Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 23,2010

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
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The Yankees and Rays wrap up a crucial three game series in the Bronx Thursday evening where CC Sabathia matches serves with David Price in a matchup of staff aces. Sabathia takes the hill 7-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his career team starts against Tampa Bay, He is also 10-1 in his last 11 home team starts and 11-1 in his last 12 team starts during the month of September. With that look for Price to dip to 1-3 in his career team starts in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Diego Padres
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San Diego had a 3-1 win on Wednesday to take over first place in the NL West as San Francisco was beaten by the Cubs. San Diego will look for the series sweep over the LA as they send 14 game winner Mat Latos to the mound who has a 2.00 era against the Dodgers in three starts this year. LA has 10 gam winner Hiroki Kuroda who is under .500 at home this season at 5-6 and has struggled big time against the Padres with an 0-2 record in two starts giving up 7 earned runs in 10 innings. Look for Latos to win number 15 as Kuroda fails to figure out the Padre batters. Play San Diego

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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In game 4 the Yankees qualify in a solid system that has cashed 9 of 11 times. What we want to do is play on home favorites with a total of 8 or less that are off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs, if they scored 2 or less runs and are taking on an opponent off a road dog win that had 10 or more men left on base. The Yankees are 26-7 this year when the posted total is 8 or 8.5. In the pitching match up the Big aces are on the hill tonight. CC. Sabathia is going for New York tonight. He is 12-3 in home starts this year with a solid 2.56 era and already has a home win here this year vs Tampa Bay. The Rays counter with D. Price tonight. Price has a 3.62 road era which is decent. However he did allow 7 runs in 5 innings here in his last start in New York. In that game he was hit very hard. Look for the Yankees to close out the series with a win.

DAVID CHANFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
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Yovani Gallardo is healthy and back in rhythm. When that happens Gallardo is one of the best pitchers in the National League and certainly worthy of laying this price.
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Gallardo is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts. The Brewers are off a confidence-building 13-1 home win against the Reds.
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The Brewers will stay in Milwaukee to face the Marlins, traveling from New York after beating the Mets on Wednesday night.
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Gallardo has held the Marlins to one earned run in 14 innings in his two starts against them.
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Florida has lost in four of its last five visits to Miller Park. The Marlins are pitching Anibal Sanchez.
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Sanchez is wearing down after throwing 177 innings this year. His previous high was 114 1/3 innings, which he threw five years ago.
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Sanchez is 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA during his past three starts.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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San Francisco may be in a pennant race, but they are a long way from home and this team is far better at home than on the road. Opponents are hitting .270 off 21-year old starter Madison Bumgarner. Ryan Dempster (14-10) has had a great second half, with the team 6-3 his last 9 starts. He is off two wins of 2-0 and 1-0. Dempster's strong campaign has been overshadowed by the Cubs' woes in general. With 190 strikeouts in 31 starts. Play the Cubs.

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Cardinals may have the better overall record but the Pirates are currently playing much better baseball. Indeed, yesterday's victory brought the Pirates to a perfect 5-0 their last five games. This afternoon's matchup should provide them with a solid shot at recording the series sweep, while improving to .500 at home.
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Burres has been pitching very well lately. The Pirates are 3-0 (+5.1) his last three starts. During that stretch, he has a superb 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. For the season, he's got a 2.08 ERA as a starter at home, with the Pirates winning all four of his starts here.
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Suppan has had plenty of success vs. Pittsburgh over the year and he beat the Pirates earlier this season. That was at home though and he's been brutal on the road. In five road starts, he's 0-4 with an awful 7.01 ERA and 1.792 WHIP. Note that he got rocked the last time he pitched here at Pittsburgh, too. He lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up four home runs.
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With the Pirates rolling and Cards reeling, the price on the home team seems fair. Consider Pittsburgh

Stephen NoverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston at WASHINGTON (-120)
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I am on a 71-51-2 hot streak with my baseball free picks. I'm going with the Washington Nationals for my Thursday free selection.
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This is a day game and get away day for Houston, which moves on to Pittsburgh. The Astros have been hot, but have now dropped two in a row to
Washington.
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The Astros have been playing above their heads and could be headed for a fall as the season winds down, especially missing outfielders Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. The Astros are limited offensively to begin with, so they can not afford to be without their leadoff hitter and stolen bases champion Bourn and perhaps their best all-around player in Pence.
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Bourn has missed the past three games with an oblique injury. Pence missed last night's game because of a hip injury. I doubt that either plays this afternoon.
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The pitching matchup is Astros journeyman Nelson Figueroa versus Ross Detwiler.
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Figueroa can be effective in a spot starter role. But he's been in the rotation for more than a month now and opponents aren't being fooled. Figueroa has a 6.43 ERA in his last three starts.
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Detwiler is an intriguing prospect. He was the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft, but his career has been derailed by injuries. His latest aliment was a hip injury. He last pitched on Sept. 13 throwing two scoreless innings in relief. This is an important start for him.
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The Nationals probably will draw less than 12,000 fans for this game, but they are 10-4 in their last 14 home contests versus Houston and will be motivated with Detwiler pitching, while on the other hand I see the Astros mailing this one in. Houston's offense takes a severe hit without Bourn and Pence.
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2♦ WASHINGTON

