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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 24,2009

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Jeff Scott Sports
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3 UNIT PLAY
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Ole Miss -3 over SOUTH CAROLINA
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Mississippi start the year with their highest preseason ranking ever and have moved up since, after beating Memphis and SE LA, but we really don't know how legit their top 5 ranking is yet. I'm here to tell ya that this team is a solid top 5 team and will prove it with an easy win over a SC squad that has been incosistent to start the year. The Rebels hold the edges on both sides of the bal and are anxious to show people that they really deserve the high ranking. This one should be easy.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:35 am
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Brian Hansen
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Mississippi at South Carolina
Prediction: Under
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Under is 7-4 in Rebels' last 11 road lined games. Under is 8-5 in Gamecocks' last 13 home lined games. Want more? Under is 4-1 last 5 times South Carolina played on a Thursday. Go Under!

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:53 am
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Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs open a four-game set with the Giants when they send Ryan Dempster to the hill against Brad Penny at AT&T Park tonight. Dempster enters tonight's fray with wins in four of his last six team starts and two of his last three against San Francisco. On the flip side, Penny checks in 2-6 in his last eight starts against the Cubbies, including 0-4 his last four at home. Back the steadier serves of Dempster and the Cubs here tonight.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:54 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have their ace going tonight. Felix Hernandez takes the mound tonight. Over his last 3 starts he has a 0.78 era allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 innings. In his road starts the Mariners are 12-5 and he has a solid 1.90 road era. He is 5-1 vs A.L. East opponents this year. Toronto counters with lefty Romero. In Romero home starts he has a 4.42 era nearly 3 runs higher than Hernanadez road starts. He has pitched much better in day games than at night this year. The Bluejays are 13-31 as a home dogs in this range and 18-34 vs winning teams in the second half. Look for Seattle to get game 1 of this series this tonight.Take the Mariners tonight.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:56 am
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MTi Sports
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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers are 9-0 THIS season when Justin Verlander starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game and the Indians are not much for revenge vs the opponents starter, going 0-11 (-4.1 rpg) when they lost the last time they faced their opponent?s starting pitcher. In addition, the Tribe is 0-8 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started. Consider laying this big price.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:56 am
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JIM FEIST

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
TAKE: OVER

Milwaukee is a good offensive park and two of the better offenses meet in this one. The Phillies are No. 1 in runs scored in the NL while the Brewers are 5th. Lefty J.A. Happ has a dynamite start to the season, but has tired out a bit after topping the 140 innings pitch mark. He is 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA his last three starts. Milwaukee starter Jeff Suppan has below average stuff and lifetime is 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA against the Phillies. Play the Phillies/Brewers over the total.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:57 am
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DAVE COKIN

CHICAGO CUBS / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
TAKE: CHICAGO CUBS

The Cubs won' be in the playoffs, but at least they're closing the season respectably. This seems to be a happier team now that perpetual pain in the butt Milton Bradley has been sent home and they've got a hot pitcher hurling here in Ryan Dempster. The Giants counter with Brad Penny, who got hit hard last time out and may be wearing down as he did earlier in Boston. I'll back the Cubs to capture the series opener.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:58 am
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Tony Mathews

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Selection: Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs will use starting pitcher Ryan Dempster. Ryan Dempster has been pitching well as of late. In fact, Ryan Dempster has a 2.01 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Ryan Dempster pitching another great game today.

The San Francisco Giants will use starting pitcher Brad Penny. Brad Penny has struggled as of late. In fact, Brad Penny has a 5.94 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Brad Penny giving up many runs once again today.
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We will gladly side with the team who will be led by the better starting pitcher.
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Take the Chicago Cubs

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 7:59 am
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HENTAI SPORTS
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Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners have their ace going tonight. Felix Hernandez takes the mound tonight. Over his last 3 starts he has a 0.78 era allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 innings. In his road starts the Mariners are 12-5 and he has a solid 1.90 road era. He is 5-1 vs A.L. East opponents this year. Toronto counters with lefty Romero. In Romero home starts he has a 4.42 era nearly 3 runs higher than Hernanadez road starts. He has pitched much better in day games than at night this year. The Blue Jays are 13-31 as a home dogs in this range and 18-34 vs winning teams in the second half. Look for Seattle to get game 1 of this series this tonight.

