Wunderdog
Phoenix at Los Angeles
Pick: Phoenix +8
The Phoenix Mercury had trouble keeping their key players on the court this season. They lost 35 games from starters, but now appear to be as healthy as ever. It had the effect of making them a streaky team, as they went a stretch winning eight of nine, and closed the season playing some of their best basketball at 9-4 in their last 13. The Los Angeles Sparks were a tough out at home this season, as they finished with a 15-2 mark on their home court. But remember, one of the two losses came at the hands of this Phoenix team 90-84. Phoenix also beat the Sparks by 16 points at home when scoring 97. The bottom line is that those wins were when Phoenix was streaking good, as they are right now as well, so I think this line is too strong here on LA. Diana Turasi went for 32, and 34 points in those two wins, so she is capable of keeping Phoenix in touch here. The Sparks closed at 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference often laying too much, as is the case here. Take the points and play on Phoenix.
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -123
The New York Yankees (80-72) still have a lot to play for as they trail the Texas Rangers by 2.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They came from 3-0 down to win 4-3 yesterday to save their season and give them some momentum heading into tonight.
Hiroki Kuroda remains one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. Kuroda has gone 11-11 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.134 WHIP for the Yankees this season. He'll be up against Todd Redmond, who is 3-2 with a 4.10 ERA in 11 starts and three relief appearances for Toronto.
Kuroda is 4-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto. The Yankees are 10-4 in Kuroda's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 4-1 in Kuroda's last five starts as a favorite.
New York has gone 16-5 in its last 21 games as a favorite, and 4-1 in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last nine home games, and 1-6 in their last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Yankees Thursday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +3 +112 over PHILLY
Chip Kelley’s offense looked unstoppable in Week 1 but we were quick to point out that it was an offense that had never been seen before and therefore the Redskins could not prepare for it. As it turns out, Washington’s defense is proving to be one of the league’s worst so far. Furthermore, that “great offense” could not keep pace with the visiting Chargers last week. This week, on a short week no less, this rookie coach will now have three days to prepare for a great defense against a veteran coach with huge motivation that knows these Eagles better than himself.
Bringing in Andy Reid raised expectations for the Chiefs offense but little did we know that it would make the defense second only to the Seahawks in points allowed. This is a big test this week since the previous road game went well in Jacksonville but they are not being touted as the hot new offense in the NFL. However, last week, K.C.’s defense held the capable Dallas offense to just 16 points overall and just six points after the first quarter. The Chiefs forced Dallas to abandon the running game completely because the ‘Boys could not move forward on the ground. The Eagles will present new problems but Reid does know what his opponent is capable of and exactly which one will do it while Philly Chip knows nothing about the Chiefs. Alex Smith is not terrible, not bad, and maybe good. Game Manager good. He has not only thrown for two scores in both games but he's starting to run more. Against the Cowboys, Smith took off eight times and gained 57 yards for a career high. It adds a nice element to the offense and a new wrinkle for opposing defenses to consider. Alex Smith knows how to win and rarely has a bad game. Smith now faces a team that has allowed over 320 yards to both opponents. The Chiefs offense hasn’t gotten in gear yet but that figures to change here because Philly’s defense is horrible.
As the media hypes up Chip Kelly for being an offensive innovator, they seemed to forget that you have to play defense too. The problem with the Eagles offense is, when it succeeds, it’s off the field in two minutes and the defense is sent back out. When it fails, the defense is back out in 30 seconds. This ain’t the Pac 10, Chipper and while the Eagles are a fun and entertaining team to watch, they are a bad team to spot points with because the defense can’t get off the field and that offense is going to look worse week by week as top teams and defensive coordinators make adjustments. We get the better team, the much better defense, a veteran coach that has prepped many times for every situation and we also get to take back some points with juice. We’ll gladly get in line for that.
Pass NCAAF
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +168 over DETROIT
The price here on the Mariners is appealing enough to make a wager. The Tigers have dropped three of Doug Fister’s past four games and over that stretch, the soft tossing right-hander has walked nine batters while striking out 14. Fister has already tossed 194.2 innings this season after throwing just 162 last year and all that wear and tear may be taking a toll. Over his past two home starts against Oakland and K.C., Fister has been tagged for 21 hits in just 12.2 innings. Over his last 32 frames, Fister is sporting an unacceptable 1.67 WHIP. Fister comes in with a BAA of .281 on the season and no matter how you break down his numbers, he’s just too risky to be spotting a price like this.