Bobby MaxwellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego (-105) at L.A. DODGERS
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I am 4-1 with my last five FREE selections and delivering a winner on the diamond tonight as I go with the Padres on the road in Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.
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San Diego has been in Los Angeles for two nights and the Padres have looked like the team that led the National League West all season. They have gotten key hits and quality pitching and taken the first two games, allowing just one run to the Dodgers in 18 innings.
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After the 3-1 win on Wednesday, the Padres are back in first place in the N.L. West and today they send their young stud right-hander to the hill in Mat Latos (14-7, 2.84 ERA). Sure, Latos has struggled in his last two starts, but the guy was so good for so long that he had to have a brief bad spell. He is 9-3 on the road and you can bank on this guy coming with his best stuff tonight.
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Latos has dominated the Dodgers all three times he’s seen them this season, allowing four earned runs in 18 innings. On September 7, Latos shut down the Dodgers, holding them to one runs on four hits over seven innings, striking out 10 in the 2-1 victory.
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On the mound for Los Angeles is Hiroki Kuroda (10-13, 3.36 ERA) who is just 5-6 at home and he didn’t look sharp on Friday against the Rockies, giving up five runs in six innings of a 7-5 loss. In two starts against the Padres this season, Kuroda has allowed eight runs in 10 innings in ugly 6-1 and 10-5 losses.
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San Diego has won six in a row over the Dodgers and they come in on streaks of 20-8 against losing teams, 17-7 in the third game of a series, 9-1 when Latos faces a losing team on the road, 6-2 when he gets a full five days off and 6-1 when he starts the third game of a series.
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The Dodgers are on slides of 8-21 against N.L. West teams, 17-37 against teams with winning records, 1-6 in their last seven overall and 0-7 when Kuroda faces N.L. West rivals.
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I’m going with the youngster Mat Latos today and look for the Padres to make it a three-game sweep.
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4♦ SAN DIEGO

Karl GarrettFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego (even) at LOS ANGELES
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Free play winner for Thursday in baseball is for the San Diego Padres to sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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San Diego will turn to Mat Latos who has been battered his last 2 starts, but the kid did defeat the Dodgers the last time he faced them working 7 complete frames of 1 run ball, while striking out 10 batters.
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The Padres are in the midst of a 6 game series winning streak against the Dodgers, and they have also won 9 of the last 11 series meetings this season against LA.
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Hiroki Kuroda is on an 0-2 slide his last 3 starts, and also suffered back-to-back losses against the Padres to end the month of July and start the month of August.
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G-Man going with the Padres in this near pick spot.
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2♦ SAN DIEGO

Joel TysonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay at N.Y. YANKEES
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Your Thursday comp play is to look for a pitcher's duel tonight at Yankee Stadium as Cy Young candidates David Price and CC Sabathia hook up for the season series finale between the Rays and the Yankees.
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I know these teams have played a ton of overs this season, but that is not going to be the case with the pair of southpaws on the mound tonight.
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The last time these two hooked up on September 13th, the game ended up going scoreless for 10 full innings, as the Rays won a 1-0 decision in 11 innings of play.
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Both Price and Sabathia were brilliant, and I expect them to be brilliant again tonight.
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Price stands at 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts, while Sabathia is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA over his last 3.
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Last night's game held under the total to make it 4 of the last 7 between the teams on the low-side.
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I see this game easily holding under the posted total as another pitcher's duel breaks out in the Bronx.
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3♦ UNDER