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:00 am
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Michael Cannon

Cincinnati -125 at PITTSBURGH

I’m now 6-1 with my last seven overall free plays after the Reds blowout win over the Pirates yesterday!

Why mess with a good thing?

Let’s take the Reds again over the Pirates this afternoon.

The Buccos are 3-22 in their last 25 games and have dropped five in a row. They haven’t even been competitive in their last three games, giving up 33 runs while scoring just 12.

The Reds will start Bronson Arroyo, who is 13-13 on the year with a 4.04 ERA. The right-hander is 1-1 in his last three starts with a 2.45 ERA. Arroyo beat the Pirates in his only start against them this year, pitching eight shutout innings and allowing only four hits.

The Pirates will counter with Charlie Morton, who is 4-8 with a 5.00 ERA on the year.

Cincinnati is finishing strong while the Pirates are losing at a historical rate.

Take the Reds as they grab the road win.

5♦ CINCINNATI

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:03 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Philadelphia -130 at MILWAUKEE

Hit my third straight FREE winner on Wednesday when the Tigers beat up the White Sox in Chicago. Tonight I've got another comp play from the diamond as I go with the Phillies laying a little chalk in Milwaukee.

Philadelphia went to Florida and didn't do what it was supposed to and have let the Braves and Marlins hang around in this division and wildcard chase. Atlanta is 6.5 games back while Florida is 7 back in the division.

The Phillies lost two of three to the Marlins and now head to Milwaukee to close out this nine-game road trip. The Brewers have won six of their last eight overall and two of three against Philadelphia way back in April.

My favorite Phillies' pitcher is on the hill tonight in lefty J.A. Happ (10-4, 2.77 ERA) who is an amazing 6-2 on the road with a 1.91 ERA. This kid steps up and delivers away from home and does it by going after hitters and spotting his pitches. Philadelphia has won five of his last seven starts and they've won four of his last five outings on the road.

Friday, Happ only went three innings in Atlanta, but only allowed one run in the 9-4 Phillies' win. He's never faced the Brewers but he'll be ready to dominate them.

Jeff Suppan (7-10, 4.76) is on the hill for the Brewers, who have lost seven of his last nine starts. One of the wins was on Saturday against the Astros when he allowed two runs on five hits in seven innings of the 7-2 victory. He didn't have any luck against the Phils last year, allowing 12 runs over 13.2 innings of work, and teams he's started for have dropped eight straight to Philadelphia, includig three starts with the Cardinals.

The Phils are 8-3 in their last 11 overall and they are one of the league's best road teams, going 29-14 as a road favorite. This is an easy winner with Philadelphia.

4♦ PHILADELPHIA

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:03 am
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Karl Garrett

Cubs +110 at SAN FRANCISCO

G-Man taking the road dog Cubbies this Thursday night in the City by the Bay.

Going to back the Cubs tonight at San Francisco.

Chicago will send Ryan Dempster to the mound to face Brad Penny, and Dempster is working on 16 innings of one-run ball his last pair of starts, good enough for a 1-0 mark.

Dempster also owns a win over San Francisco in his lone start against them this year, going 7 innings while allowing 2 runs to score in a May 4th victory.

The Giants are continuing to fight until the end, but Brad Penny's last start of 3 innings and 7 runs allowed to the Dodgers has me a little concerned with his psyche tonight against the Cubs, and Chicago has won 3 of their last 4.

