Pigskin Prophet
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SOUTH CAROLINA at NORTH CAROLINA STATE
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A tough schedule to start the year for South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier, at NC State and at Georgia. This team has not run the football well of late, and there are concerns for 2009 with QB and the offensive line. Junior QB Chris Smelley (14 TDs, 15 INTs) and Tommy Beecher are gone, so it falls on sophomore QB Stephen Garcia (6 TDs, 8 picks, 832 yards). He's got talent, but was suspended! early on for off-the-field problems and is playing behind a weak offensive line. They were getting blasted all year long with little pass protection, plus 6-5 senior TE Jared Cook (573 yards) is the only returnee with significant experience. Spurrier is 11-9 SU, 13-7 ATS on the road at South Carolina, but they run into a very disciplined and up and coming NC State program under coach Tom O'Brien. If momentum is huge, NC State should be fired up for 2009, ending last season on a 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS run. In fact, they have covered 8 straight games. O'Brien likes a balanced offense and his 2008 team averaged 23.5 points, 125 yards rushing and 200 passing. The key is the play of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson, who was sensational with 17 TDs and only one interception! Wilson is a great scrambler, but also injury-prone. He has excellent pass catchers in 6-foot-3 junior WR Owen Spencer (609 yards, 5 TDs), along with 6-foot-4 junior WR Jarvis Williams (432 yards). North Carolina State was last in the ACC last year in pass defense, having too many breakdowns in coverage, something Spurrier would LIKE to attack, but does he have the personnel? The Wolfpack is 7-4 and 6-5 over the total the last two years with an improving pass offense and a suspect defense. Revenge? South Carolina crushed NC State in the opener a year ago, 34-0, with 171 yards rushing, making this a tough call.
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Projected Score: NC State 23, South Carolina 20
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UTAH STATE at UTAH
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New head coach Gary Andersen brings in a spread offense to a Utah State program lacking talent, depth and defense, off a 3-9 season allowing 34.7 ppg. 18 starters are back, with junior QB Diondre Borel running the offense. He's actually very good, with 11 TDs, 11 INTs for a bad team, plus 632 yards rushing to lead the team. He doesn't have any help, however. Utah State's cornerbacks (Chris Randle, Kejon Murphy) are small, which will be exploited here by Utah and coach Kyle Whittingham, off a perfect 13-0 SU, 8-4 ATS 2008 season. Utah averaged 37 points, 168 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc, and 236 passing, but loses their top offensive players.! The key will be speedy junior QB Corbin Louks. He has been an! underst udy to QB Brian Johnson for the past two years; Louks played in 19 games in his first two seasons, primarily in run situations, and he has 4.42 40 speed. The Utah wide out corps should have a big advantage here with David Reed and former JUCO transfer 6-4 WR Aiona Key. Reed (427 yards) averaged a team-high 17.1 yards per catch and scored six touchdowns in his first year at Utah. They allowed 17 ppg last fall. Seven starters return for the defense, led by senior All-America candidate LB Stevenson Sylvester. They smoked Utah State, 58-10, on the road a year ago, with an edge in yards of 446-116. Utah is 31-6 SU, 23-10-1 ATS its last 37 home games!
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Projected Score: Utah 38, Utah State 13
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OREGON at BOISE STATE
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Oregon was a Pac 10 powerhouse last season, rolling up 10 wins and finishing behind USC. Coach Mike Bellotti has stepped down after 14 seasons, taking over for Pat Kilkenny as athletic director. New HC Chip Kelly has been the offensive coordinator, and has done a great job with wide-open, spread offenses. Last season the offense averaged 42 points, 277 yards rushing and 200 passing! They are loaded at quarterback, with junior QB Jeremiah Masoli (13 TDs and 5 picks, 1,744 yards), an outstanding runner, rushing for 718 yards, 5.7 yards per carry. Senior RB LeGarrette Blount pounded out 1,002 yards, ! 17 TDs and averaged 7.3 ypc, but the Ducks lost their best offensive linemen. The defense has new players up front and allowed 28 ppg. Oregon carries a 4-2 run over the total into this one. Boise State Broncos also has a deadly offense, averaging 39 points, 162 yards rushing and 294 passing per game. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore (25 TDs, 10 INTs) had a terrific freshman campaign, throwing for 3,486 yards and 69% completions and has a deep wideout corps, led by senior WR Jeremy Childs (802 yards.) The ground game has new looks, but the defense is experienced and was outstanding, allowing 12 points per game! As usual, they were deadly at home on the blue carpet at 6-0 SU, 2-3 ATS. Since 1999, Boise! is 65-2 SU, 39-17 ATS at home on the blue carpet! A year ago Oregon was a 10-point home favorite and lost 37-32 to Boise, despite 464 yards. 4 turnovers did them in. Oregon trailed 37-6 in the fourth quarter! Boise shredded a better Oregon secondary for 386 yards, so look for them to attack through the air again.
