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Rays at NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Another big showdown game in the Bronx. The Yankees have all their big bats back in the lineup and playing well. Facing David Price is no easy task, but the Yankees have their own ace going here in C.C. Sabathia, a 20-game winner. Price has a 4.35 ERA against the Bronx Bombers, while Sabathia is 8-4 against Tampa Bay, including a 1.84 ERA this season, making this an excellent price on the home team.
Derek Mancini
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San Diego at LA DODGERS (-105)
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Much like last night's Freebie winner on the Nationals, I'm not buying the Padres at this price. It's simply too easy. Considering how San Diego has owned the Dodgers of late (6 straight wins), and that includes tonight's starter, Mat Latos, I just don't see why the Padres should be priced so cheaply? That is unless oddsmakers were trying to entice you to play them, which by the looks of it, many bettors have fallen prey to this trap.
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I'll say this again: oddsmakers aren't stupid. They know exactly what they're doing when setting the line at this price. They're hoping the average bettor will see the name "Latos" and see this price, and think they're getting a bargain. Big mistake. Fact is Kuroda has been pitching great despite little run support, posting a 2.71 ERA since the All-Star Break.
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Herein lies the issue, because Latos is not pitching well (13 runs allowed in his L2 starts - just 5 1/3 innings). With the Dodgers having just seen him two weeks ago, this is the perfect opputunity for them to get their redemption vs a young pitcher who's obviously hit the wall. While the Dodgers are struggling, the line on this contest suggests Kuroda will outpitch Latos, and based on his recent efforts, I'm inclined to believe it. Dodgers (Kuroda) over Padres (Latos).
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2♦ LA DODGERS
Chuck O'BrienFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay at N.Y. YANKEES
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I’ve hit 17 of 25 free plays in September, including nine of the last 13 overall and seven of eight in baseball! Tonight, I’ll look for the Yankees-Rays game to stay UNDER the total.
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Clearly, this play is all about the starting pitchers, as Tampa’s David Price (17-6, 2.79 ERA) squares off against CC Sabathia (20-6, 3.05 ERA). These Cy Young candidates hooked up in Tampa Bay 10 days ago, and the matchup lived up to the hype as Price outdueled Sabathia in a 1-0 Rays victory. Both guys went eight innings, with Sabathia giving up just two runs and two walks with nine strikeouts and Price yielding three hits and two walks with four Ks.
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I’m not going to predict another 1-0 final – that’s unrealistic – but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the first one to three win this contest. After all, these teams continue to battle it out for first place in the A.L. East (New York has a 1½-game lead), so the intensity will be extremely high. And since Tampa Bay rolled to a 7-2 victory last night, both squads have their best relief pitchers (and closers) at their disposal.
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Finally, even though both the Yankees and Rays field extremely potent offenses that can explode at any moment, neither are in very good form right now (New York is batting just .251 over its last 10 games, while Tampa is hitting a paltry .230 in its last 10). Throw in the fact that last night’s rain-delayed contest didn’t end until after midnight, and we could very well be looking at two gassed lineups.
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3♦ UNDER
Chris JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado at ARIZONA (-115)
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Now on a 24-12 run with MLB free plays, and today I am rolling with the Diamondbacks over the Rockies.
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As for your free choice, the Diamondbacks get the chance to send the Rockies to their fourth-straight loss. Something tells me Colorado isn't focused on this series in Phoenix, but rather has its mind on the Giants this weekend.
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The Padres, Giants and Rockies are embroiled in a three-team dash in the National League West, and the Giants will be in Denver for the weekend.
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And even though the Rockies have a chance to make the playoffs for the third time in four years, and the Snakes are assured of a second straight last-place finish in the division, the fact remains that Colorado has dropped six of eight at Chase Field this season and is currently mired in a terrible skid.
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Factor in that Colorado's Jeff Francis is 0-4 with an 8.68 ERA in his last five starts against the Diamondbacks, and this has the makings of another disastrous night for the Rockies.
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Play the Snakes here, as there is pure value in this game.
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3♦ ARIZONA
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1* on Tampa Bay Rays +132
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David Price is having a Cy Young-caliber season, going 17-6 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.193 WHIP. He has come up big for the Rays down the stretch as well, going 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last 3 starts, a stretch where Tampa Bay has gone 3-0. Price pitched 8 shutout innings against the Yankees on September 13th, a game the Rays went on to win 1-0 in extra innings. Price is 17-4 (+13.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. For just a second-year pro, Price is living up to all the hype he received coming out of college. We are getting him at excellent value Thursday. Take the Rays on the Money Line.
Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -124
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I'm going to back ace Cliff Lee at a very reasonable price against the A's, who send the struggling Dallas Braden to the bump. The Athletics are 0-4 in Braden's last 4 home starts vs. the Rangers, and he has lost his last 4 starts overall, while giving up 15 runs in just 21 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Lee has won each of his last two starts while only allowed 2 runs in 16 innings of work, and he is 8-3 on the money line lifetime with an ERA of 2.20 against Oakland. Take Texas.
