Brandon Lee
Texas vs. Oakland
Play: Under 7½
I think we are seeing a great spot here to take the UNDER as this total is set a bit high in my opinion, largely due to the fact that these two teams have combined for 14 and 16 runs in the first two games of the series. Texas will send out Cole Hamels here and he comes in with a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while the A's counter with Chris Bassitt, who has a solid 3.79 ERA in his last 3 and a dominant 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 6 home starts (UNDER 5-1 in those 6 home starts). UNDER is 22-9 in Rangers last 31 after a game where they strand 3 or less over the last 2 seasons.
Ari Atari
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants -156
Giants take one last stand and one final push to make their annual late season surge. This year it comes a little too late but don't tell that to a team that still stands a chance and sends out their ace against a hard luck team that sends out Ian Kennedy who's been having plenty of issues as well. Take San Fran on the -1 Run Line to reduce the juice.
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Red Sox -119
I like the value here with Boston as a small home favorite against the Rays. The Red Sox are going to be motivated to get the split here against Tampa in their 4-game series, especially after losing the last two following a series opening win. Given the starting pitching matchup, they should be in good shape for the victory.
Boston will send out lefty Wade Miley, who has quietly been throwing the ball really well. Miley has a 2.78 ERA and 0.882 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's also got a strong 1.109 WHIP over 13 home starts and is 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rays. Tampa Bay counters with Erasmo Ramirez, who has a 4.37 ERA in 13 road starts and a 5.09 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Re Sox.
Rays are just 1-4 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter, 1-4 in Ramirez's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record and 0-4 in his last 4 starts against a division opponent. Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 after allowing 5+ runs, 8-3 in Miley's last 11 home starts and 8-3 in their last 11 following a loss.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. GIANTS -3 over Washington
Washington is 1-1 and probably should be 2-0 after they outplayed the Dolphins in Week 1. In fact, Washington’s stock has really increased in just two weeks after they were heavily faded in its first two games. In Week 1, those that bet Miami to defeat Washington had an uncomfortable feeling the entire game. You could almost hear a collective sigh of relief from Dolphins backers when the clock ran out. Those that faded the ‘Skins last week, and there were plenty of those, never really stood a chance, as Washington pretty much dominated the entire game against the Rams. Now the market is shifting gears somewhat. Those that faded Washington in Weeks 1 & 2 are not so anxious to spot them points again. While we respect the Redskins for what they’ve done, we’re not quite ready to hand them the NFC East. Washington’s mediocre passing game has taken a back seat to their running game but what happens if the ‘Skins fall behind by 10-14 points? Furthermore, the Giants owned the ‘Skins last season by winning both games and outscoring them 69-27. At the very least, the G-Men have that big psychological edge.
The Giants are 0-2, which is rather bizarre considering that they’ve been leading for about 56 of the 60 minutes that they’ve played. Furthermore, the Giants have played two formidable opponents in Atlanta and Dallas and had them both by the throat. It would be one thing if the Giants had lost and had been dominated but in their first two games, the G-Men have allowed just 23 points through the first three quarters, outscoring their opponents 36-23 and having leads in the fourth quarter. Then there’s this: Eli Manning has been ripped apart by the New York media the past two weeks. That media is relentless in their attack. Eli can take the heat but more than that, he has something to prove. Here’s a guy that has brought two Super Bowls to New York and the media can’t wait to get their fangs into him. Yeah he made a couple of awful decisions but at least for one game, this game in prime time, he figures to have a huge chip on his shoulder after being so disrespected. Here’s a recent attack on Eli on the front page of the New York Post:
Eli will respond to that with his play. Lastly, Thursday night games are also tough for the road team. It’s a short week with little time to prep and having to travel. In Week 2 of last year, Baltimore defeated Pitt, 26-6. In Week 3, Atlanta defeated TB, 56-14. In Week 5, the Packers won by 32 over Minnesota, 42-10. You may have noticed that we skipped Week 4 of last year and that’s because the road team won 45-14. That road team was the Giants over Washington.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +110 over BOSTON
After a very hot run, the Red Sox bats have cooled off considerably over the past couple of days. Seems like the Rays pitching staff have a plan of attack and it’s been working. Boston has scored just four runs in the last two games against the Rays and things do not get easier here against Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez has quietly looked like an elite starter in the second half. He was fine from May to July, with improving skills almost weekly, He also has posted an elite 26/5 K/BB in 28 innings over his last five starts. Furthermore, his high 12% swing and miss rate is a confirmation of his top-tier off-speed stuff, and his first-pitch strike rate has soared in the second half from 59% in the first half to 68% in the second half. Ramirez is legit. He’s getting better to the point where he’s close to elite. He has some of the nastiest stuff we’ve seen and the Red Sox are awful against off-speed artists with a combined BA of .195.