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Projected Score: Boise 30, Oregon 28
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TROY at BOWLING GREEN
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Troy has 12 starters returning to a terrific team that went 8-5 and averaged 33.3 ppg with exceptional balance: 175 yards rushing, 246 passing per contest. They are loaded on offense with senior QB Levi Brown (15 TDs, 3 INTs), junior RB DuJuan Harris (1,077 yards, 5.1 ypc) and junior WR Jerrel Jernigan (868 yards). Remember, this team led LSU 31-3 in the third quarter a year ago! Sure, they lost after running out of gas, but do you think Bowling Green could build up a 4-TD lead at LSU? They also lost at Ohio State, 28-10, as a +20 dog. The Bowling Green Falcons are off a 6-6 SU/8-4 ATS season, but have a new head coach in Dave Clawson. Clawson brings nine years of head coaching experience, most recently at Richmond ! (2004-07) and Fordham (1999-2003). Clawson twice has been named national Division I-AA Coach of the Year. Under center the Falcons return senior QB Tyler Sheehan (20 TDs, 9 picks in 2008), but there are only 10 returning starters plus a new coach. The passing game should be above average with senior WR Freddie Barnes (364 yards), who battled injuries, but in 2007 he had 962 yards, 9 TDs. Senior WR Chris Wright (249 yards) also returns. As good as the offense can be, the defense has been up and down, allowing 23.3 ppg in 2008. Only one starter returns from the defensive line and one linebacker, so there is work to be done. They are 11-7 over the total the last two years with this great offense and suspect 'D'. BG upset Pitt in the 2008 opener, 27-17, but also got bombed by Minnesota (42-17) in their home opener. Troy's offensive balance and defense should be the difference.
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Projected Score: Troy 30, Bowling Green 23
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NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE
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The good news is North Texas has 17 returning starters. The bad news is they were 1-11, allowed 47.6 ppg and were minus-17 in turnovers. In the lone game they won, they led Western Kentucky 45-40 but the Hilltoppers were on the NT one with seconds to go. On the final play, North Texas had! a 97-yard interception return for a misleading 51-40 final. You get the idea: this was a bad team. They have a decent passing game (237 yards pg, 20 ppg), but there is a new QB in sophomore Riley Dodge, the coach's son, who only threw two passes last fall. HC Todd Dodge's team was 102nd in the nation in scoring and dead last in total defense, even though he has a reputation of running successful wide-open spread attacks in high school. This defense was terrible (the fewest points they allowed was 33 and 35). The defense is expected to be better, with a decent LB corps and secondary. Ball State lost it! s best players, including QB Nate Davis (jumping early to the ! NFL), pl us Coach Brady Hoke. First-year head coach Stan Parrish has been offensive coordinator the last four seasons. Sophomore QB Kelly Page is a top recruit who was attracted to this high-flying attack and there is experience in the receiving corps with sophomore WR Briggs Orsbon (813 yards). 5-foot-6 senior RB MiQuale Lewis returns, after running for 1,735 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 25 TDs! Ball State's defense was strong, allowing 18 ppg. They started 12-0, but finished 0-2 SU/ATS, blowing the MAC title game. Still, Ball State is an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road the last three seasons. They should win! , but this offense may need some time to gel.
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Projected Score: Ball State 27, North Texas 17
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
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Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) has more to work on than the defending champs. The Steelers (2-1 SU/ATS) have outstanding depth, with a dominant defense even in preseason. They are 3-0 under the total. QB Ben Roethlisberger and veteran QB Charlie Batch will have to play as young QB Dennis Dixon separated his right shoulder and won't play. Batch will get most of the snaps. Starters will play little (if at all) in Week 4. The offensive line has some injury concerns and looked weak against the Cardinals, a 20-10 win, with 90 yards rushing but just 2.8 yards per rush, 99 yards (5.0 ypc) against Washington, and only 81 in Saturdays 17-0 win over Buffalo. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in preseason, and a sizzling 10-2 under the total. Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) coach John Fox is 18-13 SU/15-15-1 ATS in preseason but winless this season. His QB rotation is Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell. The Panthers have a good offensive line, getting 124 yards, 5.4 yards per carry in the opener, then 98 yards rushing at Miami, and 78 against the Ravens. However, they have lost all three and have injury problems: Carolina was without five key players sitting out with injuries running backs DeAngelo Williams (sore knee) and Jonathan Stewart (sore Achilles), LBs Jon Beason (knee) and Thomas Davis (knee), and safety Charles Godfrey (hand). The defense has been soft up front, allowing 139, 141 and 118 yards rushing in three games. Nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles) has already been lost for the season. The Panthers need a veteran defensive tackle to help fill the void left by Kemoeatu's season-ending injury. The Panthers have one experienced defensive tackle, Damione Lewis, and only one other player at the position with any NFL experience at all. Nick Hayden, who appeared in two games as a rookie last season. Coach Fox has gone easy on the players this camp, but it hasnt helped their health. The Panthers have fumbled 10 times in their three exhibitions, losses against the Giants (six) and Dolphins (four) and Ravens. They've lost five of them. Look for boring game plans with more running than passing by both teams, which might keep the score down.