James Paxton is worth riding. For a 24-year old rookie, Paxton has the poise of a 10-year veteran. He also has some solid skills. He’s made just two starts since his call-up and was outstanding in both of them, holding the Rays and Cardinals to a combined six hits in 12 innings. Paxton is coming off a six-inning, two hit shutout in St. Louis. Paxton uses a three-pitch mix, all of which flash plus, to attack hitters in any count. His fastball sits in the mid-90s while his curveball is his most dominant breaking pitch and is used to generate strikeouts. His change-up shows good fade and is used in any count. The tall lefty has continued to post high K rates and decent command throughout his minor league career. Paxton works off establishing his fastball early in counts to set up the curve, but with all three pitches capable of getting a strikeout, it keeps hitters guessing and contributes to his success. He’s been working low in the strike zone and is inducing groundballs at an elite 57% clip so far. Paxton is in tough today but he was also in tough against both the Cardinals and Rays and thrived. His confidence is high, his ability is higher and at this price, the risk is worth the reward.
St. Louis @ COLORADO
Roy Oswalt has taken the loss in each of his six appearances this season. It is safe to say that he no longer has the stuff to get MLB hitters out. Last season, his 39% hit rate seemed like an anomaly, yet he has followed it up this season with a 47% hit rate. It’s hard to even put that number into perspective but Oswalt has allowed 40 hits in just 25 innings for a BAA of .360 and a WHIP of 1.75. He takes on the best road offense in the NL in the friendliest hitting environment in MLB. Not a good combination for a pitcher struggling to get hitters out. The Cardinals may go over this number on their own today.
The Rockies are almost always good for three or more runs at home and they figure to get at least that today. Michael Wacha was called up in late May and after three starts was sent back down. Upon his August 10 recall, Wacha made a mediocre start, a long relief appearance and five shorter outings. In 15.2 IP, he allowed five ER (over two of the outings), 13 H (nine in the same two outings), and five BB while tossing 23 K. He followed that up with three consecutive quality starts against Cincinnati, San Diego and Seattle. No question that Wacha has a high ceiling but the kid is also a little too green right now to maintain such a low ERA. He’s still walking too many batters (10 BB over his past 24 innings) and he’s benefitted greatly from a high 85% strand rate. Coors Field takes no prisoners and is not usually friendly to pitchers that issues walks. Afternoon games in Colorado also tend to be higher scoring and that sure doesn’t hurt our cause.
Big Kat Sports
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Take: Baltimore Orioles +125
The Baltimore Orioles will look to finish off a sweep of the Boston Red Sox when the two teams meet tonight at FenwayPark in Boston. The Orioles have had success against the Sox all season, posting a 9-6 record and pretty much control their own destiny for as they have a four game series with the Rays on tap this weekend before closing out the season with games at home against the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Here are a few trends that have us on the road team tonight in Boston.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Orioles are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Orioles are 8-1 in Tillman’s last 9 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Orioles are 12-3 in Tillman’s last 15 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Red Sox are 0-4 in Lackey’s last 4 Thursday starts.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Mark Wegner behind home plate.
Pair those numbers with the fact that the Orioles are 14-5 in the last 19 meetings in Boston and that they are 5-0 in Tillman’s last 5 starts vs. Red Sox and we’ll take the plus money in a game that we had as a pick when we made our numbers. The value is there tonight with the O’s and we’ll look for them to complete the 3 game sweep over the Sox.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Texas Rangers ended a seven-game losing streak with a 7-1 win Tuesday night at Tampa but lost again last night 4-3, in 12 innings. The Rangers are now a woeful 3-13 in September and last nights defeat caused them to fall one game back of the Rays for the ALs top wild card spot. Texas hardly has any margin of error in holding on to the No.2 wild card spot, as Cleveland is just a half-game back, Baltimore only one game back plus even the NYY and KC haven?t given up hope at 2 1/2 games back.