With a nice jump in K’s and swing and misses last season with Arizona, Wade Miley showed promise of being a better-than-average pitcher as a part of the Red Sox revamped rotation but for the most part Miley has regressed. His fly-ball % has jumped by 7%, but luckily hr/f% has bailed him out some. He’s returned much of his strikeout gains, as last year's swing and miss % looks a bit like an outlier. To be fair, some poor strand % has provided some wiggle room for ERA improvement, although said "improvement" still isn't close to touching a sub-4.00 ERA. Miley has mostly been a disappointment despite the 11 wins he's compiled. His 46%/31% dominant start/disaster start split showcases his inconsistency. Given that he has one of the league's worst defenses behind him, we don't foresee Miley becoming anything more than an innings eater going forward and he’s certainly not the superior pitcher here.
MINNESOTA -1 +111 over Cleveland
Say goodnight to the Tribe. Although they were up against it anyway, the proverbial nail in the Indians coffin was administered by these Twins last night when Cleveland made Phil Hughes look like Chris Sale. The Indians are now four full games out of a Wild-Card but the bigger issue is that they now have to leapfrog over three teams to get there after the Orioles leapfrogged over them last night. What was especially noticeable in the Indians batting lineup last night was the absence of Michael Brantley. He’s their best hitter and it leaves a big hole in their lineup. Even if Brantley plays tonight (doubtful), it does not matter because it’s near impossible to hit big-league pitching with the type of injury (shoulder) he sustained. Cleveland’s state of mind doesn’t figure to be good either after a long season of 151 games and lost hope after last night’s defeat.
Enter Kyle Gibson. Gibson has put up a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his second full-season as a MLB starter. While his overall skills profile him as a 4.00-ERA pitcher, he does own some positive annual skill trends. Both his first-pitch strike rate and swinging strike rate have soared over the last two seasons (52%-57%-61% first-pitch strike rate 8%-9%-10% swinging strike rate). He also owns an even better 11% swing and miss rate since July 1. Finally, Gibson possesses two legit strikeout pitches (19% swing and miss on changeup, 20% swing and miss on slider), and we know that his fastball velocity can touch the mid-90s. There's further growth on the horizon here to top things off, as Gibson owns an elite 54% groundball rate on the year. It gets better. Over his last seven starts, Gibson’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is an extraordinary 58%/12%/30% with a WHIP of 1.01.
Cody Anderson has a 1.40 ERA over his last three starts. The market recognizes that for sure, which is why Minnesota is underpriced today. Thing is, Anderson has a mere 38 K’s in 78 frames. Over his last 30 innings, he has walked 12 batters and struck out 18. His 1.40 ERA over his last three starts is the direct result of a 90% strand rate. Anderson's seemingly solid sub-3.50 ERA belies his marginal skills, reflected in his 4.1 K’s/9, 4.39 xERA and 5.31 xERA over his past two starts. Minnesota has momentum. They’ve already beaten Cory Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in the first two games of this series and take a massive step down in class here.
Larry Ness
San Francisco vs. San Diego
Pick: San Francisco
San Francisco had its six-game winning streak over the Padres snapped in Wednesday's 5-4 loss. The Giants fell seven games back of NL West-leading Los Angeles with 11 remaining and they sit 9 1/2 behind the Chicago Cubs for the league's second wild-card spot. "Look, the thoughts aren't good," said Jake Peavy, who pitched six scoreless innings Wednesday. "I'm not going to sit here and tell you I feel great about our chances. That being said, we're not eliminated and we needed them all for a while now. When you lose one like this it is tough, and staring those numbers in the face, it is harsh reality. It stinks to be in this position, but you have to be a professional and play as hard as you can and show up (Thursday) and figure out a way to get the big boy (Bumgarner) in the win column."
Peavy is right, the Giants are 'toast' (it's an odd-numbered year, right?) but Bumgarner can become the Giants' first 19-game winner in 18 years with a win tonight in San Diego. He's 18-8 with a 2.84 ERA on the season, after going 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA over his last nine starts. He's tossed three complete games over that stretch, including a one-hitter in an 8-0 win over San Diego on September 12 to match his career high in wins set last year. He also came four outs shy of his first perfect game. Another victory would make him the first Giant to reach 19 since Shawn Estes in 1997 and he may get a chance to become the club's first 20-game winner since John Burkett and Bill Swift both did it in 1993.
A concern here is that while Bumgarner is 2-0 with an 0.76 ERA in his last three matchups with the Padres, those all came at home. Bumgarner is 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA in his last five games at Petco Park and had his worst performance of the season there April 11, surrendering five runs and 10 hits in three innings.Let me add right here that San Diego starter Ian Kennedy is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in four starts against the Giants at Petco.
