Jimmy Boyd
San Diego Padres -126
The Padres are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Phillies. San Diego had won each of the first two games in the series before getting shutdown by Cole Hamels last night. With Kyle Hendricks taking the mound for Philadelphia in this one, I look for the Padres to bounce back and close out the series with a win. Kendrick is just 3-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.309 WHIP over 14 road starts in 2014.
I'll gladly take my chances on Robbie Erlin to out pitch Kendrick and guide San Diego to victory. Erlin has a 3.00 ERA and 1.042 WHIP over 4 home starts and comes in with a strong 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP over his last 3 outings. In his only career start against the Phillies, Erlin held Philadelphia to just 2 earned runs on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings.
There's a key system backing San Diego, as home teams who are hitting 2.55 or worse as a team after a stretch where they are hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games are 70-27 over the last 5 seasons against an opposing starter with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20. That's a 72% system in favor of the Padres.
Steve Janus
St Louis Cardinals -136
I was spot on with the Cardinals as my free pick yesterday and I'm coming right back with St Louis on Thursday. The Cardinals have a huge advantage in this one when it comes to starting pitching. St Louis will send out the red-hot Shelby Miller against the struggling Kyle Lohse.
Miller had an awful start to 2014, but he's came alive down the stretch and enters this matchup with a sensational 0.45 ERA and 0.700 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's allows just 1 earned run over his last 20 innings of work. Lohse on the other hand has allowed 14 runs in his last 16 1/3 innings, as he comes in with a 7.71 ERA and 1.469 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Lohse also has a less than impressive 4.71 ERA on the road this season and is 3-7 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 12 career starts against St Louis.
Key Trends/System - Brewers are 5-19 in their last 24 road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less, 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less, 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 3-11 in their last 14 following a loss. St Louis is 20-8 in their last 28 home games in the month of September and 21-8 in their last 29 as a home favorite. Add it up and that's a 88-27 (77%) system telling us to BET THE CARDINALS -136!
Will Rogers
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -1½ -103
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 10-5 in September so far, and they'll look to complete the sweep at home versus Boston tonight. The Red Sox have been out-scored 13-1 while losing the first two games of this series, and with a struggling pitcher on the mound, that trend is likely to continue tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Brandon Workman, who is 0-9 over his last 10 starts. He was torched for six runs on six hits in just three innings in a loss to the Orioles in his most recent appearance. He's been slightly better on the road than he has been at Fenway, but still he's 1-3 with a 4.54 ERA in eight appearances away from Boston. The Pirates will counter with Gerit Cole, who has won his last two starts.
2. Pirates Hot Bats - Neil Walker is 10 for 22 with two homers, three doubles and six RBIs in his last six games, and Josh Harrison is 9-for-23 with a pair of doubles and three RBIs during the first five games of this home stand.
3. X-Factor - The Pirates have won six of their last seven overall, and all of those victories were in games decided by multiple runs.
Nelly
Phillies / Padres Under 7
So far in September Philadelphia has the worst team OBP in all of baseball. In last night's game the Phillies scored five runs for the first time since September 5, spanning 11 games with four or fewer runs scored. Robbie Erlin has been hurt much of the season and his ERA is 4.89, not exactly an impressive mark especially for someone pitching mostly at Petco Park. Erlin owns a nearly 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio however. This will be his first start since May and while his relief outing last week went poorly he was forced to return at Coor's Field. Erlin had one awful start at Washington in April but in his other seven starts this season he allowed four or fewer runs and he was promising in limited action last season with San Diego. At home his ERA is 2.92 this season and he should have a favorable matchup for a confidence-building outing. Kyle Kendrick has been a workhorse for the Phillies with mostly average results but this is a San Diego lineup that has gone cold again after a brief surge right after the All Star break. San Diego is batting .227 in the last 10 games, although that figure is well above the .194 team average for the Phillies in that span. Both bullpens have been very good for the season and of late and in the first three games of this series there have been just 17 runs. Four of the six meetings this season have featured seven or fewer runs as well.
MLB Predictions
St. Louis Cardinals -140
Over the past few games you may not find a hotter pitcher than Shelby Miller. It feels a little uncanny to say, but Miller has been one of the best. Statistically it is easy to see, Miller possesses a minuscule ERA of 0.45 his last three games with a 0.70 WHIP and .194 OBP. Miller will have a couple of bad games, but then he follows it up with several starts in a row where he is unhittable. With only a couple of more starts to raise his ERA from 3.75 he should continue to be locked in. Kyle Lohse has seemed to pack it in for the season, doing exactly the opposite of Miller recently. He's posted a 7.71 ERA his last three starts and has generally looked bad the last two months, including two starts in his last ten where he gave up 7 runs, one of those being against the Cardinals. Lohse faced the Cards again on September 6th, getting mashed again for 5 runs. This will be the third time Lohse faces the Cardinals in seven starts. Look for St. Louis to do more of the same, as there is no way Lohse is going to bring anything new that he didn't do in the past. And in the past, the Cardinals were hitting everything thrown their way at the plate. -140 is a high price to me, as you probably notice I don't take many favorites over -130. However, I feel like this line should be -165ish or so. Consequently, I think there is some value to be had at -140
Jimmy Boyd
Auburn at Kansas St
Play: Kansas St.
