Nick Parsons
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Diego Padres +140
San Francisco could qualify for the playoffs before the first pitch is thrown in this game. All they need is for Milwaukee to lose to Cincinnati and they are in. They are a game behind Pittsburgh for the first wildcard spot and really can’t afford to rest anybody or can they?
San Diego has been a little hot of late, winning eight of 10, including last weekend's sweep of San Francisco. San Diego followed that by taking two of three from Colorado. San Diego will be sending Andrew Cashner to the mound. He is 5-7 on the year with a very good 2.21 ERA. In his last three starts, he has compiled a 1.50 ERA, winning all three and lasting at least seven innings in each and going the distance once. Cashner is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his past three starts versus the Giants
The Giants have lost eight of 11 and five of six with a .202 batting average and 12 runs. They were outscored 16-4 in their losing weekend in San Diego last week. San Francisco is hoping Yusmeiro Petit can keep them in the game long enough for their bats to wake up. Petit is 5 and 5 on the year with a 3.63 ERA. Petit, though, has been backed by two runs over his past two starts while he's yielded five earned runs with 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. Petit is 1and 3 with a 5.25 ERA in five career starts against the Padres.
I like San Diego in this game. They have the better pitcher and San Francisco just not hitting at the moment. Also the fact that the Giants may already be in the playoffs makes the padres even more likeable.
Steve Janus
Appalachian State +19½
The betting public has jumped all over Georgia Southern, who is a perfect 4-0 ATS, driving this line up from 16.5 to 19.5. I believe it's created some big time value on Appalachian State. What a lot of people don't realize is that these two new Sun Belt foes, have a strong history against each other. Both played in the FCS Southern Conference prior to making the jump to FBS this year.
Being familiar with Georgia Southern's option attack is a huge advantage for Appalachian State. Adding to this is the fact that the Mountaineers have won each of the last 3 meetings in the series, including a 38-14 win last season, which saw them outgain the Eagles by 152 yards (513-363). Both teams have 15 starters back from last year, making it hard to believe that Georgia Southern is all the sudden that much better than Appalachian State. For them to cover this spread, that would essentially be a 41 point swing from last year. I'm not buying the hype on the Eagles and believe the books have really opened the door on this one.
EZWINNERS
Washington Redskins -3
The Redskins offense suddenly has life with Kirk Cousins at quarterback taking over for an injured RGIII. Washington came up short last week, but I expect them to pick up the win this week. The Giants knocked off the Texans on Sunday in New York, but I don't believe that they have fixed all of their issues. New York still made some key mistakes against Houston last week, but the Texans were not able to capitalize on those mistakes. The Texans were without running back Arian Foster which severely limits their offensive production. Without the threat of a running game you are counting on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to win the game throwing the ball which is never a good thing. I also don't expect the Giants to have the same success running the ball this week that they had on Sunday. The Redskins will be a bit thin in the secondary with the loss of DeAngelo Hall to injury, but Washington has greatly improved their run defense. If this becomes an aerial shootout, it will be just a matter of time before Eli throws one to the wrong team. Thursday night road teams have not fared well this season going 0-3 and losing those games be a combined score of 118-36. Lay the points with Washington.
Raphael Esparza
Giants / Redskins Under 46
I want to start a big weekend with a Thursday winner. I have a pair of 6-Unit football winners – one in college and one in the NFL – and I am 5-0 so far this season with my plays of 6.0 or higher. What are you waiting for? The public has already pushed this total up to 46 as the oddsmakers posted this game at 45. The public always bets key TV games over, but again I believe the public is wrong on this game. The Giants defense is not that bad, and last week the Giants held the Texans to 17 points. Washington at times shows that their D is improved, and if you throw away last weeks game you would think this game is a dead under. When these two teams meet the under has been money, going 0-5 O/U in their last 5 meetings. The Giants in their last 19 road games are 5-14 O/U, and the Redskins are 1-6 O/U at home against a team with a losing record.
Jeff Scott Sports
Washington/Giants Under 46: This is normally a tightly contested low scoring game as the Under is 5-0 the last 5 meting and 8 of the last 10 in this series has put up 42 points or less. The Skins were in a shootout with the Eagles last week, but that is not their game. I know they can throw better with Cousins behind center, but this is still a team that is bet when they run the ball and they will have to control the clock to take some pressure off that banged up defense. The Giants go their offense in gear last week and that was because they ran the ball and I will look for them to do that here as well, which will help eat clock, plus will also help to really wear down a Washington defense that is a bit depleted anyway. A couple of teams that should run more than throw and that will keep the clock moving and the scoring down, in what has been a low scoring series between these teams.