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Projected Score: Panthers 13, Steelers 10
Jeff Hochman
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Oregon vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -5
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After beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Holiday Bowl, the Ducks had to say goodbye to 12 starters on both sides of the ball. The biggest hit came on the two lines. On the offense, Max Unger, Fenuki Tupou and Mark Lewis signed with NFL teams. And on the defensive line, both starting tackles are gone, as is All-American defensive end Nick Reed. The Broncos are 66-6 SU and 42-18 ATS on the blue smurf turf since 1993. Boise State by 7!
Ben Burns
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
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Each week of the preseason is unique and Week 4 is no exception. Some teams still want to accomplish something and others have already achieved their goals. I believe that the Saints fall into the latter category. With a 3-0 record and having outscored opponents by a 100-28 margin, they've arguably been the most impressive team in the preseason. While New Orleans' perfect record has helped give us some added line value with the Dolphins, it doesn't necessarily mean that the Saints will win this week's game vs. Miami.
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Looking back to last preseason and we find that the Saints entered Week 4 with a 2-1 record and off a double-digit victory. Their Week 4 game came against these same Dolphins and was also played here at New Orleans. What happened? The Saints managed less than 99 yards of offense and lost outright by a score of 14-10.
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Like the Saints, the Dolphins have gone 3-0. Getting a field goal or more to work with, I feel that "taking the points" is the way to go. Consider Miami.
Ron Raymond
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Oregon +4 vs Boise St.
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The Oregon Ducks are 18-1 SU vs. WAC opponents and their only lost was to the Broncos last season in Week 4 at home, when they lost as a -10 point home favorite and the final scored was 37-32. Revenge factor for the Ducks and Boise State is 3-11 vs. Pac 10 Teams lifetime.
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Keys to selection: When Oregon team played as Underdog during the month of September; the Ducks are 12-4-1 (75%) in this role since 1996.
DUNKEL
NCAA
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South Carolina at NC State
The Wolfpack open up the regular season looking to build on their 7-0-1 ATS record in their last 8 contests. NC State is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolfpack favored by 9.Dunkel Pick: NC State (-3 1/2)
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Game 127-128: South Carolina at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 90.665; North Carolina State 99.866
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 9; 49
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (-3 1/2); Over
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Game 129-130: Utah State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 80.805; Utah 100.492
Dunkel Line: Utah by 19 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Utah by 21; 52
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+21); Under
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Game 131-132: Oregon at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 109.912; Boise State 105.588
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 4 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Boise State by 6; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+6); Over
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Game 133-134: Troy at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 88.330; Bowling Green 80.939
Dunkel Line: Troy by 7 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Troy by 6; 59
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-6); Over
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Game 135-136: North Texas at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 61.380; Ball State 77.241
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 16; 55
Vegas Line: Ball State by 17 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+17 1/2); Under
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OTHER MAJOR GAMES:
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (8/17)
North Dakota State at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 73.764; Iowa State 78.457
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2
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Villanova at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 79.510; Temple 77.262
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 2
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Coastal Carolina at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 47.359; Kent State 77.810
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 30 1/2
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Western Illinois at Sam Houston State
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 70.149; Sam Houston State 63.000
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 7
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Eastern Kentucky at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 62.186; Indiana 79.435
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 17
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Illinois State at Eastern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 63.512; Eastern Illinois 53.290
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 10
Carlo Campanella
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +3½
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We cashed on our "Preseason Shocker of the Year" on Saturday, August 22 when Washington upset Pittsburgh, 17-13. Pittsburgh returned from that road loss to pitch a shutout at home, beating Buffalo 17-0 last Saturday. Pittsburgh's defense was awesome, holding the Bills to only 8 first downs, compared to Pittsburgh's 20! Even more impressive was not allowing a 3rd down conversion, as Buffalo was 0-8 on their 3rd down plays. Pittsburgh is now 2-1 SU during Preseason play and expecting this Steelers squad to head into the Regular season with a victory in their final exhibition game as we find them at 3-1 ATS in their final Preseason game the past four years. Must take the points here, knowing that Steelers HC Mike Tomlin likes to build momentum by bringing a win into the Regular season and they own a 3-1 SU & ATS series advantage over Carolina.
