Hollywood Sports
UCLA at Arizona St.
Play: Arizona St.
The Bruins (3-0) looks to build off their 20-17 win at Texas back on September 13th. UCLA has then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after holding their last opponent to 20 points or less. The Bruins have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a bye week. Arizona State (3-0) comes off a 38-24 win at Colorado two Saturdays ago -- and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a bye week. Additionally, the home team has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the Sun Devils as a home underdog in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Texas Tech at Oklahoma St
Play: Texas Tech
Edges - Red Raiders: 4-0 ATS first of back-to-back road games; and 3-0 SUATS in conference openers; and 4-1 ATS weekday games. Cowboys: 1-4 ATS off SU non-conference win 28 or more points. With Tech 6-1 SU with rest and OSU 1-5-1 ATS with rest in Big 12 competition when off a double-digit win with Gundy, look for the visiting team to improve to 17-6 ATS in this series tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Under 69: Just do not see this game hitting the 70s at all. The Cowboy offense is good, but will be weaker without JT walsh behind center. That means this team will team should turn to a bit more conservative game plan and run , run, run vs a Texas Tech team that is 125th in the nation vs the run. That will help chew clock. Also I just do expect the Cowboys to take too many chances on offense, knowing that they have a solid defense behind them that has been solid this year, allowing just 24.3 ppg. The Cowboys have averaged 38 ppg on offense, while the Red Raiders have allowed 36.7 ppg, but they did just fire their DC and that may be what they need to turn the defense around. I think they will play hard defensively in this game. The offense for the Red Raiders has been rather average and I don't expect them to put up a ton vs a solid Cowboy defense. 38-24 sounds about right here.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Mountaineers of Appalachian State plus the points.
Already Georgia Southern's 5th game of the season, and while they are off to a 2-2 start and have covered ALL 4, including games against N.C. State and Georgia Tech, I worry that the line is a little too high against their old Southern Conference rivals the Mountaineers of Appalachian State.
Appy State has won the last three series of meetings against the Eagles, with last year's score coming by a 38-14 margin. The Mounties do return 16 players from last year's edition, and while they did lose to Southern Miss 21-20 last weekend, they also had a field goal and a point after blocked in that game in addition to missing a pair of field goals for a bit of a deceptive final score.
The price is a little too rich to back Georgia Southern with utmost confidence, so while the "triple revenge" angle may work, I do not think the win is going to come by more than two touchdowns.
Take the points.
3♦ APPALACHIAN STATE
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland Athletics, and don't worry about listing pitchers in this one.
The Rangers have now won 10 of 11, and it's easy to see this team is playing with a lot of momentum to close this disturbing season on a positive note.
This is always a big series between these teams, due to their division rivalry, and it's even more motivational for the Rangers, who have been horrendous the entire campaign.
It's a shame to see how this team has struggled the entire campaign, so in getting to end the season on a winning run, and doing so against the team that is led the division for most of the season, this should be a good week for the Rangers.
2♦ TEXAS
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the big impost against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Lots of money coming in on Texas Tech but the line isn't moving... it's actually holding steady at -14 despite the lump of cash being dumped on the road team.
Many bettors are hoping for a backdoor cover from the Raiders, but in order for them to do that they have to keep this game within striking distance... which I'm not so sure they can do.
Before even looking at personnel, consider these facts:
OSU is 12-2 in their last 14 Big 12 games at home. They've scored at least 24 points in 55 straight games... the longest streak in the country at that number. They've won five straight against the Red Raiders dating back to 2008 and haven't lost to Tech in Stillwater since 2001.
Can you say one-sided?
Tech allowed a whopping 438 rushing yards to Arkansas in their last game and must figure out a way to stop OSU's rushing attack which has been as good as advertised. They've allowed 37 ppg so far this season, which is part of the reason DC Matt Wallerstedt resigned right after the Arkansas debacle (not counting the fact he was also caught with an "improper" substance in his body on campus).
OSU needs this win as they continue through the softer part of their conference schedule. Take the Cowboys as your free play of the day.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Chris Jordan
My free play tonight is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Mariners, who have lost five straight after the Jays smashed Seattle-ace Felix Hernandez two nights back and picked up another win last night. The M's, across the country for this series, had to have had their egos deflated in seeing King Felix get blasted, because they looked lifeless last night.
Seattle starters have failed to complete five innings in four of its past five games, having gotten hammered for 28 earned runs in 22.2 innings in that span for an ugly ERA of 11.11.
None of that bodes well against one of the most powerful teams in the league, especially when it's playing at home. Toronto has the fourth-best home batting average in the bigs, and second-best in the American League with a .268 clip.
Tonight the momentum carries over as the Jays roll.
