Karl Garrett
LA Angels +150 at BOSTON
Winner last night on Seattle, now 5-1 the last 6 days with my free plays.
G-Man has to believe the Angels are going to avoid the sweep in their series with Boston.
This could be a preview of the first round of the playoffs once again, and I feel after losing the first 2 games of this 3 game set, it is way more important for the Angels to leave Beantown with the win than it is for the Red Sox to break out the broom.
Ervin Santana has done his best work away from the Big "A", as he is 6-3 away from home, as opposed to 1-5 at home.
His counterpart Josh Beckett made some strides his last time out, allowing just 1 run in a 5 inning win over Tampa Bay, but the fact he pitched just 5 innings is a definite red flag in my mind. I am just not sure Beckett is close to being the dominant pitcher he was at the start of the year, and the fact remains, he is 0-3 the last 3 times he has faced the Angels, allowing 15 runs in 19 innings of work.
I will take LA to avoid the collar.
3♦ LA ANGELS
Stephen Nover
Angels at RED SOX
The worry isn't so much Josh Beckett. He's been very tough at Fenway Park this season going 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA. Closer Jonathan Papelbon should be available if needed after sitting out Wednesday's game.
Beckett may not have to worry about slugger Vladimir Guerrero, who is questionable after taking a pitch to the ribcage last night.
The concern about going under is more with Angles starter Ervin Santana. He was plagued with health problems earlier this season, so his ERA is a rather fat 5.52. However, Santana is pitching better lately. He's allowed two earned runs or less in three of his past four starts.
Santana probably won't have to face Kevin Youkilis either. He's doubtful with a sore back.
The Angels are 19-8-1 to the under in their last 28 games. The under has cashed in seven of their past eight away matchups.
Jeff Kellogg is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's been one of the best under umps this season with 20 of his 29 games going under the total. Kellogg is likely to have his usual generous strike zone, too, after the Angels felt that Thursday night's home umpire, Rick Reed, squeezed closer Brian Funentes in the ninth inning contributing to the Red Sox coming from behind to win.
2♦ ANGELS/RED SOX UNDER
Dominic Fazzini
Georgia Tech +4.5 at MIAMI
Miami, despite having some big injuries on defense, looked pretty good in its 38-34 victory over rival Florida State in the teams' season opener on Sept. 7.
I'm not expecting the Hurricanes to have similar success tonight against Georgia Tech, however.
The Yellow Jackets rushed for 472 yards in their 41-23 home victory over Miami last year, and have won four straight SU and ATS against the 'Canes, including two wins in Miami (14-10 in 2005 and 17-14 in 2007). Georgia Tech was the underdog in both of those games.
The Jackets had 418 yards of offense, including 301 on the ground, in their 30-27 home victory over Clemson last Thursday, but failed to cover as a 5-point favorite. They will need to shore up their defense, which allowed 386 yards to the Tigers, tonight against the 'Canes, and I think they will be effective enough to make this a tight game.
Miami has struggled ATS in many ways, including at home (13-32-1), as a favorite (20-43-1) and as a home favorite (10-31-1). It is also 3-13 ATS after a bye week, and 8-23 ATS after covering in its previous game.
The 'Canes very well could win this game, but they're not running away from the Jackets tonight. Go with Georgia Tech to get the cover.
2♦ GEORGIA TECH
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
The Mariners stink vs. left-handed pitching (just 3.8 runs per game & .250 team batting average), plus it doesn't help their cause that they are 27-41 at home this season off a win. Southpaw John Danks has been very strong all season long for Chicago and carries a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. The team has won 8 of his 10 road starts on grass this season. Finally, we point out that that Pale Hose are 23-15 after scoring two runs or less.
Play on: Chicago White Sox
LT Profits
LA Angels at Boston
These are two teams heading in opposite directions, as the Boston Red Sox have won seven straight games including the first two of this series, while the Los Angeles Angels have dropped four of their last five games.
Taken back further, the Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball as they are now 20-7 in their last 27 games overall. Moreover, they are 52-21 here in Fenway Park, where they are winning their games by an average of 1.83 runs per game. This fact always makes Boston worth a look on the Run Line at home.
