Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday September, 20

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers vs. Washington
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With the win in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, the Nationals had a chance to clinch a berth in the postseason with a win in the nightcap but their comeback fell just short. Therefore they can clinch tonight and while it will not be a big celebration since the division is still up for grabs, it will be a special time for the first postseason in Washington and the first for the franchise since the 1981 Expos. Washington is just 5-6 in its last 11 games so it needs to gain some momentum for the stretch run as the Braves remain just five games back in the National League East. The Nationals are 31-12 in their last 43 games as favorites and they turn to Ross Detwiler tonight. He has been pitching extremely solid as he has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts since the start of August and overall he has a 3.16 ERA through 24 starts and six relief appearances including a 2.67 ERA in 13 home starts with the Nationals going 10-3 in those games. He tossed a quality start in his only game against the Dodgers this year in Los Angeles and the Nationals are now 5-0 in Detwiler's last five starts as a favorite between -110 and -150. Los Angeles, which has dropped nine of its last 14 games, is two games behind St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot with only 13 games remaining. The Dodgers have struggled to score runs in their losses as they have tallied two runs or fewer in their last seven defeats so poor run production has aided in the recent collapse. They got back to .500 on the road with the win in the second game of the double-header last night but they are 3-7 in their last 10 games as underdogs between +110 and +150. After a very strong start to the season, things have started going the other way for Chris Capuano and this can definitely be related to fatigue. He is up to 185 innings pitched which was the same amount he tossed last season and the same thing happened where he went south in a hurry down the stretch. After today, it will make it the most innings he has tossed since 2006 so he is very likely feeling it. He is coming off his shortest outing of the season and he is 0-2 with a 6.26 ERA over his last five starts.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Milwaukee
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The Brewers' (76-72) Mike Fiers (9-8, 3.23 ERA) is set to square off against the Pirates' (74-74) Wandy Rodriguez (11-13, 3.65 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Fiers gave up four runs off six hits over five frames in a 7-3 setback to the Mets on Friday; he struck out four and walked two. The rookie has hit a bit of a rough patch, but has been solid for the most part overall this year. Note that Fiers has been particularly effective on the road this season, going 5-3 with a very respectable 3.48 ERA.
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Rodriguez gave up three runs over six frames to beat the Cubs on Saturday; he allowed nine hits and served up one walk to go along with four K's. Rodriguez has shown flashes of brilliance at times for his new club, but has looked extremely pedestrian in others.
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With yesterday's loss, the Pirates are now 4.5 games behind the Cards for the second wild-card spot. Pittsburgh continues its slide down the proverbial crapper, having gone just 5-14 since the end of August.
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The Brewers are arguably the hottest team in the league right now, getting it done both on the mound, and at the plate; with yesterday's 3-1 victory, they've now won four straight and 22 of 28.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I believe the momentum that Milwaukee has created for itself is enough of a factor to tip the scales in its favor; great line value; consider laying this short price!

Chris ElliottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texas Rangers (87-60) will give the ball to right hander Yu Darvish on Thursday night when they face off with the Los Angeles Angels (81-67). Darvish has a record of 15-9 on the year with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. In his last 5 road starts he has given up 13 runs in 28.2 innings for an ERA of 4.09. The Rangers are 4-6 in his last 10 road starts.
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Former AL CY Young winner Zach Greinke will toe the rubber for the Halos on Thursday. Greinke is 14-5 on the year with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has been excellent recently, going 3-0 with a 1.70 ERA in his last 5 starts. Los Angeles has a record of 7-3 in his last 10 starts at Angel Stadium.
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The Rangers came away with a 6-2 win on Wednesday night vs. the Angels. They are 5-5 in their last 10 overall and 5-5 in their last 10 on the road.
The Angels are trying desperately to chase down the final wild card spot in the AL. They are 6-4 in their last 10 overall and 7-3 in their last 10 at home.
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Both Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre are questionable for this game for Texas. Look for another solid outing from Greinke on Thursday as the Angels come away with the win at home. Take “Los Angeles” to win.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pirates are the beneficiaries of a road favored play against system that applies to the Brewers here today. The Pirates are 4 games over .500 this season as a home dog from +100 to +125. The Brewers have dropped 8 of 11 on Thursday. They have Fiers making the start and he has struggled to a 6.06 era in his last 3 starts. Wandy Rodriguez goes for the Pirates and he has a 1/83 era over his last 3 starts and has allowed just 3 earned runs in 12 home innings this season vs Milwaukee. Look for the Pirates to make the Brewers walk the plank here today.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh PiratesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning record and face a hot pitcher in lefty Wandy Rodriguez (3.65 ERA for the season), who is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA his last three starts. Rodriguez has now made 10 starts for the Pirates and he definitely got off to a slow start with losses in four of his first five decisions. That said, he has picked up victories in three of his last four starts. The Pirates are 25-12 in their last 37 home games vs. a right-handed starter and face Mike Fiers, who is 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA his last three starts. Play the Pirates!