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo has allowed 3 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 4-1 their last 5 games with the Marlins. Milwaukee is 7-3 with Gallardo when the total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Brewers are 5-2 with Gallardo vs. NL East teams. Gallardo is 5-1 of a quality start in his last game. Florida starter Anibal Sanchez has allowed 15 runs in his last 16.2 innings of work. The Marlins are 2-5 their last 7 games vs. righty starters and they are 0-5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their last game.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami –3½ over PITTSBURGHFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hurricanes are ranked while the Panthers are not and anyone that has followed this section over the years knows we’re not big supporters of laying road points in this sport and particularly when it’s ranked vs unranked. However, we’ll make an exception here because the Canes are an undervalued team and by season’s end they could be ranked in the top five. Miami went into #2 Ohio St. in its last game and although they lost 36-24, that score is very deceiving. They turned the ball over five times, the Buckeyes had great field position all game and Miami held OSU QB Terrelle Pryor to just 128 yards through the air on 12-28 passing. In fact, one could argue that the Canes were the better team and had they not turned it over so many times they would’ve won that game. The Canes are loaded on both sides of the ball and both its offensive and defensive lines are among the best in the nation. The Panthers are home but so what. They’re really not that good. Its star RB from a year ago, Dion Lewis looks horrible this season. Against FCS opponent New Hampshire last week, Lewis ran for 27 yards on 10 carries and now has 102 yards in two games combined. They beat New Hampshire 38-16 but pay more attention to the 16 allowed than the 38 scored and that contest was played in Pittsburgh. The Canes are superior in all the key skilled positions and there’s no comparing the two defenses. Don’t expect a mistake-filled game from the Canes like they had against the Buckeyes. If all things are equal here, the Canes will bury this Dave Wannstedt coached team. Play: Miami –3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
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ARIZONA –1.06 over ColoradoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies surge is over and if nothing else the D-Backs can take solace in the fact that they’re solely responsible for stopping it and essentially preventing Colorado from reaching the post-season. They can put the proverbial nail in its coffin here. Last night’s loss was especially devastating after the Rox scored four runs in the top of the first and didn’t get another sniff the rest of the way en route to an 8-4 loss. Jeff Francis will be on a strict pitch count of about 80 or thereabouts and has made only three starts since the beginning of August. He’s 0-2 in that stretch with an ERA of 5.52 and he’s never had success at this park. In fact, Francis has an ERA of 8.10 and a .352 BAA in three starts at Chase Field over the last three seasons and current D-Backs have hit a robust .396 against him in a combined 91 AB’s. Meanwhile, Ian Kennedy has been one of the majors top three pitchers in September. Kennedy has lowered his walks, he’s raised his grounders and he’s lowered his WHIP to 1.16. His September ERA is 0.45. Lastly, the D-Backs are playing damn good ball. Last night’s rally from four down was impressive and so is the demeanor and desire of this squad. Momentum counts for something and the Rockies momentum has completely died. Play: Arizona –1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
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San Diego –1.01 over LOS ANGELESFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Some suggest that Mat Latos is suffering from fatigue because he’s allowed 13 ER over his last two starts covering just 5.1 frames. Perhaps he is, but if he were in that much trouble the Padres would push him back a day or two at this crucial time so don’t buy into it. We’re just used to seeing this guy bring it every game and absolutely dominate line-ups. So he’s been whacked in two straight. Big deal. It happens. Now he’ll face a completely lifeless Dodger team that is only interested in crossing off the calendar dates until the season ends. From top to bottom they do not care and neither does the brass at this point. If ever there was a team just going through the motions, the Dodgers are it. They got a very fluky run last night and lost 3-1. In five September games against these Padres, the Dodgers have scored four runs. They lost 6-0 on Tuesday and should’ve lost 3-0 last night. The effort and mind-set of this host is one that cannot be wagered on and it really does not matter who’s pitching. The Padres are a million times more determined and the fact tat we only have to lay a penny here is a true gift. Play: San Diego –1.01 (Risking 3.03 units to win 3).

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Astros / Nationals Under 8½
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The Houston Astros and Washington Nationals barely stayed ‘under’ last night in a game that was 2-1 in the seventh inning, and we are looking for another ‘under’ today, only without the unneeded excitement at the end.
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The bookmakers have installed a total of 8½ on this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -115.
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Neither of these teams is going anywhere this year, and neither is hitting particularly well lately. The Astros are batting a pedestrian .257 as a team over the last 10 games while the Nationals have been even worse, batting .246 over that same span. Even in the 4-3 Washington win last night, the umpires helped bump up the score by missing two calls that would have ended innings, and then having the teams score afterwards.
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Nelson Figueroa gets the start for Houston today, and he has proven to be quite serviceable since getting called up from the minors, allowing three earned runs or less in six of his seven starts at the Major League level this year. He also has a nice track record over the years vs. the Nationals, allowing three runs or less in six of his seven career starts against them, with the most recent coming last season when he allowed two runs and six hits in six innings of an unlucky 2-1 loss.
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The Nationals counter with young southpaw Ross Detwiler, who is making his first start since being recalled from Syracuse on September 2. Detwiler was with the big club earlier this year and he did not disgrace himself whole posting a 2.37 ERA in 19 Major League innings, He can be doubly tough on a struggling Houston lineup that has never faced him before.
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Throw in the fact that this is getaway day, which is usually when also-rans are more interested in getting games over with this time of the year, and the ‘under’ looks even more solid.

BRETT ATKINS

Miami thoroughly got beaten in Columbus back on Sept. 11 when they fell to the Buckeyes 36-24. Hurricanes’ QB Jacory Harris threw four INTs and had it not been for special teams, the Hurricanes would have been blown out by halftime.

Ohio State rushed for 181 yards on Miami and tonight the Hurricanes will face a tough-minded runner that is looking to get back to his 2009 form. RB Dion Lewis ran for 1,799 yards last season, yet he still hasn’t busted out this season with just 102 yards on 35 carries through the first two games. But if the Buckeyes tore through the Miami line, then Lewis should be able to have a big game tonight.

I’m happy with the way Pitt QB Tino Sunseri has looked this season, but he could use help from the defense to put up a show today.

Miami showed its inexperience in big road games against Ohio State and fell to just 1-7 in games played outside of Florida.

Despite the Panthers’ off-field problems, I’m going to take the plus-money and play Pitt at home.

4♦ PITTSBURGH