Josh Beckett is having his best season in a few years as he is 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP overall, and an even more impressive 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. He also has 180 strikeouts in 193.1 innings this year, and the Red Sox as a team are 20-9 in all the games that he has started.
Meanwhile, Ervin Santana is a disappointing 7-8 while pitching for a winning cub that can score runs. That is what happens when you have a 5.52 ERA and a poor 1.55 WHIP in 115.2 innings. Granted, Santana has been pitching better lately, but he still rarely goes beyond six innings and he was rocked in two of his three career starts at Fenway.
Finally, Boston is averaging nearly six runs per game at home (5.95), so look for them to put up enough runs in support of Beckett for a Run Line victory.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
Doc's Sports
Take Kansas City Royals +100 over Detroit Tigers
The Twins have won four in a row, and the Tigers start a 9-game road trip at Minnesota tomorrow night. In fact, of their 16 remaining games, 7 will be against the Twins. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 9, while KC has won 7 of its last 9. Today the Tigers face Zack Greinke. Edwin Jackson, on the slab today for Detroit, appears to have a tired arm.
Matt Fargo
Kansas City at Detroit
Play: Detroit
The Tigers snapped their five-game losing streak to the Royals last night and it certainly was not easy but that momentum should carry forward here. Kansas City has been red hot with wins in seven of eight games prior to Wednesday but this season has proven to be tough to overcome losses overall as the Royals have been hit with numerous losing streaks of multiple games. Zack Greinke has been outstanding this season with a 2.19 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 29 starts, both of which easily lead the American League. Numbers like those are very good but looking at the big picture shows us that sometimes all that good pitching mean little. In those 29 starts, the Royals are just 14-15 in those 29 games which is pretty horrid considering the solid stats. If Greinke played for a better team, he would have more wins as would the team he is playing for. Kansas City started the season going 6-0 and 8-2 in his starts but since then it is 8-15 and 6-13 respectively so things have not been working out. The big problem has been run support as the Royals have scored three runs or less in 14 of his last 19 starts and two runs or less nine times over that span. On the road, Kansas City is averaging just 2.1 rpg in his 14 outings. Edwin Jackson started really strong and has fallen off somewhat but certainly not much. He has a 3.22 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 29 starts and while his ERA goes up to 3.44 at home, his WHIP drops to 1.20 and that is pretty important and has been part of the reason the Tigers have gone 10-3 in his 13 home starts. Seven of his 10 daytime starts this season have been quality outings and that means he can easily do it again. He has tossed two quality starts against the Royals this season with Detroit going 1-1 with the one win coming at home. As for Greinke, he is 4-4 in quality starts against Detroit but Kansas City is 0-2 in the two games pitched in Detroit. The Royals are 2-9 in Greinkes last 11 starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Tigers are 9-1 in Jacksons last 10 starts as a home favorite including a 5-0 record as a favorite of less than -150. 3* Detroit Tigers
BIG AL
LA Angels at Boston
Boston has their eyes set on a four-game sweep tonight in what should be an offensive showdown between the Red Sox and Angels at Fenway Park.
Our Thursday evening MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox going over the total at Fenway Park.
Dustin PedroiaOn August 12, Red Sox Josh Beckett seemed to have reached the pinnacle of his season so far when he won his 14th game (vs. only four losses) and held a 3.10 ERA. But since then Beckett has seen the innings pile up and he looks a bit like an over-worked and perhaps even tired pitcher.
After that 14th win, Beckett went without a victory in his next five starts (0-2) and he saw his ERA go from 3.10 to 3.87 before finally breaking through with a win in his last start. Since Beckett's loss on August 23 to the Yankees, it has looked like Boston has begun limiting his innings and pitches.
Beckett hurled five frames of one-run ball last Saturday in a rain-shortened victory over the Rays at Fenway Park. The 29-year-old righty improved to 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA in 94 2/3 innings of home work this season, however in seven lifetime starts against the Angels, Boston's ace is 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA.
Angels righthanded veteran Ervin Santana was solid on Saturday against the White Sox, allowing three runs (two earned) on seven hits over seven innings but was saddled with the no-decision. Santana was hurt by the long ball with two solo home runs, including an inside-the-park home run by Scott Podsednik. Santana is 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA in five career starts against the Red Sox. Take the Over.
