John Ryan
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
3* graded play on Toronto as they take on Minnesota set to start at 8:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game. Toronto starter Shawn Hill has pitched very well down the stretch posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in six straight starts. Twins starter Liriano has posted a 6.43 ERA and a 1.571 WHIP averaging just 4 2/3 per start over his last three starts. Toronto bullpen is in great shape, but Twins have posted a 5.28 ERA allowing four home runs over their past seven games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-27 making 25.3 units since 1997. Play against home teams in September with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base. Take the Blue Jays.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -150
While Colorado has had St. Louis' number lately, the Rockies are not in good current form. Since making a nice run to get in the playoff picture, the Rockies have lost 4 in a row and 9 of their last 10. They are more than ready for this season to be over with. Meanwhile, St. Louis has pulled it together to win 5 of its last 7. Both of tonight's starters have struggled in recent meetings, but I like the Cardinals' chances with Carpenter on the mound tonight. The former Cy Young winner is 11-4 (14-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.94 at home this season. Meanwhile, Hammel is 3-6 (5-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.33 on the road. Carpenter is also a perfect 3-0 on the ML at home in his career against the Rockies, not allowing more than 1 earned run in any of those starts. Let's cash in with the Cards tonight.
Black Widow
1* on San Diego Padres -170
It's now or never for the Padres, who trail the Giants by 2 games in the NL West and the Braves by 1.5 games for the Wild Card. We'll back San Diego at this price in a must-win situation tonight. San Diego should get their bats going tonight against Tom Gorzellany, who is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 13 earned runs and 24 base runners in 11 innings during this stretch. Jon Garland has been Mr. Reliable all season for San Diego, especially at home where he is 7-5 with a 3.10 ERA in 17 starts. Gorzellany is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Padres. He allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 6.2 innings in a 5-9 loss to San Diego in his only start against the Padres this season back on August 16th. Gorzellany is 1-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 18-4 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Take the Padres on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -125
I'm backing Jon Lester at a nice price tonight. The Boston southpaw is 11-3 with an ERA of just 2.33 on the road this season. And he has been on fire down the stretch, winning each of his last 6 starts while giving up 1 or less runs in 4 of those. Meanwhile, the White Sox have lost 8 of Danks' last 11 starts. Bet Boston.