The fact that Auburn has covered 13-straight games dating back to last season is impressive, but it's a streak that is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. There's no question that this line has been inflated by the books and I believe the Tigers luck will have run out in a huge nationally televised game on the road in a weekday game against Kansas State. Bill Snyder and the Wildcats have a history of not just covering the spread as a home dog, but winning the game outright. Kansas State also has a history of delivering a strong performance against ranked opponents. Only once in the last 3 years have they lost to a ranked opponent by more than 10-points and they have played 11 ranked teams during this stretch. Manhattan will be rocking and that energy inside the stadium is going to have Kansas State playing like this is the Super Bowl. Last year the Tigers played just 4 true road games and were no where near as impressive as they were at home. They lost at LSU 21-35, barely squeaked by Texas A&M 45-41 and the other two wins came against Arkansas and Tennessee, who went a combined 2-14 in SEC play. It's also worth noting that this a rare true road game in non-conference play for Auburn and it's not a spot they have performed well in. In each of the previous 5 times they have been in this spot, the Tigers have lost the game outright. Their last win in this situation was back in 1997 on the road against Virginia. I’m not saying Auburn will lose this contest, but this is a pretty good indicator that they won’t be as dominant as some might expect. We also see a strong system in play on Kansas State, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an experienced starter back at quarterback in a non-conference game in the first month of the season are 130-71 ATS since 1992. That's a 65% system in favor of the Wildcats.
Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners -147
The Seattle Mariners (81-70) trail both the A's and Royals by two games for the final wild card spot in the American League. They know that each game from here on out is essentially a must-win, and I certainly like their chances tonight with their ace on the mound.
The Los Angeles Angels (95-57) own the best record in baseball. They just clinched the AL West with their victory last night coupled with an A's loss. That makes this a massive letdown spot for them after celebrating in the clubhouse last night with champagne.
Felix Hernandez is having yet another Cy Young-caliber season. He has gone 14-5 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three starts against the Angels in 2014, allowing just three earned runs in 21 2/3 innings.
The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Seattle is 6-1 in its last seven games as a road favorite. The Mariners are 17-7 in Hernandez's last 24 starts. The Angels are 4-10 in Weaver's last 14 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Seattle is 4-0 in Hernandez's last four starts vs. Los Angeles.
Dave Price
New York Yankees -114
The Yankees are showing value at this affordable price given the success they've had at home against the Blue Jays. The Yanks are 39-13 in their last 52 home games in the series, including 21-4 in their last 25. Dickey has pitched well in his last three starts versus the Yankees but all three were at home. He's lost his last two starts at Yankee Stadium while giving up seven runs in 15 innings. Green has had a fantastic rookie season, posting a 3.57 ERA in 12 starts with the Yankees winning eight of those. He has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts, including eight of his last nine.
LT Profits
Philadelphia vs San Diego
Pick: Over 7
While this game is in a pitchers’ park, these starters should still allow for an ‘over’ at this low total when Kyle Kendricks and the Philadelphia Phillies visit Robbie Erlin and the San Diego Padres, as neither has posted numbers that merit this total. Kendrick is 9-12 with a 4.72 ERA, and while he has two Quality Starts in his last three starts, those are his only Quality Starts in his last seven outings. He has just 5.63 strikeouts per nine innings while surrendering 1.16 home runs per game, resulting in a 4.52 FIP. Erlin was 3-4 with a 4.89 ERA earlier this year and now makes his first start since coming off of the 60-Day Disabled List with an injury to his throwing elbow, and the Padres’ bullpen has slumped to a 4.14 ERA the last 10 games. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Diego.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +6 -115 over ATLANTA
We’ve often said that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone is jumping off and that applies to the Buccaneers here. In Week 1, Tampa was a small favorite over Carolina and that number kept moving slightly in Tampa’s favor throughout the week. Sunday morning it was announced that Cam Newton would miss the game and that news sent bettors to the windows in droves. Tampa moved from a 3-point favorite to a 4½-point choice in the span of about three hours and lost the game outright. Fast forward to Week 2 and the Bucs open as a favorite again, this time against the Rams, a team that was wiped out 34-6 by the Vikings in their season opener. To make matters worse for the Rams, they were forced to use their third string QB and that news prompted another rush at the betting windows, again in the Bucs favor. Tampa closed as a 6-point choice (up from 4½) against St. Louis and once again lost outright. The public is in no hurry to bet the Bucs again this week but they are in a hurry to bet against them. Now that TB’s stock is low and they go from a 6-point choice to a 6½-point dog in one week, we’re buyers.
