Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 30,2010

The Wiseguys

Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Play: Oklahoma State Cowboys -3

ESPN's Thursday night prime-time college football contest figures to be a closely contested contest with more than its share of points when Jerrod Johnson and the Texas AM Aggies travel north to square off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The books are having a hard time getting a grasp on what to think of the two teams. Both are undefeated with over-the-top offensive potential. However, underlying gameday peripherals favor the home favorite on Thursday night. Playing against road underdogs (Aggies) of 3 to 9.5 points that average more than 34 points per game and are undefeated in September against a team (Cowboys) defense that allows between 3-and-4 touchdowns per game (21-29 points) in conference play has cashed at an near perfect rate - 87% (26-4) over the last five college campaigns.

Each team is at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after three games, all at home. Records and stats can be deceiving, however, as the Cowboys are more balanced, deeper on the bench and have played a much tougher schedule. The Wise Guys power poll show that the Cowboys have played a much tougher schedule than the Aggies, and it figures to show in the fourth quarter of Thursday night's game.

Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS when their defense forces 3 turnovers over the last three seasons and the high risk offense of the Aggies figure to press a combination of three fumbles and interceptions in their first road game. In this situation State wins by and nearly 25 points. A&M quarterback Jerrod Johnson threw four interceptions in last week's contest; one week after the Aggies lost four fumbles in the first half against Louisiana Tech. The Cowboys are also 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points under head coach Mike Gundy winning by an average of almost 20 points.

While two-plus-two doesn't always equal four on the gridiron the fact that the Aggies had to fight back from a 20-6 deficit last week to beat FIU, at home, speaks volumes to how difficult it will be to get a win in Stillwater.

The Cowboys faced their own adversity turning the ball over five times against Troy two games ago, but they held the lead for most of the second half. And last week’s win over Tulsa was 60 minutes of ESPN highlights in a downright blowout. Cowboys' soon to be NFL quarterback Brandon Weeden (sprained thumb) threw six TD passes against a defense that is arguably better than that of the Aggies.

The Thursday evening tilt will be entertaining if nothing else with two talented quarterbacks and skilled players on both sidelines. Johnson leads a talented Aggies offense and is an immensely talented player but he'll struggle with the road noise behind a suspect offensive line, even against an average Cowboys front seven.

Expect the current point-spread of 3 or 3.5, depending on the store, to steam in favor of the home team hours before kickoff with Sharp money pounding OSU.

BIG AL

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles

There are several reasons for the Orioles to look back fondly on the second half of the 2010 season, and to be looking forward to 2011. They have a new Manager in Buck Showalter, several talented rookies or second-year players, and more talent in the minors than the average franchise. Since Showalter took over at the beginning of August, the Orioles are 30-22 and they tied the season series against their hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox, at nine games apiece. Tonight, Baltimore's righthanded ace of the second half, Jeremy Guthrie will take the mound (Brian Matusz has earned the status of lefthanded ace). After going 3-10 with a 4.77 ERA prior to the All-Star break, Guthrie is now 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA since, and he's 3-1 in his last five starts for this team while throwing over 200 innings for the second straight season. In what could be his final start in a Tiger uniform, righthanded veteran Jeremy Bonderman will take the mound tonight for his 29th start and Bonderman will be a free agent after the season and it's quite possible that he will part ways with the only MLB team he's ever played for. It likely could be a rocky final start for Bonderman as he is 2-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career outings against the O's covering just 27 innings. Take Baltimore.

Steve Merril

Pirates @ Marlins
PICK: Over 8.5

Florida returns home for their final series in Miami this season when they host the Pirates on Thursday night. The Marlins will send Chris Volstad to the mound. He's 11-9 with a 4.63 ERA in 29 starts for the Marlins. The righty is coming in slightly hot having gone 15.7 innings without giving up a run. However, Volstad has lost both of his career starts to the Pirates including the one this season. In that game, he gave up five runs and five hits in five innings of work. Last year, Volstad gave up four runs and three hits in three innings pitched to the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen (2-5), Chris Snyder (2-4), Neil Walker (1-2), Pedro Alvarez (1-2), and Delwyn Young (1-1) have good numbers against the Marlins starter. Before yesterday's game, the Pirates had scored four runs or more in five straight games and in six of their last seven games overall. Six of Pittsburgh’s last eight games have gone Over the total. The Marlins bullpen is 12-11 with a 4.44 ERA at home where they've blown 14 saves as well.

Zach Duke has allowed at least three runs or more in all five of his September starts. The lefty is 3-7 with a 6.87 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He has yet to defeat the Marlins in six career starts. Duke gave up five runs and nine hits in 5.7 innings of work back in August to the Marlins. Dan Uggla (6-12), Chad Tracy (3-11), Hector Luna (3-6), Emilio Bonifacio (3-3), Gaby Sanchez (2-3), and Logan Morrison (1-3) all hit Duke well. The Marlins are 32-15 against lefties this season while hitting .268 against them. Pittsburgh's bullpen is 7-17 on the road with an ERA over five. We expect a high-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Over tonight between the Pirates and Marlins.

Matt Fargo

Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Houston Astros

Now that the Reds have clinched the National League Central, they will no longer be playing full lineups for the remaining four days of the regular season. The regulars got a night off last night and it showed as Cincinnati was shutout and while most of those players should be back in the lineup tonight, I don’t expect all of them to be in the entire game. Even with regular in, the Reds have struggled offensively, scoring three runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games.

Houston snapped a three-game skid last night, its second three-game losing streak over the last 10 days and both of those have been aberrations of late. The Astros have posted one of the best records in baseball in the second half, despite losing six of their last eight games on this current roadtrip. The starting pitching has hit a small bump during this run but the last two games once again saw excellent performances. Houston starters have posted a 3.27 ERA since the All-Star break, third best in baseball.

Brett Myers is getting a solid price as he looks to finish the season on a high.

He is coming off one of his worst outings in a long time but he went six innings and according to the MLB website, he is one of only five different pitchers since 1920 to pitch at least six innings in 32 consecutive appearances in a season. That is pretty remarkable. Also according to the website, he has already tied career high in wins, set a career high with 218 innings pitched and has a career-best ERA of 2.89. 24 of his 32 start have been quality outings and Houston has won six of his last seven starts.

The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who has been pitching very well also but I don’t expect the team to let him go too long tonight with the playoffs around the corner. He has already broken his career high for wins so there is not a whole lot of incentive to keep him in this game for very long as they just want to keep him in rhythm before the postseason. He has been outstanding in his recent starts against the Astros and that actually helps us with the price offered tonight.

The Astros are 10-1 in Myers' last 11 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while going 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a winning record. The Reds meanwhile are 2-8 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game and 1-4 in Arroyo’s last five home starts against teams with a losing record. 3* Houston Astros

Scott Spreitzer

Blue Jays @ Twins
PICK: Under 8

The Minnesota Twins, playing for home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, finally broke their losing streak with a win last night over Kansas City. But it wasn't because of their bats. Instead, it was due to a strong pitching effort from Scott Baker and the bullpen. The Twins are obviously missing Justin Morneau, and could be without the services of J.J. Hardy, Joe Mauer (again), and Jim Thome tonight. This likely means that Minnesota will have to get the job done with solid pitching once again. Francisco Liriano is just the man for the job. The Minnesota southpaw has put up tremendous numbers at Target Field this season, including a 2.83 ERA & 1.15 WHIP. Liriano hasn't faced the Blue Jays often, but he has held them to just one earned run and nine hits in eight innings of work. And this is a Blue Jay lineup that plates just 3.4 rpg against lefties, winning just 12 of 34 games this season. Shawn Hill will make his fourth start of September for the Jays. He owns a solid 2.81 ERA through his first three. Even if the players mentioned above do suit-up for the Twins, I expect them to have their hands full with Hill. The Twins are on a 14-5-1 run to the Under when Liriano throws on five days rest. And the Jays are on a 6-0 Under streak in games against lefthanded starters. Look for the battle between the Jays and Twins to stay Under the total on Thursday evening.