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7* Play On Pittsburgh
Craig Trapp
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Oregon vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -4
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Boise State returns almost every key offensive star from an undefeated regular season last year. They did lose some key wide receivers but BSU has always spread the ball around and they have plenty of weapons on the outside to replace there losses. One of the biggest strengths of the offense is a great offensive line who only allowed one sack per game last year. Last year freshman QB Kellen Moore burst onto the scene and dominated his opponents leading his team to the 12th best scoring offense in all of college football. But for once the Broncos have a running game to balance out the high powered air attack. This balance makes them almost impossible to stop.
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Defensively the Broncos were very stout last year only giving up 12 pts per game which ranked them #3 in points scored for all of college football. They do lose a few players off last years team but depth is very good and the drop off will be very minimal.
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Oregon's calling card has been offense in recent years. Last year they averaged over 41 pts per game which was good enough for 7th best in all of college football. Coach Mike Bellotti has moved on to become athletic director and last years offensive coordinator Kelly assumes the head coaching spot. The Ducks will score a ton of points this season even though they lost half there starters. The bigger question last year and this year is the defense. One of the worst defenses in all of football last year they gave up nearly 400 yards per game. The defense will not be much better this year but with such a good offense they don't have to be world beaters to win most games this year.
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BSU has equal talent and a better offense they will cover the -4 here.
PLAYBOOK
South Carolina at NC State
Play: South Carolina +5
The 2009 season kicks off in Raleigh where we’ll find out early if the Wolfpack and ACC Freshman of the Year QB Russell Wilson are the real deal. The linesmakers certainly think so as they installed the hosts as 3.5-point chalk – and the gullible public agreed by pushing the number to NC State -5. Bear in mind that this is the first time State has carried the favorite tag since December of 2007 when they were blown out by Maryland, 37-0. In fact, Tom O’Brien’s crew was the only bowl team that was not favored in any game last season! Their current 0-6 ATS run in their first lined game of the season doesn’t bode well against a Gamecock squad that is 5-1 ATS in their initial underdog role of the season. With the ‘Ol’ Ball Coach’ standing 18-1 SU in season-opening games in his college career and the Pack 0-5 ATS as non-conference favorites of 5 or less points, we’ll gladly grab the points in this false favorite special. PREDICTED FINAL: Gamecocks by 1.
Vernon Croy
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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Rays are 6-1 in David Price's (7-6, 4.63 ERA) last 7 starts when pitching with 4 days rest. The Rays are also a perfect 6-0 in Price's last 6 starts against an AL East division opponent and he has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.79. The Red Sox are just 0-8 in Clay Buchholz's (3-3, 4.38 ERA) last 8 road starts against a team with a winning record and they are just 8-17 in his last 25 starts overall. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Thursday night.
Marc Lawrence
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Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Braves and Marlins conclude their three-game series when Tommy Hanson matches serves with Ricky Nolasco in a mathcup of right-handers at Land Shark Stadium in Miami tonight. Hanson enters tonight's contest with 10 wins in his 15 career team starts. He's also in super-sharp KW form with 4 walks and 27 strikeouts in his last four efforts. Nolasco checks in at 1-3 with a 5.50 ERA in his last 4 team starts and 2-7 with a 5.29 ERA in his career team starts in this series. With that look for Atlanta to come up big here this evening.
SEAN MURPHY
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
PICK: Under 36.5
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The Colts and Bengals have played to a combined 2-4 o/u record so far this preseason, and that's a trend I see continuing on Thursday night in Cincinnati.
These two teams have met in the preseason finale each year dating back to 2003. I'm only concerned with recent results, and to that end, their last five preseason matchups have played to an 0-4-1 o/u record.
Their last three preseason meetings have topped out at 34 points. That result took place last year, and I'll note that it featured a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown from the Colts. Indianapolis managed just over 150 total yards in the game.
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Peyton Manning will sit out the Colts preseason finale for the fourth consecutive year. While there is a slim chance that Carson Palmer could play for the Bengals, it's highly unlikely, and even if he did suit up it would only be for a series or two.