Texas and Tampa Bay complete their four-game series tonight, with Yu Darvish squaring off against Matt Moore. Darvish ranks third in the AL in ERA (2.79) but is a modest 12-9 on the season. He?s allowed only 132 hits in 193.2 innings plus owns a 256-68 KW ratio. Looking deeper we find that the Rangers are just 14-15 in his 29 starts in 2013, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$1,425, which ranks third-worst among all MLB pitchers. He enters this start winless in his last six outings (also with a career-worst four-start losing streak / team is 0-6!), all coming despite a 3.38 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 40 innings over those six outings!
Meanwhile, Matt Moore?s 3.11 ERA, 103 hits allowed in 136 innings plus a 129-66 KW ratio has earned him a 15-3 record with the Rays, despite him missing more than a month with elbow soreness. Even more impressively, the Rays are 19-5 in his starts, or plus-$1,195 vs the moneyline, 3rd-best among all starters.
Darvish has been on the losing side of back-to-back 1-0 defeats in his last two starts and now has lost FOUR, 1-0 games this year. That hasnt occurred since 1989, when it happened to the Dodgers Orel Hershiser. Texas has the most road wins in the majors (43) but is just 14-19 overall against AL East opponents and the teams September swoon, as well as Darvishs bad luck, has me siding with the Rays in this one.
Tony Karpinski
Clemson vs. NC State
Play: Under 66
CLemson's defense is under-rated and they are very good. Last year when these 2 teams played the total was set at 66 and the final score was 62-48 which equals 110 points. Yes, it would be very easy to assume this is a 38-35 game or even higher, based on not only last years' game but the very fact that Clemson is much better on defense it was their highest scoring game of the year and again this year the total is set at 65.5 and a primetime TV game with extra TV timeouts and rest for the players, I see a much lower scoring game.
Freddy Wills
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees
Yankees won a big game last night and the offense seemed to have turned the corner a bit with 4 runs in an inning. Sending Hiroki Kuroda to the mound on extra rest has done wonders for them and that's why I'm backing the Yankees tonight. When Kuroda is on 4 days rest he's simply average, but when he's on 5 days rest which he's been 14 times this year he posts a 2.25 ERA with 12 of 14 quality starts. I'll back him against a depleted Blue Jays line up as the Yankees have won 35 of the last 51 meetings.
Dave Price
NY Yankees -123
Look for the Yankees to continue their dominance of the Blue Jays this evening. The Yanks have won 14 of 18 against the Jays this season, and they are 5-1 in Kuroda's last 6 starts versus Toronto. It is also worth noting that the Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite, 4-1 in Kuroda's last 5 starts as a favorite and 10-4 in his last 14 starts versus a team with a losing record. Toronto has dropped 7 of its last 9 at home and is 2-5 in Redmond's last 7 starts. Take New York.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays +102
The Rays are showing value in the home dog role against a Texas club that has dropped 13 of 16. Additionally, the Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite and 0-6 in Darvish's last 6 starts. The Rays are 24-11 in their last 35 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 21-5 in Moore's last 26 starts. Bet the Rays.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Kansas City Under 51: Two Eagles games so far and I have played the Under in both and have lost both. Let's hope that 3rd time is a charm. Andy Ried knows what he's up against here in facing the high flying Eagles, and he also knows that the best way to combat their offense is to keep that offense on the sidelines with long time consuming drives. The Chiefs do have the type of offense to pull that off as they have a strong ground attack and a QB that protects the ball and likes to play the ball control offense. Also keeping the ball away from the Eagles offense will keep a very solid KC defense fresher throughout the game. Yes the Eagles offense is a fast paced one, but they don't always score and I see them as having fewer chances at scoring in this one. The UNDER is 21-5-1 in KC's last 27 games on grass and I see that trend continuing here with a game that should be played in the lower 40's at best.
Clemson/ NC State UNDER 66: The Clemson Tigers are highly ranked this year and most of that is due to their high powered offense, but what makes this Clemson team more complete this year is their improved defense. They may not have looked improved in the game vs Georgia, but they did make key plays when need and this NC State offense is not nearly as good as the Bulldogs offense. NC State has averaged 493 ypg so far, but La Tech and Richmond don't have the defense that the Tigers have. Clemson can score a ton on offense, but NC State defense is not that bad and it is better than that of Georgia. Clemson will still get their points, but they should be held to under 40 points, while NC State should be good for no more than 21. 35-21 sounds about right. KEY TRENDS--- The UNDER is 15-1 in NC State's last 16 Thursday night games, while the UNDER is 8-2 in Clemson's last 10 Thursday night games.
