Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 22,2011

Scott Spreitzer

New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

Chris Capuano owns a hefty ERA & WHIP against the Redbirds in his career and his team certainly is struggling. The Mets have won just 2 of their last 10 games and they're nine innings away from being on the wrong end of a 3-game sweep. Capuano's numbers along with the fact that the Mets have won just 16 of 58 as an underdog in the +1.51 to +2.00 price range don't exactly fill Mets' backers with confidence. Meanwhile, St. Louis has been on a serious heater, winning 12 of their last 14 games and pulling within 1 1/2 games of the Atlanta Braves in the NL wildcard race. Jake Westbrook gets the starting nod today and he owns a 1.20 WHIP in two starts against the Mets. The righty owns a 3.20 ERA in his last four starts. And while his WHIP looks high in those outings, it should be noted that most of the damage was done in a start against the powerful Phillies. The Mets are not to be confused with Philadelphia. The Cards are 23-9 in their last 32 at home against the Mets. More of the same in this one. I'm backing St. Louis on Thursday afternoon.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Let's go with the Angels again tonight as they have now made the AL Wild Card chase a three-horse race. Tied with the Rays, 2.5 games behind Boston, LA probably needs to win out and they have a great chance at winning Thursday with Ervin Santana as he looks to bounce back from a pair of unusually subpar outings. Santana has an 8-0 team start record in his career if he allowed 5 or more runs in his two previous outings. Last time vs. Toronto, Santana threw a complete game, allowing only one run.

Play on: LA Angels

Matt Fargo

Orioles vs. Tigers
Play: Over 9

Detroit returns home following a 45-36 road record this season, its best since 2006. The win last night left the Tigers tied with the Texas in the race for homefield advantage in the American League Division Series so the final homestand remains important. The Tigers send Jacob Turner to the hill and he is making just his third start of the season. In his last start on September 1st, he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings and there is not much reason to believe he will be much better tonight against the red hot Orioles. Baltimore did a good job of playing spoiler as it took two of three from Tampa Bay, two of three from Los Angeles and three of four from Boston. The Orioles scored 28 runs in the four-game series and have a great shot to keep the offense hot. Zach Britton takes the hill and he is coming off a quality start last time out but those have been hard to come by of late. Only four of his 13 road starts have been quality outings and the over is 9-3-1 in those games.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels fit a solid system that has won 18 of 22 times and plays on road favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs with 5+ men left on base and no errors, vs an opponent off a 5 + run home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs with 5+ men left on base and no more than 1 error. The Angles have Santana going tonight and he has allowed just 5 runs in 24 innings vs Toronto. The Jays have Alvarez going tonight and he has an elevated 4.40 home era in his limited starts. The Angels are averaging close to 6 runs per game as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. Look for the Angles to win this one.

Nick Parsons

Rangers @ Athletics
PICK: Over

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

Coming into Wednesday the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in 89 of 146 (with eight "pushes").

Colby Lewis (13-10, 4.45 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Lewis is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits over 5 2/3's innings of work; he struck out seven, and was once again the beneficiary of a ton of run support in his team's 7-6 victory over the Mariners last Saturday.

That's now the fifth time this season that he's given up six or more runs in a game.

In the other dugout: Coming into Wednesday the Athletics have seen the total go "over" the number in 77 of 140 (with 14 "pushes").

Trevor Cahill (11-14, 4.31 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Cahill gave up three runs and nine hits in 6 2/3's innings of work in the A's 3-1 loss to the Tigers on Friday.

Cahill is 6-8 with a 3.15 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

Bottom line: Also note that Lewis's ERA balloons to 5.42 in "day games" this season.

Neither starter has been overly dominant of late; why not place a wager on the "over" in this contest?!

BIG AL

Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros

The Rockies pretty much threw in the towel on the season about a week ago, and since then they've just been going through the motions as the team that only two seasons ago was a strong playoff contender has lost it's last seven games, all at home. They may be shutting down the likes of Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez for the season very soon as both of them are ailing right now and there's no reason to take risks with their offensive stars at this point. As is often the case this time of year with two teams that aren't playing for the post-season, two rookie starters will take the mound in Colorado's righthander Alex White and Houston's righthander Henry Sosa. At this point, you'd have to give the advantage to Sosa, who although he pitches for the team with the worst record in baseball, has been one of the Astros most consistent starters over the past month. Despite an overall record of just 2-5 and an ERA of 4.74, Sosa has thrown quality starts in four of his last five outings and all but one of those have been on the road. White has been very susceptible to the long ball, as the youngster has allowed 14 home runs this season and 11 in his five starts since joining the Rockies at the end of July. Although the Rockies have won all three previous meetings this year, the Astros are 9-6 in the last 15 going back to 2009. Take Houston.