However, Kennedy is 0-4 with a 5.52 ERA over his last five starts (Padres are 0-5) and that includes being tagged for seven runs and seven hits in 4.2 innings while losing to Bumgarner on September 12 in San Francisco. Kennedy is 8-15 with a 4.29 ERA in 2015, with the Padres going 11-17 (minus-$643).
San Francisco's 'cry' these last 10 days will be "wait 'til next year," but tonight, why not get last year's World Series MVP win No. 19 and then for good measure, win No. 20 next week?
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Colorado
Pick: Colorado +120
After a couple of decades of struggles, the Pittsburgh Pirates have now clinched what will be their third straight playoffs appearance. It may make things emotionally challenging for this team, taking a breath after the clinching win last night. It might be even more difficult knowing they have beaten the Rockies in three straight, and looking for the four-game sweep. It won't be easy as the Rockies own a home dog winning percentage at Coors Field of better than .500, and in the last dozen years, just one team has been able to sweep them four straight games at home. The Pirates have certainly not been a lock (pardon the pun), behind Locke on the road, where they own just a 4-9 record in his last 13 road starts. Take the home team Rockies.
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner for Thursday is the Mets and Reds to slip Over the total.
Looked like a sure Under last night between the Braves and the Mets, but the Mets shaky bullpen imploded in a big way, and New York once again played Over the total.
The Mets are now on a 25-12-1 Over run their last 38 games played!
The Reds have also been playing them high to close out the year, as 7 of their last 10 have gone Over the total, as have 10 of their past 15 overall.
While Mets starter Steven Matz has been stingy - 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA - in his limited time on the hill this season, his counterpart Josh Smith has been serving them up in his limited time up with the big club, as Smith has gone 0-2 with an over 7 ERA this season, and all 4 of his starts with Cincinnati have played Over the total.
Mets need to get some runs and some confidence back as October approaches, so let's look for them to light up the Reds and Smith tonight.
3* N.Y. METS-CINCINNATI OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the White Sox and the Yankees to stay Under the total in the Bronx with Chris Sale and Michael Pineda doing the mound-work.
Throw out the 3-0 Over mark in the series this year, as New York has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the total, and they are facing a pitcher who has always slowed them.
Chris Sale may be on an 0-3 season slide, but he should get healthy tonight against the Yankees, as the lanky southpaw totes in a 3-0 mark with a 0.79 ERA in his 5 starts against New York.
Michael Pineda will counter and is off a 5-plus innings blanking of the Mets his last time out in a win.
The Pale Hose have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the total, while the Yanks are on a 5-2 Under run their last 7 times on the field.
Go Low at Yankee Stadium tonight.
4* WHITE SOX-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Coach Fletcher
Oakland Athletics -145
Hamels is on a run with the Rangers. He’s 4-0 with Texas in his last 7 starts and the Rangers have won all 7 games.
The Pitchers
Hamels, Texas
Hamels is 10-8 on the year with a 3.67 era. On the road Hamels is 6-6 with a 4.24 era. In his last 3 starts Hamels is 2-0 with a 3.43 era. He’s 0-1 with a 2.25 era against Oakland but hasn’t faced them since 2011. In his last start he went 7 against the Mariners giving up 1 run on 7 hits while fanning a dozen M’s. Hamels came over from Philadelphia and made his first start for Texas on August 1. He’s made 9 starts for the Rangers. Since he has been with Texas he’s gone 2-0 at home with a 3.19 era. On the road with Texas he’s 2-1 with a 4.50 era. During the day with Texas he is 1-0 with a 3.00 era. Since the All-Star break Hamels is 4-1 with a 3.73 era,
Bassitt, Oakland
Chris Bassitt is 1-6 but has a sparkling era of just 2.82. His last start was back in August where he allowed 4 runs in 4 1/3 innings. Prior to that he went at least 6 innings in each of his previous 7 starts. Bassitt sat out due to a sore right shoulder. Bassitt is very effective at home with a 1-4 record but a 1.89 era. His last 3 starts he’s gone sour with an 0-2 record but an era of only 3.79. He has never faced Texas. SO basically he is coming back on 27 days rest. Bassitt is 0-3 during the day with a 3.33 era.
The Bullpens
Texas – 4.28 on the road ; 43 saves and 15 blown saves
Oakland – 4.03 era ; 24 saves and 22 blown saves
The pitching match-up here is tough. Hamels is a veteran and the kind of guy Texas got just for the stretch drive. He’s responded in the best possible way since he hasn’t lost a game and the Rangers haven’t lost in his starts. This is a great sport for him. Bassitt is hard to figure. Is it bad luck that he has such a fine era but can’t win a game? He’s reminiscent of Shelby Miller. Now that he’s been off almost a month with a sore shoulder on his pitching side, it’s hard to tell what we will get. I think I will take Hamels in this spot. Both pens stink but at least Texas can get a save now and then.
