Vernon Croy
Memphis (-9.5) over Cincinnati
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems, and this line can not move high enough to get me off Memphis as a free pick here Thursday. Memphis is the superior team here on both sides of the ball, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing a team that has a winning record on the road. The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and 0-5 in their last 5 games played in September. Play Memphis ATS as they win big here at home over a Bearcats team that has some key injuries.
Raphael Esparza
Cincinnati / Memphis Over 65
Yes, I know this total is 68 and it's not a TCU, Baylor, or even an Oregon game, but both teams can score and score quickly. The Memphis Tigers are at home and are perfect 3-0 this young season, but their offense has been unstoppable as of late. They are averaging 54 ppg, and in their last 2 road games the Tigers offense scored 99 points. Thursday night the scoreboard operator will be working overtime. The Cincinnati Bearcats defense has given up back-to-back 30 point games, and if they give up the big plays on the road Thursday night this total will have no problem cashing. Cincinnati is 5-0 O/U in their last 5 games, and the Bearcats are 6-0 O/U when playing on fieldturf. Memphis is 6-0 O/U in their last 6 games, and in their last 6 home games all 6 of them have gone over.
Sleepyj
Arizona +1.5 -131
A small price to pay here for Corbin and +1.5....I'm sure most will look RL w/ Kershaw, but i'm not feeling the Dodgers during the day at home right now...This team has hit a bit of a rutt and the run production from them is a little lazy right now..They got the ship turned around last night, but the runs are not coming..It's going to take a Kershaw or Greinke to grab wins here if this keeps up...Putting a quality pitcher like Corbin on the mound may give the Dodgers issues here...Corbin has a 2.99 ERA and a WHIP of 1.18....This guy is about as quality as it gets...His last 10 games have been rather solid...He has allowed 3ER or more in only 3 of 10...IMO Corbin needed some time to get back to form..I think this guy will dominate next year and finish off his remaining starts well..He just faced the Dodgers in a game he lost 10 days ago..He looked "ok" and only allowed 2ER in that game..I think he can get back at the Dodgers with how they are swinging the bats right now...D-Backs have been the hotter team here over the last week...Kershaw is Kershaw..The guy is a beast on the mound..Can't knock him for much at all....All we can use is trends really with him at this point..He has a big overhaul in innings right now...He was so tough the last 2 months his outings have been lasting 7+ 8+ innings every game...I have noticed his strikeouts have tailed off his last three games..He has walked 6 batters in his last three starts combined..It's not much to use, but i still feel dueing the day the D-backs will be ok for a few runs..Kershaw is trending down just a tad..Sometimes that's all you need when you take the RL with a quality pitcher and a hotter team on our side...Corbin can hang with this team here today...I like the +1.5 in a game i think the D-Backs can actually win here..Give me some insurance and a cheap price here.
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A's
Play: Texas Rangers -143
Texas blasted Oakland 10-3 last night. The Rangers are 6-1 on the road after scoring 10+ road runs. They apply to a league wide system that has won 18 of 22 times and plays on certain road favorites off a 5+ run road win while scoring 10 or more runs vs an opponent like Oakland that is off a home dog loss by 5+ runs and scored 4 or less runs. Texas is averaging over 7 runs the past week and have Hamels on the mound where they have won his last 7 starts. Oakland has lost 13 of 19 this month. Take Texas.
Ray Monohan
Texas vs. Oakland
Play: Under 8
The Rangers and Athletics get things going early on Thursday and the Under is a solid play. After two night games, both teams suffer a quick turnaround with a 12:10 start on the west coast. LH Cole Hamels and RH Chris Bassitt. Hamels has turned in 2 straight quality starts going 7 innings in each allowed 3 runs then 1 run. Hamels has dominated the AL West as both of his last two starts have came against the Astros and Mariners. As for RH Chris Bassitt, he owns a 1-6 record, but has an ERA of 2.82. Bassitt did allow 4 runs in just 4.1 innings last time out, but prior to that he had no allowed more than 3 runs in a start since June. Both pitchers are in solid form and we should see a typical getaway day low scoring affair here.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -118
I like the price we are getting with the Boston Red Sox tonight in a battle between two teams that really have nothing to play for. The Red Sox had won three straight before dropping games to the Rays each of the past two days, so they'll at least be motivated to square this series at 2-2.
The reason this is a good price is the pitching matchup. Wade Miley has really pitched well here down the stretch, going 1-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last three starts. He has owned the Rays this season and throughout his career, going 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in six starts against them.
Erasmo Ramirez is having a decent season overall, but his 4.37 ERA on the road in 13 starts leaves a lot to be desired. Ramirez does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 0-0 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Ramirez is 0-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 0-5 in Ramirez's last five starts overall. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Boston is 8-3 in Miley's last 11 home starts.
