DUNKEL INDEX
South Florida at Pittsburgh
The Panthers look to bounce back from their 15-12 loss to Notre Dame and build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU defeat. Pittsburgh is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2).
Game 101-102: South Florida at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 94.600; Pittsburgh 94.827
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: South Florida by 2 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under
Game 103-104: Houston at UTEP (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 91.573; UTEP 73.691
Dunkel Line: Houston by 18; 67
Vegas Line: Houston by 15 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-15 1/2); Over
Jim Feist
Houston at UTEP
Pick: Over
Houston (4-0 SU/2-1 ATS) is a powerhouse offensive team under fourth-year head coach Kevin Sumlin, averaging 43 points and tops in the nation with 418 yards passing per game behind senior QB Case Keenum (12 TDs, 2 INTs). Keenum threw for 310 yards, Tyron Carrier caught 10 passes for 138 yards and Houston beat UCLA 38-34. Keenum completed 30 of 40 passes without an interception. The offense is loaded behind senior running back Bryce Beall and senior wide receiver Patrick Edwards. The defense, though, is another story. The Cougars are 17-6 over the total in their last 23 games overall. UTEP (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) has a good offensive head coach in Mike Price but the defense is terrible. They had a 52-24 loss to South Florida as the defense was bludgeoned for 575 yards (373 rushing). Even Stony Brook had 410 yards (231 rushing) in a 31-24 UTEP win. The Over is 5-1 in Miners last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play Houston/UTEP Over the total.
Carolina Sports
South Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Under 52
South Florida is coming off a blowout win at home vs a horrible UTEP. Their offensive numbers are not as good as they seem as they are avg 6.6-yppl vs teams that combine to allow 6.5-yppl. The one good defensive team they played was Notre Dame and ND held them to 256 yards and 3.5-yppl. Pitt defense has been solid allowing 5.2-yppl this year. Pitt offense has been terrible learning new schemes. Pitt is coming off an emotional loss at home and may have trouble responding. South Florida is feeling good about themselves at 4-0. Situations favor both teams but we will ride the hotter team even though they have really not played anyone besides Notre Dame. The under looks like the better play. South Florida 24-20.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
South Florida -2.5 over PITTSBURGH: The Panthers are 2-7 ATS after a game with Notre Dame and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 weekday home games, while the Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. Pitt has taken the last 3 in the series, but I see them having problems making it 4 in a row tonight. The Panthers haven't been that bad on offense, averaging 370 ypg and 27.2 ppg, but last week they played without one of the best OG's in the Big East in Chris Jacobson (Lost for season) and they missed him allowing 6 sacks and rushing for under 3 ypc on the day vs the Irish. Pitt is now 111th in QB sacks allowed per game, while the Bulls check in at 16th in sacks gained per game. Jacobson will definitely be missed in this one and his replacement is a redshirt sophomore. The Panthers defense was to be the best in the Big East this year, but they have really struggled thus far as they are just 97th in yards allowed (411.8 ypg) and 52nd in points allowed (22.8 ppg). This struggling defense must now take on a Bulls team that is 9th in total offense (531 ypg) and 10th in points scored (45.5 ppg). BJ Daniels has been inconsistent for much of his career, but he has been special this year, hitting 66% of his passes for 1071 yards, with an 8.64 ypa average and he has 8 TD's to just 1 INT. He should have a good game tonight vs Pitt's 115th ranked passing defense. The Bulls defense has been vulnerable to the pass, but they are still 27th in total defense (313 ypg) and 15th vs the Run ( 82.5 ypg) and that should help neutralize Pitt's biggest offensive weapon in RB Ray Graham. The Bulls get the edges on both sides of the ball in this one and despite the game being played in Pitt they should still come through with a win of at least 7.