DAVID CHAN

Rockies @ Astros
PICK: Over

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

Alex White (3-2, 6.75 ERA) gets the start for the Rockies.

White got rocked his last time out, giving up six runs off nine hits over just 5 2/3's frames of work; his team went on to lose 9-1 to the Giants last Friday.

White has now given up 11 long-balls and has a deplorable 8.46 ERA in five starts since coming over from the Tribe in the Jimenez trade.

The last time he faced the Astros he gave up five runs in six frames and was lucky to walk away with a no-decision.

White will be opposed by Henry Sosa (2-5, 4.74 ERA) who gave up two runs over six frames of work in a loss to the Cubs last Saturday.

Sosa had lost his previous two starts coming into that contest and is just 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

A couple of "gas-cans" going head to head on Thursday night; you may want to consider a wager on the OVER in this one!

Jim Feist

Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are playing hard for Buck Showhalter down the stretch, sticking it to the Red Sox the last series. One of their best arms goes in Zach Britton (10-10, 4.28 ERA), who has excellent control. The Tigers have never faced him before. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the American League Central and 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series. They face a Detroit team that has already clinched and goes with Jacob Turner (7.45 ERA), a spot starter. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Play the Orioles!

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +173 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals are hot as hell and suddenly they’re just a game back of the Braves and they have a much more favorable schedule than Atlanta. Having said that, the Mets would love to make life miserable for the Redbirds and Jake Westbrook as a –185 favorite over Chris Capuano is preposterous. Westbrook is 4-5 at home with a 5.59 ERA. He’s allowed 198 hits in 175 IP with 68 walks and just 98 k’s. In his last start he walked five and struck out one. Westbrook is an extreme groundball pitcher and that keeps him employed. Other than that, his skills are awful and his chances of losing are greater than his chances of winning. The Cardinals are three games under .500 at home versus southpaws and will face one here in Chris Capuano. Over his last five starts covering 30 frames, Capuano has walked six and whiffed 32. He’s posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over that same span. He’s a way better option taking back a tag like this than Westbrook is laying one. Price is too good to pass up on. Play: N.Y. Mets +173 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco –103 over LOS ANGELES

It took 148 games for the Giants bats to wake up. They scored another eight runs last night and have now scored six or more in seven of their past 10 games. Over that stretch, the only three pitchers that held San Fran to three runs or less were Mat Latos, Cory Luebke and Clayton Kershaw. After exiting his Sept 11 start against these same Giants in the fifth inning, Hiroki Kuroda acknowledged that he is troubled by neck pain and soreness. That loss was Kuroda's second disaster in three outings. He’s pitched one game since and it was a decent one but it was at home against the anemic Pirates. Fact is, he’s 36 years old and logged a lot of inning this season and he’s not even 100%. Additionally, he’s the second best pitcher on the hill in this one and it’s not close. Madison Bumgarner has been one of the game's most dominant starters since the start of June. Four things we like in young starting pitcher's: - Elite control and command- emerging strikeout rate and a groundball bias profile. Bumgarner not only possesses all four, he excels in them all. The guy is the straight goods with a 1.04 ERA over his past five starts and his outstanding pitching is unlikely to be broken up by the Dodgers in a pitchers park. Play: San Francisco –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Houston Astros -120

The Astros starting pitcher Henry Sosa is 2-5 with an ERA of 4.74 in his eight starts with the Astros this season, but he has been pitching very well lately. Sosa has made five quality starts in his last six games and has an ERA of 3.71 in that span. Run support is usually the issue for the Astros pitchers, but I expect the Houston lineup to be able to provide Sosa with enough runs to win this game against Colorado's struggling starting pitcher Alex White. White was an ERA of 9.19 in his last three starts and has allowed eleven homeruns in his last five starts. Thats not a good stat when you are about to make a start at Minute Maid park that has very short homeruns down the lines. Play on Houston.