MLB Predictions
Detroit Tigers -1.5 -127
This is the biggest square play on the board, I know that. However, I really have no explanation for how the Tigers don't blow the Twins out in this game. Yes I know what you're thinking, the Tigers' bullpen. But even then, I think the lead should be out of hand before the bullpen has a chance to spoil it. This will be the third of fourth time I have faded May this season, or at least, taken an OVER with him pitching. It is easy to see why I have done it. May comes in with a 8.39 ERA tonight, pitching with a 8.55 on the road. His WHIP is also all out of whack at 1.89 and a OBP of .407. The last time the Tigers faced May, they got to him for 11 hits and 5 runs in only 5 innings. For his standards he's been fairly hot lately, posting a 6.89 ERA in his last three starts. Scherzer will counter May, who is having himself a good season, not great as last season, but still the kind of guy that can take over a game. He's pitched for a 3.19 ERA, including a 2.66 at home. Note that Scherzer is 10-1 at home. With the Tigers in the hunt for the Central, going head-to-head against the Royals, these are the types of games you need to bury the opponent. May vs. Scherzer is a matchup the Tigers need to exploit here, and I think they need. Take the Tigers to win by more than a run Thursday night at home.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Pick: Boston +116
There is something about a team that is officially eliminated from the postseason. The Red Sox dealt the final blow last night in an 11-3 route of the Rays, officially putting their postseason aspirations to rest. The loss also assured that the Rays would finish under .500 for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay has appeared to have lost their focus. The Rays' staff did not allow any team to score 10 runs or more since June 5th, but now have done so in two of their last three games. Jeremy Hellickson has now been winless over his last eight starts for the Rays, and has failed to make it out of the sixth inning in five of them. Allen Webster is doing himself well with an opportunity to be part of the Sox rotation next year. Webster has consecutive wins vs. a pair of playoff teams in Kansas City and Baltimore, limiting the Birds to 1 run in his last outing. The Rays are 0-8 in Hellickson's last eight starts, and it appears that the fire is no longer burning with this team.
LT Profits
Tampa Bay vs Boston
Pick: Boston +111
The bats of the Boston Red Sox came alive in an 11-3 upset of the Tampa Bay Rays at +147 odds last night, and although these odds are not as high, we still see value in the Red Sox as home underdogs vs. Jeremy Hellickson. Remember that Hellickson did not make his seasonal debut until July due to elbow problems, and after looking good in his early starts he has regressed lately to a 1-4 record. Granted he has a semi-respectable 3.96 ERA and 1.37 WHIP overall, but he has ballooned to a 6.16 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over his last four starts with 17 strikeouts but 10 walks in 19 innings. Allen Webster is a surprising 4-3 for Boston despite his 5.54 ERA, as he has improved while allowing three earned runs or less in three straight starts. The Rays are 0-8 in Hellickson’s last eight starts overall.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -3½ over N.Y. Giants
The Giants came to life last week with a convincing win over the then 2-0 Texans while Washington not only lost 17-6 to open the season against common foe Houston, but also lost last week, 37-34 in Philly. In fact, Washington’s only victory this year has occurred against the Jaguars, which most people don’t even count. Frankly, we couldn’t care less about all of that. We mentioned last week that the Texans are garbage and they are. Washington’s loss to them in Week 1 was misleading and it also came with RG3 at QB. Kirk Cousins is much better suited to run this ‘Skins offense and has been extremely sharp in two games. Facing the Giants defense is not a step up in class for Cousins and once again he figures to shred a defense that can be dominated. When Griffin was the starter, the Skins only scored six points in the loss in Houston. Under Cousins, they are averaging 38 points a game.Kirk Cousins is everything that Robert Griffin III was supposed to be and isn't. You cannot pin the Philly loss on the offense. This offense looks sharp and that doesn’t figure to change here. We like the Redskins look this year. This team could easily be 3-0 and would be if a couple of bounces or breaks went their way. They had Philly on the ropes last week but a KO return for a TD and a couple of untimely penalties and subsequent game suspensions hurt them. The ‘Skins are on the verge of a big rise in their stock and we’re buying before that happens.
The Giants were sloppy in their Week 1 loss to Detroit when the Lions wiped the floor with them. In Week 2 against Arizona, the Giants were sloppy again. Last week, they moved the ball easily but again were sloppy on several possessions, but their sloppiness was masked by a victory against a bad football team. The Giants are a bad football team that may be on the verge of or already have quit on their coach while the Redskins are coming on and have responded to their new coach. On long rest, the Giants have been sloppy in every game and now they’ll play on short rest. The New York Giants have seldom appeared prepared over the past 2½ seasons. They have been blown out on several occasions and it would surprise us not if they got blown out again here.
You have the option of spotting -3 -117 or thereabouts and you obviously can choose to go that route. 3 is a key number but if we anticipated that ½-point making the difference we would be laying off this game. We’re betting this one -3½ + money because we like the ‘Skins to win big.