2 UNIT PLAY
Houston -16 over UTEP: Last year with Cougars rolled this UTEP team to the tune of 54-24. The Cougars rolled up 658 yards, including 310 on the ground and they were also 9 of 11 on 3rd downs. This powerful Houston offense that is 3rd in total offense and 1st in passing has the luxury of facing a UTEP defense that is 94th in total defense and 65th vs the pass. Houston may also run the ball more today as they will be taking on a UTEP defense that is 96th vs the run and the Cougars did pile up 310 yards on the ground vs them last year. The Miners offense is bad as they are just 92 in total offense and 106th in rushing. They are 45th in passing, but Houston is 57th in the nation vs the pass (209 ypg) so that's pretty much even. I will not put much stock in the close come-from behind with that the Cougars had vs La. Tech as the Bulldogs are a formidable team that has two close road losses vs Southern Miss and Mississippi State so far. Houston is playing for an undefeated season this year and they will not let a bad UTEP team stay in this one for long as they win by 21+.
1 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ South Florida Over 51.5: The Over is 4-1 in the Bulls last 5 off a win of 20 or more, while the Over is 5-1 in Pitt's last 6 following a game in which they scored 20 less. The Bulls have outscored opponents by a 65-7 count in the first quarter this year and if they jump out to a solid lead then look for Pitt to take aim at this 75th ranked South Florida pass defense. BJ Daniels has been awesome for the Bulls and he should fine some friendly skies vs a Pitt Pass defense that is ranked 115th in the nation. Im normally an Under player but I see points aplenty in this one.
JACK HOWARD
10 DIMES PITT +2.5
This seems to be the best South Florida team in the past couple of years, but how good are the Bulls? Everyone remembers their victory over Notre Dame in week one where they beat the Irish 23-20. What I remember in that game is South Florida gave up 508 yards of offense compared to their 254. I also remember Notre Dame committing five turnovers (three in inside the redzone!). What am I getting at? 1) Notre Dame could be good minus the turnovers 2) South Florida's pass defense is awful. 3) Aside from week one, South Florida played no one! USF's opponent, Pitt, blew a huge lead to Iowa in week three and couldn't hold on against the Irish last week. Granted the Panthers did lose to ND, but their defense improved drastically as they held Notre Dame to 15 points. Last week, it was apparent that Pitt's game plan was to stop Michael Floyd, as the Panthers held Floyd to four catches with 27 yards and 0 touchdowns. This week, they are going to be keying on USF quarterback B.J. Daniels. If the Panthers can keep Daniels in the pocket and prevent large gains on broken plays, Pitt has a great chance. Look for the Panthers to start the Big East 1-0 as they upset the Bulls in a low scoring affair. Prediction: 20-16 Pitt
David Banks
South Florida / Pittsburgh Over
The Big East schedule is set to begin for both the South Florida Bulls and Pittsburgh Panthers when the conference rivals meet up under the Thursday night lights; kick-off from Heinz Field is scheduled for 8:00 ET live on ESPN and ESPN3.com.
Not much was thought of the Bulls at the outset of the season with oddsmakers installing them lofty 10.5-point South Bend underdogs in their match-up with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Though the game was delayed due to obscene weather on two occasions, head coach Skip Holtz’s kids pulled out the 23-20 outright victory. Since then, the Bulls have outscored their opponents 159-48 en route to a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS tally. QB B.J. Daniels sports an exceptional 8:1 TD/INT ratio, and his ability to not force things and put his defense in bad spots with turnovers has led to the Bulls solid start. This squad has been dogged on the road each of the L/4 times dating back to last season; they’re 4-0 SU & ATS in those contests.
Pittsburgh got off to a roaring start to the Todd Graham era, but one has to question the quality of the opposition as Buffalo and Maine would hardly strike fear into any of the big time FBS teams in the country. Since winning their first two games, the Panthers have suffered sickening 4th quarter collapses against both Iowa and Notre Dame. Because of it, PITT opens Big East play up a .500 team at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS. The offense has had an incredibly tough time getting used to the new schemes installed by the new coaching staff, while the defense has proven to be a sieve through the air allowing the opposition to throw on them to the tune of 306.3 passing yards per game at 6.7 yards per pass; not good when matched up against USF’s passing attack that’s averaged 294.8 yards per game (#23).
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU & ATS in these teams meetings since South Florida became a member of the Big East. They won 17-10 as three-point road chalk in a game that was tied at 10 heading into the final 15 minutes of play last season. USF has covered each of its L/5 road tussles, but has come up empty in the Thursday night spotlight failing to cover each of the L/6 times. PITT is 10-1 ATS its L/11 following a SU loss, but stands just 1-6 SU & 3-3-1 ATS the seven times it’s been dogged the L/3 seasons.