The Bengals did score 21 points without Palmer last week, but had produced a grand total of just 14 points in their first two preseason matchups.
Indianapolis hasn't been able to accomplish much without its offensive starters in the game. Curtis Painter has served as Peyton Manning's backup in the absence of Jim Sorgi, and has yet to find the end zone while throwing a pair of interceptions. He'll find the going tough against an improved Bengals defense right across the board.
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Both teams will play it safe in what amounts to a glorified scrimmage on Thursday. Look for plenty of stalled drives and as the clock runs down, don't be surprised if this one hasn't broken 30. Take the under.
Scott Rickenbach
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Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles +3
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We faded the Eagles right here AGAIN last week (and it AGAIN paid off) as Philadelphia AGAIN lost outright as a favorite. We are a perfect 3-0 right here in this spot in going against the Eagles as we’ve done it in each of their first three preseason games. Once again, in Week Four, we are going to turn to the Eagles game to make some cash. However, unlike the first three weeks of the Preseason, the Eagles are not favored in this spot. As a result, we’ll grab the value with the points (as of Tuesday morning: a full +3) on the road dog Eagles! As noted previously, the Eagles training camp definitely was dealt some tough injuries. First it was linebacker Stewart Bradley (a starter!) and rookie tight end Cornelius Ingram. They were each lost to season-ending ACL injuries. Then, QB Kevin Kolb and defensive end Trent Cole were each lost to injury and were forced to miss some valuable pre-season time. However, in the Week Four game is when these injury factors take on the least significance.
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After the ‘dress rehearsal’ games of Week Three, Week Four is simply a chance for all the back-ups to see some time and we feel the Eagles back-ups are superior to the Jets in this match-up. Additionally, the Jets are coming off of a very tight win over the Giants last week so there is certainly very little motivation for them this week to win, let alone cover this game. Note that Philadelphia has already failed to cover each of their first three preseason games but they were favored in all three. The dogs have been barking loudly in the preseason and we look for more of the same in Week Four. Note that in Thursday games, home favorites are currently on a 6-19-2 ATS run and that includes an ugly 3-5 mark this season. Last Thursday, in Week Three, all three home teams were favored and all three failed to cover the spread with two losing outright. Only one home team won their Thursday game and the Eagles – favored by a TD – only won their game by a single point. Now the Eagles are finally on the right side of the point spread equation and we look for them to be the “barking dog” in this Thursday match-up. Look for the QB rotations to give the Eagles the edge in this one! Consider a small play on the EAGLES on Thursday evening.
Rob Vinciletti
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Oakland Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -2½
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Seattle has several solid positive indicators on their side tonight.Seattle is 7-1 with a posted line of +3 to -3,5-1 with 6 or less days rest,8-2 on grass,4-0 vs less than 500 opponents,10-1 ats last 11 games,6-1 vs Afc West,6-1 when the total is 35.5 to 42 and 4-1 vs the Raiders in preseason matchups the past few years.Oakland was dreadful on Saturday getting destroyed by the Saints.The Raiders are just 1-6 when the total is 35.5 to 42.When installed as an underdog they have lost the last six times and they are 1-5 when playing with 6 or less days of rest.
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
South Carolina at North Carolina St.
South Carolina kicks off its fifth season under coach Steve Spurrier as it travels to across state lines to battle the Wolfpack as these teams open up against each other for the second straight year.
The Gamecocks began 2008 with a 34-0 rout of North Carolina State as a 14-point home favorite which propelled them to a 7-3 start (6-3 ATS). However, South Carolina fell hard from there, losing its final three games by scores of 56-6 (at Florida), 31-14 (at Clemson) and 31-10 (vs. Iowa in the Outback Bowl), never threatening to cover in any of those contests to end the year 7-6 SU and 6-6 ATS.
After getting blitzed at South Carolina to start last season, North Carolina State went on to be the best bet in college football, covering the spread in 10 of its final 11 lined games, including the last eight in a row. The Wolfpack finished the regular season with four consecutive ACC victories (4-0 ATS) before losing to Rutgers 29-23 as a seven-point underdog in the Papajohns.com Bowl.
Both teams return their starting quarterbacks from a year ago. N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,955 yards with a remarkable 17-1 touchdown to interception ratio, and he enters this game having thrown 249 passes without getting picked off. He leads an offense that averaged 23.5 points per game overall last year, while the defense surrendered 26.3 ppg.