The question now becomes which Falcons team shows up this week? Will it be the one that hung with the Saints in Week 1 before putting them away with a late TD or will it be the one that forgot there was a game last week in Cincinnati? The Falcons figure to rebound and play better this week because they always play better at home, but frankly we couldn’t care less. Lovie Smith will be prepared. He’ll run the ball often in an attempt to limit the Falcons possessions and it just might work. Atlanta has been gashed on the ground by both Cinci and New Orleans while Tampa gashed the Rams for 157 on the ground last week and even went off for 102 against the tough run defense of the Panthers in Week 1. In fact, Atlanta’s rush defense ranks dead last in the NFL. Since the beginning of 2013, Atlanta has been in this price range just three times and failed to cover twice. That includes a one-point home win (27-26) in Mid-December last year against the then brutal Redskins. Tampa’s loss to St. Louis last week did extensive damage to its stock and now we’re the beneficiaries of the public’s perception of them.
Pass NCAAF
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +127 over ST. LOUIS
Exquisite control still leads the way for Kyle Lohse, offsetting that mild hr/f spike. His stable hit % and history against both lefties and righties says that he's still keeping hitters on both sides off balance, even without a killer strikeout rate or groundball rate. Lohse’s profile still points to some risk, but his three-year consistency isn't debatable. As a dog, Lohse offers up value because he almost always keeps his team in the game. Lohse is reliable but this one is still more about fading Shelby Miller.
Miller’s stock is high right now after posting an ERA of 0.45 over his last three starts but it’s all been fueled by nothing but good fortune. Miller’s strand rate of 89% over that stretch is unsustainable and that’s not the only red flag in his profile. Miller has a 3.75 ERA, which is a reasonable mark that hides just how bad his skills have been. His first pitch strike has dipped from 62% in '13 to 59% so far this season. Likewise, his swinging strike rate is down from 9% to 7%. Miller has the highest walk rate (12 percent) among starting pitchers and his strikeout-walk ratio (1.44) is the third worst. He's also allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings. Left-handed hitters have been doing plenty of damage against him, as well, because he doesn't have an effective off-speed pitch to keep them from sitting on his fastball. Throw in Miller’s weak groundball/fly-ball split of 35%/48% and one can see the risk even more. The Cardinals have a “no-October” policy that kept Miller off their playoff roster a year ago and it would come as no surprise if they did the same thing this year because he’s a huge risk every time he takes the mound. They know it and now, so do you.
Jeff Alexander
Seattle Mariners -147
Based on the line, oddsmakers don't expect the Angels to be on top of their game after a night of celebrating a division title. Frankly, they'd have trouble beating King Felix even if they were on top of their game. Hernandez has been nearly unhittable this season, going 14-5 with a 2.14 ERA. The Angels can attest to that. The Mariners are 3-0 in Hernandez's starts against them this season, and he's allowed just 3 earned runs in 21 2-3 innings in these starts. The Mariners are 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 starts versus the Angels going back to last season. Weaver has been good, but he hasn't been as sharp as King Felix. And, it is worth mentioning that the Angels are only 4-10 in Weaver's last 14 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Hollywood Sports
Auburn at Kansas St.
Prediction: Over
Auburn (2-0) enters this game coming off their dominant 59-13 win against San Jose State as a 33-point favorite back on September 6th. The Tigers have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after both a point spread win as well as a straight-up victory. Auburn has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. Kansas State (2-0) also comes off a win two Saturdays ago -- a 32-28 victory at Iowa State where they were 11-point favorites. The Wildcats have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Kansas State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. And in their last 11 games coming after their bye week, the Wildcats have played 9 of these games Over the Total.
Primetime Insiders
Colorado -1.5 + 160
This may be a hard play to swallow as we are backing Yohan Flande who is 0-5 this season with an ERA north of 5.50. Our system actually likes Flande in this spot and think he will give the Diamondbacks fits. Flande is very dependent on his fastball but does actually have some success if he mixes it up with his changeup. Flande is also not prone to the home runs as he does a good job of not allowing line drives as we know those usually leave the park at Coors. The Rockies look to build on all the runs they scored last night and going up against Nuno who is also winless in 12 starts this season. Nuno on the other hand is not regarded as highly in our system and will struggle as he is very dependent on the fly ball out which we know is an issue at Coors. There should be a lot of runs scored in this contest but the majority scored by Colorado. This Rockies should be able to score enough runs to give Flande some room for error and get us the run line win.
Cleveland -1.5 +125
Cleveland sends Salazar to the mound tonight against Feldman and Houston. Salazar is very underrated per our system and should be in line for a good night in Houston. Salazar is very strikeout dependent getting close to 10 strikeouts per 9 innings and is going up against one of the highest strikeout teams in baseball which should bode well for him. Feldman on the other hand is overrated per our system and could really be in for a long night against the plate savvy Indians and their above average offense. Salazar should be able to get 8 to 9 strikeouts tonight and enough run support to get us the run line win.
Bob Balfe
Arizona / Colorado Over 10.5
Colorado has put up 26 runs in the past two nights and now will have an awful pitcher on the mound today who has not won a game this year. The wind is blowing out this evening and I expect both teams to put up a ton of runs in this one. The starters in this game are not MLB quality. Take the Over.