Pick: Angels-Red Sox Over 9½
Bob Harvey
LA Angels at Boston
Josh Beckett takes the mound for the Red Sox opposite Ervin Santana and the Angels when Boston concludes their four-game series with the Halos at Fenway Park.
The Angels no doubt feel snake bit after suffering yet another loss to the Red Sox. Now they face the prospect of being swept in the three-game series as long time Halos nemesis Josh Beckett takes the hill opposite Ervin Santana in the series finale at Fenway Park.
Ervin SantanaLosing to Boston in the playoffs has become old hat for the team from Anaheim. The Angels' last two seasons have ended against Boston, and they’ve gone 1-9 against the Red Sox in the playoffs since 2004. Now that frustration has carried over into the regular season.
Boston has taken the first two games of the series and has now won seven straight overall and 10 in a row at Fenway. They own the best home record in baseball at 52-21 and are in the driver’s seat for the AL Wild Card holding a commanding 6.5 game lead on the Rangers. Despite their two losses in Beantown this week, Anaheim is still six games up on Texas in the battle for the AL West title.
On paper the Red Sox would seem to have a huge edge tonight with Beckett on the mound. There’s one thing for certain, the books love him making Beckett and the Sox a huge -165 favorite. Beckett enters with a record of 15-6 and an ERA of 3.82 but has struggled against the Halo’s. Since 2007 when he blanked LA in the opener of the ALDS, the Texas righthander is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA in four starts. Given the way Boston has been playing you can probably throw those numbers out the window.
Santana most certainly is not the guy Mike Scoscia wants on the mound tonight. Santana hasn’t beaten Boston in four years and is 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA although his recent outings give Angel backers hope. He’s got a 2.96 ERA in his last seven starts but none of those have come against the red-hot Red Sox.
Last night’s 9-8 final was the exception not the rule for these two teams. It was the first Over the Angels have played in their last 10 outings. It could be a sign they’re coming out of their offensive slump. Facing Beckett won’t help the Angels stay on track. Take the Under as the Red Sox finish off a sweep of their likely first-round playoff opponent.
Pick: Angels-Red Sox Under 9½
Tony George
Georgia Tech vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami -5.5
While I am passing on this game as an official play as I think it is a risky call, no matter what side you are on, which means I will not put my own money on this one, as there are better ones upcoming, I will give you my opinion on how I see it.
When losing money on GT last week against Clemson after the Yellow Jackets blew a 24 point lead only to win and not cover on a last second field goal, it was apparent to me that they have issues on offense. They are completely one dimensional with the running game. There is no doubt they have a great RB in Dwyer, and their QB is capable of making big plays running it as well.. A varied triple option attack used by head coach Paul Johnson works against teams who either do not have a strong A-gap containment or no ability to use speed to get linebackers outside to shut down the corner. They won their game against Clemson with 2 big plays, and a special teams TD. They were totally dominated in the second half of that game.
Being a fan of the old Tom Osborne led Huskers in the 90’s using this same approach, I totally under how it works. That being said, QB Nesbit has a 36% completion rate on the season, is a poor passer and GT cannot play from behind and win games against good opponents if they get bottled up on the option attack which Clemson shut down last week. Their defense is suspect to the vertical passing game, as Jacoby Ford from Clemson destroyed them downfield last week and RB Spiller ran all over them. In essence, speed killed GT in the second half, on offense and defense.
Miami has speed on both sides of the ball. They won a huge game at Florida State on Labor Day and won it with speed, depth, and a balanced attack and QB Harris is better than advertised and has some chops. They are avenging a 41-23 loss last year in this game and revenge is a big factor in college football. While the defensive numbers favor GT, bear in mind the yards given up by Miami were mostly through the air against Florida State, and as mentioned, GT does not throw the ball well at all. They held FSU to 109 rushing. If Miami gets out to a fast start and GT has to get out of their game plan and throw to win, Miami walks away with it. If not, expect a 4 quarter battle, but I will lean with the home team in this one.
