David Banks
North Carolina St / Cincinnati Under
A pair of 2-1 teams will look to snag yet another victory in Week 4 of the college football season live on ESPN when the ACC representative NC State Wolfpack invades Cincinnati to battle the Big East rep Bearcats; kick-off from Nippert Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 ET.
It’s real tough to gauge exactly what type of team Coach Tom O’Brien’s Wolfpack is heading into this prime time battle. Reason being, NCST stands 2-1 SU on the season with the pair of wins coming against Liberty and South Alabama, and the loss coming on the road at Wake Forest in a game they battled back in but ultimately came up short. On top of it, the Raleigh natives are 0-3 against the closing pointspread on the year. That said; there are some nice components to this team. QB Mike Glennon is proving to be a solid replacement for the departed Russell Wilson as he’s completed 64.1 percent of his passes and sports a TD/INT ratio of 8/1. Defensively, the Wolfpack have made it very tough for opponent’s to move the ball on the ground (#36 at 105.3 YPG), but they have been beaten through the air (#103 at 271.3 YPG). NC State is a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS its L/3 versus Big East opposition.
It’s also been tough to get a true barometer reading on Cincinnati, as the Bearcats have simply torn apart much lesser competition at home (Austin Peay/Akron) and gotten torched in their lone road tussle with Tennessee in Knoxville. The offense simply looks tremendous with the three-headed monster of Zach Collaros at QB, Isaiah Pead at RB and D.J. Woods at WR. The trio currently has the Bearcats ranked 4th in scoring (51.3 PPG) and 34th in total yards from scrimmage (433). On the other hand, the defense has had trouble containing opposing passing attacks (#94 at 258.3 YPG), so this unit will play a large role in limiting what the Wolfpack likes to do through the air. Cincy is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS when favored by 3.5 to 10 points the L/3 seasons.
These programs met on the gridiron for the first time last season in Raleigh where the Wolfpack cruised to the 30-19 home win and cover as short two-point favorites. NC State split its six road games a year ago failing to cover both times when favored, but tallied four pointspread wins when dogged and won outright three times. The ‘under’ is 5-1 the L/6 times NC State took to the field as visiting underdogs. Cincy went 3-4 SU at home a year ago and only covered twice the six times it was favored. The Bearcats stand 1-9 ATS the L/10 times they played off a SU victory with the ‘over’ cashing in seven of their L/10 home tussles.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Angels -115
We'll back this motivated Angels club behind Santana as it continues its pursuit of the AL wild card. After 18 straight starts without giving up more than 4 earned runs in a game, Santana has been touched for 5 earned in each of his last 2 starts. No need to worry as he is a perfect 8-0 on the money line in his career following back-to-back outings in which he allowed 5 or more runs. Also, the Angels are 11-5 in his last 16 starts and 5-1 in his last 6 road starts. They're also 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs. the Blue Jays. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned in any of those 6 starts. We'll take the Halos here.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago White Sox +105
The Chicago White Sox can't blame their play on the road as the reason they've underachieved this season. Having already secured a winning record away from home, the White Sox look for a third straight win over the Cleveland Indians to conclude the road portion of their schedule Thursday night. The Sox are 43-37 away from U.S. Cellular Field in 2011. Phil Humber is quietly having a solid season for the White Sox. Humber is 9-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 24 starts this year, including 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 12 road outings. Jeanmar Gomez sports a 3.78 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance for Cleveland. Humber has posted a 2.46 ERA in two starts versus Cleveland in 2011. Chicago is a very profitable 48-46 (+18.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 1-14 (-16.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 6-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season. The Indians are 1-7 in their last eight home games overall. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.
Teddy Covers
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
The betting markets are simply too hot on the Tigers these days. Detroit has won 15 of their last 18 overall and 25 of their last 32, including last night’s come-from behind win at Kansas City. But don’t expect maximum intensity from the Tigers on their final homestand of the season following their latest successful road trip. Manager Jim Leyland brought Doug Fister in for a relief role last night, looking to set up his rotation for the playoffs already. “We have to get everything lined up for the playoffs." Slugger Miguel Cabrera echoed that sentiment: “It’s going to be nice going home and getting ready for the playoffs.” This team is, quite simply, not fully focused on tonight’s affair.