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Miami Florida Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Play: Pittsburgh Panthers +4½
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The 19th ranked Hurricanes invade Pittsburgh tonight. For Miami, it's been a tale of two games. In their opener, they were nearly flawless and won 45-0. In their second outing, Jacory Harris was picked off four times and the team was heavily penalized, leading to a 36-24 loss. The difference? In week one they played lowly Florida A&M and in week two, Ohio State. Miami is facing another solid team tonight. Pittsburgh is closer to Ohio State than Florida A&M. The Panthers lost their opener on the road to Utah and followed that up with a 38-16 win over New Hampshire. They are averaging 31 points per game and that's not good for Miami. The Canes, who gave up 36 last time out, are just 9-39 ATS in their last 48 games when allowing 28 or more points. Pitt has covered the number 49 of the last 77 games in which they have scored 28 or more. The Panthers strength thus far has been their run defense. They have allowed just 3.1 yards per rush and held New Hampshire to just 73 yards. Under Dave Wannstedt, this team is 12-4 ATS following a game in which they held the opponent to 100 or less yards. This stadium is going to be rocking and hostile for Harris and the Canes. My computer matchup for this game predicts a very tight game and I agree. I like Pittsburgh to at least keep things close.
Info PlaysFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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3* on Kansas City Royals +136
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Reasons the Royals win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (KANSAS CITY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (AL), starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings. This is a 54-36 ML System hitting 60% since 1997 while gaining +45.8 units. Bet the Royals on the road.
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -104
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With nothing to play for, the Dodgers have packed in it, losing 6 of their last 7. San Diego has now 6 straight over the Dodgers, and I expect it to make it 7 tonight. The Padres are just a half game up on San Francisco in the NL West so they can't afford to relax. They should have the edge against Kuroda, who has lost 3 straight to San Diego, while giving up 12 runs in 15 innings in those starts. I know Latos has struggled in his last couple outings, but I'm confident he bounces back tonight against a team he has never allowed more than 2 earned runs to in 4 career starts. Plus, Latos is an awesome 9-4 with an ERA of 3.04 on the road this season. Take the Padres.
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Florida Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick : Florida Marlins
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I'm taking the Marlins at a great price Thursday as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Neither team has anything to play for, and in spots like these I really like taking the underdog late in the season. Plus, with Florida sitting at 76-75 this season, they certainly would like to finish the year at .500 or better. Milwaukee is 70-81 right now and will have no reason to be motivated the rest of the season. The Marlins are 3-0 in their last 3 games.
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You would think that the Brewers would have a huge edge on the mound tonight with this line. But that's simply not the case. Anibal Sanchez is 12-10 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.339 WHIP this season, very similar numbers to Yovani Gallardo who is 13-7 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.326 WHIP. Not to mention, Sanchez has owned the Brewers. The righty is 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in 4 career starts vs. Milwaukee, and his team is a perfect 4-0 in those 4 games. Take Florida Thursday.
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Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers are in perfect position to take the AL West crown this weekend, facing the team that is its closest competitor in Oakland. The Rangers have not been playing their best baseball lately, losing four of six, as their offense has been pedestrian and they have fallen to fifth in the American League in runs scored at 4.8 per game. They did avoid being swept in L.A. last night with a clutch 2-1 victory, lowering their magic number to 4.
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In the series opener it is Cliff Lee (12-8, 3.19 ERA) against Dallas (Mr. Perfect) Braden (9-13, 3.65), whose been rocked of late for 14 runs in 16 2/3 innings.
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For Thursday, consider all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, who score 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a good AL starter (ERA of 4.20 or less), after a combined score of three runs or less. In the last 13 seasons this system is 37-9, 80.4 percent
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on NY Yankees -140
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I'll back the Yankees in this bounce back spot in the battle between Sabathia and Price. With Carlos Pena not expected to be in the starting lineup tonight (rest), the Rays will be minus a big bat. You already have to give the edge to Sabathia considering the Yankees are 22-5 in his last 27 home starts, but this certainly helps our cause as well. It is also certainly worth noting that the Yankees are 11-1 in Sabathia's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has not performed well in the underdog role, and it is also 0-4 in its last 4 games following a win. In fact, the Rays have dropped 9 of their last 12 games when valued as a road underdog. It is also worth mentioning that they are 1-4 in Price's last 5 starts as a road underdog. Take the Yanks at home tonight.
Lenny Del GenioFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Texas Rangers
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This is a critical series for the A's and represents their last chance at catching the Rangers in the American League West. Texas starts the day ten games ahead of their division rival. They give the baseball to ace Cliff Lee, who in two starts vs. Oakland this year has posted a 0.53 ERA. A 2-2 split in this four-game set would clinch the division title for the Rangers. This series has not come at a good time for the A's bullpen, who is dealing with multiple injuries. That leaves starter Dallas Braden to carry the bulk of the workload and that's not good news for Oakland backers considering his 0-4 record his last four starts to go along with a 6.23 ERA. The southpaw has already logged in a career high in innings pitched, which he's admitted have taken their toll. The Rangers are 41-19 as favorites when priced between -125 and -175 and are 10-1 if their bullpen pitched 6+ innings last game. Take Texas.