The Hitters
Texas – The Rangers average 4.5 runs per game. On the road they average 4.1 runs per game and vs RHP they score 4.4 rpg. In the past 7 games the offense has averaged a mighty 7.0 runs per game. The Ranger pitching staff has only allowed 4.1 runs in the same stretch. During the day Texas averages4.5 and they score 4.3 in division. Texas has a batting average of .256. They average 8.70 hits per game and 1.04 HR per game. They accrue 13.91 total bases per game and their on base % is .323.
Oakland – Oakland score 4.3 runs per game. They hit the same number at home and average 4.0 against LHP. Oakland’s offense has been bubbling as well scoring 6.1 runs per game. Unfortunately the pitchers have given up an average of 6.1 rpg. Oakland only averages 3.8 during the day but gets 4.6 during division play. Oakland’s batting average is .252. They average 8.71 hits per game and 0.89 HR per game. They get 13.66 total bases per game and their on base % is .312.
There isn’t a great deal of difference in the offensive capabilities of these two teams. I’d be happy to call it a draw. Texas will show why they are leading the AL West in the Odds and Ends.
Odds and Ends
Texas is 81-69 and Oakland is 64-87.
The Rangers have a run differential of 0.00. The A’s have a run differential of Minus 0.1.
Texas is 3-0 as a road favorite of -125 to -150. Oakland is 1-3 as dog +125/+150.
Texas is 42-34 on the road. Oakland is 33-42 at home.
Texas is 13-7 in September. The A’s are 6-13 in September.
The Rangers are a disturbing 31-36 in division play. Oakland is 30-38.
Texas is 21-21 in day games. Oakland is 24-32.
Texas is 51-40 against RHP. Oakland is 15-29 against LHP.
Texas is 55-58 against teams with losing records.
Oakland is 52-67 against teams with winning records.
Coach’s Conclusion:
It is clear looking at these numbers that these are 2 entirely different level of teams despite any statistics. Texas handles RHP and Oakland does not handle LHP. Hamels is a veteran who has been in situations like this before. Bassitt is coming off almost a month on the DL. This is a chance to get Texas at a generous number here considering the differences in these two teams. I like the Rangers.
GoodFella
Memphis TT Over 38
I fully expect this Tigers high powered offense to move the ball well and put up a lot of points against this Cincy defense this evening. The Tigers have a very balanced offense. They run the ball very well & that opens up their pass game. I look for a very explosive night on offense from these Tigers, behind their rowdy home crowd, as this is also the Tigers 1st HOME game of the young season.
Bruce Marshall
Orioles at Nationals
Pick: Over
No telling what might transpire tonight at Nats Park, with the umps on close watch after Jonathan Papelbon caused a ruckus by throwing at Manny Machado in the 9th inning last night. What we do know is that the Nats are frustrated, and that the Orioles' offense has stirred in the last week. We also have little faith in either starting pitcher, the Birds' young Tyler Wilson, hit hard by the Rays in his last outing, or the Nats' Tanner Roark and his 4.73 ERA.
Doug Upstone
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants -156
Play On favorites with a money line of -150 or more like SAN FRANCISCO, hitting .255 to .269 as a team, against an ordinary NL starting pitcher (ERA range of 4.20 to 5.20), with a starting a pitcher who is working on five or five days rest. Take a good-sized favorite like the Giants, who swing the bats fairly well, against a shaky starter and have their pitcher, well rested and you end up with the fave at 47-10 the past five years.
ASA
Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Cleveland Indians +122
After dropping five in a row last week the wild card hopes looked dead for the Twins but they have won three in a row to climb within a game of the Astros for the final AL spot. For a moment the Indians appeared ready to move into that conversation but losing the last two nights likely extinguishes those hopes but Cody Anderson should give the Tribe a good chance to win tonight. Anderson started his career with four dominant starts before running into four rough starts in a row. After sitting out of the rotation for a few weeks he has re-emerged with five straight strong outings with Cleveland winning four of those five games. Anderson is not a high strikeout pitcher but he has allowed just 65 hits in nearly 78 innings of work and he has excelled pitching on the road. Kyle Gibson has been the most reliable starter for the Twins but he is also the highest priced despite basically league average results on the season. Gibson has allowed three or more runs in three of his last four starts and the Twins are 15-15 behind him. Missing Michael Brantley has been a big part of the halt of the surge for the Indians but it sounds as if he is likely to return tonight and last night was the first time in eight tries that the Indians had lost again after a loss in what has been a strong late season run. Anderson offers a higher ceiling on the mound tonight and this is a great value flip as Cleveland was a road favorite in the first two games of this series.