Dave Price
Indians/Twins Over 8
While Cody Anderson and Kyle Gibson are both having decent seasons, neither have enjoyed facing their opposition. Anderson has only made one start against Minnesota in his career, and that came on August 7 of this season. He allowed 6 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings for a monstrous 20.22 ERA. Gibson has never fared well against the Indians. He is 1-1 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland. In his last two starts against the Indians, he has allowed 12 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. The OVER is 9-4-1 in Indians last 14 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Gibson's last 5 starts vs. Cleveland. I look for both of these starting pitchers to get lit up again tonight.
Mike Lundin
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Chicago White Sox +113
The New York Yankees were shut out in a 4-0 defeat to AL East-rival Toronto Blue Jays last night. They're now 3.5 games back of the Jays for the division-title and I don't see them making up ground tonight when facing the Chicago White Sox with Chris Sale on the mound. The Chicago ace may be 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four outings this month, but he's 3-0 with an 0.79 ERA in five career meeting with the Bronx Bombers. He has its current members limited to a .136 AVG over 66 at bats with Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Chris Young all still looking for their first hit against the southpaw. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Yankees and he's 0-2 with a 7.06 ERA through his last four starts home in the Bronx where he's struggled all season long posting a 4.29 ERA over 13 outings. He's 0-2 in his career versus Chicago and I think we're getting a terrific price on the White Sox here.
Notes
New York's Chase Headley is 2-for-5 in previous matchups with Sale but just 1-for-17 with nine strikeouts in his last five contests.
New York is 1-5 in its last six home games.
Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
Art Aronson
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Over 8½
The visitors hand the ball to Alec Asher (0-4, 9.78 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Nationals on Wednesday. Asher has been the very definition of a "gas can" since being called up from Triple-A, posting the deplorable 9.78 ERA and 11:7 K:BB ratio in just 19 1/3's innings. The home side counters with Jarred Cosart (2-4, 4.43 ERA) who gave up two runs and three walks over six innings in a 6-4 win over the Nationals on Thursday. Cosart though has been hit-or-miss all season and has posted a 4.73 ERA in all "night" games thus far. With these two suspect starters squaring off against each other on Thursday night, there's no question that the OVER is worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Jim Feist
Brewers at Cardinals
Pick: Under
St. Louis is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of strong arms face off here. Taylor Jungmann (3.31 ERA) has won 9 games, but his offense is terrible, 18th in runs scored and 23rd in on base percentage. He faces a St. Louis team that is weak on offense, 25th in runs scored, 14-4 under the total at home against a team with a losing record. The Cards have great defense in the field and in the pen. Starter Michael Wacha (16-6, 3.08 ERA) is having a strong campaign and the under is 5-1 in his last six home starts. St. Louis is 34-14-4 under the total at home against a right-handed starter, and the under is 36-17-5 in the Cardinals last 58 home games. And when these teams clash the Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis.
Mr. Vegas
San Francisco at San Diego
Play: San Francisco
The Giants are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. San Fran is strong on offense, 15th in runs scored, 5th in on base percentage. Ace Madison Bumgarner (18-8) is throwing great on the road with a 9-4 record. The Giants are 14-3 in Bumgarners last 17 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. He faces a San Diego offense that is dead last in on base percentage. The Padres are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record and the Giants are 12-5 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Padres.
Jeff Barone
NY Giants -180
Could a team be in more need of a win then the NY Giants? I like this matchup for a few reasons. Washington likes to run the ball. The Giants actually play well against the run. The Giants come into this matchup with (3) offensive TD's in 2 games. That matches a league low. The Giants are 4-0 against the Redskins since 2013. Mannings 63.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter is the leagues fifth-worst mark while Washington Kirk Cousins is third-worst at 58.9. Washington plays its first road game after going 1-7 each of the past two seasons. The Redskins have lost 12 of their last 14 NFC East games. Giants save there season and win.
Jeff Saad
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Tampa Bay
The Rays are 37-18 in their last 55 during game 4 of a series. They have a terrific arm going in Erasmo Ramirez (10-6, 3.70 ERA), 5-1 on the road. He has a 1.29 ERA against Boston and the Red Sox are 2-8 when Wade Miley faces the American League East.
Michael Black
Cincinnati at Memphis
Play: Memphis
The Memphis Tigers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats for this week's edition of Thursday Night Football on ESPN and we'll lay the points on Memphis as the double digit favorite. Memphis just failed to cover against Bowling Green last week as a three and a half point favorite. Now, Vegas raises the Tigers to -10 to Cincy? Sounds like Vegas is liking Memphis in this one so we will too.