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Take: New York Mets

The Mets played very good baseball at home and go with a terrific young arm in Dillon Gee. The Brewers have never faced him and Gee held the Phillies to two runs on five hits over seven innings Saturday to pick up his second win of the year. The Mets are 3-1 in his four starts, with a 2.00 ERA. Chris Narveson goes for Milwaukee, a guy with a winning record overall but weak numbers, with a 5.14 ERA. He's 0-2 his last 2 starts. Play the NY Mets.

SPORTS WAGERS

Texas A&M +1.35 over OKLAHOMA ST.

With plenty of points expected in this game it really doesn’t pay to take the three points. If the Aggies are that close they’re very likely to win because they’re the better squad. The Cowboys come into this home game with a 3-0 record and an offense that is putting up sick numbers. In fact, that OSU offense has scored 20 TD’s in three games and they’re averaging close to 600 yards per game. That’s nice, it really is but there’s a price to pay when you schedule your first three games of the year against marshmallows. Oklahoma St has faced Washington St, Troy and Tulsa thus far and that trio ranks #116, #101 and #110 respectively, defensively in the land. So yeah, the Cowboys are throwing the ball around like they’re playing backyard football but this is a whole different animal. The Aggies are a quality team with quality players at the key positions, but they, too, have not played a quality opponent yet. The difference, however, is that these garbage teams are moving the ball against OSU and scoring points. Considering that the aforementioned trio averaged almost 400 yards-per-game against Ok St., one can only imagine what the Aggies will do to them. Also note that the Aggies defense is giving up about half of what the Cowboys are allowing, both in points allowed and yards-per-game. This is an intense rivalry and while OSU has beaten A&M twice in a row, they’ve never beaten them three straight and that’s not about to change now. Better team plus a take-back against a way overvalued Cowboy squad gets the call. Play: Texas A&M +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -127

Tampa Bay will be all business in Kansas City for its final series as it tries to hold off the Yankees for the AL East title. The Rays should especially be focused in Game 1 after losing to Baltimore yesterday. Royals ace Zach Greinke continues to get Cy Young respect on a bad team even though he hasn't resembled a Cy Young pitcher for the majority of this season. Greinke has been shelled by Detroit and Cleveland in his last 2 starts, giving up 13 runs in just 9 2/3 innings. The Royals are just 11-21 in his 32 starts this season, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts against the Rays. Greinke has received just 1.99 runs of support in those 5 games. Garza has won his last 2 starts against the Royals, and he enters off pitching a gem against Seattle. The Rays are an impressive 5-1 in Garza's last 6 starts as a favorite. Tampa Bay has won 5 of its last 6 in Kansas City, and I look for the Rays to continue their winning ways at Kauffman tonight.

Tom Freese

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Orioles are 6-2 their last 8 home games and they are 12-4 their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Birds are 14-4 in game one of a series and they are 11-5 their last 16 games vs. righty starters. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman has 11 walks and 4 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. the Tigers are 29-59 their last 88 games as road underdogs. Detroit is 6-15 vs. AL East teams and they are 16-36 their last 52 road games vs. righty starters. Detroit is 7-15 when the total is 7.0 to 8.5.

Jack Jones

Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Houston Astros

Brett Myers is quietly having one of the best seasons in the National League. Myers is 14-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 32 starts this season for Houston, and he hasn't missed a beat of late. Myers is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts as well. This is one team that he loves facing in the Cincinnati Reds, who is is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 8 career starts against. Bronson Arroyo has posted a 4.70 ERA in 19 career starts vs. Houston.

Cincinnati has nothing to play for. The Reds clinched the NL Central division two days ago, and they will be resting their regulars down the stretch to get them fresh for the postseason. Right on cue, Cincinnati laid and egg last night in a 2-0 loss to Houston. I am certainly going to fade this team the rest of the way as they have nothing to play for. Houston keeps on fighting, as the Astros are 44-35 against the money line in the second half of the season this season. Myers is 13-4 against the money line against division opponents this season. The Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 10-1 in Myers' last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with Houston Thursday.