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
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Rangers-Angels series rubber match tonight, and it's huge for the home team with their precarious playoff positioning. Texas is shorthanded, and I give Greinke an edge over Darvish, so the Angels are the choice.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dodgers / Nationals Under 8
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Chris Capuano and Ross Detwiler face off on Thursday night, as the two teams complete their series. Under umpire Mike Winters, who has been behind the plate for 20 unders in 29 games this season, will be calling balls and strikes as two pitchers who don't issue very many walks will take on two offenses that don't light up the scoreboard. The Dodgers scored eight runs in yesterday's doubleheader, bringing their total in September to 47 in 16 games, an average of just 2.94 runs per game. The Nationals are scoring about 4.5 runs per game at home this season, but the big story for them, as it has been all year, is pitching. The Nats pitching staff is allowing just 3.6 runs per game. Both Capuano and Detwiler should enjoy Mike Winters's strike zone and will be focused on a low-scoring affair.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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CAROLINA -2 -110 over N.Y. Giants
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Giants were forced to exert a lot of energy in win over Tampa last Sunday after putting themselves in some early holes. Now the G-men must travel on a short week without the services of RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WR Hakeem Nicks, who have both been ruled out. RT David Diehl is also unlikely to go. That’s a trio of impact players that can’t easily be replaced.
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Carolina got back on track by utilizing its potent ground game in win over rival Saints and if smart, will stick to the same philosophy here. While the league continues to flourish from television revenue, we’re not so sure that the Giants won’t be out of sync having to play an awkward Wednesday league opener, 11 days rest until Sunday and short turnaround 'til Thursday set in order to accommodate TV obligations. No bets.

Colorado/SAN FRAN over 8 +100
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Every matinée game that Barry Zito has started this season at AT&T Park has sailed over the total. The opportunity arises yet again and we’re not about to miss it. As an open-air park by the Bay, this venue turns into a hitter’s paradise during afternoon games. Early weather reports out of San Francisco shows the wind blowing out to centerfield at 13 MPH.FOR REE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In four afternoon games at home since the all-star break, Zito has allowed 27 hits and 19 runs in 20 frames. In all four of those games, the winning team scored at least nine runs.
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For the Rockies, Jorge De La Rosa makes his season debut. Colorado is just looking for bodies to get them through these final games. De La Rosa had Tommy John surgery last June. That was the last time he pitched in the majors. His results have been spotty during his rehab outings with an ugly 6.64 ERA with nine walks in 20.1 innings. De La Rosa is not being thrown out to the mound to win a ball game. He’s being evaluated and with the Giants scoring plenty of runs for weeks now the evaluation is very likely going to be a short one.
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Toronto +219 over N.Y. YANKEES
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Despite sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader, there are ongoing issues surrounding the Yankees. Against Ricky Romero and his 5.72 ERA, New York scored once in the nightcap. Against Henderson Alvarez and his 7.30 ERA over his last five games, they scored three times in the opener. That’s four runs in two games covering 13 innings against two pitchers that have struggled miserably all season. For a veteran team, playing three games in two days can’t be beneficial.
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Phil Hughes has a 3.96 ERA on the year and over his last three starts he’s posted a 3.44 ERA. Don’t trust in it. Hughes has a decent strikeout rate and good control but a 28%/52% groundball/fly-ball rate is one of the more disturbing splits in the league. Those stats explain many of Hughes’ poor outings and until his batted ball profile changes, more can be expected.
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We’d like to see Aaron Laffey’s strikeout rate higher but he has a 50%/31% GB/FB profile and that alone makes him worthy of taking back a tag like this one. His numbers aren’t pretty but he’s also been the victim of bad luck and poor run support. Nonetheless, this isn’t about wagering on Laffey. It’s about value and fading the overpriced Yankees in this unfavorable spot (they have the Rays and Orioles on deck) is where that value lies.

MLB Predictions

Brewers / Pirates Under 7.5

The first two meetings of this series have seen totals of 6 and 4 with Milwaukee winning both and making the Wild Card race very interesting. The Pirates have gone 7-20 over their last 27 games pretty much falling out of the race. The Pirates are just 2-10 in their last 12 games and have scored 3 or fewer runs in 9 of those 12 games. Tonight's starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Mike Fiers who is 9-8 on the season with a 3.23 ERA. He has fallen off a bit lately, but his last time out against Pittsburgh he went 6.2 innings giving up 3 earned runs with 10 strikeouts. Against a struggling Pittsburgh team I think Fiers will pitch well this afternoon. Wandy Rodriguez is on the mound for Pittsburgh and he is 11-13 on the season with a 3.65 ERA. Over his last 5 starts he has an ERA of 1.95 and he is 3-1 over that span. Struggling to score runs the UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Pirates last 11 overall, 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games, and 6-0 in their last 6 as an underdog. Fiers can be a very good pitcher, Rodriguez is pitching very well lately, and the Pirates can't score runs. Take the UNDER this afternoon.

