EZWINNERS
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Mississippi Rebels @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Play: Mississippi Rebels -175
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I hate to go against home underdogs on Thursday night, especially SEC home underdogs, but I like Ole Miss to get it done here. The Rebels are the better team and if it turns into a scoring fest I like the Rebels offense with quarterback Jevan Snead over the Gamecocks and Stephen Garcia. South Carolina lost their entire secondary from last year and Georgia exposed that secondary big time. Florida Atlantic even passed for over 200 yards against the Cocks. Steve Spurrier is only 3-7-1 as a home underdog at Carolina and Ole Miss has revenge on their minds. Play Ole Miss on the moneyline.
Johnny Guild
Ole Miss Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks
Play: Ole Miss Rebels -3.5
The solid Gamecocks defense will have a big task against the Rebels high powered offense led by Jevan Snead and a talented receiving core. Ole Miss is rank third in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 48.5 points per game. Take Ole Miss. The Rebels are the better team and have won five of the last six clashes versus the Gamecocks. Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.
Tony George
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Not a bad line on Philly, and although they send a left hander to the hill in J.A. Happ, whom Milwaukee is solid at hitting southpaws at over .344 as a team their last 10 games, his ERA season long is 2.77 and he is a solid starter. After last nights blown effort in the 9th against the Marlins, with travel today, I expect the defending world champs to win this game on the road. At just over 30 cents on the moneyline, oddsmakers feel this will be a struggle off a loss with travel, I do not.
The Phillies are on an 8-3 run right now and have slipped somewhat with their bullpen, but I feel they continue to build momentum into the playoffs run with about 9 games left in the regular season. They also are playing with revenge as back in April, the Brew Crew took 2 out of 3 from them at home. Philly also has a better road record than Milwaukee does at home!
PLAY on Philly
Rocketman
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco
Play: San Francisco
Chicago Cubs are now 78-73 overall this year while San Francisco comes in with an 82-70 record on the season. The Giants better step it up a notch and get some help from some other teams if they want to make the playoffs. These are definitely must win games for them now. San Francisco has played very well at home with a 48-26 record. San Francisco bullpen has been good this year with a 3.54 ERA overall and a 3.44 ERA at home. Brad Penny has been fairly solid at home with a 7-3 record. Dempster is only 1-7 overall vs San Francisco since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
Randall the Handle
Chicago –1.02 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Cubbies are one of the more frustrating teams to wager on because of their inability to move runners over or get them in from third with less than two outs and subsequently fail to score. However, Brad Penny is on the hill and his implosion last game was inevitable. Penny had allowed just four earned runs in 22 frames in his previous three starts before the Dodgers ripped him apart five days ago. If you throw out his start against the Padres in which he struck out six batters, in his other three starts with the Giants he’s struck out five batters in 18 innings. This guy is just so hittable and if the Giants happen to make it to the post-season, he’ll never see the mound. Furthermore, the Cubs hitters have a solid past against Penny and that’s when he was much better throwing for the Dodgers. The Cubs batters have collectively had 93 AB’s against Penny and they have a batting average of .290. By contrast, the Giants collectively are hitting .235 off Ryan Dempster in 132 AB’s. The Cubbies aren’t playing for much but these major-leaguers love to make life miserable for those that are and definitely get a little more jacked up when faced with an opportunity to prevent a team from going to the playoffs. San Fran with Penny on the hill is an unappealing option indeed. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
LT Profits
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
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Felix Hernandez is one of the main reasons that the Seattle Mariners lead the American League in team ERA, and southpaw Randy Romero of the Toronto Blue Jays should be able to contain a Seattle lineup that has bee terrible vs. lefties lately, resulting in a very low scoring affair.
The All-Star Hernandez is 16-5 with a fantastic 2.45 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 216.1 innings this season, and most importantly he has maintained his raging form. He has recorded 10 consecutive Quality Starts since August 1, and he has incredibly allowed one earned run or less in each of his last four starts.
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Hernandez did have one of his worst starts of the season the last time he faced the Jays in Seattle, as he was touched up for seven runs and 11 hits in 5.2 innings, but he did limit them to one unearned run in eight innings the last time he pitched here in Toronto, so we look for him to get some payback here, especially in his current form.
Now Romero has cooled down after a terrific start this season, but he has still not allowed more than four runs in five of his last six starts, and he is facing a Mariners lineup that is batting a pathetic .174 vs. left-handed pitching over the last 10 games. In fact, Seattle is dead last in the American League with a .256 team batting average overall, so Romero should be able to do his part to keep this game Under.
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Finally, the Under is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, so look for that pattern to continue.
Pick: Mariners, Blue Jays Under 7.5
Tom Freese
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Under
Philadelphia is 30-14 UNDER their last 44 games vs. righty starters and they are 43-21-2 UNDER when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. The Phillies are 19-4-1 UNDER in the last 24 starts made by J.A. Happ and they are 13-3 UNDER off a loss. Milwaukee is 10-1-1 UNDER their last 12 home games and they are 8-2 UNDER their last 10 home games vs. winning teams. The Brewers are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games as underdogs and they are 23-8 UNDER the last 31 starts made by Jeff Suppan vs. winning teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -186
Bottom Line: I'll back the Rockies in this bounce back spot with the better starter on the hill tonight. The Rockies are 17-11 when Hammel starts this season, including 10-3 at home. And he has been at his best over his last 3 starts, posting a 3.98 ERA and a WHIP of only 0.885. The Rockies are 6-0 in Hammel's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, the Rockies should have the edge at the plate against the lefty Richard as they are 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Also, the Padres are only 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. Take the Rockies.
Freddy Wills
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Take Reds -124
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I like the Reds again today they have scored 32 runs in their last 3 games and we are seeing the team they though they'd have on the field all year healthy. The Pirates are probably the worst day team it's hard to actually dig up their records, but I was able to dig this up. During day play the Pirates average just .236 (.260 @ night) and create just 3.54 runs per 27 outs (4.50 @ night). Reds are pretty much the same at day or night.
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It will be a pitching match up of Morton vs. Arroyo and I'm going with the veteran, better hitting, and better bullpen team again here. Before I get into why I'd like to say Morton has impressed me at home and on the road he has been awful. Actually in Pitt he has a 2.76 ERA in 7 game starts. However, he's a young pitcher and during his 3 day starts he has a 16.20 ERA so I'll be playing that angle here today. I actually faced Morton back in high school and it seems as though his control is still not there as he had 4 walks against the Reds the last time these two faced giving up 6 ER on 9/1. As I also mentioned the Reds are hot scoring 32 runs in their last 3 games and I think it continues this afternoon.
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Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and although he too does not pitch necessarily well during day start I don't think he will have to. Plus I don't see the Pirates scoring runs here or anything as they are scoring just 2.52 runs per 9 innings in their last 10 vs. RHP. They are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. RH starter and the Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 match ups. Arroyo is on fire right now and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last three starts. He had a start against the Reds early in the year when he went 8 strong innings giving up 0 ER on 4 hits. Reds are 11-1 in their last 12 when an opponent scores 2 runs or less in previous game. Look for Arroyo to take advantage of this trend and the weak offensively challenged Pirates this afternoon.
John Ryan
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San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Diego Padres
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SD as they face Colorado set to start at 8:40 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-17 making 36.9 units since 1997. Play against all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 and is an average hitting team batting = .255 to .269 facing an average NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. SD is 11-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. Colorado is 6-12 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season; 10-20 (-15.5 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher since 1997.
BIG AL
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Chicago at San Francisco
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After cruising along in his first three starts with the Giants and looking like the Big Brad Penny of old, the ten-year veteran righthander ran into some not-so-friendly fans of his former team in his last start in Los Angeles and got clobbered by his former Dodger teammates in what was by far his worst start since coming back over to the National League at the end of August. But look for Penny to rebound tonight as he is 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA lifetime against the Cubs and has really enjoyed pitching thus far at AT&T Park, where he's 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts since joining San Francisco. Chicago will hand the ball to Ryan Dempster for his 29th start of the season, and Dempster did not get a decision in his last start, despite going eight innings against the Cards in St. Louis. It was his 10th consecutive start of six or more innings, and second consecutive outing of eight innings. But it's been an extremely uneven season for Dempster and despite an overall record of 10-8, Dempster has struggled a bit on the road, winning only four of 16 starts away from Wrigley and the Cubs are only 4-12 in those away starts. In the Dodger debacle, Penny complained that he wasn't throwing decent off-speed pitches, which hampered his performance significantly, something which he should be able to easily correct tonight at home.
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PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
Jr Tips
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Mariners at Blue Jays
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Felix Hernandez, the AL Cy Young Award hopeful looks for a fifth straight victory when the Mariners open a four-game road series with the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. The 23-year-old Hernandez (16-5, 2.45 ERA) has become the ace of a Seattle staff that leads the majors with a 3.91 ERA.Hernandez is second in the AL in ERA and tied for third in wins.The right-hander is 4-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last five starts and has allowed two earned runs in 31 innings over his last four. Hernandez padded his Cy Young resume by giving up an earned run and eight hits in a 3-2 win over New York on Friday for his second complete game this season.Ichiro Suzuki is batting a career-high .355 against Toronto and is 8 for 13 versus the Blue Jays this season. Toronto's Ricky Romero (12-9, 4.28) looks to avoid losing his third consecutive start after he gave up four runs in six innings for the second consecutive outing with seven hits and four walks in a 4-0 loss at Tampa Bay on Saturday.The left-hander is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA his last nine starts. Hernadez is hot winning 5 straight going for the Cy young while Romero is wearing down late in his first full major-league season.
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TAKE SEATTLE-150
Bob Harvey
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Dusty Baker has his Cincinnati Reds playing hard to close out their 2009 season. The Pirates? Not so much. Back Bronson Arroyo and the Redlegs in a Pittsburgh matinee.
The Cincinnati Reds look to continue their dominance of the Pirates today when the two teams wrap up their three-game series in Pittsburgh.
Cincy has had the Bucs' number this season beating them eight straight times. Call it the Dusty Baker effect but while Pittsburgh seems to have built up a resistance to winning, the Reds are scrapping like they’re still in a pennant race. The credit goes to Baker for at least instilling a sense of pride in his players.
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Bronson Arroyo puts his 13-13 record on the line for the Redlegs. Arroyo has been a workhouse this season lasting at least seven innings in all 10 of his starts since August. Over that stretch Arroyo is 3-3 but has a superb 2.06 ERA. In his last three starts the veteran righthander has an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 0.91. On the negative side, Arroyo is prone to the gopher ball having allowed 30 homeruns in 205 innings of work.
Former Atlanta Braves prospect Charlie Morton draws the starting assignment for Pittsburgh. Morton has been up and down since the Pirates got him in the Nate McClouth deal. He’s 4-8 with an ERA of 5.00 but is coming off a strong outing last Friday night against the Padres. In that game Morton gave up a run and six hits over seven strong innings.
This is a good example of two also-rans headed in different directions. Pittsburgh has lost 24 of its last 29 games while Cincinnati has gone 20-10 and are tied with Houston for fourth in the Albert Pujols division. Seven of the Pirates’ losses have come to the Reds.
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With nothing on the line for neither team, the Reds are still playing hard while the Pirates are counting the days until the season is over. Having Arroyo on the hill gives the Reds an added advantage in my book. This is a great time of the year to make money if you tail or fade the right team. In this case fading the Pirates = $$$$.
Pick: Reds -130
Mr. Vegas Wins
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Mississippi at South Carolina
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A pair of good defenses meet here. South Carolina had one bad defensive game against Georgia, but they were stout last season and in the opener dominated a decent NC State offense, allowing 3 points. Ole Miss likes to run the football and the defense has been terrific under Houston Nutt, plus 8 starters are back on defense. Steve Spurrier wants more balance on offense and is trying freshman tailback Kenny Miles. Likely a lot of running attempts and physical defense.
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Play Ole Miss/South Carolina Under the total.
Stephen Nover
Detroit at CLEVELAND
The Tigers should tee off on Carlos Carrasco, who is making his fourth big league start. Carrasco has had problems getting enough movement on his fastball. The result has been 15 earned runs in 14 innings during his first three starts. He's been tagged for six home runs in those 14 innings.
The Tigers have scored 20 runs in their last three games. Magglio Ordonez is batting above .400 this month after hitting .348 in August.
The key question is how many runs can the Indians put up against Justin Verlander, who leads the American League in strikeouts?
Verlander threw a season-high 128 pitches in his last start on Saturday against the Twins. That was a huge game. The Tigers can't afford to give their ace an extra day of rest because they want him to make two more starts this season instead of one since they are locked into a tight struggle with Minnesota for the AL Central Division title.
Verlander could be vulnerable on four days rest after throwing so many pitches. The over has cashed 11 of the past 15 times Verlander has faced Cleveland.
2♦ Tigers/Cleveland OVER