Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 18

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Houston
The Astros wrap up their series against a Cleveland team that comes into tonight's contest with a 1-4 record in Danny Salazar's last 5 starts as a road favorite. Houston is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115)

Game 951-952: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.721; Miami (Hand) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.934; Cubs (Wada) 15.845
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); N/A

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.780; St. Louis (Miller) 16.320
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under

Game 957-958: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Nuno) 14.429; Colorado (Flande) 13.505
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at San Diego (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 13.682; San Diego (Erlin) 15.112
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Under

Game 961-962: Texas at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Martinez) 15.869; Oakland (Gray) 14.324
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-290); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+240); Over

Game 963-964: Toronto at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.963; NY Yankees (Greene) 14.429
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 14.653; Houston (Feldman) 15.504
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Under

Game 967-968: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.586; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.199
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: Boston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Workman) 14.447; Pittsburgh (Cole) 16.895
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-210); Over

Ray Monohan

Auburn vs. Kansas St
Play: Auburn -8½

If you saw the Arkansas/A&M game this one will go about the same. In that one the brute force of the running game of the visiting Razorbacks eventually took over making a game that was close early a blowout. Substitute Auburn and their gashing ground attack and you have a winner on Thursday night. The Tigers will overpower the Wildcats who won’t be able to scheme their way to keeping it close.

Chase Diamond

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game features the 0-2 Tampa at the 1-1 Falcons. Things couldn't have started out worse for Tampa Bay losing the the crappy Rams thanks to a bad NFL rule as they were in position for a game winning field goal Sunday. Expect alot of pissed of Buccaneers Thursday as they do no want to fall to 0-3 and on National T.V. it's a huge game. Now I don't see them winning but I think there defense keeps them in the game. And with the public so heavy on Atlanta who still hasn't straighten out their suspect Defense.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package

Joe Gavazzi

Auburn vs. Kansas State
Play: Auburn -8½

The brilliant offensive mind of Auburn HC Malzahn has implemented the country’s best zone-read offensive attack. Along with a fast tempo, the Tigers have yet to be slowed down in the last year. In fact, Auburn has scored 30+ points, 12 consecutive games. The Tigers enter tonight’s matchup with 13 consecutive covers. With this year’s QB Marshall at the controls, Auburn is averaging 330/6.7 overland with covers against Arkansas and San Jose, respective wins of 24 and 46 points. On the other sideline is the defensive genius of Kansas St. HC Snyder. His teams have lived up to his reputation as one of the best underdog mentors of all time. Witness the recent log of 20-9 ATS in the underdog role, including 5-1 ATS on this field. One must question, however, if a retooling Wildcat defense is capable of stopping this juggernaut being challenged by only SFA in the opener, then barely surviving Iowa St., whose middle of the road attack dropped 28 on Kansas St.

Sam Martin

Auburn at Kansas St.
Prediction: Auburn

Not at all impressed with Kansas State so far, who dominated a bad FCS team in Stephen F Austin (did not cover the spread) and then struggled a week and a half ago against a bad Iowa State team - winning by just four points as a big 12-point favorite. Wildcats relied heavily on their running game in both of those wins, but won't be able to do so Thursday night against Auburn.

Wildcats are playing at home, but that's about the extent of any advantages they have in this contest. Auburn won in impressive fashion as big favorites in their two warmup games, and the expected massive advantages at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball should be the difference here. We have full confidence Auburn will be able to stop Kansas State's rushing attack, and nobody slows down Auburn in their own running game. Road teams under the lights are at a slight disadvantage, but running teams don't feel that effect as much as passing teams.

EZWINNERS

Altanta Falcons -6.5

After knocking off the Saints in week one and looking like an unstoppable offensive unit, the Falcons were shutdown by a very good Cincinnati defense on the road. Coming back home to the dome and facing Tampa Bay who is traveling on a short week should get Matt Ryan and company back on track. I had high hopes for the Bucs this season, but they are sitting at 0-2 after home losses to a Carolina team playing the 2nd string quarterback and a St. Louis team that played their 3rd string quarterback. The defense for Tampa Bay has not been that bad, it has been the offense that has really struggled. Quarterback Josh McCown has made bad decisions with the football and head coach Lovie Smith seems to be playing not to lose with very conservative play calling instead of playing to win and taking some shots on big plays. We must also remember that the Bucs defense has played good enough to win, but they have also not faced an NFL starting quarterback yet this season. I expect Matt Ryan to put up some big numbers in this game and while the Falcons' defense is not a top tier group themselves, this will be a big step down in competition after facing the Saints and Bengals the first two weeks of the season. Lay the points.

Ssleepyj

Pittsburgh -1.5 +100

Pittsburgh right now has to keep winning games and hope the Giants or Cardinals slip up along the way. They have a favorable schedule and in tonight's matchup i think they may put another hurt on the Red Sox. Pittsburgh lit up the scoreboard last night scoring 9 runs and getting themselves 15 hits. They face yet again another RHP in Workman for Boston who is not very good. I expect the Pirates to keep the pedal to the medal her tonight and i think a repeat performance is coming once again. Pittsburgh will send Garret Cole to the mound tonight for a red hot Pirates team who has won 11 out of 13. This team is hitting the ball maybe the best in baseball right now. Cole has pitched decent in the last month or so but he really will get the benefit of knowing his team is hitting the ball very well. I think that alone will calm him down as he takes the mound tonight. I really think Cole can or will have his best outing of the year tonight. Boston looks about finished here as the season is near it's end. Cole hasn't lost a game in Pittsburgh since June 28th. I don't see him dropping this game or the Pirates not putting up close to 6 or 7 runs. I think Boston will sleep walk here tonight..Let's lay the RL once again and grab some more +$ as we did last night with this same team and wager.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

San Diego is a huge park and Philadelphia is 3,000 miles from home, a tough situational spot. The Phillies are 17-36 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record. This Phillies offense is terrible and starter Kyle Kendrick (9-12, 4.72 ERA) has not been sharp on the road with a 3-6 record and a 5.11 ERA. The Phillies are 6-13 in Kendrick's last 19 road starts. The Padres are 23-8 in their last 31 home games. Starter Robbie Erlin has a 2.92 ERA at home and the Phillies have not faced him. The Padres are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 9-2 at home against a team with a losing record.