DAVID BANKS

Giants / Panthers Over 50.5

Two high-profile quarterbacks perform in on a national stage Thursday night when Eli Manning and the New York Giants (1-1, 0-2 ATS) visit Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC at 8:20 ET on NFL Network. Manning is fresh off of an amazing 510-yard passing performance in a come-from-behind win vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while Newton guided the Panthers to an upset of Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Unfortunately for the Giants, they now appear to be at a severe disadvantage personnel-wise.

Manning may need to pass for 400 yards in this contest given that running back Ahmad Bradshaw left Sunday's game with a sprained neck and is now confirmed out. Granted, Andre Brown filled in admirably in the 41-34 win by rushing for 71 yards on 13 carries with a touchdown in relief of Bradshaw, but he is still unproven as an every-down back, so the Giants probably have no qualms about putting this game in Manning's hands. This is especially true considering that Brees passed for 325 yards vs. the Carolina secondary Sunday. However, the abnormally long Giants' injury report may not leave Manning many receiving options to throw too. In addition to the running back Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, who had 199 receiving yards Sunday, is out after aggravating his previously broken foot and the number three receiver Domenik Hixon is also out with a concussion. That leaves Victor Cruz, who had 179 receiving yards including an 80-yard touchdown reception Sunday, as the go-to guy this week, and he is now expected to attract constant double coverage. To top things off, tackle David Diehl is also out with a knee injury, which could lead to offensive line issues.

Newton was victorious vs. the Saints, but was the running game that keyed the win as the Panthers rushed for a whopping 219 yards after being unable to run a lick at Tampa Bay on opening week. Newton did lead the ground attack with 71 rushing yards, but DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were not far behind with 69 and 51 respectively. Newton was also extremely efficient when he did pass the ball, completing 14 of his 20 passes for 253 yards, grading out to a whopping average of 12.7 yards per attempt! Steve Smith was on the receiving end of 104 of those yards on just three receptions. Now while the defense did allow Brees to pass for 325 yards, he required 49 passes to do so and Carolina actually ranks 10th in the NFL in defensive passing average through two weeks, yielding only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. All of the Giants' injuries should allow that pass defense to key on Cruz all game and dare the likes of Martellus Bennett and Ramses Barden to try and beat the Panthers. Also, Carolina defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have been putting good pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the first two weeks even when not getting sacks, and that duo can take advantage of Diehl's absence.

The 'over' has gone 4-0 on the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams, although that could possibly be in jeopardy here with the New York offense so banged up.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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The Mets have been poor at home but Jeremy Hefner has pitched well against the Phillies in his only start he is 1-0 with four strikeout and now walks allowing just three runs on six hits. The opposing pitcher for Philadelphia is Tyler Cloyd who has made a start against the Mets and pitched OK by lost as he allowed too many base runners. Look for the duel of the young pitchers to go to Hefner as the Mets' bats awaken for him. Play NY Mets

Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego +105FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite losing the first 2 games of this series, San Diego is still on a 19-8 run. Arizona is dreaming if they think they're going to catch a Wild Card berth because of 3 consecutive wins. That positive momentum all changes today when they send Skaggs to the mound. For the season he has a 5.55 ERA. Skaggs is off a start in which he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, in 4 IP. Far prefer the slants of Richard. San Diego has won his last 5 starts over which time he has posted a 2.91 ERA. Richard is 5-0 vs. Arizona, including 2-0 this year with a 2.31 ERA. Love the value at this underdog price!

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies -119
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The Philadelphia Phillies have made an amazing push over the last month to get to 75-74 on the season and just four games back of St. Louis for the final wild-card spot in the National League. They have won 10 of their last 13, and after a 9th inning comeback victory last night, this team clearly has a lot of confidence.
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The New York Mets have packed it in. They have lost 10 of their last 11 to drop to 66-82 on the season. The Mets are 4-24 at home since July 8, and have plated three runs or fewer in a team-record 15 straight home games since a 6-5 win over Atlanta on Aug. 12. The previous major league club to score three runs or less in more consecutive home games was Seattle, which went 16 in a row in 2010.
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Rookie Tyler Cloyd has been decent through four starts, going 1-1 with a 4.95 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 20 innings. He has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in two starts away from home. He'll be up against Jeremy Hefner, who is 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA in five home starts.
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The Phillies are 28-13 in their last 41 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Philly is 5-0 in its last 5 vs. NL East opponents. The Mets are 20-43 in their last 63 overall. New York is 10-28 in its last 38 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Phillies Thursday.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nats have the edge this evening with Ross Detwiler (8-6, 3.33 ERA) on the mound. He has been sensational at home with a 2.82 ERA through 13 starts. The Nationals are 10-4 in Detwiler's last 14 starts, 7-1 in his last 8 home starts, 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 LA's Chris Capuano (11-10, 3.60 ERA) has been solid on the season, but he has been far better at home. He has a 4.30 ERA through 15 road starts. He has lost each of his 3 career starts at Washington. Bet the Nats.