Harry Bondi
AUBURN (-7) over Kansas State
Kansas State has looked relatively sloppy in posting a 2-0 record against inferior opponents, especially in a 32-28 victory over Iowa State in a game they were favored by 12 points. Auburn's offense is virtually unstoppable, so anything short of perfect defense tonight from the Wildcats will turn into points for the Tigers. Look for Jeremy Johnson and Nick Marshall to pick apart the Wildcats' leaky secondary for a couple of big plays and take the home crowd out of things immediately. Despite last year's surprising ride to the National Championship Game, Auburn is still being undervalued, as seen by its 2-0 ATS record this year and 10-4 ATS record as a favorite. It will take a perfect game from Kansas State to keep this one close and we don't think the Wildcats have it in them. Lay it!
OC Dooley
Nationals -150
Tonight is a “homecoming” for Washington’s starting pitcher which will be detailed at the bottom of this analysis. For those who have taken the time to read this analysis you are aware that Washington officially clinched the National League East divisional crown a couple of nights ago. On Wednesday the Nationals basically waved the “white flag” fielding a lineup of basically Triple-A minor leaguers as the regulars were given a well deserved night off. But Washington cannot afford to give away many games since their lead for the best overall record in the entire National League and the precious homefield advantage which goes with it is ONLY one-and-a-half games. In my mind the ODDSMAKERS have made a major statement casting the Nationals as a prohibitive road favorite since tonight’s starter Gio Gonzalez has won only TWICE dating all the way back to the Fourth of July holiday. Initially Gonzalez was supposed to pitch on Wednesday but was “moved up” a day since the team was still in celebration mode. That divisional title basically gave Gonzalez a chance to pitch in his HOMETOWN of Miami and his odds of success up against Brad Hand (8.03 career ERA versus the Nationals) are strong
The Duke's Sports
Kansas State +8
Auburn's Malzahn is an awesome coach who can find seams in a defense to exploit and will bring a fundamentally sound defense and specialty teams to the field every week however, legendary Wildcats' HC Snyder at 74 still has sharp thought reaction time and demands perfection from his players. He can still get talent in Manhattan too. The Wildcats will have a healthy Tyler Lockett to add to the receiving mix in addition to the strong run game today. We'll look for the record breaking home crowd to help keep K State in this one. KS is a sweet 64-4 SU at home against non-conference opponents and 18-7-1 ATS vs winning teams. They're 4-0 ATS off a bye week and I like the fact that Big 12 opponents Okie State and W. Virginia hung tight with a top tier teams Fla State (ACC) and Alabama (SEC), respectively. I'm going to look for K State's defense to limit Nick Marshall and company and hold on for the cover. Auburn is a mere 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of more than three points off a non-conference game. K State the call.
Dr Bob
Tampa Bay (+6) 21 ATLANTA 25
The Bucs looked terrible in their first game against the Panthers and defensively did not look much better last week. So far this season, they have allowed two backup quarterbacks to post impressive numbers against them (Carolina QB Derek Anderson and Rams QB Austin Davis have averaged 220 yards at 6.8 yps against Tampa). They also lost both games. Their offense is a work in progress with new systems, a new QB and a number of new starters along the offensive line. I expect that they’ll have a hard time this week, travelling to Atlanta on a short week for the Thursday night game, especially as Atlanta is coming off of an embarrassing loss of their own and will look to bounce back at home.
The Bucs had problems with backup QB’s the past two weeks and now they will take a big step up in class facing Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White. This isn’t a good spot for the Bucs, and it isn’t a good match-up either. Especially with the possibility of DT Gerald McCoy not being available or limited in some way. The Bucs defensive ends have been battling injuries as well and if Tampa does not produce a pass rush, an improved Atlanta offense will be able to put up some points. The good news for the Bucs and their struggling offense is that the Atlanta defense has been even worse. Atlanta is allowing 473 yards at 6.8 yppl with problems against the run as well as the pass.
The Bucs qualify in a 23-3-1 situation and benefit from a negative 36-73-6 situation that plays against the Falcons but my ratings favor Atlanta in this spot by almost 7.5 points. I don’t have a real opinion either way in this one, but I’ll lean with the Bucs plus the points based on the situations.
Vegas Butcher
Los Angeles Dodgers -175
Cubs have swept the Reds in their last series, but prior to that they were 1-8 against TOR and PIT, both teams with top-5 lineups. The problem for the Cubs is that they’re just not very good offensively anymore. The big reason is due to Rizzo and Castro, their 2 best hitters, being out. Dodgers got embarrassed @ Colorado yesterday but this team is swinging the bats well right now. They have double-digits in hits in 6 of their last 9 games, and are averaging over 12 hits per game over this span. By comparison, Cubs only have 2 of their last 9 games with DD hits and are overall averaging just over 6 hits per. That’s a big gap. Of course the bigger reason for the play is that I’m fading Wada today. This is his 2nd time seeing this Dodgers lineup so the unfamiliarity factor is gone. Wada relies on his slider and changeup to keep hitters at bay as his fastball is a very mediocre pitch. Well, Dodgers rank top-5 against both of those pitches. In addition, Wada has been terrible lately, allowing 17 hits and 9 ER’s in his last 13.2 innings (3 starts). He has 7 K and 6 BB’s in that span. He has a 5.7 xFIP and 5.3 SIERA in these last few outings. I expect Greinke to dominate, Dodgers to continue hitting the ball well, and overall I love the chances of a ‘bounce back’ tonight. Dodgers are 43-22 (+15.6 U) off a loss and 44-31 (+11.5 U) on the road. This team is 8-2 this season as a road favorite in the -150 to -175 range, and I expect a win tonight.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 -130
Angels were celebrating late into the night yesterday after clinching the playoffs, so predictably they’re resting all of their key guys. The lineup doesn’t have even one regular starter in it. For Seattle, this is a big game actually. Oakland is in the process of losing to the Rangers once again, and a win by the Mariners tonight will put them only 1 game behind the A’s for the playoffs. Expect Seattle and Hernandez to play hard, as I don’t expect them to play down to their competition due to the importance of the game.
Jeff Scott Sports
Atlanta/Tampa Bay Under 47.5: The Bucs offense has been very bad for a while now and I don't see it getting much better in this one, even though they are facing a bad Falcons defense. Josh McCown is not a very good QB and after the Falcons allowed 170 yards on the ground to Cincinnati last week you can bet that Tampa Bay will look to just pound Doug Martin right at Atlanta here. That will shorten the game, plus keep the Atlanta offense on the sidelines. That Atlanta offense is explosive, and that's all the more reason to shorten the game, plus this Tampa Bay defense is not bad at all and they can get pressure on Matt Ryan, which is a way to rattle him. Hard to see many if any Tampa Bay being played above 47 points and I certainly don't see this as one of them.