South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia took over the starting QB chores in the middle of last season and finished completing just 53.3 percent of his throws for 832 yards with six TDs but eight INTs. The Gamecocks put up 20.8 ppg and defensively, they gave up an average of 15.6 points in the first 10 games but 39.3 in the final three.
In addition to cashing in its final eight contests last year, N.C. State is on a 15-4 ATS roll overall. However, the Wolfpack are otherwise in pointspread slumps of 2-7-1 in non-conference play, 7-19 as a favorite, 3-11 as a home chalk since 2004 and 3-9 in September. Meanwhile, South Carolina also carries negative ATS trends of 5-11-2 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-5 in non-conference play and 0-4 as an underdog, but it is 8-4-1 ATS as a road pup since Spurrier took over.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Gamecocks’ last six roadies, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 6-1 in non-conference play, 5-2 versus the ACC, 5-1-1 in September and 5-2-1 on Thursday. Likewise, N.C. State is on “under” runs of 8-3-2 in non-league action, 10-2-1 as a favorite and 7-1 on Thursday. Finally, last year’s season-opening clash between these schools stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(16) Oregon at (14) Boise State
One of the most intriguing matchups of college football’s opening weekend comes from Bronco Stadium, where No. 14 Boise State looks for its 50th straight regular-season win on the blue turf as it hosts the 16th-ranked Ducks and new coach Chip Kelly.
The Broncos started last season with 12 consecutive wins, including a 37-32 upset victory at Oregon on Sept. 20. But after steamrolling to their sixth consecutive Western Athletic Conference title and climbing to No. 9 in the polls, they failed to gain a berth in a BCS Bowl. Boise State ended up settling for the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, where it fell 17-16 to 11th-ranked TCU, cashing as a three-point underdog to finish the year 12-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS.
In what was expected to be a rebuilding season in 2008, Oregon ended up tied for second place in the Pac-10 standings and finished 10-3 overall (7-6 ATS) in longtime coach Mike Bellotti’s final year. After losing to Boise State, the Ducks won six of their final eight games, including the last four in a row, capped by a 42-31 victory over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl.
In last year’s meeting in Eugene, Ore., Boise State jumped out to a 37-13 lead after three quarters then withstood a furious Ducks rally to hold on for the 37-32 win as a 10½-point road underdog. The game featured 888 yards of total offense and six turnovers (four by Oregon).
The Broncos averaged 37.6 points and 440.8 yards per game last year, and they ranked third in the nation in scoring defense (12.6 ppg allowed). QB Kellen Moore, who threw for 386 yards and three TDs in the win at Oregon, is one of 12 returning starters for Boise State (six offense, six defense). Moore last year completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,486 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs.
Kelly was the offensive coordinator the last two seasons under Bellotti and last year guided a unit that ranked seven nationally in scoring (42 ppg) and second in rushing (280.1 ypg). Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli (57 percent, 1,744 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs; 718 rushing yards, 10 TDs last year) is one of just 10 returning starters for the Ducks.
Boise State cashed in its final three games last year and went 2-2-1 ATS in its five lined home games, but it is 40-17-2 ATS in its last 59 at Bronco Stadium. In fact, the Broncos have won 49 consecutive regular-season games on the Smurf Turf dating to Sept. 8, 2001, though they did lose to Boston College in the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl on their home field. Additionally, Boise is on ATS surges of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10, 5-1 on Thursday and 15-3 when laying 10 points or less.
Oregon is 8-1 in its last nine non-conference games (6-1 ATS in lined action), the lone loss coming to the Broncos last year. Also, under Bellotti, the Ducks were 13-6 ATS in its last 19 as a road ‘dog, and they’re on further pointspread runs of 13-5 in September, 4-1 against the WAC and 14-6 on artificial turf.
The Ducks are on “over” runs of 7-3-2 overall, 16-5-2 in September, 6-0 against the WAC and 6-1-1 on artificial turf. However, the under is 8-3 in Boise State’s last 11 in September and 11-4 in its last 15 non-league games. Finally, last year’s 37-32 shootout easily cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NFL PRESEASON
Philadelphia (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Jets look to continue their Week 4 preseason dominance of the Eagles and avoid their first losing summer since 1996 as these teams close out the exhibition campaign against each other for the ninth straight year.
Philadelphia rallied from deficits off 17-3, 27-13 and 30-20 against the Jaguars a week ago, pulling out a 33-32 victory, never threatening to cover as a seven-point home favorite. Michael Vick made his much-hyped debut in the contest, going 4-for-4 for 19 yards and rushing once for a yard as he played six first-half snaps.
Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and many of his starters will sit this game out. Backup QB Kevin Kolb will start, with Vick going under center late in the first half and starting the second half at quarterback. A.J. Feeley would follow Vick.