Golden Retriever

Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick : Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5

The Red Sox have been beaten up lately, they are currently 66-86 and last night's thumping by the Bucs dropped their run differential to -93. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia won't be there for them, so the weak offense got weaker. Note that Boston have lost 34 games in second half, and only six of those decided by one run, so we can bet on the Run-Line to get better odds. Besides, there are huge pitching mismatch on the mound, the Pirates are 10-3 in Cole's last 13 starts, while the Red Sox have lost 12 straight games in Workman's last 12 outings. We expect the young ace Cole gets big win as Pittsburgh continues to push for the last wildcard spot.

Larry Ness

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia had put up four runs or less in 11 straight games before snapping a three-game losing streak Wednesday in a 5-2 win at San Diego (Padres’ Eric Stults now is tied with Philly’s Burnett for eth most losses among starters with 17). The Phillies won’t get to face Stults again tonight (too bad) but instead draw Robbie Erlin (3-4, 4.89 ERA), who has struggled with elbow soreness but gets the spot start in place of the injured Tyson Ross. Erlin hasn't started since May 17 and hasn't appeared in a game since allowing three runs in two innings of a 6-0 loss at Colorado on September 7. In eight starts in 2014 (all from April 9 thru May 17), he was 3-4 and the team 3-5. A sliver of hope reveals that he’s 3-2 with a 2.53 ERA in his nine starts at Petco Park in parts of two seasons with San Diego (Padres are 5-4).

"This is an opportunity for Robbie to show what he can do against a major league lineup," manager Bud Black said. However, I’m not ‘biting’ and would rather go with Kyle Kendrick (9-12, 4.72 ERA). He has built some strong ties in Philadelphia during his eight seasons with the club that selected him in the seventh round of the 2003 draft. He may be nearing the end of that tenure though, with his contract set to expire at the end of the year. "I came up in this organization," he told MLB's official website. "A lot of teammates are still around (from) when I came up. I don't know. It's tough. I'm a pretty loyal guy. My kids were born here. Met my wife here, you know. I have a lot of things here."

Kendrick may be giving the Phillies something to think about. He's gone 4-1 in his last eight starts (team is 6-2) and has pitched particularly well in two of his last three. After allowing three hits over seven innings in a 4-0 win at Atlanta on September 2, he struggled in a home loss to Pittsburgh before bouncing back Saturday by allowing one run over 6.1 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Marlins that may have been his last home start with the Phillies. Kendrick has allowed just three earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts against the Padres (in his only meeting this season, he gave up two runs, one earned, over six innings in a 7-3 home victory June 12), giving him a 3-1 career mark in five starts (team is 4-1).

Rob Vinciletti

Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7

Both teams have played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pitching match is a good one with Kyle Lohse taking on Shelby Miller. In his last 3 starts Miller has a solid 0.45 era and the Cards have won all 7 of his career starts vs the Brewers. St. Louis has played under in 5 of 7 at home off a home win where they scored 2 or less runs. Now for the total system. Play the under form home favorites of -140 or higher with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home win by 2+ runs and scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits. These games have averaged a shade over 5 runs and have stayed under 80% of the time the last 11 years. Look for these two to go under the total.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia vs. San Diego
Pick: Philadelphia

The Phillies will wrap up their series in San Diego tonight, and after winning Game 3, they can salvage a split in the finale. With San Diego sending a shaky young pitcher to the mound, the visitors look good as a dog.

Robbie Erlin will come out of the bullpen to make the start, and he hasn't impressed in recent appearances. Erlin (3-4, 4.89 ERA) was rocked for seven runs on 14 hits over just seven innings in his last two outings. He has one win in four starts at PETCO this season, posting a 2.91 ERA in those games.

The Phillies hand the ball to Kyle Kendrick, who has been very solid lately. Kendrick (9-12, 4.72 ERA) allowed one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings in a home win over Miami his last time out. He's 4-1 over his last five starts, and the Phillies have won seven of his last 10 appearances. He defeated the Padres earlier this season, allowing a pair of runs on seven hits over six innings in that game.

San Diego ranks last in the major leagues in all offensive categories, so you have to like Kendrick's chances of picking up a "W" tonight.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

William Holloway

Atlanta Falcons -6.5

Huge bounce back game for the Falcons as they are 13-4 ATS after a double-digit loss by 10 or more under Mike Smith. Especially being at home playing a banged up Bucs team who couldn’t win at home against the Rams. Now having to go on the road, into a dome, on a short week & against a better team will prove to be too much for the Bucs to overcome.

Tony Stoffo

Auburn vs. Kansas St
Play: Under 65

Also going to add a play on the under in this spot between the Tigers and Wildcats – as I see a strong Reverse action money move setting up here. As expected the public all on the over here with 70% of all bets placed – yet the odds makers have started to move this total the other way meaning the sharps have started to come in heavy on the under – so let’s follow the money and release a play on the under tonight.