Rocketman
South Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +3
South Florida is 1-7 SU and 1-6 ATS since 1992 when playing on Thursday. Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS last 3 years in Week 5 through 9. Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings in this series. South Florida is 2-8 ATS last 10 games when playing on Weekdays. South Florida is 1-6 ATS last 7 games after scoring 40 or more points in previous game. Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS last 11 games after a SU loss. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS last 16 games against conference opponents. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
Black Widow
1* on Houston -16.5
The Houston Cougars are the real deal this season. They are off to a 4-0 start, and their offense is hitting on all cylinders. Houston has the 3rd ranked unit in total offense (585.1 yards/game), they are scoring 44.2 points/game, and they are averaging 446.3 passing yards/game. That bodes well for them considering they'll be up against a UTEP team that is 90th in total defense (408.3 yards/game). The Miners lost to South Florida 24-52 last week, and their only wins have come against New Mexico State 16-10 and Stony Brook 31-24 (overtime). They were even outgained by Stony Brook in that win. Houston beat UTEP 54-24 last year and we full expect a similar beat down tonight. UTEP only has two offensive starters back from last year, and they are struggling on this side of the ball in 2011 (22.0 points/game). The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take Houston and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on UTEP Miners +17
The value lies with UTEP at home as it looks to avenge last year's 30-point loss at Houston. The last time the Cougars visited El Paso, they left with their tail between their legs. In 2009, as a 14-point home dog, the Miners crushed the Cougars by 17 points. UTEP has either won or lost by 17 points or less in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. Historically speaking, this isn't a good spot for Houston. Consider that the Cougs are 0-8 ATS in road games since 1992 following a game in which they covered the spread as a double-digit favorite. Houston has actually lost by an average score of 34 to 25.5 in this situation. In addition, the Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite. The home team has covered the number in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and that's who we'll take tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on UTEP +17
Under coach Sumlin, Houston is 0-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. The Cougars are losing by an average of 7.4 points in this situation. Considering UTEP has played Houston to within 17 points in 5 of the last 6 meetings, I'd say the Cougars are being overvalued here tonight. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Panthers +3
The South Florida Bulls are off to a 4-0 start this season and they're starting to get a lot of love from odds makers and the betting public. South Florida has only beaten one good team, and that was a 23-20 victory over Notre Dame in their opener. Their next three opponents were Ball State, Florida A&M & UTEP.
In that win over the Irish, the Bulls were outgained 254-508 as Notre Dame doubled their yardage output. The Irish also committed five turnovers, while South Florida didn't cough it up once. To say they were "lucky" to win that game would be the understatement of the century.
Pittsburgh comes in off back-to-back painful losses to elite programs. They fell 27-31 at Iowa and 12-15 to Notre Dame. There's no question that the Panthers are going to very hungry to get back in the win column tonight after two tough losses like that. Plus, head coach Todd Graham is a perfect 7-0 ATS all-time as a home underdog of 7 points or less.
The Panthers have won all three meetings with South Florida over the last three seasons. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Bulls overall. Pitt is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. South Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday game. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games. I'm not drinking the South Florida kool-aid here folks, instead I'll side with the home underdog Panthers showing great value. Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.
EZWINNERS
South Florida Bulls -2.5
The Pittsburgh offense is still trying to learn a new system this year and they really only have two offensive weapons in quarterback Tino Sunseri and running back Ray Graham. Sunseri has had a decent completion percentage, but he can be turnover prone and has already thrown four interceptions this season. The key for the Bulls defense will be to limit the damage that Graham, who has already rushed for over 500 yards this season, does in this game and I expect them to do just that. On the other side of the ball the South Florida offense has been much more balanced and quarterback BJ Daniels is playing very well. The Bulls running game has also been solid as running backs Scott and Murry lead the rushing attack. The Panthers have won three straight meetings between these teams but I expect that to change tonight. USF is one of the favorites to win the Big East and I expect them to pick up this road win against a Pittsburgh team that has been finding ways to lose in the fourth quarter of games so far this season. Lay the points.