The Jets held off the Giants in their annual Week 3 preseason battle on Saturday, eking out a 27-25 victory as a three-point underdog. New York coach Rex Ryan said rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the rest of his starters will play just one series. Backup Kellen Clemens should follow, but expect rookie Erik Ainge to see the bulk of the action.
New York is 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, but it is just 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine at the Meadowlands (including neutral-site games against the Giants). The Jets have also failed to cash in five of their last six when laying points in the preseason.
Not only have the Eagles failed to cover in four straight preseason games, they’re 3-8 ATS in exhibition action since the start of 2007 and they’re 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) as a preseason visitor since 2006. They’ve also dropped seven consecutive Week 4 meetings against the Jets and they’re 2-6 ATS in this preseason rivalry since 2001. Four of those eight battles were decided by three points or less.
Philadelphia has gone over the posted price in six straight preseason games and 10 of its last 11, while New York has topped the total in four straight exhibition outings going back to last year’s 27-20 win over the Eagles. In fact, the over is 4-1 in the last five summer meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and OVER
N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The annual Giants-Patriots Week 4 battle takes place at Gillette Stadium, with New England likely taking the field without Tom Brady.
Despite a strong performance from Eli Manning (12-for-17, 181 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs), New York fell 27-25 to the rival Jets on Saturday as a three-point chalk. Coach Tom Coughlin normally plays his starters, including Manning, for about a quarter in the preseason finale, but said earlier this week that he may alter that plan. He did acknowledge that young QBs Andre Woodson and rookie Rhett Bomar would see significant action, meaning No. 2 passer David Carr may be the odd man out in this contest.
New England got a last-minute field goal to upend Washington 27-24 on Friday, but fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. Brady was sharp in one half of action against the Redskins, going 12-for-19 for 150 yards and two TDs, but on his final pass, he was driven to the ground by Albert Haynesworth and hurt his shoulder. Brady threw in practice this week and appears fine, but coach Bill Belichick usually doesn’t play Brady or the majority of his starters in Week 4.
The Patriots surprisingly waived No. 2 QB Kevin O’Connell this week, leaving the offense for this game in the hands of Andrew Walter (who joined the Pats on Aug. 4) and rookie free agent Brian Hoyer.
New England is now in a 1-6 ATS exhibition slump (2-5 SU) since the start of last summer, going 0-3 SU and ATS at home. Meanwhile, New York failed to get the money the last two weeks and is 3-5 SU and ATS in true preseason road games since Coughlin took over in 2004. However, the Giants are still 6-1 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2006.
These teams have matched up in the preseason finale each of the last four years, with the Giants going 3-1 SU and ATS, including a 19-14 win as a 2½-point home chalk in 2008. The favorite has cashed in each of the last three preseason battles. Going back to 2001, the home team is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in exhibition clashes.
The under is 9-6 in New York’s last 15 summer affairs, but the over is 9-6 in New England’s last 15 (4-2 last six at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)
For the third straight year, the Dolphins and Saints – both of whom are gunning for their first perfect summer this decade – end the exhibition campaign with a battle at the Superdome.
Miami rallied for a 10-6 victory at Tampa Bay last Thursday, covering in a pick-em contest in a game delayed for an hour in the first half because of a lightning storm. Coach Tony Sparano didn’t tip his hand with regard to playing time tonight, but in last year’s preseason finale against the Saints, starting QB Chad Penning threw just four passes, with backup Chad Henne playing the majority of the game. Expect the same tonight, with Henne followed by rookie Pat White.
New Orleans is coming off the most dominating performance of any NFL team this preseason, plastering the Raiders 45-7 as a three-point road chalk. Saints coach Sean Payton, whose team has won its three games by a combined score of 100-28, said his first-string units will probably play just one series. However, QB Drew Brees (14-for-17, 179 yards, 2 TDs in less than a half vs. Oakland) may sit out as he did last year in Week 4. Mark Brunell will either start or replace Brees, but the bulk of the QB playing time will likely go to third-stringer Joey Harrington.
Since beginning the Sparano era with a 17-6 loss to Tampa Bay last year, the Dolphins have now won six consecutive preseason games (6-0 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. That includes a 14-10 win in New Orleans as a one-point road pup to end the 2008 preseason. Since 2007, Miami is on a 4-1 ATS roll as an underdog, and it is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six Week 4 contests, including 3-1 SU and ATS against the Saints.
