finally, this is a day game after a night game on getaway day, meaning we’re going to see two lethargic offenses going up against two dominant, hard-throwing, strikeout-capable right-handers – both of whom are likely to go deep into this contest. Barring lapses on defense, we’re not going to see many runners crossing home plate at Comerica Park this afternoon, so play it UNDER the total.
3♦ ROYALS-TIGERS UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels +145 at BOSTON
Tonight's FREE winner comes courtesy of the Angels as they wrap up a series in Boston against the Red Sox.
Tough way for the Angels to lose Wednesday night in Boston as they had two outs in the bottom of the ninth and gave up a couple lousy infield singles and then the home plate umpire made sure the Red Sox at least tied the game with a horrible missed third strike that would have given Los Angeles a victory.
The Angels were fuming when they left the field after the winning single and you know that anger is coming out today. You'll see it in the offense as they light up Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (15-6, 3.82 ERA).
Beckett had a spell of five games when he looked very shaky, allowing three runs or more in each and giving up 12 homers in the first four games of that stretch. He's had just one win in the last month and the Angels have certainly had his number the last few years. Boston is 0-4 in his last four starts against them, including two at home last year when he allowed a combined 11 runs in 10.1 innings of two losses, including a 5-4 loss in the playoffs.
Ervin Santana (7-8, 5.52) is on the hill for the Angels and while they have dropped each of his last four starts, they won five straight prior. He's held the opponents to three runs or less in six of his last seven outings and he beat the Red Sox back on May 14 when he gave up three runs in five innings of a 5-4 win.
The Angels are 39-14 in the third game of a series, 28-10 on Thursdays and 4-0 when Santana starts as a 'dog. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 2-5 when Beckett starts against a team with a winning record. Love the Angels to come out angry and deliver a big victory.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Angels at BOSTON
Our free play run stands at 34-19-3 coming into Thursday.
Well, after last night's OVER, that makes 4 of the last 6 games played this season between likely first round playoff foes having gone OVER the posted price.
Let's look for the series finale to feature a few runs scored, and for another OVER between the teams.
Ervin Santana has been pitching much better down the stretch, but he still has allowed 17 runs - 15 earned - in just under 37 innings of work, so he is hittable.
Josh Beckett will counter, and while his last 2 starts have been homer-free, we are still not convinced that his mechanics are all worked out, as the fact remains he has allowed 28 runs in his last 36-plus innings of work.
Play on the OVER in the series finale.
2♦ OVER