MLB PREDICTIONS

Seattle Mariners -103

The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series by a score of 5-4, and look to sweep the Twins who have lost 11 in a row and 16 of their last 17 games. Things are getting pretty embarrassing for the Twins, who were thought to be at least in a playoff race come September. Minnesota will send Anthony Swarzak to the mound, who is 2-5 this season as a starter with a 4.91 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average. In his last outing Swarzak went juts 1.2 innings against the Indians allowing 7 hits and 7 earned runs. He has allowed 17 earned runs over his last 4 starts. Blake Beaven will be on the mound for the Mariners, and is 5-5 on the year with a 3.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .276 opponents batting average. This play is a mostly a play against the Twins who can't seem to win, who have a pitcher that is struggling on the mound. The Twins are just 12-41 in their last 53 games overall, and 4-22 in their last 26 home games. The Twins are also winless in Swarzak's last 5 starts, and 1-9 in his last 10 home starts. Take note that the Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs a team with a home winning % off less than .400. The Mariners are 5-2 on the season against the Twins, and I look for them to finish off the sweep, as nothing seems to be going right for Minnesota. At such short odds anyone is worth a look against the Twins, and with the pitching match up we see this afternoon I'm backing the Mariners with confidence. Risking 2.06 units to pick up 2 units this afternoon.

Don Wallace Sports

North Carolina St +8

The Bearcats owned Akron on the ground, rushing for 164 yards and four TDs. Jameel Poteat led the way with 55 yards and one touchdown, while Isaiah Pead contributed with only 15 yards on six carries. Pead, who also found the end zone against Akron, has been the best back for coach Jones and rolls into this game with 257 yards on an amazing 9.5 yards per carry. Pead has also found the end zone four times already. It is hard to gauge the defense for Cincinnati. Two weeks ago Cincinnati was taken apart for 45 points in a loss to the Vol's, and the performance this past weekend is even more disconcerting. Akron came into Saturday's game with only three points in its first two contests, but the Zips managed to score 14 points against the Bearcats, and rolled up 17 first downs in the process. Nonetheless, at the same time Cincy scored three defensive touchdowns in the win and forced five turnovers overall. Maalik Bomar returned a fumble 54 yards for a score in the first quarter, while Dominique Battle and Camerron Cheatham returned interceptions 36 and 53 yards, respectively, for touchdowns. So far this unit is surrendering a generous 385.7 yards per game, but through three games, coach Jones' squad has been able to hold off opponents by collecting 13 takeaways. Two of the team's six interceptions have come from JK Schaffer, who is also leading the team with 19 tackles on the year. Schaffer and the rest of the secondary, which is allowing over 250.0 ypg through the air, will have its hands full against the Wolf Pack's Glennon, who looks to be improving every week. Cincinnati hash shown they are much better at home, but this will be the toughest opponent to come to Nippert Stadium thus far. NC State won three times on the road last year, but looked terrible outside of Raleigh in its lone road game to date. North Carolina St. should be able to overcome any road woes here and do enough to escape the Queen City with a win. NORTH CAROLINA ST. 34 CINCINNATI 31

Jack Jones

Houston Astros -113

No team has packed it in quite like the Colorado Rockies to end the season. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last seven games, getting outscored 19-49 in the process. Their seven-game skid is the longest by Colorado since an eight-game losing streak at the end of last season.

Colorado's chances of losing eight straight are very high with Alex White on the mound. White (2-2, 8.46 ERA) will face Houston for the second time since being acquired in the July 31 trade deadline deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland. He gave up five runs in six innings to Houston on August 23rd. White has a 9.19 ERA in the month of September, and he's given up eight homers in 15 2/3 innings.

Henry Sosa is no stud for Houston, but he's better than White with a 4.74 ERA in eight starts this season, and a 4.76 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three home starts. He has only allowed 13 hits, four walks and one home run in 17 innings at home in 2011.

The Rockies are 15-40 in their last 55 games as an underdog. Colorado is 8-25 in their last 33 meetings in Houston. The Astros are 9-5 in their last 14 home games, including 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Houston Thursday.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Angels -116

The Angels chances of winning the AL West are growing slim with the Rangers recent hot streak, but I don't expect this team to give up until there is no hope left. Los Angeles has taken two of three against the Blue Jays already in this series, and I like their chances of pulling out another win with Ervin Santanta on the mound.

Santana has a mediocre 11-12 overall record in 2011, but his 3.40 ERA shows that he has been a better pitcher than his record may indicate. Santana seems to have found a comfort zone pitching on the road, as he is 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 starts. Santana has also had some nice success against the Blue Jays in his career, including two very good starts this season where he has allowed just 4 ER in 17 innings of work.

The Blue Jays will send out Henderson Alvarez, who is 1-2 with a 3.62 ERA in just eight starts. Alvarez is 0-1 with a 4.40 ERA in five starts at home and has allowed 8 ER on 18 hits in just 13 innings over his last two starts. Toronto is just 1-4 in Alvarezs last 5 starts as an underdog.

The Angels are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a favorite and 10-3 in Santana's last 13 starts following a team loss in his previous start. BET THE ANGELS!