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they face Anaheim set to start at 7:05 EST. Boston is a solid 24-7 (+18.1 Units) against the money line versus excellent fielding teams averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season; 16-3 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better this season; 38-12 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season. Anaheim starter Santana is a weak 6-14 (-11.9 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. For many of the same reason I had a 10* winner on Boston yesterday apply to this game as well. Anaheim can hit. No doubt there as they rank 1st in team batting average, 3rd in OPS, 5th in total bases, but 12th in home runs. The fact that they are not an elite power hitting team is exactly what makes them tough to face. BUT, they have one of the worst bullpens. In fact, it is the worst bullpen by far of the playoff teams. Boston, by the way, ranks second in OPS and has a far superior bullpen. Take Boston.
Drew Gordon
Chi. White Sox at SEATTLE +115
Now on a 56-46 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chicago White Sox/Seattle match up.
Good spot to grab some of that plus money, as the Mariners look to close the series with the White Sox with a W, and they've got just the pitching match up to do it. Read on...
Don't be fooled by John Danks recent quality win at Safeco, as he's had little success against the Mariners in his career, going 1-4 with an ugly 6.11 ERA. Coupled with the fact the White Sox are just 4-10 in their L14 meetings in Seattle, and this match up does not bode well for the talented southpaw. Prior to his last win against the Mariners, they roughed him up for 5 runs in on 8 hits over just 4 innings in late April.
On the flip side, I know a lot of bettors were hardly impressed with Brandon Morrow's first win of the season in his last start. He allowed 3 runs on 5 hits over 5 innings, but a win is a win, and Morrow needed to get than monkey off his back. If you saw him in that contest, you saw a more confident pitcher, changing speeds, using his breaking stuff, and limiting his walks somewhat... Overall a solid effort the young righty can build off of tonight.
Finally, one of the White Sox's biggest problems has been at the plate, where their offense has fallen asleep at the wheel, especially with men in scoring position. With Seattle having better than average success against Danks in the past, a sputtering White Sox offense will have to produce tonight, and I just don't see that happening. They're averaging 2.8 runs per game on this roadtrip and while Danks has the edge over Morrow on paper, that hasn't been the case when Seattle matches up against Chiacago's southpaw. Mariners circle the wagons at Safeco, handing Danks and the White Sox another disappointing loss in Seattle tonight.
Take Seattle behind Morrow over the Chicago White Sox and Danks in this MLB match up.
1♦ SEATTLE
Michael Cannon
Chicago White Sox -125 at SEATTLE
Take the White Sox for the road win over the Mariners.
Chicago has the advantage in the pitching matchup, as John Danks goes against Brandon Morrow.
Danks is 12-9 with a 3.71 ERA on the year and has recorded seven straight quality starts. The left-hander is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA during that stretch.
Morrow recorded his first win in more than two months on Saturday against Texas. The right-hander started the season in the bullpen before being moved into the rotation. He’s 1-4 with a 5.29 ERA on the year.
The White Sox have had problems getting hits with runners in scoring position, but they should get plenty of opportunities to right that ship against Morrow.
Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last 10 games and is coming off a 4-1 defeat last night.
Take the White Sox as they keep that trend going with the win tonight.
2♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Mr. Vegas Wins
Marlins at Reds
On September 8 the Reds called up SP Matt Maloney up from minors. He is 0-4 with a 5.65 ERA. The Marlins have been playing good ball the last 2 weeks, a second place team behind the defending champion Phillies. Righty Anibal Sanchez has very good stuff and sports a 2.87 ERA his last three starts. The Florida offense is strong, 9th in all of baseball in runs scored, while the Reds are 27th. Play Marlins.
Randall the Handle
BOSTON –1½ +1.26 over L.A. Angels
The Angels are just a damaged squad as soon as they step foot into Fenway and after last might’s devastating loss, one has to wonder how they can possibly bounce back tonight. For one, they had trouble scoring against Paul Byrd, they had a 3-0 lead, blew it, they had a 7-5 lead, blew it and they had a 9-8 lead with two outs in the ninth and nobody on and blew that too. They Angels walked off dejected and psychologically drained while the Red Sox celebrated like they had just won a playoff series. This was without Youkilis and Victor Martinez and it appears as though the latter will be back tonight. The Red Sox have won 10 straight at home and Ervin Santana hasn’t beaten Boston since 2005. Including playoffs, he’s 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA in his last five starts against the Red Sox. Angels can’t get out of here fast enough and it would be a huge surprise to see them respond tonight after its most hurting and damaging loss of the year last night. Play: Boston –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).