3♦ CUBS

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:04 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Seattle -150 over TORONTO

The Red Sox hammered the Royals on Wednesday, just as I said they would, giving me a run-line winner on my complimentary selection. And I'm staying in the AL to pick up another run-line victory today.

Mariners ace Felix Hernandez (16-5, 2.45 ERA) is making a run for the Cy Young Award this year. While he probably will finish second to Kansas City's Zack Greinke, Hernandez is 4-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last five outings, and has allowed two earned runs in 31 innings over his last four games.

The 23-year-old right-hander gave up two runs (one earned) and eight hits Friday in a complete-game victory over the Yankees.

Hernandez is 9-2 with a major league-best 1.90 ERA in 17 road starts this season. He is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA in five career starts vs. Toronto.

Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero (12-9, 4.28) seems to be hitting the wall in his first big-league season. He is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA in his last nine outings, and has lost two straight starts.

The left-hander actually beat Hernandez and the Mariners on July 27 despite allowing four runs and 10 hits in six innings. Romero is 8-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 home starts this season.

Hernandez has made 10 consecutive quality starts since his loss to the Blue Jays, and I expect him to continue that run as he tries to overtake Greinke in the Cy Young voters' eyes. Take the Mariners on the run line today.

3♦ SEATTLE -1.5

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:04 am
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Jeff Benton

Detroit at CLEVELAND

For Thursday, I’ll play the Tigers and Justin Verlander on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Indians.

Obviously, this game means a whole lot more to Detroit, which leads the Twins by 2½ games in the A.L. Central, than it does Cleveland, which is dead last in the division (yep, even behind the Royals). The Indians have dropped 10 straight games, including the first two in this series by scores of 3-1 and 11-3. Going back further, the Tribe are 1-14 in their last 15 and 3-19 in their last 22 (3-8 at home).

Included in Cleveland’s 3-19 freefall is five straight losses to these Tigers by the combined tally of 30-16 (with four of the five defeats coming by multiple runs). In fact, only four of Cleveland’s last 23 defeats have been by one run.

How does that trend not continue tonight against Verlander? Sure, the All-Star hasn’t been his usual dominant self lately, but he’s still 16-9 with a 3.44 ERA. That includes 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Indians – he’s given up just one run on nine hits in 23 innings versus Cleveland with a 30-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Talk about unhittable! Even more impressive, the Indians still had guys like Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore around for those three games.

If all that isn’t enough to love Detroit in this one, this should be: The Indians are going with rookie Carlos Carrasco on the mound. All Carrasco has done in three starts is give up 16 runs (15 earned) in 14 innings (9.64 ERA), with the Indians losing all three games by scores of 7-0, 11-9 and 8-5. That latter score? Yep, it came at Detroit on Sept. 1, when the Tigers touched up Carrasco for six runs (three homers) on nine hits in three innings.

All Detroit and Verlander in this one and I’ll call for an 8-2 final.

5♦ DETROIT -1.5

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:05 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Detroit at CLEVELAND

A push on last night's free play on LA-Washington OVER the total, so the free play run is now 37-22-4 the last 63 days.

Have to play the Tigers on the RUN LINE this Thursday night, as Cleveland is just an abortion right now.

Last night's 11-3 pounding by Detroit dropped the Tribe to 0-10 their last 10 games. That's right, 10 straight losses, and we don't see a win in sight tonight, as the Tigers have absolutely owned the Indians all season long.

Detroit is 6-2 now at Progressive Field, and 13-4 overall in the season series against Cleveland.

Verlander has been hit hard his last 2 times to the bump, but in 3 starts this year against Cleveland, he is 3-0 with 1 earned run allowed in 23 innings of work.

Carlos Carrasco is 0-2 in his 3 starts at this level, and his ERA is close to 10.

No dount about it, this game looks like another 11-3 final tonight.

Take the Tigers on the RUN LINE.

2♦ DETROIT -1.5

 
Posted : September 24, 2009 8:05 am
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