Dr. Bob
Clemson (-13½) 37 NC STATE 28
Clemson’s 38-35 home win over Georgia to start the season wasn’t really that impressive given that the Tigers were outgained 469 yards at 6.3 yards per play to 551 yards at 8.0 yppl by the Bulldogs in that game. Clemson’s defense is still not good enough to list them among the elite teams in the nation and I rate that unit at just 0.3 yards per play better than average, which is an improvement over last season’s sub-par stop unit. NC State won’t have much success stopping Clemson from scoring their usual 35 points plus, but the Wolfpack have an improved offense this season with quarterback Pete Thomas averaging 7.4 yards per pass play (although against teams that would allow 7.3 yppl to an average quarterback). Clemson is an overrated team and my ratings favor the Tigers by just 10 points in this game and conference road favorites off a bye week are just 67-105-2 ATS if they won their previous 2 or more games before their bye and are visiting a team with revenge. I like the dog in this game.
Craig Davis
Call me a glutton for punishment, but I'm going right back to the Yankees as your free play of the day, thinking that Hiroki Kuroda can get the job done vs. Toronto.
I'm looking at the talent up and down the Yankees lineup and still in disbelief that this team isn't at least the front runner for the Wild Card. Shoot, they are still three games behind Tampa and Texas for the top Wild Card spot and still looking up at Cleveland and Baltimore.
They have to pass at least three of those four teams to even have a shot to get into the post-season... and even then they have to win one game against someone's ace to earn a spot in the real playoffs.
But that being said, their schedule plays out pretty nicely for Yankees fans down the stretch, with home games against San Francisco and Tampa before hitting the road to finish the season at lowly Houston. If they don't at least sweep the Giants and Astros, they likely don't have a shot.
So tonight they must win against a team under .500 and somehow, through two games, they have split the series with the Jays.
Kuroda is only 11-11 on the season despite his 3.13 ERA. Granted, much of the reason for his low ERA is a July that saw him allow only two earned runs the entire month... beating some of the best pitchers in baseball.
His 2-1 record in four starts vs. Toronto this year also has me excited, as I believe he gets back on track tonight and gives his team another workman-like performance.
Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Thursday's freebie is the Tampa Bay Rays with Moore over the Texas Rangers with Yu Darvish.
Texas blew their chance for the four game split last night when they dropped the game to Tampa in the 12th inning, as the Rangers have now lost 8 of their last 9 games.
Tampa meanwhile is now on a 5-2 upswing, and they do have 15 game winner Matt Moore on the hill in the series finale.
Moore is 1-0 his last 3 starts with an ERA under 1.00, and the Rays have been able to win 21 of his last 26 starts.
Compare that to Darvish who cannot seem to get any support for his cause when he takes the ball to the hill, as the Texas hurler is 0-4 his last 6 starts, but he has gotten no support his last two times to the hill, as he has allowed just 2 earned runs to score in his 14 innings of work, but has been on the short side of a pair of 1-0 finals!
It is a free-fall for Ron Washington's team, and I do not see things changing tonight.
Take Tampa as the small home favorite to add on another loss to Texas' epic September collapse.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Brad Wilton
My Thursday night comp play will be to lay the road wood with the Yankees as they close out their season series with the Blue Jays.
New York looked all but dead last night, then a 4 run 8th inning coupled with a Mariano Rivera save (stranding runners on 2nd & 3rd in the 9th), lets the Yankees live another day.
With Hiroki Kuroda certainly struggling as we head into the last 10 games of the season, I am just looking for a quality start that gives the Yanks a boost before they head back to the Bronx for their final home stand of the year.
Kuroda will work against Todd Redmond, and Redmond did record a win over the Yankees the last time he faced them, working 5-plus innings of 2 run ball back on August 28th.
The Yankees playoff chances don't look good, but at least they still have a chance which is more than you can say for the Blue Jays.
I will lay it with Kuroda and the Yanks to leave Canada with the "W".
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES