Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 24,2009

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

(4) Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at South Carolina (2-1, 3-0 ATS)

The Rebels bring the school’s highest ranking in 40 years into their SEC opener against Steve Spurrier and South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C.

Ole Miss, ranked fourth in the nation, crushed Southeastern Louisiana 52-6 in a non-lined home game Saturday. The Rebels have now rattled off eight straight victories (6-1 ATS) since mid-October a season ago, their longest winning streak since taking 10 in a row in the 1971-72 campaign.

Houston Nutt’s squad is led by Heisman-candidate quarterback Jevan Snead who threw for 209 yards and three TDs on Saturday and has thrown for two or more scores in eight straight games. The Ole Miss defense is also solid, as it showed on Saturday when it allowed just 86 rushing yards on 30 attempts, forced five turnovers and stopped Southeastern Louisiana on all 14 third-down attempts.

South Carolina bounced back from a tough SEC loss at Georgia and beat Florida Atlantic 38-16 on Saturday, narrowly covering as a 20½-point home favorite. The ‘Cocks gained 516 total yards on Saturday, including 287 on the ground after managing just 222 in the first two games combined. Jarvis Giles led the way with 113 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown.

The Gamecocks are 3-0 ATS this season, covering as underdogs in their first two games, both on the road. QB Stephen Garcia has piled up the yards so far with 683 passing yards, but just three TDs and two INTs.

South Carolina edged Ole Miss 31-24 last season as a two-point road ‘dog. The win snapped the Gamecocks’ four-game losing streak (2-2 ATS) to the Rebels and continued the 5-0 ATS run for the road team in this series.

Ole Miss is riding several positive ATS streaks, including 16-5 overall, 8-1 on the road, 9-2 against winning teams, 4-0 as chalk, 3-1 in September and 4-1 in SEC battles. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are on pointspread runs of 5-2 in SEC play, 6-2-1 in September games and 12-5 following an ATS win, but they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven as a home ‘dog and 0-4 ATS in their last four against winning teams.

The Rebels are on “under” streaks of 5-0 in SEC contests and 9-4 as a favorite. Meanwhile, South Carolina has stayed under the total in seven of its last nine at home, but is otherwise on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-2 in SEC action and 16-3 at home against teams with winning road marks.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (78-73) at San Francisco (82-70)

The Giants try to keep their faint playoff hopes alive when they send Brad Penny (10-9, 5.35 ERA overall; 3-1, 4.01 with San Francisco) to the AT&T Park mound in the opener of a weekend series against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (10-8, 3.72).

San Francisco completed a six-game N.L. West road trip with Wednesday’s 5-2 victory in Arizona and in the process shaved a game off Colorado’s lead in the wild-card race. The Giants, who split their six games on the trip, are tied with the Marlins and Braves in the wild-card standings, four games behind the Rockies.

San Francisco is just 6-8 in its last 14 games overall (3-5 at home), but otherwise is on positive upticks of 45-21 as a home favorite, 11-5 versus the Central Division, 5-1 in series openers and 6-1 against right-handed starters.

Chicago had a three-game winning streak halted with last night’s 3-2 loss in Milwaukee. The Cubs, who had scored 23 runs during their brief winning streak, are just 3-3 on their current nine-game road trip and 3-5 in their last eight overall. Additionally, Chicago is in funks of 17-41 as an underdog, 2-7 versus the N.L. West, 2-10 against winning clubs and 10-25 on the road versus winning teams.

These squads have played just two games against each other this season, both at Wrigley Field, and they split the contests. Chicago is a modest 10-6 in 16 meetings since the start of the 2007 season (4-3 at AT&T Park).

Dempster is 4-1 in his last six starts, with the no-decision coming at St. Louis on Saturday when the veteran right-hander scattered a run on eight hits in eight innings, with Chicago eventually falling 2-1. Dempster has thrown at least six innings in 10 straight starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of those contests. He’s 3-7 with a 4.26 ERA and four saves in 20 games (10 starts) against San Francisco, with one of the victories coming on May 4 at Wrigley Field, as Dempster yielded two runs in seven innings of a 4-2 win.

Despite a solid 3.43 ERA, Dempster is just 4-5 in 16 road starts this season, with the Cubs supporting him with a paltry 3.4 runs per game. With Dempster on the bump, Chicago is in ruts of 3-11 on the road, 2-8 as an underdog and 3-7 in series openers, but the Cubs are 5-1 in his last six starts versus N.L. West opponents.

Penny delivered three consecutive outstanding starts after signing with the Giants at the start of this month (four runs allowed in 22 innings for a 1.64 ERA). However, he got destroyed by his former team at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, surrendering seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings of a 12-1 defeat.

Penny is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his two outings with the Giants at AT&T Park. Also, he’s enjoyed facing Chicago over the years, going 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA in nine starts.

Chicago carries “under” trends of 9-4-2 on the road, 11-5-1 in series openers, 6-2-2 as an underdog, 3-1-1 on Thursday, 3-0-1 against the N.L. West, 6-1-1 versus teams with a winning record and 4-1 when Dempster is an underdog. Conversely, the over for the Giants is on stretches of 9-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 against right-handed starters and 3-0 with Penny pitching, yet the under is 4-0 in San Francisco’s last four against the N.L. Central and 8-3 in its last 11 on Thursday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit (81-70) at Cleveland (61-90)

The Tigers look to make it a three-game sweep over the Indians when they send ace right-hander Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.44) to the mound at Progressive Field in Cleveland opposite righty Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 9.64).

Detroit has followed a three-game losing streak with three straight wins, including Wednesday’s 11-3 blowout of the Indians. The Tigers have now won five straight against the Tribe, and they’ve taken 13 of 17 against them this season.

The Tigers, who are 2½ games ahead of the Twins in the race for the A.L. Central crown, head to Chicago for a three-game weekend set with the White Sox after today’s contest. Jim Leyland’s squad is just 4-7 in its last 11 against division foes and 2-6 in its last eight as a road favorite, but 7-2 in the last nine on the road against right-handed starters.

The Indians have now dropped 10 straight and failed to score more than four runs in any of the 10 contests. They are on further slides of 3-19 overall, 1-7 at home, 3-14 against right-handed starters, 0-6 against division opponents and 2-15 as a ‘dog.

Verlander takes his fourth stab at his 17th victory after going 0-2 in his last three outings with a 4.87 ERA. On Saturday he gave up five runs on nine hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss in Minnesota. He has dominated Cleveland in three outings this season, allowing a combined one run on nine hits over 23 innings. The last time he pitched at Progressive, he threw a complete-game, two-hit shutout, striking out 11 in a 1-0 Detroit win.

With Verlander on the hill, the Tigers are on positive streaks of 43-19 after he gets four days off and 20-7 when he starts the third game of a series.

Carrasco is making just his fourth career start, with the Indians looking for their first win with him on the mound. He’s allowed a combined 16 runs (15 earned) over 14 innings as Cleveland has lost to the Tigers, Rangers and Royals. Against the Tigers in Detroit, he gave up six runs on nine hits (three home runs) in just three innings of an 8-5 loss.

When Verlander is on the hill, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 12-4 on Thursdays, 6-2-1 after four days off and 5-1 against teams with losing records. As a team, Detroit has topped the total in eight of 11 as a favorite, eight of 10 against losing teams and four of six against right-handed starters. On the flip side, Cleveland is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 21-10-1 at home, 10-4-1 as a home ‘dog, 6-1-1 on Thursdays and 8-3-2 against division opponents.

Finally, this series has stayed under the total in 10 of the last 15 overall and five of the last eight in Cleveland.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT