Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 25

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Oakland at Texas
The Rangers play host to Oakland tonight and come into the contest with a 7-3 record in Colby Lewis' last 10 starts versus the A's. Texas is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125)

Game 901-902: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.839; Cincinnati (Holmberg) 14.209
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Over

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.116; Miami (Koehler) 14.276
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.832; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.712
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+160); Over

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 15.210; Atlanta (Hale) 13.877
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Under

Game 909-910: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.719; San Francisco (Petit) 14.342
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over

Game 911-912: Seattle at Toronto (4:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Wilhelmsen) 13.728; Toronto (Norris) 15.709
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 913-914: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gausman) 16.394; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.308
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under

Game 915-916: Minnesota at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (May) 14.213; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.653
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-300); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-300); Over

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 15.608; Boston (Webster) 14.329
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at Texas (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Hammel) 14.508; Texas (Lewis) 16.998
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145) 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125); Under

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.802; White Sox (Quintana) 14.423
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Over

Game 923-924: NY Mets at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.598; Washington (Treinen) 15.899
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Marc Lawrence

Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern
Play: Appalachian State +16½

Edges - Mountaineers: 16-12-1 SU all-time in this series, including 3-0 the last three years. Eagles: 1-3 SU home last four as a host in this series. With the Mountaineers having held each of their last two foes to season low yards, and GSU having allowed Georgia Tech a season-high 536 yards two weeks ago, the points become the play in this friendly rivalry tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Appalachian State.

Jordan Haimowitz

UCLA vs. Arizona State
Play: UCLA -5½

The Bruins have not looked like the on the rise team everybody was expecting to start the season. They've had plenty of injuries to slow them down with QB Brett Hundley being the main one. However, they play an Arizona State team tonight who does not have the defensive personnel to slow down UCLAs run game. The Bruins will man handle ASUs offensive line and create turnovers. Look for UCLA to show up big in this one.

Sam Martin

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern
Prediction: Appalachian State

Too many points for Georgia State to be laying here, and we'll take the points in what we expect to be a fast game (in terms of minutes played) against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers weren't able to pull off an upset at Michigan as they did a few years back - instead they were crushed 52-14 in the Big House, but since recovered to whip Campbell 66-0 and fell by a single point at Southern Miss last week. We expect the clock to be continuously running, which always helps big underdogs, and for fewer possessions to result in a SU loss but ATS cover by the visitor.

Georgia State nearly upset a pair of ACC teams this season, losing to NC State by a single point and losing late at Georgia Tech after mounting a furious comeback. The Eagles are no doubt the better team here, however, just as we like to take the points with triple-option teams as the game pace favors less possessions and therefore a harder chance to run up the score, the same is true for fading triple-option favorites. Mountaineers should be able to do some damage through the air, and score enough points to stay within this number.

Sleepyj

Arizona St. +4

Look for UCLA to play this one close to the vest here. They haven't shown us that that are an elite bunch yet. They do have a good defense but playing in Tempe is a tall task for any team. The health of UCLA QB Hundley is up in the air. I do think he will play but he will look to not take many hits. They will try to run over this Az St team and limit them with the ball. Az St. on the flip loses it's QB in Taylor Kelly. I thought he had a legit shot at a Heisman. He will be out and he is the biggest threat to throw and run. The backup Qb will not be running like Kelly did. He has been with Az St for 4 years and has a big arm. He will be firing away all game. I'm not sure how much success he will have but he filled the role last week and looked rather comfortable. I look for the Az St defense and crowd to give a spirited effort here. Like i said i'm not sold on UCLA as a team as of yet they need to burn me and make it hurt for me to believe in them. I'll take the home dog here in a close game..31-28 either way..

Tony Stoffo

Appalachian St vs. Georgia Southern
Play: Appalachian St +19.5

Way too much value to pass up on the Mountaineers here in this spot against Georgia Southern. The pass two years Appalachian State has come away with 38-14 and 31-28 wins against the Eagles. Last week this Appalachian State squad outgained Southern Mississippi 455-329 so as you can see this is a very competitive team - Plus in the fact that this it is a big rivalry game, and you can see how the Mountaineers are the solid value release here at this number. Appalachian State plus the points the play here.

Jeffrey James

Arizona State +4.5

UCLA has revenge here and that is a bad thing for them since they have failed to cover in their last 8 on the road with revenge in conference play while Arizona State is 6-1 ATS at home against a conference team with revenge. This has been a home team dominated series lately with the home team covering 5 of the last 7. Have to love the Sun Devils as a home underdog here.

Rocketman

Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern
Play: Georgia Southern -18.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers travel to Georgia Southern to take on the Eagles on Thursday night. Appalachian State is 1-2 SU overall on the season while Georgia Southern comes in with a 2-2 SU record this year. Appalachian State is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS their last 6 road lined games. Georgia Southern is 9-1 ATS since 1992, 6-0 ATS last 3 years and 4-0 ATS this year in all games. Georgia Southern is 7-0 ATS last 7 games on grass. Appalachian State is scoring only 17 points per game on the road while allowing 36.5. Georgia Southern is scoring 43 points per game overall this year and a whopping 83 points per game at home. Georgia Southern gave up only 9 points in their only home game this season. Georgia Southern is averaging 365.8 yards per game on the ground this year and 520.2 yards per game overall this season. We'll recommend a small play on Georgia Southern tonight!

Rocky Atkinson's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

OAKLAND ATHLETICS AT TEXAS RANGERS
PLAY: TEXAS RANGERS +134

The A’s are still in good shape to make the post-season, but they’re anything but a playoff caliber baseball team right now. This team has succumbed to the pressure of what turned into high expectations and the Oakland free fall has been pretty close to unbelievable.

I listened to some post-game comments from A’s skipper Bob Melvin following the latest loss to the Angels, and let’s say he didn’t sound like the most confident guy around., Melvin was talking about the fact that the A’s will be back to 0-0 once the post-season starts, and that’s an old song I’ve heard in the past. But it’s only seemingly sung by coaches or managers whose teams are limping badly into the playoffs, regardless of the sport.

The Athletics have continued to be priced with respect throughout this massive tumble, and that’s the case again tonight. I just can’t see it based on their current form. On the flip side, the suddenly youthful Texas Rangers have caught fire since Ron Washington departed the scene, and I’m sure they’d like to finish the campaign on a high note as well.

Jason Hammel vs. Colby Lewis is the matchup on the mound. Hammel really scuffled after betting dealt west from the Cubs, but he’s been much better lately. Lewis is a back end of the rotation starter who is generally pretty hittable, but is also capable of the occasional big effort. Hammel has to rate the edge as far as this aspect goes.

But beyond that, it’s tough to find much that screams Oakland here. The Rangers are clearly not just playing out the string, and are in fact a red hot baseball team right now. It’s obviously a much bigger game to the visitors, but I cannot justify them as this much chalk. I prefer backing the rolling Rangers to spring the surprise as home dogs.

Jim Feist

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox +124

Chicago is a home dog but has a fine offense, 12th in runs scored and 9th in slugging. Chicago is home from a road trip and the White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Starter Jose Quintana (3.22 ERA) has been impressive all year, allowing 1, 1, 1, and 2 runs the last four games. Quintana tossed a strong 7.1 innings in Friday's 4-3 win over the Rays, allowing three runs (one earned) on nine hits while recording six strikeouts. Chicago has had no trouble hitting James Shields this season, hitting .282 off him in 27 innings. And the White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Golden Retriever

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

We stick with "if it's not broke, don't fix it" strategy as this pick won yesterday. The open line moves a bit to -125 from -110 yesterday, still valuable since Toronto have the upper hand on the mound. The prospect Daniel Norris posted a dominated numbers in the minor league this year, 12 wins, 2 losses, a 2.53 ERA, and 163 strikeouts in 124.2 innings (11.8 K/9). They won't let this 21-year-old kid go too deep for sure, nor will Tom Wilhelmsen for Seattle, who has only 1 start in his career 212 appearances (in which he pitched just 2.2 innings). However, this is the last of the 11-game trip, once they fall behind, the suffering Mariners will be too tired to fight back.

Ben Burns

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Kansas City Royals -134

With James Shields pitching, I'd expect the Royals to be a more heavy favorite, even on the road. Considering what's at stake in the final series of the year (KC looking for its first playoff appearance since '85), I'd expect them to be at their best Thursday. Having Shields on the mound certainly helps.

The Royals did lose yesterday, 6-4 in Cleveland. That kept the Indians alive in the Wild Card hunt. Along with Oakland, Kansas City has a 3-game lead over Seattle and a 3.5 game lead over Cleveland.

Even with Wednesday's loss, the Royals have a better record (44-33) on the road than at home (42-39). That should serve them well as they visit U.S. Cellular Field this weekend for four games. Kansas City has won five of its last six games on the South Side of Chicago. More recently, they took two of three from the White Sox last week.

Shields has been successful in his own right on the road. Over the last two seasons, he is 20-5 with a 2.48 ERA pitching away from Kauffman Stadium. Shields began September by not allowing a run in 15.1 innings, but has since allowed three runs in consecutive starts. While one of those was against the White Sox, fortunately the team still won. The same could not be said for the last time we saw him, which was Saturday vs. Detroit. But those last two starts were at home.

Jose Quintana and the White Sox should simply be no match here. Even though Quintana has pitched well of late, he's not Shields, who has a 0.79 WHIP this month and has dominated Chicago to the tune of a 2.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in four starts.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

UCLA Bruins -4

It’s not typically a wise move to back the road team in a weekday matchup, but I think this is a good spot to gamble on UCLA laying less than a touchdown. Arizona State is undefeated and ranked inside the Top 15 overall, but I don’t know that their ranking is justified. The Sun Devils three opponents so far have been Weber State, New Mexico and Colorado.

In their most recent matchup versus the Buffaloes, Arizona State was actually outgained on the game 545 to 426 or by 119 yards. Had it not been for three Colorado turnovers, including two inside their own territory that resulted in touchdowns for the Sun Devils, the Buffaloes could have potentially won that game outright.

UCLA has not been impressive so far, at least not to the standard that so many expected for a team that almost everyone had winning the Pac-12 South. However, they have played a difficult schedule with their three games coming against Virginia on the road, at home against Memphis and a neutral site showdown versus Texas in Arlington.

Interestingly both of these teams are dealing with injuries to their starting quarterback. Arizona State’s Taylor Kelly is out indefinitely with a foot injury and UCLA’s Brett Hundley is dealing with an injured elbow.

While it’s certain Kelly won’t participate, I think there’s a good chance Hundley will play, as he’s had a full two weeks to recover with the Bruins coming off a bye. Even if Hundley doesn’t play or gets hurt and has to leave this game, I still like UCLA in this one. Backup Jerry Neuheisel was impressive in place of Hundley against Texas, connecting on 23 of 30 attempts for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns.

You also have to take into consideration that UCLA playing with some serious revenge after Arizona State handed them their only home loss of 2013, which essentially kept the Bruins out of the Pac-12 Championship Game. It’s also worth noting that this is not nearly as strong of a Sun Devils team than the one that took the field last year. Arizona State only had 8 starters back and are now without their best player in Kelly.

Rob Vinciletti

Rays vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8½

Both Pitchers are in spots that show the game going over tonight. Webster for Boston has pitched over in 4 of his 5 home starts and with a lousy 7.03 era. In his career vs Tampa he has been terrible with a 7.72 era. J. Hellickson for Tampa has pitched over in 4 of his 5 roast starts. Boston exploded last night winning big over Tampa. That win sets up a totals system that has cashed 21 of 24 times to the over for home dogs off a home dog win by 5+ runs if they scored 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a -140 or higher road favored loss by 5+ runs and scored 4 or less in the loss. Look for this one to play over the total tonight.

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