Although it scored a 17-7 Week 1 win and spread-cover over the Bengals at the Superdome, New Orleans remains just 2-5 SU and ATS at home since Payton took over. The Saints are also 1-5 SU and ATS in preseason finales since 2003.
These teams have met in preseason play seven times since 1999, with the visitor going 6-1 SU and ATS. Also, the underdog cashed in all seven games.
The Saints have topped the total the last two weeks, following a 9-2 “under” run in exhibition play. Miami has stayed low in eight of Miami’s last 10 summer contests, including six of the last seven. Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four Saints-Dolphins preseason battles and 5-1 in New Orleans’ last six preseason finales.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Panthers attempt to avoid their first winless preseason since 2000 as they close out the summer against the Steelers for the seventh straight year.
Ben Roethlisberger returned to action Saturday and completed 15 of 19 passes for 168 yards while the defense allowed just 135 total yards as the Steelers blitzed the Bills 17-0, cashing as a six-point home favorite. If coach Mike Tomlin sticks with his previous Week 4 game plans, Roethlisberger will play very little if at all tonight (he didn’t play against Carolina last summer and threw just two passes in 2007). Look for veteran backup Charlie Batch to see most of the first-half action, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. No. 3 QB Dennis Dixon remains out with an injury.
Carolina’s lackluster preseason continued with Saturday’s 17-13 loss to Baltimore as a 3½-point home favorite, getting outgained 421-281. John Fox said if his starters go at all tonight, they’ll only be on the field for one or two series, though QB Jake Delhomme has sat out the exhibition finale against Pittsburgh each of the last two years. If that trend continues, look for Matt Moore (who didn’t play last week) to get the bulk of the work, with rookie Hunter Cantwell also seeing action. Delhomme’s backup – veteran Josh McCown – probably won’t play.
The Panthers are mired in a 2-8 SU and ATS preseason funk, going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS at home in this span and 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
The Steelers are 3-10 ATS in its last 13 preseason road games, but two of the spread-covers came in Carolina in 2005 and 2007, both outright upsets. In fact, Pittsburgh and Carolina have capped the preseason against one another the last six years, with the Steelers going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four. Also, the ‘dog is 5-0 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five exhibition meetings, with four of those decided by four points or fewer.
The under is 14-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 preseason games (3-0 this year) and 7-1 in its last eight away from home. Also, the under is 5-2 in Carolina’s last seven summer home contests, and the last three preseason clashes between these teams have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (73-60) at Philadelphia (76-54)
The Giants will try to make it two of three at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia when they send ace Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies and veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez (2-0, 4.50).
San Francisco got a gem of an outing from newly acquired Brad Penny on Wednesday, as he tossed eight shutout innings against Philadelphia, giving up just five hits in a 4-0 win. The Giants improved to 6-2 in the last eight matchups with the Phillies, but they are still just 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia.
The Giants are on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 37-17 as favorites and 5-1 against right-handers. Meanwhile, despite Wednesday’s setback, the Phillies remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 37-17 overall, 22-9 at home, 6-1 against the N.L. West, 5-0 as an underdog and 11-6 against right-handed starters.
Lincecum is coming off Friday’s 2-0 home victory over the Rockies in which he scattered eight hits and three walks over eight scoreless innings, striking out eight. The right-hander has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, and the Giants are 5-2 in his last seven starts and 4-1 in his last five as a road chalk.
Lincecum is 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 road outings in 2009 and 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, including a 2-0 victory on Aug. 1 in which he allowed seven hits and a walk in eight shutout innings. He’s allowed six runs (only two earned) in his last three efforts against Philadelphia covering 22 innings (0.82 ERA).
The Phils are a perfect 4-0 when Martinez has taken the hill, but he’s only pitched five innings at home because of rain delays, allowing one run on three hits in starts against the Diamondbacks and Braves. The veteran hurler has only faced the Giants twice in his career, with the last time coming in June 2008 when he allowed three runs in six innings of a 9-6 Mets win.
With Lincecum on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 5-0 versus winning clubs and 6-1 on Wednesday, but four of Lincecum’s five starts against the Phillies have topped the total. As a team, the Giants have stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as favorites and seven of 10 on Thursday. Philadelphia is on several “under” runs as well, including 6-1 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 20-7 against right-handers and 20-8 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
EZWINNERS
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North Texas Mean Green @ Ball State Cardinals
Play: North Texas Mean Green +16
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Ball State had a great year last year behind superstar quarterback Nate Davis, but Davis is gone along with six other offensive starters. The Mean Green only won one game last season, but they return sixteen starters and have a freshman quarterback (the coach’s son) that ran this offense in high school. Take the generous points.