Info Plays

3* on Chicago Cubs +160

Reasons the Cubs win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. This is a 36-16 ML System hitting 69.2% since 1997. This system is 6-3 this season. Bet the Cubs on the road.

Hollywood Sports

Colorado Rockies at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

While the Rockies enjoy a strong home field advantage at Coors Field, they are just 31-46 when they take their act on the road. They send out Jason Hammel who is 10-8 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season. But on the road, Hammel has a 5.35 ERA this year. He faces off against Chris Carpenter who is 15-9 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this year. In his last start of the year, expect Carpenter to improve his sterling 11-4 mark along with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home. He should fare well against a Rockies' team that hits only .232 away from Coors against right-handers and has lost six straight against right-handed starters. With Carpenter on the hill, St. Louis has won five of their last six games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are a dominant 48-29 at home this season. And Tony LaRussa places a big emphasis on winning the opening game of a series and his Cards have responded by winning 55 of their last 80 Game One situations. Its a very good chance that Carpenter will lead the way to continue this trend.

Larry Ness

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins

The Twins will host the AL's wild card team (either Rays or Yanks) in the ALDS but a four-game sweep of the Blue Jays to close the regular season could allow the Twins to earn the AL's best overall record, giving them home field advantage in the ALCS as well (assuming the team wins that first series). The point is, the Twins should care about these last four games. Minnesota owns the AL's best home record while the Blue Jays have struggled on the road after a fast early-season start. Toronto won 12 of its first 16 away games but has since gone 24-37 (.393) away from Rogers Centre. Ron Gardenhire named Francisco Liriano (14-9, 3.48 ERA) his starter for Game 1 of the ALDS but sends him the mound tonight, in hopes of getting a solid start from his left-hander. Liriano left a 10-1 loss at Detroit last Friday because of flu-like symptoms after he gave up two runs in just three innings. In his previous start, he allowed seven hits and five ERs over five innings of a 6-2 home loss to the A's. That was uncharacteristic, as Liriano's home ERA entering that game was 2.51 in 14 previous starts. Minnesota catches Toronto in a "flat spot" tonight, as the Jays took two of three from the Yankees to open the week, including an 8-4 win in retiring manager Cito Gaston’s final home game last night. Shawn Hill (1-2, 2.81 ERA) makes his fourth start since being called up from Triple-A. Hill is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and his 1-0 win over Felix Hernandez and the Mariners back on September 23 (his last start) was his first victory since April 10, 2009. The Jays are just 12-22 vs lefties this season (3.4 RPG), so I expect Liriano to have little trouble getting "back in form" tonight. Take the Twins.

Teddy Covers

Angels @ Rangers
PICK: Over 8.5

Even after clinching their first division title in more than a decade, the Texas Rangers lineup continues to produce runs in bunches. Texas has pounded out 42 runs in their last six games, an average of seven per contest. Even with a handful of regulars getting some rest, the Rangers still scored six runs last night. They’ll get to feast on Scott Kazmir tonight in his final start of an injury plagued season. Kazmir is on tap for career highs in losses and ERA. He’s 2-10 with a 7.00 ERA in his last 14 starts, still suffering from the shoulder fatigue that sent him to the DL in July. The Rangers lineup blasted Kazmir for five runs in 4.2 innings of work when they faced him earlier this season, primed for another offensive outburst tonight.

The Rangers Cliff Lee carries an ‘ace’ price tag, but he hasn’t been pitching like an ace. Lee has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts. The Angels beat him in his last start against them back in August. Lee got hit hard by the anemic A’s lineup in his most recent start, knocked out of the box after only five innings of work. And with tonight’s start merely a tune-up for Lee, who’s expected to start the Rangers playoff opener next week, don’t be surprised if he gets pulled early here tonight. That leaves ample opportunity for the Angels bats to feast on the Rangers bullpen, getting this game up and over the total. 2* Take the Over.