Meanwhile, the Orioles are playing inspired baseball down the stretch. In the last two weeks, they’ve beaten the Yankees twice, the Rays twice, the Angels twice and the Red Sox three times. Baltimore has a 7-2 mark in their last nine games, cashing as a big underdog in each and every one of those contests against playoff teams and playoff contenders. Manager Buck Showalter: “Just the emotion of the games, I think, plays well for us. We kind of, more than anything, just have some envy. At some point we want to be in their position.”
Baltimore infielder Robert Andino echoed those sentiments: “We ain’t coming out here to lose. We’re coming out here to just play ball, you know. Just go out there and go forward. We’ve got nothing to lose, so we just go out there and have fun.” Facing Tigers prospect Jacob Turner – who hasn’t thrown a single pitch since getting clobbered by KC on September 1st – look for the Orioles winning ways to continue tonight. Take the Orioles.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ NY Mets Over 8.5: Last night i had these two teams in a 4 unit totals play and it was a winner for me. The St Louis offense has really come alive vs the Mets as they have put up 17 runs in the first 2 of the series and they have averaged 7 rpg in their last 4 games vs Met pitching this year. Today they face Chris Capuano, who has struggled vs them. In 13 career starts Chris has a 5.25 ERA vs them, while in 3 career starts in the new Busch Stadium has has an ERA of 7.27 and in those 3 starts an average of 10 rpg have been scored. This year Chris has struggled on the road with a 5.29 ERA and those games have averaged 10.21, while his day starts have averaged 11.51 rpg and he has posted a 4.81 ERA in those starts. Jake Westbrook has p[itched well of late overall, but he has really struggled at home with a 5.59 ERA, while he also has a 5.15 ERA in his day starts. Jake's starts overall have averaged 9.23 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 8.87 rpg. We also note that both starters have a slightly eleveated WHIP's as Jake has a WHIP of 1.56 at home, while Chris has a WHIP of 1.48 on the road. We also note that the Over is 10-2 in NY''s last 12 road games with the total set at 7 to 8.5, while the Over is also 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings between these teams here, plus the Over is 17-3-2 in the last 22 games when Jim Reynolds is the Ump in St Louis games. 10+ runs in this one easily.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas/Oakland Over 8.5: The Over is 13-4-1 between these teams this year and 8-1 in the last 9 here dating back to last year. The last 9 here have averaged 11.7 rpg. The offenses took the night off last night, but they will get back on track today as I look for DD to be scored.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -110
The White Sox are just 2-7 in Humber's last 9 starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts when valued as an underdog. The Indians, meanwhile, are 4-0 in Gomez's last 4 starts and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts. Take the Tribe.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Astros -113
A Colorado club that could never quite get over the hump has officially packed it in. They've lost 7 in a row and all 7 of those defeats came at home. Don't expect things to be any better on the road tonight. The Rockies have lost their last 5 series openers and are just 8-25 in their last 33 meetings in Houston. The Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Houston.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NC State/ Cincinnati Under 61: I know this could be a bit of a risk as both offenses are strong and NC State is missing a bunch of defensive players, but I still feel that both defenses will step up big tonight and some bad weather in the second half could help to keep this one under the total. Cincinnati's offense has racked up 51 ppg and 433 ypg on the year, but most of that damage was done vs Austin Peay and Akron as they were held to just 23 points vs their only real competition (Tennessee). NC State is missing some key defensive personnel, but they have allowed just 23 ppg on the year so far. The team did bring back 8 starters from last years group that allowed just 21 ppg and they only lost 6 lettermen from the defense overall so they do have good depth. The Wolfpack has also racked up some points this year, but they did play 2 FCS foes and put up just 27 points vs their only FBS foe (Wake Forest). The Bearcats this year returned 11 starters on defense and they played very well vs lesser competition, but did struggle vs Tennessee. I look for them to have a good showing tonight vs a young QB and an offense that has just 5 starters back on that side of the ball. 61 points is just 2 high for this game, especially since these teams put up just 49 points last year with better offenses than these teams have this year also there should be some of the wet stuff in the second half of this games and that should affect some late scoring. I look for about 50 to 55 in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The Under is 16-3 in NC State's last 19 games on Thursday and the Under is 1-9 in Cincinnati's last 10 on Thursday night.