Pass NCAAF
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON +114 over Tampa Bay
Jeremy Hellickson should not be favored in Boston. Hellickson got off to a late start this year because of injuries and he’s been getting progressively worse. There are more red flags in his profile than just about any starting pitcher in the game. In his last start at home against the South Side, Hellickson lasted 4.1 innings, walked two batters, surrendered four runs on seven hits and whiffed one hitter. Over his last five starts he has a BB/K split of 12/19 in 23 innings but those 19 K’s does not come with support, as his swing and miss rate was just 8%. Hellickson also has a weak groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 35%/23%/42%, not to mention a 1.37 WHIP. Hellcikson’s WHIP over his last five starts is a brutal 1.84. Frankly, we have never liked this guy. He has outperformed his skills ever since he came up as a highly touted prospect back in 2010. His xERA every year is well over 4 and while he occasionally throws in a gem, they are few and far between. Hellickson is a big risk as road chalk and one we want no part of.
Meanwhile, Allen Webster could be a very sneaky, strong play here. Webster has not shown much development so far this season. His stats with Boston have been horrible (5.54 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) and that’s why most people will steer clear of him. Before you write him off also, do note that he has some of the best raw stuff of any young pitcher in the game. He has a strong overall 12% swing and miss rate (25% swing and miss rate with changeup, 17% swing and miss rate with slider) and has shown mid-90s velocity. He also has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground. All of Webster’s problems have come against lefties, as he has a horrible 13/18 K/BB in 23 innings against them. Furthermore, Webster is coming on. The Red Sox have won Webster’s last three starts against Toronto, Kansas City and Baltimore in which he allowed three runs or less in all three. It remains to be seen if Webster will eventually become a dominant late-inning reliever or will find footing as a starter, but he remains a guy worth keeping on your radar and certainly worth a look here as a pooch in his own yard.
TJ Masterline
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Over 7.5
Yankee Stadium will be buzzing tonight for the Captain's Home farewell. I also believe this will lead to an inspired game, from both sides. Even though the wind is blowing in at 8 mph, and two decent starters, I feel this game will be a 5-4 type of affair. I also am playing, and recommend playing both Team Totals, which at press time are currently both at 3.5. I believe this is easy money!
Jack Jones
Oklahoma State -14
The No. 24 Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-1) kick off their Big 12 season against the Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) on Thursday, September 25th. The Cowboys have had the Red Raiders’ number with five straight wins in this series, including a 52-34 road victory last season.
Both teams had a bye last week to get ready for this contest. The Cowboys are coming off a 43-13 home victory over UTSA last time out, while the Red Raiders will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 28-49 home loss to Arkansas.
To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. The Cowboys have simply dominated this series, going a perfect 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The last four haven’t even been close as Oklahoma State has won by 18, 38, 60 and 17 points, respectively. They won by a final of 52-34 on the road in 2013, 59-21 at home in 2012, 66-6 on the road in 2011, and 34-17 on the road in 2010.
It’s clear to see that everyone, including myself, wasn’t giving the Cowboys enough credit heading into the 2014 season due to all the starters they lost from last year. The proved they could play with anyone in the country when they only lost 31-37 to defending national champion Florida State in their opener. Their 43-13 win over a very good UTSA team last time out was almost equally impressive.
It was announced that starting quarterback J.W. Walsh would be out for the season for Oklahoma State after he suffered a broken foot against Missouri State on September 6th. Few teams in the country can play as well or better with their backup quarterback, and the Cowboys have proven through the years that they are one of them.
Daxx Garman got the start against UTSA and thrived, leading the Cowboys to 477 yards of total offense, while the defense only gave up 206 total yards and 11 first downs in the win. Garman threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Desmond Roland rushed for 95 yards and two scores. Garman even surveyed the field and found his best option as a whopping nine different receivers caught passes from him.
Texas Tech has a pretty solid offense, but even it hasn’t been that good this season. The real problem for the Red Raiders is their defense, which can’t stop anyone. That’s why they survived scares in their first two games with a 42-35 home win over Central Arkansas as a 34-point favorite, and a 30-26 road win at UTEP as a 21-point favorite. They stood no chance against Arkansas, losing by a final of 28-49 as they gave up a whopping 439 yards on the ground. Texas Tech is now allowing 36.7 points and 432.7 yards per game this season.
Oklahoma State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75%. The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS after allowing 42 or more points past game over the past three seasons. The Cowboys are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. Texas Tech is 1-8 ATS in its last eight games overall. Oklahoma State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games.
Dave Price
Pittsburgh Pirates -127
The Pirates are showing value at this price with Volquez on the hill. He's allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts. The Pirates are 11-5 in these starts and 8-1 in his last nine starts versus a team with a losing record. Atlanta won yesterday, but it is 2-10 in its last 12 and 0-6 in its last six following a win. Hale hasn't started since June, and I just don't see him being as effective as the dialed in Volquez. Hale's 1.439 WHIP should be a concern for the Braves since Pittsburgh is 10-1 in its last 11 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.300.
Johnny Wynn
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Texas Tech +14
Both teams are not as talented as they have been in the past. Speaking to some sharp players they say take Texas Tech plus the points small tonight. They have a good enough offense to keep it close.
Doug Upstone
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -142
Play On NL home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Washington in September, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season. It is a proven fact favorites this large with this kind of pitcher win this month. How true is it, how does 43-5, 89.6 percent sound to you!