1♦ TORONTO
Brad Wilton
Hard to build a case for Kliff Kingsbury's sinking ship, as the Red Raiders hit Stillwater reeling from the dismissal of DC Mark Wallerstedt who stepped down from his postion. With Texas Tech allowing over 36 points per game, not sure anyone can help stop the Cowboys from hitting their average of 38 points per game through their first three contests.
The Cowboys are 1-1 against the spread this season as the home favorite, and are 16-7 overall when listed as the home chalk since the 2010 season. The Pokes have also prevailed in this series 5 straight times both straight up and against the spread in this "rivalry" and have covered the last 4 meetings at Boone Pickens Stadium versus the Red Raiders.
Daxx Garman filled in just fine for injured QB J.W. Walsh, as State romped a pretty solid UTSA team 43-13 last week at home, so not too concerned with Garman under the lights in this meeting.
Numbers say to lay it here, so lay it with the Cowboys.
2♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Harry Bondi
NY GIANTS (+3) over Washington
Giants always play the Redskins tough in Washington and we expect that to be the case again tonight. New York has only lost by more than 1 point once in their last eight visits to our nations capital. Big Blue swept the Skins 24-17 and 20-6 last year and despite how well Washington has played with Kirk Cousins at the controls, we smell an upset here.
Anthony Michael
New York Giants +3.5
The Giants have traditionally been a very strong road team in the NFL especially as a dog and especially in the division. They are starting to figure out their offense after really struggling in their first 2 games. The Redskins are trying to get by with RGIII on the sidelines and they are doing OK on offense but their defense was scorched by the Eagles last week. Look for a lower scoring close NFC East clash here.
Bob Balfe
Oklahoma State -14 & Over 68.5
Simple put this Texas Tech Defense stinks. The run defense is absolutely brutal and you would think that the linebackers and defensive line would be young starters, but that is not the case. This unit consist of juniors and seniors and they still can’t get the job done. What they tells you is Texas Tech just does not have the talent and can’t recruit like this Oklahoma State team. Oklahoma State has too much speed for this defensive unit. The Cowboys who can’t really run the ball still should have no problem running when they want, but there really is no need to do so if they can throw the ball in the air. Texas Tech is in trouble. Oklahoma State does have young players in the secondary and this defense in total does not have the most of experience. This Texas Tech Offensive line is experienced and can sling the ball around. This team should be able to put up their fair share of points and if all goes well for us this unit will be able to put up points when Oklahoma State puts in their backups which are not that experienced. I think this game will be out of reach pretty quick, but Oklahoma State can’t slow a game down and will continue to score. The X factor is this game is a guy name Tyreek Hill who might be the fastest player in college football. This guy is a transfer from a community college and can score every time he touches the ball at running back. Hill also returns the punts and kickoffs. This should be a very entertaining game. Take Oklahoma State and take the Over. (No parlays)
Orioles +110
The Yankees have been eliminated from postseason play and when you have a team of this quality the last thing these players want to do after years of making the postseason is play in some mop up games. This Orioles team is on their way to get that shot at a world series and have been playing excellent. I don’t expect them to slip up now. These teams are in two different state of minds. Take the Orioles.
Mike O'Connor
WASHINGTON (-3) 27 NY Giants 19
With both teams at 1-2 this is a big divisional game, especially for the Redskins who lost last week in a divisional game against the Eagles. Kirk Cousins made his first start at QB for Washington this season after the Robert Griffin injury and had a very good game, completing 30 of 48 for 427 yards and 8.9 yps and had the Redskins in the game late against a good Eagles team. Washington actually outgained Philly 512 yards at 6.8 yppl to 381 yards at 5.8 yppl and really shut down the Eagles run game, holding them to just 56 yards at 2.3 ypr. So far this season the Redskins rush defense has been outstanding, allowing just 66 yards rushing at 3.0 ypr to teams that gain 105 yards at 4.0 ypr on average. They’ll have an advantage against an average Giants rush attack that had a good day against Houston last week, but were below average the first two weeks.
Washington should be able to move the ball well against a Giants defense that is below average, allowing 366 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that gain just 352 yards at 5.7 yppl, suffering in both rush and pass defense. I believe that Kirk Cousins is an upgrade at QB in the Gruden system and will be able to take advantage of the Giants deficiencies with a talented group of skill position players around him. The Giants are probably feeling pretty good about themselves after beating the Texans last week while the Redskins are focused on rebounding after a disappointing loss in Philly and realize the importance of this game. With the short week and having to travel, the Giants will face a familiar foe, but an unfamiliar offensive scheme that they have not prepared for before, as Gruden has been in Cincinnati the past three years. With the short week and travel offering limited prep time for the Giants coaching staff and facing a talented offensive group, this could be an advantage for the Redskins. Washington qualifies in 661-489-40, 40-16 and 33-13 statistical match-up indicators but my ratings favor them here by only about 2 points. Last week the Redskins sustained some injuries along the offensive and defensive lines and lost cornerback DeAngelo Hall who is now out for the season and that could be an issue tonight. I’ll pass but lean to the Redskins minus the short number.
Dr Bob
OKLAHOMA STATE (-14½) 44 Texas Tech 30
Texas Tech has not instilled a faith in their backers with narrow wins over bad teams Central Arkansas (won 42-35 as a 34 point home favorite) and UTEP (won 30-26 as a 20 ½ point road favorite) and their 28-49 home loss to Arkansas confirmed that the Red Raiders are not as good as they were expected to be. However, Texas Tech is still a better than average team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.6 yards per play better than average on offense (7.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average attack) and average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Oklahoma State isn’t any better from a yards per play perspective, as the Cowboys have been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively and also average defensively but they should run significantly more plays and my total yardage projection is 561 yards to 468 yards in favor of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are also much, much better in special teams and overall I favor them by 17 points in this game. However, Texas Tech applies to a 43-9-1 ATS early season indicator that is based on their 0-3 ATS record, so they’re likely to be better than they’ve been so far. Oklahoma State, however, is 41-13 ATS under coach Mike Gundy when favored from 3 ½ to 24 points, so he usually beats up on the teams that he’s supposed to beat. I’d steer clear of the side – although I do favor the Over.
UCLA (-3) 35 ARIZONA STATE 30
My math model favors UCLA by 3 ½ points before making adjustments for Arizona State’s star quarterback Taylor Kelly being out. Kelly was averaging a robust 8.6 yards per pass play and 11.7 yards per run on 16 runs. Kelly’s backup Mike Bercovici has does nothing to show that he is capable of being even average as a passer, as his resume consists of 14 completions in 24 attempts for an average of just 4.7 yards per attempt with a couple of sacks. I’m guessing Bercovici will be better with 2 weeks of working with the first team offense in practice and I’ll assume his yards per completion approaches the team average rather than the pathetic 8.0 yards he’s averaged on his 14 career completions. If the coaching staff doesn’t let him throw the ball down the field in this game then UCLA won’t be afraid to bring their safeties up to help defend against the Sun Devils’ good rushing attack that is averaging 7 yards a run even without Kelly’s 11.7 yprp. UCLA’s run defense is already good (4.2 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average defense) and it will be better if they don’t have to worry about Bercovici throwing over the top of the defense. After making reasonable assumptions that Bercovici will be much better as a starter than he has been in a backup role I project 430 yards at a decent 5.9 yards per play for ASU in this game.
UCLA, however, is projected to gain 491 yards at 6.1 yppl with Brett Hundley back under center after getting hurt early in the Texas game two weeks ago. Oddly, UCLA’s compensated offense against Texas was actually their best of the season, so Hundley coming back is actually not a huge boost. UCLA’s offense is 0.5 yards per play better than average for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they should move the ball well against a mediocre ASU defense whose starting unit has allowed 5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive unit. Overall, the math favors UCLA by 5½ points, which is where this line started, and I’ll lean with the Bruins now that the line has come down.
Tony George
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Kansas City Royals -140
I will pass tonight for a Premium Play BUT WILL TAKE KANSAS CITY -140 with Jamie Shields on the Hill tonight to bounce back and get the Royals back on track...CRUCIAL GAME for KC - perhaps the most important of the season with all that is at Stake and the White Sox are beatable even with a good pitcher on the hill.
OC Dooley
Padres +125
Earlier this afternoon Milwaukee who was a first-place team for a grand total of 150 days lost at Cincinnati and amazingly was eliminated from the playoffs. With that defeat the sting of last night’s eight-run margin of defeat by the Giants has been immediately washed way as San Francisco now officially in the postseason. As has been the case with most teams the game “after” clinching a playoff spot suffer an emotional letdown and lose on the scoreboard and I am looking for that pattern to continue in this particular late evening contest. The key this pick actually surrounds San Diego starting pitcher Andrew Cashner who was the main piece in a trade several years ago that sent young slugger Anthony Rizzo packing from the Padres to the Cubs. While Rizzo has already surpassed the 30-homer plateau Cashner has spent of 2014 on the disabled list. But when healthy enough to toe the rubber Cashner whose fastball has previously been clocked at 100-miles-per-hour has been outstanding especially against the Dodgers and Giants where his team has WON all three games. The following statistic may come as a shock to most but dating back to August 19 of a year ago the overall ERA of Cashner (1.82) is the BEST in all of baseball